Voters in the recall also tilt positively toward public sector unions in general, but not by a huge margin. Voters split about evenly in their support for changes to state law that limited the collective bargaining ability of government unions, an issue at the heart of recall effort.That's in the Washington Post. I'm not seeing any info on where or how the exit polling was done, but if true — as we say in Wisconsin — that sounds scary for Walker supporters.
Drawing broad conclusions about the shape of the electorate remains difficult due to the fact that these early exit poll reflect only morning and afternoon voters and can (and likely will) shift before polls close at 9 p.m. eastern time.
ADDED: A Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article that went up 15 minutes ago says:
No statewide figures were available, but local election officials offered fairly similar accounts of a heavy turnout in communities large and small, in both Democratic and Republican areas.There was a very strong turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, the Democratic stronghold.
In many places, election officials said turnout was as strong as, or stronger than, it was for the 2010 gubernatorial election. A few even compared it to the 2008 presidential election.
But Walker's base also appeared to be turning out strongly, particularly in several Waukesha County communities that favored him by more than a 2-to-1 margin in his 2010 victory over Barrett. Shawn Lundie, Waukesha County Executive Dan Vrakas' chief of staff, believes voter turnout in his county will exceed the state Government Accountability Board's estimate of 60% to 65%.UPDATE: Drudge is headlining: "EXIT POLLS SHOW WALKER HOLDING SEAT."
WI EXIT POLLS: REMATCH SIMILAR TO ELECTION 2 YEARS AGO, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE... '5 POINT MARGIN'... DEVELOPING...
56 comments:
The exit polling was done on buses from Minnesota and Michigan.
Given all the money Walker forces spent, it will be an incredible miracle if he loses.
Lets pray for miracles!
According to Prof. Jacobsen over at Legal Insurrection, those same exit polls show an electorate almost exactly the same as the 2010 Walker/Barrett race.
Among the people forced to vote late because they go to work early and come home late, the percentages are gonna be for Walker.
I'm listening to an interview with Rience Prebius right now...he sounds very confident although he says he isn't making any predictions. He says he knows exactly where Walker stands with the absentee ballots and he's confident in the turnout today.
Drudge's headline:
WI EXIT POLLS: REMATCH SIMILAR TO ELECTION 2 YEARS AGO, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE... '5 POINT MARGIN'... DEVELOPING...
If thats the case, I hope the unions enjoyed wasting that $60 or so million.
This is the WaPo, after all. They've been doing more sci-fi lately than "Analog".
And it sounds like something to goose the last-minute vote for Barrett.
Jay Retread said...
Given all the money Walker forces spent, it will be an incredible miracle if he loses.
Lets pray for miracles!
Retread wants a little cheese with his whine.
The miracle will be when the Lefties finally give it up.
Pray for that.
PS It's blasphemous to pray for evil. Retread's gonna wake up married to Hatman.
If Walker loses, this election could be even more important than the hype has suggested it will be if he wins.
Imagine the effect on voting legislation that will result. I almost hope he loses, because voter fraud is more important and badly needs addressed. The long needed proof my be upon us.
If Wisconsin wants to commit economic suicide, fuck them.
If Walker loses I pray for this benighted country. The unions will turn this entire nation into General Motors.
The Dems are going to steal the election. I doubt anyone followed the 2000 election more than me and I watched them try and steal Florida with their 500 lawyers that were already in Florida election day and the PR firm that was calling voters and pushing the voter disenfranchisement meme. It has become their M.O.
Jay Retread said...
Given all the money Walker forces spent,
Yes!
It is only money! I mean, it isn't like the DNC is broke or anything, so I guess Dems didn't really want Walker to lose!
It isn't the bankruptcy of your ideas, it is just spending!
The producers have an inherent disadvantage in elections - that they are held on Tuesday. That day was set up when the concept of "weekend" was unknown.
Let's change that to the first weekend in November - both days.
You can bet that the union workers are given plenty of time off to vote, as are other parts of the Democratic base - students, those on the dole, the homeless, the dead, the bovine and the illega..., oops, I mean, Potentially Insufficiently Documented Future Reliable Democratic Voters of La Raza. Holding them on the weekend would allow those who have productive jobs in the real world the opportunity to vote as well.
There should be an extensive audit of a few elections like this that are very contentious. Review every ballot and secretly record polling places etc. to get a good idea of what is or is not happening. I know that conservatives have no fear of that. I bet liberals would fight it tooth and nail.
Obama down to 52% on Intrade...
bagoh - oh please I'm so tired of hearing conservatives crying foul whenever they lose an election. Man up and admit Wisconsin is a progressive state and Walker never should have eliminated collective bargaining.
Alex--I suspect we will find out late tonite or tomorrow morning, wont we--Bagh of course, can speak for himself
bagoh - oh please I'm so tired of hearing conservatives crying foul whenever they lose an election. Man up and admit Wisconsin is a progressive state and Walker never should have eliminated collective bargaining.
LOL
I would wish for a media/reporting blackout on election day. Particularly with exit polling. Early reports influence the vote. Late voters decide to stay home.
Certainly that happened in Florida where the state has two separate time zones and victory (for Gore) was declared by the media before the polls closed. Considering that recounts were so very close, that *mattered*. What we can't know is how many people who would have voted for Gore didn't bother since he'd already won, and how many who'd have voted for Bush didn't bother since Gore'd already won.
I suppose that in Wisconsin reports that things are close will get more people out but it would be better for citizen confidence, I think, to not have the running totals.
Pump up da volume in Waukesha Co.!
are those the same union households that are choosing not to pay their union dues now that it's not sucked out of their paychecks?
Alex,
Both sides claim voter fraud when they lose. I want to know the truth, but I wonder why liberals don't. They seem surprisingly un-curious. I know conservatives would welcome a fair analysis, regardless of who won the election, as long as the analysis is done fairly. What are liberals scared of? You know damned well it would be the left that would fight finding out the truth. In fact, I think this race would be a good candidate for analysis especially if Walker wins. Then your little whine would be stifled, and I think we would still find lots of Dems cheated. You wanna join that call right now?
Alex said...
bagoh - oh please I'm so tired of hearing conservatives crying foul whenever they lose an election.
Alex, you're an idiot in this case. The WI recall is all about urban liberals crying foul over losing fair and square.
Early reports influence the vote. Late voters decide to stay home.
That is so 1980's. Any citations to back that up? I googled "Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior" and couldn't come up with anything conclusive (and noting newer than 1986), other than losers saying it affected the outcome.
If the public unions win, then the taxpayers lose. The taxpayers still constitute a majority of American citizens.
This is a referendum of the people's choice for liberty or submission with benefits.
If they have same day registration, as I'm reading here... is there a limit on how many resident can register per household?
Or is it an all you can eat type deal?
Who knew that many years ago when Althouse started the blog that she would be in the center of the political universe geographically. Your coverage has been thoroughly enlightening, and I am glad to see it. However, part of me is also sad to see the political dichotomy tearing up your state. Seeing it from 10,000 feet is so much simpler to stomach.
"Seeing it from 10,000 feet is so much simpler to stomach."
Don't worry, this sort of thing is coming to a federal government near you.
>>If they have same day registration, as I'm reading here... is there a limit on how many resident can register per household?
Or is it an all you can eat type deal? <<
The rule is you have to be resident in the state for 28 days and provide evidence of such residence. A lease or any utility bill serves as proof of residence. So if multiple residents are named on a lease they can all register.
Given the recent reports that 30-50% of AFSCME and WEAC union members have dropped their union memberships, I don't see how 'union household' share of voters can match past elections.
leslyn said...
Among the people forced to vote late because they go to work early and come home late, the percentages are gonna be for Walker.
Uh uh. Tend to go Democratic
Try again.
Flex workers in white collar jobs.
Agree with Christian Schneider: voting early today in my area was very busy (line of 50, instead of the usual 5-10 people at 7am). By 6pm, things are much slower than I would have expected. Just a few cars at the polling area.
Showed my ID when I went to get my ballot - "We don't need that". "I would feel more comfortable if you knew that I am truly who I am claiming to be". she just rolled her eyes.
Stephen Hayes just tweeted:
"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."
Please God, let Walker win and the Unions lose. If not, we are most certainly doomed to try to do any reforms of any kind and the ride to Hell in our current handbasket will be swift and most likely deadly.
My guess is that the Federales "observing" this election aren't there so much to ensure that the law is followed as they are to see if they can spot any novel strategies and tactics to pass up the chain of command.
James said...
Stephen Hayes just tweeted:
"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."
Why bother?
It isn't like the judge is at all interested in the law...
"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."
WTF? Don't people know what the times of the polling places are and have known it for YEARS. Can't people in Wisconsin tell time. Plan ahead. Cast absentee ballots?
Why the last minute drama and brinkmanship? It isn't like the rules haven't been known and posted for quite some time? It isn't like there aren't already many different ways to vote. AND it certainly isn't like this election was some big surprise!
"Why the last minute drama and brinkmanship?"
Purely an operations thing. It takes time to falsify the number of ballots they're going to need.
Any citations to back that up? I googled "Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior" and couldn't come up with anything conclusive (and noting newer than 1986), other than losers saying it affected the outcome.
Florida 2000. Early MSM calls depressed turnout in Florida panhandle (diff time zone)
And I didn't need Google for that. Learn to think for yourself.
"Waukesha County...is that where the Alzheimer county clerk is? Lordy, and I can't stand the suspense of waiting four days to find out what their vote total is."
Exactly! How will the Democrats know how many votes they need to create if the numbers don't come out on time?
Will we get to see another one of these hissy fits tonight from Graeme Zielinski?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwMFpl1KLb8
Mark said...
"Why the last minute drama and brinkmanship?"
"Purely an operations thing. It takes time to falsify the number of ballots they're going to need."
Good point plus the dems don't know how many votes they need to manufacture until everybody else has stopped voting.
The GOP controlled house should be impeaching judges that issue political activist opinions (such as the judge who prevented the new voter ID law from being implemented for this election).
Heh...30 minutes to go...we'll see.
?Christian Schneider @Schneider_CM
RT @RickEsenberg: @Schneider_CM If they DON"T sue, it's a bad sign for Barrett. Suggests its beyond the margin of litigation.?
"How will the Waukesha County Clerk know how many bags of votes she needs to find if she doesn't wait a few days?...Like last time."
This kind of chicken has been going on since at least 1960, when Daley stole the election from Nixon (no wonder he was bitter and distrustful) by waiting that little bit longer for the returns from downstate.
verification: hip shart? Really?
Actually, it's been going on forever. That's how LBJ lost his first campaign for a congressional seat. "His" precincts reported first. Rookie mistake.
The live blogging is saying now that people in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote.
FWIW, that sounds right to me. Fair to Wisconsin voters, and a consolation prize to Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois voters whose buses got held up in rush-hour traffic.
Good luck Governor Walker. I just want you to know, we're all counting on you.
leslyn said...
The live blogging is saying now that people in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote.
I believe by law, they have to be allowed to vote.
If you're in line, you should be allowed to vote. If you show up after the polls are supposed to close, screw you - go home and learn the value of punctuality.
Funny how the Dems always have to sue to preserve the "right"s of criminals, illegal aliens, slackers, out-of-staters and the dead. It's almost like they know they can't win with actual, live, eligible voters.
bagoh20:
It should be clear by now that the majority of Democrats, or at least the current administration, does not care about civil rights and not only has demonstrated a preference for disenfranchising American citizens, but has actively sought its enforcement.
Here's the latest example of the internal division wrought by these fanatics inside our burgeoning bureaucracy.
Forest Service hit for Border Patrol call
The ruling by the Agriculture Department’s assistant secretary for civil rights [Joe Leonard, Jr. Ph.D] could change policies nationwide as law enforcement agencies grapple with how far they can go in trying to help the Border Patrol while not running afoul of racial profiling standards.
It's ironic that civil rights leaders are at the forefront of violating civil rights. Subversion from within is the most insidious.
This is how civil rights are violated through an emotional appeal and a precedent derived from a selective history. The intervention by the Justice Department to prevent Arizona's effort to preserve its republican form of government was only the most visible action to undermine Americans' rights.
The integrity of civil servants cannot be established through progressive fiscal compensation. It cannot be processed through redistributive (i.e. involuntary exploitation) and retributive (i.e. reparations) change. This only acts as a sponsor of corruption.
Thank you, thank you, thank you, Wisconsin. From the bottom of my little immigrant heart.
Cheers,
Victoria
What I absolutely adored on Twitter, were all the progressive surrogates tweeting madly for those in the precincts to stay there, if they arrived prior to 8 PM.
As if to suggest that the high turnout was for no other reason, than a disproportionately high Democrat turnout salivating to cast their Barrett votes.
HAH.
I said, I said, HAH. /Foghorn Leghorn
Cheers,
Victoria
Yay :)
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