Althouse: "The average strike zone size increased by 16 square inches in 2014 over 2013, growing the zone to a robust 40 square inches larger than just five seasons prior...."

October 16, 2014

"The average strike zone size increased by 16 square inches in 2014 over 2013, growing the zone to a robust 40 square inches larger than just five seasons prior...."

"If you like low-scoring pitching duels, you probably love this type of change to the strike zone. The sentiment that I get, though, is that most people would prefer more offense in the game...."

Lots of numbers at the link. Obviously, everyone wants the games to be more exciting, and I would assume that if there's a consistent trend of enlarging the strike zone, it's because it's working to make games more exciting, not the other way around. The most boring thing may be long at bats, and if batters can wait for the pitch they like, while accumulating balls and accepting the second-best option of walking, that's more boring than a quick strike-out. And if the threat of striking out increases, the batters who survive will adapt and find ways to put the ball in play. I'm saying that as someone who finds home runs less interesting than all the other ways to score.

27 comments:

donald said...: Ok, I'm an expert on this.

The strike zone has not been expanded. It is the same as it has ever been. Umpires have been trained to start calling the entire strike zone.

It's really that simple.; 10/16/14, 7:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Re: "I'm saying that as someone who finds home runs less interesting than all the other ways to score."

I'm sure there is a gender/sexuality designation for that.; 10/16/14, 7:58 AM
Henry said...: This is a good article as far as it goes, but it's historically myopic.

Here's a useful history of strike zone rules.

Consider the huge difference between the 1950 rule, the 1963 rule, and the 1969.

1950 - Armpits
1963 - Shoulders
1969 - Armpits

Students of baseball know that the 1960s was a era of incredibly low-scoring baseball. When statisticians compare the low-scoring averages of 2014 to the past, they go back to the 1970s, not the 1960s.

Historically, 2014 is kind of average, as Michael Bein's incredibly useful series of charts demonstrates.

Personally, the one change I would like to make to baseball, which would definitely boost scoring, is the elimination of the pitcher's mound. That simply makes no sense to me. Why muck up a beautiful geometric field with a lump of dirt? It's the major league equivalent of a kicking tee.; 10/16/14, 8:02 AM
Strategist said...: Althouse,

I do not want the game to be more exciting.

I want the game to be slow. And deliberate.

I want the pitcher and the batter to take their time.

Deliberating. Thinking.

I want to sit in the bleachers.

And watch the drama unfold.

Slowly.

Anticipating.

No whistles being blown.

No commercial interruptions.

Turn off the damn scoreboards.

And blinking lights.

No cheerleaders.

Just a warm, sunny afternoon.

A beer. A hotdog.

And I'm good to go.; 10/16/14, 8:05 AM
Henry said...: One of the most interesting components to the rule -- and one very peculiar to baseball -- is that the strike zone is relative to the batter:

The umpire shall determine the Strike Zone according to the batter's usual stance when he swings at a pitch.

Imagine if the height of a soccer goal was defined by "the goalie's reach when he holds his arms above his head."

The only thing like it I can think of are various penalty rules in football for hitting below the knee or above the shoulders.; 10/16/14, 8:06 AM
rhhardin said...: The strike zone size hasn't appeared in dating analogies.

Unlike first base, second base, third base and home.

Or being on the mound.; 10/16/14, 8:09 AM
rhhardin said...: Baseball is a radio game, and it hardly matters what the strike zone is.

You want long periods of announcer drone, and occasional activity.

Who's playing and who wins likewise doesn't matter.

You're doing something else anyway.; 10/16/14, 8:12 AM
rhhardin said...: Cavell has a classic description of baseball rules and what interest they serve,
here

Back up one page and start there.; 10/16/14, 8:16 AM
Anonymous said...: The Vagina as Fascist State defines society's strike zone: it chooses who gets to freely walk to base, and who will be looking at their called third strike.

The Vagina as Fascist State has come to power by an endless series of bunts, advancing their runners one by one; no matter the accuracy of the throw, they are always judged to be safe at home.

For opposing batters the strike zone is never neutral: it is decided by The Vagina as Fascist State in relationship to the evaluation of the batter's strength: the home run hitter is to be neutralized before the first swing. With this in mind, is it not unreasonable for men to pick another sport entirely? To choose football, where anal sex is a hard pass to the tight end, with the touchdown to be celebrated by a sharp spike in the end-zone? The Vagina as Fascist State: always off-sides.; 10/16/14, 8:20 AM
Curious George said...: "I'm saying that as someone who finds home runs less interesting than all the other ways to score."

Me too. 2005 White Sox. This year's Royals.

Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in. Lot's of hit and runs and base stealing.

That's baseball.; 10/16/14, 8:23 AM
Curious George said...: Of course the Brewers didn't notice the change, as they swing at everything anyway. Which is why they are watching the playoffs, instead of playing in them.; 10/16/14, 8:25 AM
Curious George said...: Of course the Brewers didn't notice the change, as they swing at everything anyway. Which is why they are watching the playoffs, instead of playing in them.; 10/16/14, 8:25 AM
Brando said...: There are a lot of things we could do to increase the offense in baseball, creating more "action" and "excitement":

1) Designated hitters? Just have the entire lineup be designated hitters--like in football, you'd have offensive and defensive specialists.

2) Give batters a fourth strike. Oh, and change the name from "strike" because it makes no sense to call not hitting anything a "strike".

3) Bigger outfields, but shorter base paths.

4) Move the pitcher's mound back a few feet.

5) Four outs per half inning, rather than three.

Of course, increasing offense changes the character of the game--part of what makes it unique and interesting is the duel between pitchers and batters, and the tension and low scoring can be a part of that. Too much tinkering and it becomes something different entirely, and it may take something special away from the game.; 10/16/14, 8:30 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: You know what I don't like?

When the umpire calls a third strike to end the game. I feel the umpire should give the batter an opportunity to make the last out.

It could be sort of an unspoken rule. Unsaid things, as they are called here.; 10/16/14, 9:10 AM
Unknown said...: "I would assume that if there's a consistent trend of enlarging the strike zone, it's because it's working to make games more exciting, not the other way around."

The trend exists not because it's working to make the game more exciting, but due to umpires reacting to PitchF/X technology - the little box that shows up on your television screen that outlines the strike zone and shows pithces in relation to it. For several years umpires have been evaluated based on their consistency on calling balls/strikes within this zone. As a result the strike zone has expanded -- primarily downward. Low strikes are now consistently called strikes, where previously they would have been balls.

The question is why still have homeplate umpires at all.; 10/16/14, 9:26 AM
Richard Lawrence Cohen said...: Agreed about long at-bats, but they become interesting again around the eighth pitch, when you start rooting for the batter to keep fouling them off forever.

Get to first on a walk, to second on a hit and run, steal third, score on an opposite-field line drive single. That's baseball.; 10/16/14, 10:06 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Expanding the strike zone decreases offense - as indicated both by common sense ans the statistics from 2014.; 10/16/14, 10:23 AM
mikee said...: A 20 second clock between pitches, with the runner taking a base if he doesn't get a pitch by then, would make the game endurable to viewers, compared to the one pitch per minute or two (or so it seems whenever I try to watch) we have now.; 10/16/14, 10:46 AM
HoodlumDoodlum said...: Ann Althouse said...The most boring thing may be long at bats, and if batters can wait for the pitch they like, while accumulating balls and accepting the second-best option of walking, that's more boring than a quick strike-out.

Maybe, but if a batter has to defend a larger strike zone he will swing at more pitches and foul more off...which could lead to a much longer at bat, right? An analysis I heard on the radio a few weeks ago looked at the size of foul territory in old parks vs. new parks (newer parks typically have smaller foul areas because they have more seats much closer to the field) blamed longer at bats in part on increased #s of foul balls (many of which would have been catchable in older parks).; 10/16/14, 11:07 AM
Squints said...: Incessant home runs indeed become boring.

The timely home run, on the other hand, is one of the most exciting plays in the game.; 10/16/14, 11:38 AM
Henry said...: Maybe, but if a batter has to defend a larger strike zone he will swing at more pitches and foul more off...

I can't see the logic here, but I will say that perhaps the most disappointing play in baseball is the called third strike -- especially at a key moment in the game.

Unfortunately, however big you make a strike zone, pitchers will insist on pitching to the edges of the strike zone (bottom outer, upper inner), leading to the same high-walk, high-strikeout outcome we have currently.

What we need is a tri-part strike zone -- a strike area roughly like what we had a few years ago, a ball area roughly like what we have now, and a do-over area in between. The do-over area will be a pair of stripes roughly the thickness of the batter's knees at the bottom, the distance from the batter's armpits to shoulders at the top, and the thickness of the umpire's squint on the edges.

To handle the extra non-strike, non-ball calling duties of the do-over area, a second umpire will stand on a small ladder behind the first umpire, except in the American League where the do-overs will be called by the official scorer watching from the press booth.

To speed up the game that this rule will dramatically slow, all players will be required to run out their walks the way Pete Rose used to. Any player that stops to watch his own home run will be ejected.; 10/16/14, 11:49 AM
HoodlumDoodlum said...: Henry said...I can't see the logic here, but I will say that perhaps the most disappointing play in baseball is the called third strike -- especially at a key moment in the game.

Unfortunately, however big you make a strike zone, pitchers will insist on pitching to the edges of the strike zone (bottom outer, upper inner), leading to the same high-walk, high-strikeout outcome we have currently.

I agree pitchers will pitch to the margins of any given strike zone and thus the size of the strike zone will have little influence on the proportion of pitches thrown near the edges. However it's not true that all pitch locations are equally likely to result in a foul ball--the further away from the center/plate you go the tougher it is to keep the ball in play if you make contact (I think, but I could be wrong). That's the basis of my assertion that a larger strike zone may lead to more foul balls.; 10/16/14, 12:35 PM
HoodlumDoodlum said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/16/14, 12:50 PM
HoodlumDoodlum said...: Lem said...
You know what I don't like?

When the umpire calls a third strike to end the game. I feel the umpire should give the batter an opportunity to make the last out.

It could be sort of an unspoken rule. Unsaid things, as they are called here.

As a Braves fan I will just say 1997 NLCS game 5 and leave it at that.; 10/16/14, 12:50 PM
rcocean said...: A sure way to make Baseball more exciting - shotguns.

Every outfielder will be given a choice of mitt or 12 gauge. Hitting the ball in the air will be considered an out and the infield fly rule be in effect.; 10/16/14, 8:24 PM
rcocean said...: Other suggestions:

-SS will wear a ball and chain
-The opposing coaches will be allowed to lob firecrackers at the opposing players.; 10/16/14, 8:27 PM
mccullough said...: The strike zone is lowering. This favors guys like Mike Trout who are terrific low ball hitters.

All home runs are not created equal. Home runs by average hitters are dull. Home runs by great hitters astonish. Miguel Cabrera is a wonder to watch at the plate.; 10/16/14, 11:31 PM