tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post2292475335201561799..comments2024-03-19T03:51:06.510-05:00Comments on Althouse: Deep thoughts about Obama's bin Laden bounce.Ann Althousehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01630636239933008807noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-7926220312883766482011-05-11T02:32:19.588-05:002011-05-11T02:32:19.588-05:00Anyone who has read my posts here and elsewhere kn...Anyone who has read my posts here and elsewhere knows I'm pretty vehemently anti-Obama. But I'll try to set that aside and give a fair analysis.<br /><br />Whacking bin Laden doesn't guarantee his re-election, but it does help inoculate him from one of his main vulnerabilities, the perception he is weak on foreign policy/national security. If the economy goes south (should be *stays* south) it won't help him much, and any advantage will be wiped out if there is a major FU in foreign affairs between now and Nov. 2012. But otherwise it could tip the balance for him if the election is close.Gary Rosenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338791760274457388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-56468724048613559572011-05-11T01:09:30.702-05:002011-05-11T01:09:30.702-05:00Let me add to my last point. Republicans have typi...Let me add to my last point. Republicans have typically rated better than Democrats for foreign affairs, but worse when it came to the economy. But, the Republicans lost that edge going into the 2008 elections, likely, I would suspect, because of the 8 years of hounding of Bush (43) by the MSM. <br /><br />One of the big problems with Carter when it came to foreign affairs is that his Administration practiced a wishful thinking, moralistic foreign policy, that applied a high ethical standard to our allies, but none to our enemies. So, they could get suckered by the Iranians, among others. And, looking back, no matter how brutal the last Shah was, he wasn't nearly as bloody as what came afterwards.<br /><br />And, we have seen even worse with the Obama Administration and the Hillary! State Department. Enemies have been pandered to, and allies ignored or held to far higher standards. <br /><br />The world is a dangerous place, and is even more dangerous now than it was when Obama took office. This sort of wishful thinking, moralistic, foreign policy sounds nice in academia, but fails miserably in the real world. <br /><br />Sure, some people are going to give him the benefit of the doubt here, that he was just an innocent bystander to world events, outside his control. But there are likely going to be a lot who gave him that benefit last time around, and won't this time, esp. given the reality that he was the leader of the most powerful country in the world (despite, apparently, being embarrassed about that). <br /><br />We shall see.Bruce Haydenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10815293023158025662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-63701625011441367762011-05-11T00:58:03.537-05:002011-05-11T00:58:03.537-05:00I don't think that he will get a bounce, for a...I don't think that he will get a bounce, for a number of reasons. One, the election is a year and a half away. Remember GHWB (41) and the Gulf War? <br /><br />Another though is that we are likely to find ourselves in a far more scary place in the world, thanks to the diplomacy of Hillary! and the Obama Administration. Egypt is set to elect a new government with the Moslem Brotherhood as the biggest party. They have made clear that that they will quit preventing terrorists and armaments from flowing into Gaza, and are quite happy if the Christians in Egypt get killed off. The attacks on the Copts have already started. <br /><br />And, then there is Pakistan. A grudging partner in the War on Terror up until now. Likely not much longer. <br /><br />It is starting to look like 1980 all over again with the Carter Administration's failure with Iran. Except that the radicalization of Egypt, Pakistan, and maybe even Turkey, will dwarf the effects that we saw with Iran. <br /><br />So, I think it likely right now that we go into the 2012 elections with the bulk of the American people understanding that the Democrats, and esp. Obama, cannot be trusted with either the economy or foreign affairs. <br /><br />They have always been suspect to the majority of Americans in foreign affairs, but up until a year or so into the Obama Administration, the majority of Americans gave Democrats the advantage over Republicans with dealing with the economy. Doesn't make much sense, of course, but most of the American public have never had any economics courses, and trusted the MSM to explain this sort of thing to them. <br /><br />Oh, and then there is the corruption issue. As predicted, with a Republican House holding hearings on different Holder Justice Department issues, the rampant corruption of that department is starting to come out and resonate. Most corrupt DoJ in probably a half a century, at least. That isn't going to get many votes outside the Black community. <br /><br />And, to top it off, Obama is coming across as totally out of touch with both the American public and the requirements of his job. The guy couldn't even bother to look out of the window of AF1 the other day when he flew over it on his way to a fund raiser in Texas.Bruce Haydenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10815293023158025662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-51191763966818603392011-05-10T19:18:40.576-05:002011-05-10T19:18:40.576-05:00Kurt is correct. More SEALs lives would be at risk...Kurt is correct. More SEALs lives would be at risk or Pakistan would suffer a day of infamy.PaulVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07487620952112732071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-9937820686906098002011-05-10T18:46:06.000-05:002011-05-10T18:46:06.000-05:00And now here's the latest development on the T...And now <a href="http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2011/05/seal-team-10000.html" rel="nofollow">here's the latest development</a> on the Team Obama Overexposure and Changing Stories front. This is getting ridiculous.Kurthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14279716810659531943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-75211842162683216142011-05-10T17:53:26.422-05:002011-05-10T17:53:26.422-05:00It’s about 18 months until the 2002 election and i...<i>It’s about 18 months until the 2002 election and it likely won’t be a blip on voter’s radar by then</i><br /><br />Unless we suffer more terror attacks. Then Obama's victory lap will push Bush's "Mission Accomplished" off the history books.<br /><br />Liberals especially will not understand it: "But we thought the war was over?!"Fenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16734571593963330215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-67394937195955680442011-05-10T15:10:33.319-05:002011-05-10T15:10:33.319-05:00I don’t think he gets much of a bounce. It’s abou...I don’t think he gets much of a bounce. It’s about 18 months until the 2002 election and it likely won’t be a blip on voter’s radar by then.Thorley Winstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17262423151559851671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-53816537944808335282011-05-10T13:57:40.686-05:002011-05-10T13:57:40.686-05:00If he had captured OBL, he could have milked him f...If he had captured OBL, he could have milked him for intelligence and propaganda value -- trotted him out occasionally for a new bounce.hombrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12670099074010641958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-77027504470179147512011-05-10T13:51:51.462-05:002011-05-10T13:51:51.462-05:00I don't think Osama's take down has long l...I don't think Osama's take down has long legs for Obama. Carter was the last Democrat I voted for. Members of my squadron who supported him had an inauguration party. We had lots of peanuts and beer. The party sort of fizzled out after he announced he was pardoning the Vietnam draft dodgers. His doing that made every military service member feel like a sucker. Carter will probably hold the title of being my last Democrat vote, but he no longer holds the title of being the worst president I have known. Obama has that now. I had no idea he would be this bad. I did not vote for him but I did not vote for McCain either. I voted for Bob Barr. I knew my vote would not make any difference in South Carolina anyway. I wanted the Libertarian candidate to get enough votes for people to take libertarianism seriously. I think that is happening now.ken in txhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14345764031059905578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-71145446483786896402011-05-10T13:30:04.259-05:002011-05-10T13:30:04.259-05:00Have you who complain about Prof. Althouse's c...Have you who complain about Prof. Althouse's column heading not referred to the original NYTimes article she references (and links to)?Robert Cookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06951286299515983901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-28552672618438278752011-05-10T13:22:52.849-05:002011-05-10T13:22:52.849-05:00"he learned there is no such thing as a shove..."he learned there is no such thing as a shovel-ready job"<br /><br />The majority of the American electorate, which has learned this lesson a thousand times, re-learned that there's no such thing as a non-shovel-ready politician. None of us is as dumb as all of us!BarryDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08718280993291876400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-14165182812461799442011-05-10T13:07:18.030-05:002011-05-10T13:07:18.030-05:00Professor Althouse--
It's not enough that eve...Professor Althouse--<br /><br />It's not enough that everyone says "Obama" when they mean "Osama." You've written a headline that puts "Obama" right next to "bin Laden." Have you no shame?Rumpletweezerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17325566554310097014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-59035003952095756872011-05-10T13:06:18.463-05:002011-05-10T13:06:18.463-05:00Think deeply about this: there would have been no ...Think deeply about this: there would have been no "bin Laden bounce" <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dl6Ydu0q1A" rel="nofollow">if he slept on a Tempurpedic</a>.Wincehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15002449963597087316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-13140325130042796502011-05-10T13:02:24.079-05:002011-05-10T13:02:24.079-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Wincehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15002449963597087316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-19232402889480665542011-05-10T13:00:21.128-05:002011-05-10T13:00:21.128-05:00The basic nature of God's Justice:
GALATIANS...The basic nature of God's Justice: <br /><br />GALATIANS 6: 7-9 (KJV) <br />7: Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap. <br /><br />Obamas got a record now and the above will apply to him in the 2012 election?zbogwan99https://www.blogger.com/profile/09143859742984474894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-53519852195009112292011-05-10T12:48:27.382-05:002011-05-10T12:48:27.382-05:00Electorally speaking, it represents pure upside.
...<i>Electorally speaking, it represents pure upside.</i><br /><br />That's exactly right. And when you think about it, you realize that's a <i>good thing</i>, regardless of what you think about the President's other policies/achievements.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06319411779044647512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-39414234854401450402011-05-10T12:24:34.666-05:002011-05-10T12:24:34.666-05:00Tidal Basin....will Wilbur Mill's Argentine Fi...Tidal Basin....will Wilbur Mill's Argentine Firecracker be there too?I'm Full of Souphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00241724007440718575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-74414275297684566982011-05-10T12:21:23.740-05:002011-05-10T12:21:23.740-05:00Jack Handy would say "I'm a Senator, now,...Jack Handy would say "I'm a Senator, now, fuck off!"The Dudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354536924604187137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-53566071826100893702011-05-10T12:20:38.024-05:002011-05-10T12:20:38.024-05:00I'm increasingly of the opinion that the "...I'm increasingly of the opinion that the "bounce" will be negligible if not a complete wash by the end of the summer. As with everything Team Obama does, this has been so overplayed and overexposed that it is getting mighty tiresome already. That would be enough of a problem in ordinary times, but with the economy continuing to be an issue, this story is soon going to be crowded out by things people care more about. Also, as Fred4Pres points out, the many conflicting stories about what actually happened are a negative, and they illustrate one of the disadvantages of the story being so terribly overplayed in the past week and a half.Kurthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14279716810659531943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-71637061480803779452011-05-10T12:13:42.170-05:002011-05-10T12:13:42.170-05:00"What they can’t know, however, is what Mr. O...<i>"What they can’t know, however, is what Mr. Obama’s numbers would have looked like had he not caught Bin Laden. "</i><br /><br />What is it with progressives and non-falsifiable theories? "Sure unemployment is 9%, but we don't know how high it would have gone without stimulus!"<br /><br />Mr. Silver should just own up to the fact that he can't tease out the permanence of a bin Laden bounce from all the other noise, and wasting so many words pretending that he can makes him look petty.coketownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11257222645480570714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-2205474682031151002011-05-10T12:10:30.664-05:002011-05-10T12:10:30.664-05:00I bet Osama's body will miraculously wash up i...I bet Osama's body will miraculously wash up in the Tidal Basin in October, 2012.Palladianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01105490715666718993noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-34818403756802156322011-05-10T11:48:16.676-05:002011-05-10T11:48:16.676-05:00Fred4Pres said...
But bounces only matter if they...Fred4Pres said...<br /><br /><i>But bounces only matter if they are timed just before elections or are part of a bigger positive trend. Obviously if the war on terror starts winding down that would be a positive for Obama. If al Qaeda starts doing a bunch of attacks, that is a negative.</i><br /><br />Remember all the stuff about how bin Laden wanted to raise terrorists here? We know the crazies have been recruiting in prisons for about 10 years. Well, it's started, <a href="http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2011/05/06/police-ied-found-near-chester-train-tracks/" rel="nofollow">in Chester, PA (near Philadelphia)</a>.<br /><br />Fen said...<br /><br /><i>per Rasmussen<br /><br />pre-OBL kill: -14<br />today: -9</i><br /><br />Last one I saw before the raid was -13, but your point is well-taken.<br /><br />The index was -8 for a couple of days, but it's going up again.edutcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15033144261502435196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-55313005580194973792011-05-10T11:44:07.528-05:002011-05-10T11:44:07.528-05:00...our national defense was tied to our economy an...<i>...our national defense was tied to our economy and fiscal health.</i><br /><br />An economically weak nation can't afford a strong national defense. The OBL kill won't make a significant difference come Nov, 2012. The only way Obama can save himself is by backtracking on his agenda.DADvocatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04621021178600799126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-43465942865608530852011-05-10T11:42:55.341-05:002011-05-10T11:42:55.341-05:00Silver's graphs and his trope about "sepa...Silver's graphs and his trope about "separating out the factors" suggest that the issue can be analyzed as if it were a problem in physics or engineering. But to state the proposition is to refute it. Those trappings from the physical sciences don't fit his material, and do more to hinder than advance the analysis.<br /><br />When an incumbent president is seeking reelection, voters often base their choice on their overall view of the nation's state of affairs and their own place in it. For the reasons Jay Cost outlined a few days ago, Obama is in deep trouble -- voters think the country is on the wrong track, and especially don't like the way the economy has been moving since O took office. It's possible that some voters, 18 months from now, will think back to the way in which OBL was taken out and be motivated by that fact. But I think you could probably assemble all of them in a phone booth, if you could still find one.Richard Dolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12735773524374061429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-28026225113119067552011-05-10T11:42:18.328-05:002011-05-10T11:42:18.328-05:00Key word here is, "bounce." It won't...Key word here is, "bounce." It won't stay up forever. By November 2012 his ratings will have bounced several times and this one will be long forgotten.caplighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00983163610332465182noreply@blogger.com