tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post6201865677654124239..comments2024-03-28T08:03:25.634-05:00Comments on Althouse: Bernie Sanders finally gets a Trump nickname.Ann Althousehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01630636239933008807noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-28861903548281798342016-05-12T03:34:18.636-05:002016-05-12T03:34:18.636-05:00"2%" Silver still has some credibility l..."2%" Silver still has some credibility left. Give him a chance.jghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05254850370113601762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-63949123813744605822016-05-11T21:52:20.462-05:002016-05-11T21:52:20.462-05:00Needs to call Bernie, Crazy Uncle. Or just Nutjob ...Needs to call Bernie, Crazy Uncle. Or just Nutjob Bernie.Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11635784352780834494noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-80704844209671241762016-05-11T21:40:38.322-05:002016-05-11T21:40:38.322-05:00Yancey,
Actually, if you look at Nate Silver'...Yancey,<br /><br />Actually, if you look at Nate Silver's 2010 predictions, I don't think his predictions were quite as you seem to remember them:<br /><br /><a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate" rel="nofollow">In the Senate races</a>, Silver's model had the Democrats coming out with 51.6 seats and the Republicans with 48.3 seats; actual numbers turned out to be 53 Senators caucusing with the Democrats, and 47 with the Republicans. Nate missed it slightly in favor of the Republicans.<br /><br /><a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house" rel="nofollow">In the House</a>, Silver's model had the Republicans winning 232.2 seats and the Democrats winning 202.8 seats. Actual results turned out to be Republicans winning 242 seats and Democrats finishing with 193. Nate missed in favor of the Democrats (and, interestingly enough, by almost the exact same percentage- albeit in the other direction- that he missed in the Senate).<br /><br /><a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor" rel="nofollow">In the gubernatorial races</a>, Silver's model had the Republicans holding 29.9 governorships versus 19.3 governorships for the Democrats and 0.8 for the independents. Actual results turned out to be 29 for the Republicans, 20 for the Democrats and 1 independent (Lincoln Chafee), so he missed slightly in favor of the Republicans.<br /><br />Near as I know, those were the only 2010 races that he called- like, he didn't get into state legislatures or other statewide offices, so I don't know what other 2010 races to which you might be referring.<br /><br />Now in reality, all of these were well within the forecast's established margin of error, so statistically insignificant. But you should go back and look up his 2014 forecast, as well. I don't think it's going to be quite how you remember it.Bobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10887205004934304498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-76427130979482393582016-05-11T19:44:48.594-05:002016-05-11T19:44:48.594-05:00rhhardin, 'Strong-ankled Hillary', ha; now...rhhardin, 'Strong-ankled Hillary', ha; now I'm going to be compelled to spend an hour reading in the Iliad just to refresh my memory of the epithets. δυσαης, δυσαεος, stormy, ill-blowing, ill-smelling ("of seals")... not sure which candidate gets that one.Marc in Eugenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04331547981498637474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-46298535269496526942016-05-11T19:37:36.723-05:002016-05-11T19:37:36.723-05:00It may be that Trump used the work "Crazy&quo...It may be that Trump used the work "Crazy" as he understands that our public schools leave most without understanding the term "Delusional".James Pawlakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12186313444291703809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-45152825688916878742016-05-11T19:36:18.890-05:002016-05-11T19:36:18.890-05:00Bobby, the very fact that that he gave Trump littl...Bobby, the very fact that that he gave Trump little chance to win the nomination sums up to horrid. Even just a couple of weeks ago, he was seemingly ignoring the late Indiana polls showing Trump would win the state, and only moved his prediction on the last day even though the polls had moved the week before. My impression of his performance in this instance is a bit more cynical- I think he was trying to shape the outcome rather than predicting it, and failed spectacularly. I will go further- I think he got 2008 and 2012 "right" because that is what he wanted to see happen all along. He clearly performs much worse when Republican candidates beat Democrats (see 2010 and 2014), and when hated Republican candidates beat less-hated Republican candidates (Trump)- and it isn't like the polls didn't predict those outcomes, too- it is just that the outcomes aren't what Silver wanted to see. Trying to cover yourself by claiming late, unseen surges really doesn't wash with me. <br /><br />I consider this a problem a lot of poll-takers have, too- they want an outcome to set a narrative. Silver, though he doesn't take the polls, suffers similarly, and it shows up in the weighting factors. He gets lucky when Democrats have a good year and looks like a statistical genius, but then looks like just another pollster when Republicans do well.Yancey Wardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16427042729449397357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-30347075024617520732016-05-11T18:05:05.467-05:002016-05-11T18:05:05.467-05:00I' think he'd do better if his nick names ...I' think he'd do better if his nick names were rhyiming, or alliterative, or had the same first initials as the names. his assigning of nicknames seems positively random.<br />He could do batty Bernie, or Bat shit Bernie instead.<br />jr565https://www.blogger.com/profile/06250384040393259866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-7847308186777614392016-05-11T18:05:00.692-05:002016-05-11T18:05:00.692-05:00I think Bernie is more stupid than crazy, although...I think Bernie is more stupid than crazy, although at this point in modern history, still believing in socialism--despite all of the evidence of history, economics and logic-- has to be either crazy or stupid.Bilwickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12264809254712506094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-45763715099531624012016-05-11T17:33:22.277-05:002016-05-11T17:33:22.277-05:00On Biden, I the best name would be "Lifetime ...On Biden, I the best name would be "Lifetime Joe." Like the others, it is true that Biden is a lifetime politician and it personifies that theme that the system is broke by lifetime politicians. Kansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-13196537704917569172016-05-11T15:40:57.166-05:002016-05-11T15:40:57.166-05:00Some companies in the business of polling conduct ...Some companies in the business of polling conduct some polls and Silver's reaction is, <i>"For f--k's sake, America."</i><b>?!?</b><br /><br />Nate Silver may be a great analyst, but otherwise he's a halfwitted jackass.tim maguirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07717622436074043099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-56358365182286737392016-05-11T15:04:30.717-05:002016-05-11T15:04:30.717-05:00Why is it always about "hitting" with Tr...Why is it always about "hitting" with Trump? He's always talking about "hitting" other candidates. And hitting back, when they hit him. It is like listening to a 4th grader. Except that compared to Donald Trump, a fictional 4th grader like Bart Simpson is a sophisticate.<br /><br />Chuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07676108366725199186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-57796556396665688322016-05-11T14:46:06.001-05:002016-05-11T14:46:06.001-05:00Biden should be Gropin' Joe.Biden should be Gropin' Joe.JaimeRobertohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12080380710232902631noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-44701928197805395472016-05-11T14:45:40.710-05:002016-05-11T14:45:40.710-05:00Wild eyed, crazy Bernie.Wild eyed, crazy Bernie.JaimeRobertohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12080380710232902631noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1918518270431062016-05-11T14:35:28.847-05:002016-05-11T14:35:28.847-05:00Yes, Rush Limbaugh has been calling Sanders "...Yes, Rush Limbaugh has been calling Sanders "Crazy Bernie" for a long time.ELChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09755716607466641949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-29914534838016026142016-05-11T13:47:05.399-05:002016-05-11T13:47:05.399-05:00I would have called him "Bolshevik Bernie&quo...I would have called him "Bolshevik Bernie" or "Bolshie Bernie - which sounds awfully like "Bullshit Bernie". All work, really and I like alliteration. Of course, the Bolshie reference is probably too complicated for the historically illiterate drones who make up the core of Bernie's support (and of Trump's too). <br /><br />The ignorant Berntards are much better credentialed than the Trumpkins, but they're all really ignorant idiots. holdfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15206911009978107266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-60640204119227944292016-05-11T13:41:51.838-05:002016-05-11T13:41:51.838-05:00And Crazy Bernie is probably better than Wicked Un...And Crazy Bernie is probably better than Wicked Uncle Bernie, especially given how much he wants to "fiddle about" with the economy, regulations, taxes, etc. (For those too young to remember, that's a "Tommy" reference. And yes, I know it was Uncle Ernie, but close enough.)Clydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16736461252925227611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-65951028597687431072016-05-11T13:38:15.955-05:002016-05-11T13:38:15.955-05:00Crooked Hillary. Crazy Bernie. Goofy Elizabeth. ...Crooked Hillary. Crazy Bernie. Goofy Elizabeth. He seems to definitely have all of their numbers.Clydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16736461252925227611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-29233131038161554982016-05-11T13:37:16.490-05:002016-05-11T13:37:16.490-05:00This is hilarious- in other words, Silver didn'...<i>This is hilarious- in other words, Silver didn't expect to be wrong.</i><br /><br />Yeah. Looks really dump in hindsight. Givens aren't.Henryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14520113896946845614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-73860875717091130822016-05-11T13:12:53.105-05:002016-05-11T13:12:53.105-05:00Yancey,
"I think Silver has probably built a...Yancey,<br /><br />"<i>I think Silver has probably built a reputation on political forecasting based on being very right in two instances 2008 and 2012- instances that increasingly look like they were simple accidents. His forecasting outside those two elections are a lot less impressive, and his work this year has been horrid.</i>"<br /><br />Could you please share how you reached the conclusion that FiveThirtyEight's elections forecasting has been "horrid"?? Just a few weeks back, one of Nate Silver's guys (I believe it was Harry Enten) bragged that of all the primaries and caucuses they had reviewed, only 1 on the Republican side and 3 on the Democratic side had been outside their Polls-Plus Model's margin of error. Assuming 4 misses in ~60-ish swings is not your definition of "horrid," it would be interesting to compare your assessment against theirs, and see how they missed their own performance self-assessment.Bobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10887205004934304498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-76495439657487088402016-05-11T12:15:49.555-05:002016-05-11T12:15:49.555-05:00I think Silver has probably built a reputation on ...I think Silver has probably built a reputation on political forecasting based on being very right in two instances 2008 and 2012- instances that increasingly look like they were simple accidents. His forecasting outside those two elections are a lot less impressive, and his work this year has been horrid. <br /><br />However, it really isn't his fault this year for the most part- polling in politics is likely getting harder to do- it is hard to get representative samples, it is hard to get the truth out of people, and it might well be harder to even determine who is actually going to vote (in other words, nearly half the population eligible doesn't vote, but that might be changing due to two of the candidates). When you add to that Silver's pretty obvious political bias, getting Trump very wrong makes a lot of sense. I have actually been using Silver's predictions on Trump as a contrary indicator.Yancey Wardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16427042729449397357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-32133155554171156812016-05-11T12:05:18.557-05:002016-05-11T12:05:18.557-05:00"I don't think he expected Cruz and Kasic...<i>"I don't think he expected Cruz and Kasich to drop out."</i><br /><br />This is hilarious- in other words, Silver didn't expect to be wrong.Yancey Wardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16427042729449397357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-84967288596236414892016-05-11T11:52:36.261-05:002016-05-11T11:52:36.261-05:00Silver is wrong about baseball? The only really va...Silver is wrong about baseball? The only really valid critique I've read about PECOTA was that it was really hard to maintain once Silver moved on.Henryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14520113896946845614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-51120396123143954932016-05-11T11:45:40.331-05:002016-05-11T11:45:40.331-05:00Ohh no..tradguy. Recently redeemed Rushbo playing ...Ohh no..tradguy. Recently redeemed Rushbo playing and dissecting Trump's glowing statements about the Clintons 4 yrs ago on Greta (I like her, he's a great guy). How dare he? I bet you've got a nasty nickname for Rush now.walterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17818749187960350810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-20702610730852465112016-05-11T11:45:37.272-05:002016-05-11T11:45:37.272-05:00Silver is wrong about baseball and was wrong about...Silver is wrong about baseball and was wrong about Trump. The unknown unknowns confound himmcculloughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03168402889404727565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-33244128177670388962016-05-11T11:37:02.367-05:002016-05-11T11:37:02.367-05:00Barking mad HillaryBarking mad Hillarywalterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17818749187960350810noreply@blogger.com