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66 comments:
Might be a kiss of death. Cruz wouldn't take Mitt's endorsement if offered.
Rubio must need money. All the people who gave to Jeb can give to Rubio now. It will be amusing to watch Trump now rip into Rubio. Christie slapped him down in NH. I don't think Rubio can withstand a Trump verbal smackdown.
Althouse is trolling with the "it's already too late" nonsense. Trump simply cannot win one-on-one against any Republican. He will not win the nomination of he stays at around 35% in the states he "wins."
By the way, I actually think it's TOO EARLY for Romney to endorse Rubio. The cascade of Rubio endorsements should continue for awhile before Romney, the GOP standard bearer, publicly surfaces. Rubio ought to win a primary first before Romney blesses his candidacy. At this juncture, it would seem like undue interference.
I have no doubt Romney is working hard behind the scenes to get OTHER Republicans to support Rubio at just the right time.
I agree that folks should get off the sidelines and endorse Rubio. Scott, Haley & Gowdy helped Rubio overtake Cruz in SC.
But Mitt's won't help.
Rubio needs smart-thinking right wingers to recognize he's the best hope in the General - or they risk ending up with Hillary and Amnesty and Obamacare and a liberal Supreme Court majority going after Heller.
I say this without a negative attack on Trump or Cruz - each of whom I would gladly support in November if they capture the nomination.
The ONLY question though is which of the 3 is best suited to defeat Hillary in the Fall.
If Mitt wants to support Rubio he needs to not say so.
Bay Area Guy - My assessment of candidates most like to do what the BMDs want on amnesty, in order:
1) Sanders
2) Clinton
3) Rubio
4) Trump
5) Cruz
"kiss of death" - my first thought too.
What next? Endorsements from McCain, Dole, Ford, Gerald Ford's children?
False alarm
Cruz and Trump supporters won't back Rubio....Rubio supporters and most Trump supporters will support Cruz....
It is time for Rubio to drop out and endorse Cruz.
For the dopes who think that Trump's popularity will stall at 35%, I give you this nice article put together by Bill Quick at Daily Pundit. He collects all of the talk of "ceilings" going back several months to present day. The talking heads and delusional Republicans who think Trump has reached his final heights have been wrong EVERY TIME. They might not continue to be wrong but that's certainly the way to bet.
http://www.dailypundit.com/?p=116737
@Gahrie
Cruz and Trump supporters won't back Rubio
I don't think this is true. Some will, some won't - the question is how many.
However, if it is true, these folks should self-identify as Rubes, doing exactly what Hillary wants them to do.
Charles Remes:
Trump's negatives are in the 60s. Maybe inevitability would lead to greater than 40% but that assumes too much.
How does Trump get votes from those who disapprove of him and his candidacy?
Where will Bush's voters go? Certainly not to Trump. My guess, most go to Rubio. Since he is the most like Bush. Momentum seems to be going in Rubio's direction more so than Cruz. So, the game is still wide open. Only 5% of the delegates have been allocated. And the reason Trump is gaining traction is beause so many people are in the race. But as others drop out, will he maintain that lead? i don't think so. I hope not.
Bay Area Guy:
No rube here. But I see no positive reason to support Rubio. You offer none.
I understand the negative reasons. And they amount to "prolong the inevitable" and I am unpersuaded.
Illegal immigration remains Rubio's Achilles heel.
"I would get people out and then have an expedited way of getting them back into the country so they can be legal…. A lot of these people are helping us … and sometimes it’s jobs a citizen of the United States doesn’t want to do. I want to move ’em out, and we’re going to move ’em back in and let them be legal" See, he talks tough, but quotes like this show you just can't trust him.
And then there are supporters like this: "The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally. He’s been so clear about that and I know the liberal media wants to misconstrue it, but it's deporting them and letting them back legally." So now he veers from enforcement to touchback? So he wants to reward illegals over people who have been waiting in line, and bring back all the competition for American workers that he now supposedly decries?
Cruz has a lower ceiling than Trump. People just don't like the guy. Trump beat Cruz among evangelicals in South Carolina. So there is no path for Cruz to the nomination. He should drop out if he is not deluded and has any self respect. The Republican Party has very few limited government conservatives and Cruz is a bad messenger for them because he comes across as such a smarmy jerk.
I don't think anyone really cares about Romney anymore. It's a big meh.
Mormon Money talks. Rubio BS walks.
When will the layers ever learn that leadership is not how much money you have, it is what it is sans illusions bought in negative slanders they order spread like a plague.
What are the takes of TheCrackEmcee, Shouting Thomas and Cedarford, traditionalguy?
Ugh... Rubio is less intelligent than Cruz and not nearly as good an orator.
Time for Rubio and Cruz to make a deal, in order to: 1. stop Trump; 2. unify the party (minus mad-as-hell Trumpkins, who can take out their wrath by voting for Hillary! to teach the "elites" a lesson); 3. run as first majority-minority ticket; 4. immunize each other on illegal immigration; 5 actually offer a sorta-kinda conservative option in the general; and 6. as opposed to crushing GOP chances, and causing massive down-ticket losses, win in FL, OH, and VA.
Now the stilted are acting jilted!
Romney endorsed Rubio? Sorry Marco, and you were having such a great day otherwise...
Layers= establishment GOP owners of the Party that gave us Bushes all the way down.
"The Republican Party has very few limited government conservatives ..."
Yeah, it's depressing.
"... and Cruz is a bad messenger for them because he comes across as such a smarmy jerk."
Yeah, it's depressing.
Birkel wrote:
Trump's negatives are in the 60s. Maybe inevitability would lead to greater than 40% but that assumes too much.
How does Trump get votes from those who disapprove of him and his candidacy?
Well, here's an aggregation of disapproval ratings done by Huffington Post that may shed some light on this:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating
His disapproval ratings were higher in the past and have come down, so clearly he is capable of converting some nay-sayers to supporters. But it's also clear that those disapproval ratings have flat-lined over the past several months even while Trump's support has continued to grow.
So it's now (finally!?!) possible that Trump has reached his ceiling based on this factor. Or, he may start converting more people into supporters. We can't read the future but the nay-sayers have been wrong for most of a year. I believe they will continue to be wrong and Trump's support will continue to increase well past what his "disapproval rating" would suggest.
Blogger Charles Remes said...For the dopes who think that Trump's popularity will stall at 35%, I give you this nice article put together by Bill Quick at Daily Pundit...
Dopes? It is an absolute mathematical certainty that Trump has a ceiling, and it is an absolute logical certainty that at some point that ceiling will be hit. The question is when and at what level. It's a data point that people have made predictions in the past and been wrong, but that's all it is. It tells you virtually nothing about whether the people predicting that Trump is at the ceiling now are wrong.
Cruz a great orator? His post primary speech last night bored the crowd. His fervent supporters could barely be inspired to clap at the predetermined applause points. Plus he drones on way too long. Rubio is by far the best speaker of the GOP bunch.
Sebastian:
3. run as first majority-minority ticket
I love this. Quintessential GOPe-iness. Run two 100% white guys. Swoon about your first majority-minority ticket!
You know what would be awesome? If all those rumors about Rubio being gay were true. The GOPe could kill in the general on a platform of "Dems are the real homophobes!"
4. immunize each other on illegal immigration...
Actually I think this one should go right before the vertical ellipses followed by "Profit!".
The recent CBS (I think) poll said 39% of GOP voters would never vote for Trump. The NBC poll had Trump losing by 15+% head-to-head to Cruz or Rubio. The question is will either Cruz or Rubio drop out in time to beat Trump, assuming the dead men walking (Carson and Kasich) also drop out.
Carson at this point is being propped by his handlers as a fund-raising machine, sucking 3rd party boiler room generated contributions from old GOP voters. As long as that spigot is open, and he is invited to debates, Carson unfortunately will stay in.
Romney endorsement = Kiss of Death
Marco is holding a one-way ticket to Palookaville.
"The question is will either Cruz or Rubio drop out in time to beat Trump, assuming the dead men walking (Carson and Kasich) also drop out."
Laura Ingraham had an interesting comment today. Trump has not yet gone after Rubio. What about a Trump/Rubio fusion ticket ?
That might be the end game with Cruz to the Supreme Court.
"Events, dear boy, events."
These primaries start way too early; a political eternity before the actual election, and we have no idea of what kind of a president we might want to elect by that time.
Charles Remes:
I invited you to assume too much and you performed well.
tim maguire wrote:
Dopes? It is an absolute mathematical certainty that Trump has a ceiling, and it is an absolute logical certainty that at some point that ceiling will be hit. The question is when and at what level. It's a data point that people have made predictions in the past and been wrong, but that's all it is. It tells you virtually nothing about whether the people predicting that Trump is at the ceiling now are wrong.
The people who have been consistently wrong for months have no credibility remaining for their latest prognostications. So, it most certainly tells us how much we should value their current bloviating. That is, not at all.
Talk of "logical certainty" and "absolute mathematic certainty" concerning Trump's ceiling is amusing in the context of delegates, the American electorate, and the Electoral College. Trump just needs to tip the scales enough and all of those aforementioned items fall his way.
Maybe Trump has a ceiling as low as 55% of the electorate. If that's the case, then he is the President. There's your certainty.
Birkel wrote:
I invited you to assume too much and you performed well.
Thanks, Birkel. Your post has so little content that I had to add some of my own to make it more valuable to the Althouse contingent.
"Quintessential GOPe-iness" No. Just taking identity politics as it comes. Dealing with the real world. In which winning matters more than beating the "GOPe."
And sure, Rubio/Cruz or Cruz/Rubio would be quintessential GOPe-iness, since as we all know the GOPe just loves Cruz. Evidence and logic demand a vote for Trump.
"What about a Trump/Rubio fusion ticket ?"
Maybe, but if you add all the people who will "never vote for Trump" to all the people who will "never vote for Rubio" you probably get to 150%.
Birkel, I apologize for the childish snipe. I'm a long-time lurker here at Althouse and think I prefer that. I decloak only a few times a year to share my opinion but I enjoy the blog more as a passive observer. I'm going back to that for a while.
No need to apologize, in the least.
Today, as I have for decades, I put on my big boy pants.
Besides, there is something wrong about this "horse race" media circus.
The presidency should be a duty to fulfill, not an opportunity for graft, or whatever it is the media thinks is so desirable about it.
The oh so clever 'this hurts Rubio' comments are foolish. Romney is one of the few got leaders well thought of by voters in general. In a primary cycle that looks childish he comes across as a adult.
Sebastian wrote:
The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally. He’s been so clear about that and I know the liberal media wants to misconstrue it, but it's deporting them and letting them back legally."
I could be wrong, but that's not just a supporter. That's his own son articulating Trumps position on the deporation question. He is reiterating what Trump already said.
So take it from the horse's mouth, this is where Trump actually is on immigration. He wants to deport everyone (unrealistic) but then wants to setup an expedited process (unrealistic) whereby those same formerly illegals get to JUMP THE LINE and come back as legals.
Do Trumpbots even know what Trump is arguing?
Prediction #1 - Trump offers Cruz the VP slot on the ticket. Cruz takes it on the condition that Trump nominate him for the next available SCOTUS opening. Trump cant then appoint whomever he wants to finish out the VP term. The fault with this prediction is that even Cruz has to know that there are Republican senators who despise him enough to block his nomination. So, prediction #2 - Cruz drops out of the race on Trump's promise to make him Attorney General. Cruz does not have to sign an undated letter of resignation.
Nevada has a lot of Mormons. When I caucused there four years ago the whole room was for Mitt. Someone (whoever started the endorsement rumor) thinks that if Romney speaks soon he'll boost Rubio in NV.
Trumpbots who are conservatives and not just being aholes for the sake of being aholes. What is your position on health care. Should it be market based, or should it be universal health care? Is Bernie Sanders right or are the republicans right? If Trump pushes universal health care are you going to get mad at Republicans if they DON'T go along with it?
What was your issue with Obamacare? THat it WASN"T universal health care? Because that's Trumps problem with it.
I just want to know what you expect "establishment" Republicans to do. Do you want them to be an opposition party to the Republican president? and have the democrats support Trump on his push for universal health care? You're going to get pissed at them for failing you, regardless. But you will be in the unique position of being mad at them for not supporting the far left democratic position, or for caving and supporting something you don't want because the president is a Republican.
or is the real issue with Obamcare, that you just wanted Republicans to be the ones to bring it to you? I'll say this much about Obama. At least he didn't want to jettison Obamacare and put in universal health care.
Presidential politics has morphed into NASCAR. The Raceteam owners see themselves as the players buying the biggest motors and buying themselves a young up and coming driver.
Jacksonian Democracy is what they thought their money for negative ads could do away with.
But it's back with General Trump Riding a horse towards his next target which is Sam Houston's Texas with its Mexican border begging for a Wall builder. Cruz will need God's mercy, because Trump is fresh out
If only Shouting Thomas, TheCrackEmcee and Cedarford would comment, this thread could be complete.
"Do Trumpbots even know what Trump is arguing?"
But, but, but, ...Wall!
@jr565: "I could be wrong, but that's not just a supporter. That's his own son articulating Trumps position on the deporation question. He is reiterating what Trump already said. So take it from the horse's mouth, this is where Trump actually is on immigration. He wants to deport everyone (unrealistic) but then wants to setup an expedited process (unrealistic) whereby those same formerly illegals get to JUMP THE LINE and come back as legals. Do Trumpbots even know what Trump is arguing?"
You are making my point . . . Also appreciate your 11:53 comment. Unfortunately, incoherence is a selling point in this cycle.
The math is bad for Ted Cruz.
"Quintessential GOPe-iness" No. Just taking identity politics as it comes. Dealing with the real world. In which winning matters more than beating the "GOPe."
He sniffed, sniffily. On Mondays you're excoriating the straying for their lack of principle. ("Not a Real Conservative!";"It's dreadful how the Dems are tearing this country apart with identity politics, we're better than that!"). On Tuesdays you're excoriating the straying for not being sufficiently flexible. (The Dems paint us as the racist party? We'll show them! Look at all these people of color we have! We speak jive, too!")
In which winning matters more than beating the "GOPe."
Beating the GOPe isn't winning, but it's part of a longer-term game for winning at something rather more important and existential than what apparently interests you. You guys haven't noticed the ever diminishing marginal returns on things like SC nominations (your favorite non-longer-scary scare point), because you're completely oblivious to the large-scale shifts all around you.
And sure, Rubio/Cruz or Cruz/Rubio would be quintessential GOPe-iness, since as we all know the GOPe just loves Cruz. Evidence and logic demand a vote for Trump.
There is nothing GOPe-ier than letting the lefties set all the terms of the debate, and nothing exemplifies this as much GOPe-ers wetting themselves about how "diverse" they are. It's pathetic.
That's the joke, Sebastian, not that Cruz isn't the tool of choice. Putting up two 100% white guys and crowing about your "majority-minority" ticket is, too, funny. Your po-faced response to being razzed about it is funny. Your sniffy little non-sequitur about "evidence and logic demand a vote for Trump" is funny, too.
The GOPe is making it easy. On one hand you got Rubio, Karl Rove, Romney, McCain and Dole. OTOH, Trump and Palin.
The status quo vs. making America great again.
"Illegal immigration remains Rubio's Achilles heel."
That's just one of them. On foreign policy he's another McCain. On every other issue, including trade, he's McConnell's rent boy.
He's GOPe all the way. So if want 4 years of Amnesty and the same old same old - vote Rubio.
Yes! By all means, bring out Palin again. She will be such a huuuuuge help to Trump! We need to see lots more of Palin, you betcha!
Did Rubio also receive the Candy Crowley endorsement?
Agree with Chickel. A Romney endorsement is not necessarily a good thing. Romney should just stay neutral.
It's been too late since before New Hampshire. Christie may not have mauled Rubio a la "Revenant" in the pre-primary debate, but he definitely wounded Rubio. Likewise Jeb Bush has taken a bunch of gratuitous swipes at Rubio that seemed to have drawn blood. I don't think Rubio can beat Cruz for the nomination, and he for sure can't beat Trump while dribbling blood from a bunch of wounds.
This is why Reagan's "eleventh commandment" is still so important.
If the establishment wants to stop Trump, and with a -27 net unfavorable rating among independents that might not be a bad idea, then perhaps they need to coalesce behind (gulp!) Cruz.
I'll remind folks: those that mention that 60 or 70% voted against Trump...those same are voting against the other candidates also.
Sebastion:
He wants to deport everyone (unrealistic) but then wants to setup an expedited process (unrealistic) whereby those same formerly illegals get to JUMP THE LINE and come back as legals.
If I was a politician I would advocate the same exact policy. Here's why. The goal is to deport 30 million infiltrators. This is going to be controversial, so I deflate the controversy by advocating that many can be readmitted through a vigorous screening process and after the deportations are completed I just never get around to setting that process up. This is simply an inversion of the gambit played by the open borders people who promise to build a wall after Amnesty is passed, Amnesty always gets passed and the wall never gets built.
After we've deported all those infiltrators and people get used to a better America, the call to readmit those 30 million will be pretty weak.
Willard and Marco have a common thread in their ancestry - Romney's dad George was born in an LDS colony in Mexico and Marco's parents came to the U.S. from Cuba long before Castro's revolution. Foreign yes, controversial no.
Does anyone care- one way or another about endorsements? It didn't help Rubio in SC according to exit polls to have been endorsed by Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott - 72% said "no influence."
"After we've deported all those infiltrators and people get used to a better America, the call to readmit those 30 million will be pretty weak." I'm sure the "call" will be weak, and I'm sure few of Trump's actual supporters want the "infiltrators" back at all, but of course Mr. Can-Do Trump's policy of letting them back in will prevail. Or are you doubting his stated commitment to amnesty? (And assuming, if only for political entertainment's sake, that we get all the infiltrators out, why wouldn't the Dems go along with Trump to get them back? Trump gets his wish and they get their future voters. What's not to like?)
If only Shouting Thomas(it's the queers, queers, queers), TheCrackEmcee (It's the New Age white French women murderers) and Cedarford (it's the Jooos, jooos, Jooos)would comment, this thread could be complete.
There, it's covered.
Marco: Hey, amigo!
Ted: Who are you calling friend, muchacho? Speak English.
Marco: Is Canadian OK?
Ted: [long string of Spanish curse words.]
Marco: Well said. Now, look, you and I are screwing ourselves by splitting the anti-Trump vote. I don't want to spend my life in the US Senate, and I don't think you do, either.
Ted: Keep talking.
Marco: I don't know what Trump's people have offered you to drop out and support him . . . .
Ted: You should know I'd never make a deal like that.
Marco: Because you don't trust that son of a bitch anymore than I do.
Ted: "New York values".
Marco: Yeah, right. That'll be in the next edition of Bartlett's Familiar Quotations.
Ted: I thought that would play better in South Carolina than it did.
Marco: So we're agreed we can't trust Trump to make a deal. Can we trust each other?
Ted: Probably not. But tell me what you're proposing.
Marco: Don't call it a proposal. Call it an idea.
Ted: OK. What's the idea.
Marco: Suppose we continue the battle against each other for second place through Super Tuesday.
Ted: I'm going to be fighting Trump for first place.
Marco: Me too. Are we through with the bull shit for the moment?
Ted: You mean la pendejadas?
Marco: It's hard to understand your Spanish with that Canadian accent.
Ted: Get to the point.
Marco: OK. Suppose that after Super Tuesday you and I look at where we stand in the delegate count. Whichever of us is behind, will withdraw and endorse the other. The remaining one of us will then defeat Trump in the remaining primaries and caucuses and get the nomination. Whichever of us it is, will then win the presidency against either Hillary or Bernie or Biden.
Ted: And if the winner is me, what do I have to give you, once I'm elected?
Marco: Nothing. Nada.
Ted: Nothing?
Marco: Nothing. For two reasons. One, if you give me anything, it will ruin both our reputations. It will be "bargain and corruption" all over again. Do you get the historical reference?
Ted: Of course. And if you're the winner, you don't do anything for me, for the same reason, right?
Marco: That's correct.
Ted: We ought to think about this and talk again.
Marco: But it has to be before Super Tuesday.
Ted: JUST before.
Marco: Fine. Your polling's no better than mine.
Ted: Hasta luego, then, amigo.
Marco: Hasta la vista.
Rubio is a complete lightweight without an original thought in he wee head. The man shifts his positions more than [fill in the blank].
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