"He said that when he was starting his business in the late 70s, his accountant told him that if he just invests X percentage of his monthly income in an IRA, he will be a millionaire by the time he retires. My dad said to him, 'Bullshit. There is no way that the powers-that-be will let a poor schlub like me become a millionaire.' He was right, and will work until the day he dies."
I'm cherry-picking from a big discussion because of the way it's written, not to endorse the viewpoint.
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৮০টি মন্তব্য:
Liberals understand markets like normal people understand Martians.
Not at all.
He was right
Indeed. Not investing will always return 0%.
There are a ton of articles right now trying to get rid of 401ks/convince people not to invest.
Sounds like the whip smart dad is an idiot.
There is no way that the powers-that-be will let a poor schlub like me become a millionaire.
I'm shocked that someone with that level of economic literacy won't become a millionaire.
Obama: Not only you didn't build that, you CAN'T build that. Shove it, bitter clingers. Mwa ha ha ha ha...
Near closing time the last woman at the bar begins to look good and attracts the men.
As the American economic productivity withers away our middle class American's 401K accounts are starting to attract the monetary crooks in DC and London and Hong Kong together with their paid for politicians.
George Soros was just the pioneer among the New World Order of monetary Gangsters.
Dad sounds like a union man.
The comment following the quoted one says pretty much everything I wanted to say about it:
It would take a risibly small amount invested each month since the 1970s into an index fund to yield a million in today's dollars. Anyone who invested for the long term (i.e., didn't panic sell on the lows or try to play clever market-timing games) from the 1970s onwards would be hugely ahead of the game at this point, regardless of the Great Recession.
I love this response to the "whip smart dad"
Yet the math says otherwise. The reason poor schlubs remain poor schlubs when they have the means to invest is this type of thinking.
If you'd invested a single penny at 5% in 0 AD today it would be worth, let's see, 10^40 dollars (1 with 40 zeroes after it).
It's amazing that nobody did that. You'd think somebody would have.
The actual constraint is that the number of retirees has to balance with the number of workers supplying their goods and services. The retirement age will rise or fall to keep that balance.
The return on investment in turn will rise and fall to enforce the retirement capability at various ages.
The balance is between what standard of living you'll accept in retirement, and the nonretired workers' willingness to part with wages to support that.
That white on blue font is a killer in trying to read through the discussion.
A person who assumes that he will never be able to retire makes decisions that lead to that result.
Is this a self-fulfilling prophecy? Or an accurate assessment of the future?
As of 2011, the 25 year avg annual returns of the S&P 500 was 9.28%
The stupidity of the "whip smart dad" can't be emphasized enough.
That is pure bullsh*t, the stock market is a great way to make money over time. I've been in the market for about 31 years and while I haven't made the money I shoulda woulda coulda have, I've made more than I could anywhere else.
If people had been left to keep their FICA taxes and invested them in the markets, the rate of return would have been far greater than Social Security.
That risk is mitigated through the first level of social organization: family. A father and mother invest in the well-being of their children, and the children return the favor when their parents require assistance. This the natural cycle of life.
It is compromised when people place their priority on fulfilling dreams of material, physical, and ego instant (or immediate) gratification. The dysfunctional outcome is exacerbated when they are promised anything and everything without perceived consequences. This is the source for dissociation of risk, and it is the cause of progressive corruption.
As of 2011, the 25 year avg annual returns of the S&P 500 was 9.28%
We did the math using average, real rates in my finance class. Maybe his financial advisor should have done this with the guy, but if you have an emotional response rather than a mathematical one you are going to have a problem.
I had a coworker who told me that when the stock market crashed a few years back she took all of her money out. If she had just left it in it would be back where it was (and even higher) now. As it is, that just makes your losses permanent.
So... what did you find compelling about "the way it's written"? It seems very ordinary to me.
Still, the fee structures of all too many 401(k)s are a serious drag on their participants' accumulation. Though I don't see this as a conspiracy so much as the result of widespread misconception about the value of active managers' efforts.
I come from a lumpenprole background. At one time I would have agreed with the whip smart dad. My theory of economics was that America prospered because people like me worked hard and died broke. I was, therefore, pleasantly surprised when several mutual funds I owned kept doubling in value every few years......an enormous amount of life is just dumb luck. If you were invested in the eighties and nineties, you came out ahead. I suppose the mutual fund managers got rich quicker than me, but I've got no complaints. Although people of my generation missed out on Internet porn, we were able to make money in the stock market.
Shana,
I'd suspect that the person in question here would view a finanical advisor as a "big banker" and with suspicion.
You're right about an emotional response. You could tell this guy over & over that over about historical performance and it woouldn't sink in.
I think of this not from the straight math side, but the political taxation side. And when you start to hear things like taxing 401(k)'s, confiscating them in exchange for a government annuity in the future, etc. He may not have been so silly. Politicians hate to have piles of money sitting around of which they can't take a rake off. Retirement accounts represent that now.
.an enormous amount of life is just dumb luck
Indeed. I've told my children that life is hard enough when things are going smoothly. Don't compound your problems but doing stupid stuff. One of the easiest things to do in life is become poor.
I first became aware of Warren Buffett in 1983 when he was 53 years old and I could have bought his A stock for about $1200 per share, today the A shares are selling for about $160,000 per share. I could have bought a 100 shares of Microsoft for $2800 on the day it came public and today it would be worth over a million dollars. I've enjoyed the market but like my golf game I always feel like I could do better, shoulda woulda coulda.
Why would you not have money in the stock market? It's not like you can make money from interest rates these days.
Politicians hate to have piles of money sitting around of which they can't take a rake off. Retirement accounts represent that now.
I'm pretty confident that if they aren't going to reform SS, they don't gave the gumption to go after personal retirements. Assuming of course the whole of Congress didn't sign a (political) suicide pact.
Jay said:
"As of 2011, the 25 year avg annual returns of the S&P 500 was 9.28%"
Jay, if you calculate that 25 years from 2013, you'll find a very different rate of return.
It's all about the timing. If you were in substantially before the late 90's run-up, you've done well. If you got in later, not so well.
"Whip smart" people like this are why the Democrat Party hasn't been relegated to the dustbin of history.
Actually, he sounds as if most of his "education" has come from the Democrat Party.
Savings have to start somewhere and at some age.
A good friend was so proud of reaching $1M in investments. He sold men's clothes in a very small mid-west town. He and his wife saved hard and he invested well. Nothing fancy. His biggest expense was a small RV which they travel around the country.
I do my own investing as in choosing and buying my stocks via a discount broker. I feel like I care more about my money than any broker or investment advisor but then I've always been an active investor and I realize that most people in the market are not into the stock market.
The "powers that be" phrase is an idiot tattoo on the speaker. The minute it is uttered you know you will be in for some ultra dumb speech.
Madison Man said: "Why would you not have money in the stock market? It's not like you can make money from interest rates these days."
Correctamundo. It is the only place to make money now. The Dow is gaining ground in large part because there is no where else to invest. And that is my greatest fear. The Bernank has created this environment of near zero interest rates. The next correction (love that word) will not be pretty.
Dreams. If you pick your own stocks i can almost guarantee you know more stock symbols than a broker at a major wire house. They are now in the business of selling funds.
I worked at GE in Louisville and you would be surprised at how many blue collar workers had over a million dollars of GE stock.
It has been harder to make money the last few years because we've been in a secular bear market.
The way to make money now is to predict bubble timing.
You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. I could write a song.
Same as it ever was.
@MM. UVXY is my current choice.
I found a participant statement from my last employer at the end of 2005 (no further contributions by me or them after then). Since then, my compounded return was 6% per annum, up to the crash, through the crash, and after the crash. I have had 60-70% equities, the rest fixed. If you are patient, you can do all right. This propaganda campaign against 401ks is designed to (a) legitimize confiscation of part or all of the balances and (b) replace it with another layer of government benefits. Free citizens are no use to a government that wants as many dependents as possible.
The way to make money now is to predict bubble timing.
"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" Still good advice.
When I was young, I assumed I'd get married at 30 and retire at 40. Why? Because that's what I wanted, and I figured that was enough to make it happen. I never suspected that neither would be something I wanted when the time came.
This propaganda campaign against 401ks
That's definately what it feels like. We don't live in the world of defined benefit plans anymore and if we did most people wouldn't like it because they would lose them the second they switched jobs. Those articles iritate me so much because they never mention the most important points!
Jay, if you calculate that 25 years from 2013, you'll find a very different rate of return
I'm not sure what you mean?
The S&P 500 gained 13.4% in 2012 , marking the benchmark U.S. index's largest annual return since 2009 and fourth-largest return in the last decade.
Also, the Nasdaq Composite Index was up nearly 16% in 2012.
This "wise dad" is losing money hand over fist.
Colonel, the failure of Congress to address the issues of SS may be causal of why they will steal (tax/confiscate) retirement plans. After all, those who saved for their own retirement should pay "their fair share" of the benefits of those who did not. It is not fair that they should be able to get that money through a "tax loophole".
It is all about how the messaging is done.
Any actual attempt to seize IRAs and/or 401Ks will be met with ropes from lampposts. I'll be there. Tar and feathers would be letting them off far too lightly. If the politicians have a brain in their heads (always a questionable notion), they have to know this.
An interesting sidebar harking back to our discussion over higher education:
NY Post:How colleges scam the working class
Interesting quote:
"In their new book, “Paying for the Party: How College Maintains Inequality,” professors Elizabeth Armstrong (U. Michigan) and Laura Hamilton (UC-Merced) present depressing results from a five-year study that tracked the women from one freshman dorm at a Midwestern flagship university: Not a single one of the working-class women they’d monitored had managed to graduate."
Everyone's advice on the stock market is 100% correct sometimes.
Especially since many companies have stock purchasing programs where you can buy fractional stocks and shares directly from the corporation. If nothing else the direct purchase of shares bypasses the costs of a broker and allows the purchase of shares in smaller increments.
"Not a single one of the working-class women they’d monitored had managed to graduate."
I could see the explanation for this being that these women have a life experience that informs them that a degree is not necessary for an acceptable life, while others may see the degree as absolutely required for validation. The point remains that they should not have bought the sales pitch in the first place.
@ bagoh20
"Everyone's advice on the stock market is 100% correct sometimes."
Yeah. As long as you understand the underlying dynamic that is currently driving the market. Right now that dynamic is the vastly suppressed earnings potential of bonds, due to Qualitative Easing by the Federal Reserve, which is driving a massive outflow of money from bonds into an inflow of money into the stock market artificially inflating it into a bubble.
Another driving mechanism is the constant devaluation of American currency which requires higher and higher valuations of stock values simply because the dollar values are outmoded in shares that are traded world wide.
After all, those who saved for their own retirement should pay "their fair share" of the benefits of those who did not. It is not fair that they should be able to get that money through a "tax loophole".
That'd going to be a tough argument to make when the tax loophole is actually just a deferrment of taxes. Contributions to IRAs and 401ks will get taxed when withdrawals are made.
Since those retirement plans are typically used by middle class on both sides of the political spectrum, I doubt few liberals are going to cheer on an attempt by the Federal government to take those plans over.
IMO Obama has shown the hand that will be dealt to control (loot) 401k and other retirement plans. Put a tax cap on them that if your assets go beyond a set value then the "excess" is subject to near confiscatory tax rates.
Then either
A. let inflation drive valuations up across the board allowing greater and greater looting of such plans a la Minimum Alternative Tax.
B. continuously reduce the cap itself so more and more of the retirement plan is subject to the confiscatory tax rates.
C. both A & B.
@ Colonel Angus
"Since those retirement plans are typically used by middle class on both sides of the political spectrum, I doubt few liberals are going to cheer on an attempt by the Federal government to take those plans over."
Since most liberal Democrats live in high tax blue states all they'd have to do is offer an offset of state taxes. So they could implement that system and then simply put in that you can deduct the state taxes paid from the amount owed from withdrawal taxes on retirement plans.
This would help subsidize blue states, hit the liberal Democrat voter more gently and hammer the shit out of lower tax red states.
'dreams' said, "I feel like I care more about my money than any broker or investment advisor"
It's not just that you care more about your money than an investment pro will care about it, it's the inevitable appearance of the "agency problem." An agent should put your interests first, yet (surprise!) the agent tends to put the agent's interests first.
Today's investment climate is not easy. With lowest-risk investments paying below the CPI, everyone's trying to chase good ROI without going beyond the level of risk they're comfortable with. Of course, low interest rates are not an accident: government wants to shift assets from savers to debtors to reduce the overall debt burden on the economy.
And we're all waiting for when the Greedy Hand makes it's Big Grab, and enacts a wealth tax on IRAs and 401(k) plans. Or just forcibly converts their contents into government retirement accounts.
Now is the time for all good ants to come to the aid of grasshoppers!
Leftists who pretend to be economists. Yes, I'm looking at you, you lilliputian jackwad Krugman, should be excised from ever practicing their ideas on the public at large. However, that being said. Proper investing has a place in building wealth. What I don't like is that any gain acquired is subject to taxation, which should never be the case. Ever. I took the risk to invest it via post tax money and I should realize the full benefit of that risk, if there is any to be had without penalty.
Jay,
Please pardon my poor arithmetic.
But my second point still stands. If you were (as I was) heavily in the market in the 90's you've done well. If you are younger and started investing during or after the tech bubble, the returns haven't justified the risk of a putting 60% plus of your savings into equities.
I think a 40/50 year chart of the S&P backs that up.
There are very few feelngs on earth as exquisitely pleasurable as making more money than your boss thanks to a few lucky bets. This work best is he's a real asshole, but even if he's a nice guy it's still good. The best way is to tell him how unfair you think it is that he works so hard, and you get to drive the beamer. Show real sympathy. Pat him on the shoulder. Let him know you're there for him......As noted, there is no pleasure on earth that matches this. That's what investing is all about: not just making money but making more money than THEM. When good things happen to so so people, they get to feel virtuous and smug and worthy of heaven. That's a small price to pay for the risks associated with the stock market.
Rabel,
I think we'd have to look at some specific investments to nail that down.
I say that because if you got in after the tech bubble popped, you bought low(er).
I take your point, though. I would only counter by saying: If you bought in say 2006, despite the recent downturn, I bet by 2031, you'll be net positive.
Well if "Whip Smart" was talking to a full service broker back in the 1970's he would have been right. Lot's of people talk about the growth of the market, but few talk about the price of commissions. (List the no load - low fee index funds available in 1970.) You don't think those brokers got rich by investing, do you?
$600 a month will get you $1,377,593 at the end of 40 years at 6.5%.
Now what is $1,377,593 worth then? Less, but it's a lot better than nothing.
It's very hard to save for retirement completely on your own, especially now that deferred gratification is out of fashion.
That does not mean you should not do it.
Colonel Angus said...
That'd going to be a tough argument to make when the tax loophole is actually just a deferrment of taxes. Contributions to IRAs and 401ks will get taxed when withdrawals are made.
As with anything created by government, it's a bit more complicated. Regular 401K contributions are pre-tax deductions from your paycheck so all withdrawls are taxable. The newer Roth 401K is deducted from after tax income so withdrawls are 100% tax free when you meet the eligibility requirements. Likewise, contributions to a Roth IRA are after taxes, so withdrawls are tax free under current law. The traditional IRA is more complicated, though. If you can deduct your contributions from your income taxes, then the withdrawls are taxable. However, if you don't meet the eligibility requirements* to deduct your contributions, then only the gains are taxable while the money you paid into the IRA isn't.
*For a traditional IRA, the rules depend on whether you have a company retirement program like an IRA and if you do, then your income.
The newer Roth 401K is deducted from after tax income so withdrawls are 100% tax free when you meet the eligibility requirements. Likewise, contributions to a Roth IRA are after taxes, so withdrawls are tax free under current law.
You are tacitly betting that current law will not change. Silly you (and me.)
Any actual attempt to seize IRAs and/or 401Ks will be met with ropes from lampposts. I'll be there.
Ha.
Life is an exercise in risk management. Evolution is a chaotic process where both negative and positive progress are normal. In order to smooth the transition it is necessary to diversify. This is equally relevant to personal finances.
"... 401(k)'s, confiscating them in exchange for a government annuity in the future, etc."
This idea keeps coming up. The supposed rational is we dumb proles who saved and invested our way to financial security are too stupid to manage it. When uttered by the political class who have put this country on the brink of insolvency, it's particularly galling.
It's absolutely true that steady investment from 1970 to today made many folks paper millionaires,including me.
The bad news is that a million dollars today would be worth only $187,000 in 1970 dollars.
I was shocked to discover,around 1970,that my both my low wage,blue collar parents had accumulated close to $200,000 in various bank accounts and U.S. Savings bonds.Zero stock market investment.
The other bad news is if you are a regular 401k millionaire, you have no way to get at your money without giving up large chunks to the taxman.
I once read a 1955 ,either Life or Look, magazine article on a couple who had just retired from Sears. They were both 65 years old (They looked like they were 80). Sears had a great profit sharing plan and these two retired with a half a million bucks , worth over 4 million 2013 dollars.
That was a great and inspiring story,but it didn't cover what the tax bite was at withdrawal, or what the inheritance tax would
would have been.
ampersand said...
It's absolutely true that steady investment from 1970 to today made many folks paper millionaires,including me.
The bad news is that a million dollars today would be worth only $187,000 in 1970 dollars.
Sadly, it's worse than that. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator, $1,000,000 today is the equivalent of $166,686 in 1970. Of course, most things other than consumer electronics cost a lot less back then, too. For example, there were quite a few new cars selling for less than $3,000 back then.
You're right about the tax bite. The approach my wife and I use is to have a good hunk of money in Roth investments that are completely tax free (unless the bastards try to change the law). We maxed out our Roth IRAs every year since they became available and my company now offers the Roth 401K, so I'm putting additional money into that. We maxed out our 401Ks as well even though those are completely taxable. We have other investments that are tax deferred on the gains. Our retirement strategy will be to carefully manage our withdrawls to keep the tax bite as low as possible.
More to the point, go into retirement completely debt free so the amount of money you need each month is fairly low. It would truly suck having to make mortgage and car payments on a retirement income. We don't have any pension other than what we've saved for ourselves. The kids can have whatever is left over after we die.
"It would truly suck having to make mortgage and car payments on a retirement income."
I don't know. We own our current house free and clear, but are thinking of a second home in retirement. I think we'll borrow the money, so we can manage the tax bite of pulling money out of tax-deferred accounts.
My long term strategy is to make as much money as possible right now, to spread it on the wind across the country side, and then to fly into the sun singing Feats Don't Fail Me Now" in a burst of cobalt blue vaporization.
Who's with me?
Is this dad the literal example of Poor Dad in Rich Dad, Poor Dad?
@Orig. Mike, That sounds like a dangerous tactic if market swoons.
@FleetUSA - Good point. That's why I would take the money backing up the mortgage out of equities.
You could also have made a lot of money if you had bought the Glengarry lots and held onto them.
I grew up in a union household, United Paperworkers. I had absorbed a lot of ideas that I was not really aware of—most of them wrong. For example, I thought that businesses were parasites, living off the efforts of workers. Retail stores were middlemen who did nothing but jack up prices by buying stuff cheap and selling it at higher prices. Bankers were crooks who paid low interest to depositors and charged high interest to borrowers. These people were all evil and selfish.
However, I was the first person in my family to actually go to college. My Dad took a course after WWII, to draw the 52-50 part of the GI Bill ($50 a week for 52 weeks to any ex-GI who was enrolled in a class). He did not take economics, I did. I learned that the elements of business were labor, capital, rent and entrepreneurship. All of which had to paid or the system would not work. I learned that the middleman accumulates and stores products in a convenient location and saves customers the trouble and expense of searching out producers and bartering out deals with them. I learned that interest is rent on money. If somebody lives in your house, you expect them to pay rent. If someone holds your money they should pay rent as well. If the rent is too high or too low for you, go somewhere else. In an open market economy you have the right to do that. Some people keep trying to stop us from having that right.
As has been said about interest, those that understand it, earn it. Those that don't, pay it.
My wife and I have a reasonable nest egg.
" I had absorbed a lot of ideas that I was not really aware of—most of them wrong. For example, I thought that businesses were parasites, living off the efforts of workers. Retail stores were middlemen who did nothing but jack up prices by buying stuff cheap and selling it at higher prices. Bankers were crooks who paid low interest to depositors and charged high interest to borrowers. These people were all evil and selfish."
Sounds like Thanksgiving Dinner at my family's house. I pretty much just keep my mouth shut.
"He was right, and will work until the day he dies."
The only way there's any logic to that sentence is if that man did, indeed, invest in an IRA but some con artist left him penniless.
If he didn't invest, then he was right about nothing.
My latest Social Security statement says that the program will be out of money in the year 2033--the year I retire.
I told Sen. Mitch McConnell this today in a public meeting.
Where are the peasants with pitchforks?
I suspect that's why they don't mail SS statements any more.
They can say they notified us but they're counting on people not looking up their statements.
My parents inherited $30,000 in the late 60s, put it all in a mutual fund, and just left it there. In retrospect, it was the worst possible timing to put it in the market, but by the time they retired in the 1990s, that investment alone was worth close to $1 million.
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