tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post7412393779181370019..comments2024-03-28T06:49:04.713-05:00Comments on Althouse: If Trump is teaching a class in how reality works, Scott Adams is the gunner in that class. Ann Althousehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01630636239933008807noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-2026838251557849562016-03-12T08:54:30.885-06:002016-03-12T08:54:30.885-06:00Trump was encouraging people to vote. THE WON and...Trump was encouraging people to vote. THE WON and the Lib-Cong want total subservience to their agenda. If you can't tell the difference, then you're the fascist.MAJMikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02518049595313706775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-53658490970813015332016-03-11T23:14:38.425-06:002016-03-11T23:14:38.425-06:00We cant' afford games at the convention.
What...<i>We cant' afford games at the convention.</i><br /><br />What do you mean "we" kemosabe.Phil 314https://www.blogger.com/profile/04133300763922742206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-24689545057054562782016-03-11T22:19:47.806-06:002016-03-11T22:19:47.806-06:00n.n said...
It's a pro-choice, pro-choice, pr...n.n said... <br />It's a pro-choice, pro-choice, pro-choice, pro-choice world.<br /><br />3/11/16, 3:20 PM<br /><br />They're not here, they're not coming...Jon Ericsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05548597217632737704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-83789209972962411162016-03-11T21:55:42.045-06:002016-03-11T21:55:42.045-06:00Chicago is teaching the rest of us its own reality...Chicago is teaching the rest of us its own reality.Big Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831645119853118904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-74786041395503951102016-03-11T19:57:49.131-06:002016-03-11T19:57:49.131-06:00The Democrats have been using emotion over facts t...The Democrats have been using emotion over facts to win elections my entire adult life. Scott Adams is pointing out nothing that is new.SGT Tedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00184808889760136366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-46157171983167894202016-03-11T19:18:30.692-06:002016-03-11T19:18:30.692-06:00If Trump goes into the convention with say 1,000 v...If Trump goes into the convention with say 1,000 votes and more than anyone else. And he doesn't get the nomination, then everyone might as well as go home. Because Hillary will have been guaranteed the election.<br /><br />Republicans need to understand reality. We've lost 4 of the last 6 elections. We lost the popular vote in 2000 and only won because a couple thousand leftist in Florida decided to vote for Ralph Nadar. And John Kerry was on of the worst POTUS nominees ever and he still almost won. <br /><br />Bottom line: If the Trump voters go 3rd Party or just stay home. Hillary will win. We cant' afford games at the convention. rcoceanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17102201338319611538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-58347084176650372052016-03-11T18:51:51.183-06:002016-03-11T18:51:51.183-06:00Speculations (as opposed to specula) are lots of f...Speculations (as opposed to specula) are lots of fun, but at this point not worth a bunch. Next Tuesday is what's important. If DilDon wins in Florida and Ohio, it will all be over except learning how to say "Madame President." The Republican convention will have about as much relevance as an Occupy Wall Street demonstration. But, maybe Hillary will stroke out or something and the Dems will be left with Bernie -- the only man in the world who can get DilDon elected president -- and visa versa, as Yogi might say.CachorroQuentehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13971149640597297640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-23006729219281386332016-03-11T17:23:54.812-06:002016-03-11T17:23:54.812-06:00In short, your uncertainty is justified, and share...In short, your uncertainty is justified, and shared. :DBeldarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13404583858244777905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-36642270328119263292016-03-11T17:22:49.525-06:002016-03-11T17:22:49.525-06:00"[I]n between the first and second ballot if ..."[I]n between the first and second ballot if state delegations commit a majority of their delegations to someone who didn't meet the eight-state rule on the first ballot, can the candidate[s] meet the eight-state rule on subsequent ballots?"<br /><br />I don't think the rule as presently written directly answers that. Because of its purpose, it seems quite likely that no one ever gave any consideration to whether and how the rule should operate in a contested convention with multiple ballots. <br /><br />One could argue about what is implied, from the circumstances and the language, and ask for a ruling from the chair (Speaker Paul Ryan, I believe?). Or one could try to amend the rule. <br /><br />I think the most reasonable interpretation would be that no one may become a candidate in second or later ballots who failed to meet the eight-state requirement before the first ballot. But I could certainly argue the opposite case with a straight face, too.Beldarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13404583858244777905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-325415202199046912016-03-11T16:36:42.323-06:002016-03-11T16:36:42.323-06:00Yes, I understand that whoever it is in charge of ...Yes, I understand that whoever it is in charge of the rules can change the rules -- surely, the temporary ones. My uncertainty lies with continuance of the rules as they currently are. For example, in between the first and second ballot if state delegations commit a majority of their delegations to someone who didn't meet the eight-state rule on the first ballot, can the candidate[s] meet the eight-state rule on subsequent ballots? <br /><br />[Question mark is not optional.]CachorroQuentehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13971149640597297640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-39744820261400858002016-03-11T16:13:27.558-06:002016-03-11T16:13:27.558-06:00@ CachorroQuente (3/11/16, 1:32 PM): If the RNC po...@ CachorroQuente (3/11/16, 1:32 PM): If the RNC powers-that-are-unseen decided to throw in behind John Kasich, for example -- as in his persistent fantasy -- then they could amend Rule 40(b) to simply add a clause at the end of the key sentence, thusly:<br /><br />"Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination; provided, however, that if no candidate shall secure the nomination on the first ballot, then the nominations process shall be re-opened and the eight-state requirement hereinabove shall no longer apply."<br /><br />Fig leaf: "Oh, we didn't change the rules, we just added a clarification for what should happen if there were multiple ballots. How can anyone object to clarity?" But that would obviously be humbug.Beldarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13404583858244777905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-64142304361237825762016-03-11T16:11:32.875-06:002016-03-11T16:11:32.875-06:00Ddh"Drago, the Rosenbergs and Alger Hiss [cou...Ddh"Drago, the Rosenbergs and Alger Hiss [could his last name be more appropriate?] were Soviet spies and traitors, but Joe McCarthy wasn't the cure."<br /><br />Nobody said he was. Any other strawmen you'd like to construct?<br /><br />Ddh: "In fact, McCarthy's reckless charges allowed the left to pooh-pooh the real threat after he was shown to be a fraud."<br /><br />The idea that the left would not find any of a million other reasons to downplay and deny the existence of these spies is naivete on stilts. Many on the left, today, still deny it!Dragohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04079148433908004715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-11090558622494203012016-03-11T16:08:47.815-06:002016-03-11T16:08:47.815-06:00@ CachorroQuente (3/11/16, 1:32 PM), who said, &qu...@ CachorroQuente (3/11/16, 1:32 PM), who said, "[T]he Republicans have an eight state rule. This probably limits the nominated candidates on the first ballot to Cruz and DilDon. How this works on subsequent ballots if there is no majority on the first ballot is not clear to me."<br /><br />It's <a href="https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf" rel="nofollow">RNC Rule 40(b)</a>, and the relevant sentence reads:<br /><br />"Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination."<br /><br />Trump & Cruz are both extremely likely to meet this qualification; the last count I saw had Trump at 6 and Cruz at 4 of the required 8. Neither Kasich nor Rubio have any realistic shot, though, and certainly no new white knight like Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan could satisfy this rule. HOWEVER: This rule was itself a temporary add-on intended to keep Ron Paulbots from disrupting Mitt's coronation in 2012, and it could be changed very easily by the RNC before the convention, with no one having any legal recourse to complain about the rule change. <br /><br />It's this possibility -- that someone will jigger the rules at the last minute -- that upsets both the Cruz and Trump campaigns, especially the latter. <br /><br />If the "establishment" rallies around Cruz, though, they can keep the rules exactly as they are and still stop Trump, fair and square, within those rules. They will thereby deny Trump and his supporters a legitimate reason to go third-party. But I believe Trump and his supporters don't give the first flying flip about "legitimacy," and if it's anyone but him, Trump will break his word to support the GOP nominee.<br /><br />The process by which state delegates are selected varies very substantially from state to state. Sometimes in the past -- as in the 1976 GOP convention -- the nomination fight plays out not in a series of floor votes, but rather in challenges to particular states' delegations (or subgroups within them). Sometimes those get fought out in the pertinent state's own courts before the convention; sometimes they get fought out behind closed doors at the conventions. That could happen in this cycle, but I think it's less likely simply because the disinfectant of sunshine is so much more potent with a 24/7/365 news cycle and the internet.Beldarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13404583858244777905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-75019392674153060592016-03-11T15:56:43.668-06:002016-03-11T15:56:43.668-06:00So, are we to believe that voting with one's i...<i>So, are we to believe that voting with one's id is now a good idea? Dismiss rational thought, it's no longer important in the brave new Trump World</i> - Amanda<br /><br />Hey, you seem to be voting with your amygdala.tim in vermonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06547980465313241972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-16699841632263085682016-03-11T15:20:07.005-06:002016-03-11T15:20:07.005-06:00It's a pro-choice, pro-choice, pro-choice, pro...It's a pro-choice, pro-choice, pro-choice, pro-choice world.n.nhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04252447117532342957noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-47884714556501059572016-03-11T15:15:53.005-06:002016-03-11T15:15:53.005-06:00Adams is correct.
A good politician is a human n...Adams is correct. <br /><br />A good politician is a human nature expert. <br /><br />The details are for the wonks to figure out. <br /><br />Seriously. Known Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15029003649395214104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-24502689445520392342016-03-11T15:12:35.402-06:002016-03-11T15:12:35.402-06:00How do you sound like you know what you are talkin...How do you sound like you know what you are talking about?<br /><br />Know what you're talking about.<br /><br />When it comes to policy, Trump does not sound like he knows what he is talking about.<br /><br />...like Palin.machinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15770538128023770615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-17004126513279359052016-03-11T14:18:25.739-06:002016-03-11T14:18:25.739-06:00Drago, the Rosenbergs and Alger Hiss [could his la...Drago, the Rosenbergs and Alger Hiss [could his last name be more appropriate?] were Soviet spies and traitors, but Joe McCarthy wasn't the cure. In fact, McCarthy's reckless charges allowed the left to pooh-pooh the real threat after he was shown to be a fraud.<br /><br />Years ago, snake-oil salesmen sold laetrile as a cure for cancer, a real disease. Now, an apricot-faced huckster is selling himself as the solution for the country's ills. But, like laetrile, he's just the pits.ddhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09844885944695799484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-54157428691782166082016-03-11T14:09:21.089-06:002016-03-11T14:09:21.089-06:00Early in our marriage, my wife arrived home one af...Early in our marriage, my wife arrived home one afternoon with a very expensive, very large Persian carpet rolled up, tied atop our car. She and I dragged it into the living room, where it was two feet longer than the room. She called the store demanding they take it back at full price. The salesman said to her, "But you loved that carpet! It will be your nicest carpet the rest of your life! What you have to think about is, HOW LONG ARE YOU GOING TO KEEP THAT HOUSE?"<br /><br />The carpet still looks great in our current living room, in a different house, almost 25 years later.<br /><br />Some salesmen really know how to close a deal.mikeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17875483485290838207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-50510183734994204112016-03-11T14:06:30.054-06:002016-03-11T14:06:30.054-06:00To add my to point above, Scott Adams is trying to...To add my to point above, Scott Adams is trying to sell to us. He's trying to make an argument that might appeal to engaged voters like us to choose Trump. It's a low cost, low risk way for Trump to pick a few of us off as voters. Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18307552957596862754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-7933546116824303782016-03-11T13:57:33.299-06:002016-03-11T13:57:33.299-06:00Beldar, and others, thank you for the clarificatio...Beldar, and others, thank you for the clarification about convention delegate rules. If Trump goes 3rd party, he would not have much of a chance. i wonder if he really wants to become just the most recent third party candidate to lose.johnshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13744733211467011152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1790516554060925502016-03-11T13:55:49.404-06:002016-03-11T13:55:49.404-06:00I think Adams is right here. I've spent quit...I think Adams is right here. I've spent quite a bit of time on the neuroscience of selling and analysis of facts won't do it. Trump uses a number of negotiation and selling techniques. I think he's the car salesman you say you can't stand but there you are in a new BMW with every option and you paid full price. And then, you talk yourself into liking the salesman to help rationalize the purchase. As for Ben Carson saying there are two Trumps - there is only one Trump. But he's savy enough to know his audience and adjust. When he's selling to voters, he's brash, labeling, loose on facts, high on both positiveness and anger, and funny. And that's because he understand the choice factors of most voters (btw, the group here at Althouse aren't the voters he's selling to - he doesn't care about our vote because he's already qualified us as not open to the sale right now). I'm sure that for someone like Carson, Trump focuses on different choice factors. And Carson bought the shiny new BMW from a sales guy who called him a child molester. Imagine if Ted Cruz had a 1/10th of Trump's likability? Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18307552957596862754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1018480688517860312016-03-11T13:32:53.567-06:002016-03-11T13:32:53.567-06:00"Yes, most states' delegates are bound . ..."Yes, most states' delegates are bound . . . to vote for the candidate to whom they are officially pledged on the first ballot, but not thereafter."<br /><br />But, the Republicans have an eight state rule. This probably limits the nominated candidates on the first ballot to Cruz and DilDon. How this works on subsequent ballots if there is no majority on the first ballot is not clear to me. <br /><br />"And because the delegates are typically GOP party regulars, very few of the delegates pledged to vote for Trump will actually have any personal loyalty to him." <br /><br /> The process of actually selecting the delegates is somewhat opaque, at least to me. It appears to depend on the states' rules. Some delegates may have already been chosen, others may be selected at state conventions. It has been reported in the last couple days that the DilDon campaign is working to maximize the number of loyalists among the delegates in order to prevent defections if the process goes to the second ballot.<br /><br />"Since I don't believe Donald Trump's pledges -- none of them -- I fully expect him to go third-party no matter what if he's not the GOP nominee."<br /><br />I agree that the DilDon is completely unworthy of trust, but mounting a third-party challenge at that late date would be enfraughtened with fraughty frautness. Besides, the thing that DildDon hates more than anything else is spending money on something other than mail-order Russian brides and he's not going to fork out the $100 million or so that a serious third-party candidacy would require.CachorroQuentehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13971149640597297640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-23816852852784928742016-03-11T13:28:26.418-06:002016-03-11T13:28:26.418-06:00Thanks for the insights, Beldar.
I found this a...Thanks for the insights, Beldar. <br /><br />I found this <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-brokered-convention-gop-rules-favor-trump-n535381" rel="nofollow">article</a> that talks about the GOP bylaws regarding brokered conventions.Bricaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10339216070058509630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-74769609879538332762016-03-11T13:10:22.836-06:002016-03-11T13:10:22.836-06:00@ johns: Yes, most states' delegates are bound...@ johns: Yes, most states' delegates are bound by their respective state election laws -- not an RNC rule, but state law -- to vote for the candidate to whom they are officially pledged on the first ballot, but not thereafter.<br /><br />A few states have some additional bells and whistles for later ballots, but by far the majority of delegates will be released after the first ballot.<br /><br />And because the delegates are typically GOP party regulars, very few of the delegates pledged to vote for Trump will actually have any personal loyalty to him.<br /><br />So yes, if Trump doesn't have it locked up with a majority of the delegates, or so close thereto as to make it a "tip-in" (e.g., within 20-40 delegates), then his prospects get extremely grim extremely quickly. If he is the plurality leader by a wide margin going in, but is denied the nomination as coalitions form to give someone else a majority, then Trump's supporters may cry "Foul!" and storm out to a rump convention for a third-party candidacy. The second-place candidate is the obvious target for anti-Trump forces to coalesce around. If a contested convention resulted in the third- or lower-placing candidate, or any non-candidate, being selected, though, all hell would indeed break loose. <br /><br />Since I don't believe Donald Trump's pledges -- none of them -- I fully expect him to go third-party no matter what if he's not the GOP nominee.Beldarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13404583858244777905noreply@blogger.com