tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post116135607836289433..comments2024-03-28T15:17:40.434-05:00Comments on Althouse: "The Bush administration will be unable to achieve its goal of a stable, democratic Iraq within a politically feasible time frame."Ann Althousehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01630636239933008807noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161643539079684982006-10-23T17:45:00.000-05:002006-10-23T17:45:00.000-05:00Well, for one, Sistani is an Iranian. Duh.for two,...Well, for one, Sistani is an Iranian. Duh.<BR/><BR/>for two, the supporters of the Shia militias in the south are, no surprise, armed, financed and more or less directed from Iran. <BR/><BR/>It would not be surprising if the Iraqi Shia would, if put in direction of a state or ministate on their own, find reasons to part ways with the Iranian Shia; but whether the Iraqi Iraqi faction would then prevail over the Iraqi Iranian faction is uncertain.<BR/><BR/>How much is it in the US interest to put that to the test?<BR/><BR/>Didn't we learn anything in Vietnam?Harry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161631540656045382006-10-23T14:25:00.000-05:002006-10-23T14:25:00.000-05:00the Iraqi Shia are unable to operate independently...<I>the Iraqi Shia are unable to operate independently, even if they wanted to, which is doubtful</I><BR/><BR/>Why are they unable to operate independently? And why is it doubtful that the current Iraqi Shiite leaders would rather be in charge of their own nation than be lackeys of a foreign power?Revenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11374515200055384226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161620928990144752006-10-23T11:28:00.000-05:002006-10-23T11:28:00.000-05:00I wish Levin was up for re-election. The guy is s...I wish Levin was up for re-election. The guy is scum. I'm not even sure he's human.aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11511239246957960529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161578289607944542006-10-22T23:38:00.000-05:002006-10-22T23:38:00.000-05:00You say that like it's a good thing.I guess you ha...You say that like it's a good thing.<BR/><BR/>I guess you hadn't noticed that Bush's policy, if you can call it a policy, is to appease Sunnis.<BR/><BR/>Anyhow, whether that part works out or not, the next step is to have the oil of southern Iraq fall under the control of Iran -- the Iraqi Shia are unable to operate independently, even if they wanted to, which is doubtful.<BR/><BR/>I'm having a hard time understanding why this is an outcome the US should want to see.Harry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161567945459373222006-10-22T20:45:00.000-05:002006-10-22T20:45:00.000-05:00The Sunni Jihadists have lost, and lost big, alrea...The Sunni Jihadists have lost, and lost big, already in Iraq. Somewhere around 1/4 of the Sunnis that were in Iraq when we invaded have left, and over 1/3 have moved - those who haven't left, have moved out of mixed Shia/Sunni neighborhoods into Sunni neighborhoods. <BR/><BR/>So, now, the Sunni Arabs are about 15% of the population of Iraq. They are faced by the other 85% who owe them no love, after decades of Saddam supported death squads, etc. Most of them have kin who died at Sunni Arab hands. To make matters worse, the military and police are even more heavily populated by Shia and Kurds. Thus, the Sunnis have 15% of the population and much less than that in guns, esp. heavier weapons. <BR/><BR/>So, what happens if we pull out? No, it wouldn't be a civil war - because if one side composes only 15% of the population and has a lower percentage of that of guns, etc., is not a civil war, but a genocide. <BR/><BR/>I should note that last month, approx. 3/4 of the Anbar tribes had signed on to helping the govt. control that area - which includes the infiltration routes from Syria. They have agreed to help patrol the roads and maintain security. And, after a lot of experience with the non-Iraqi Sunni Jihadists, they are for the most part not sympathetic. Starting maybe six months ago, the Jihadists and the Anbar tribes have engaged in repeated firefights. <BR/><BR/>The reason that our casualty tolls are up, as are the Iraqi security forces casualties, is that they are now, for the first time, operating in force in the Sunni areas of Baghdad. Before, the Iraqi Sunni terrorists would have to go into the Shiite areas to make their attacks. Now they can do it at home. Of course, they mostly don't attack directly, as they would lose badly, but use IEDs and suicide bombers instead. The problem is that this also makes it clear to the rest of their communities that they are losing, and that there is no chance any more of the Sunni Arabs retaking the country.Bruce Haydenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10815293023158025662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161450405851641712006-10-21T12:06:00.000-05:002006-10-21T12:06:00.000-05:00Cedarford sez: 'It would have been difficult in 20...Cedarford sez: 'It would have been difficult in 20-20 hindsight, if not impossible, to make them a vibrant secular democracy - given their basic nature.'<BR/><BR/>Hindsight not necessary. Before the war, Bassam Tibi, the Syrian political scientist, wrote that Muslims (he was writing primarily about Arabs) are not interested in democracy. Who coulda guessed?<BR/><BR/>If we stay a thousand years, the Arabs are not going to become Texas Republicans.<BR/><BR/>However, if we supported a Great Kurdistan, we would retrieve one of the immoral bargains made by Wilson, free 20 million people to establish their own state and make Turkey, Iran, Russia, Syria and the rest of the Arabs mad at us. All upside, no downside.Harry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161406021119760082006-10-20T23:47:00.000-05:002006-10-20T23:47:00.000-05:00it would be a massive blow in favor of the innumer...<I>it would be a massive blow in favor of the innumerable illiberal, anti-democratic, and violent forces in the middle east</I><BR/><BR/>That's right. The jihadis gloated that they defeated one superpower in Afghanistan. That emboldened them greatly. Now they will be able to boast that they defeated us -- simply by being willing to slaughter -- ours, theirs, the other guy's, everything that moves. Think how that will feed them, how they'll swell and grow, how affirmed they will be in their choice of tactics. It's a disaster, and one in which the two parties have colluded: the Bushies by arrogantly screwing up, the Dems by preferring to blame the Repubs rather than try to fix their mistakes.ambahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12042450225428891273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161395930377198022006-10-20T20:58:00.000-05:002006-10-20T20:58:00.000-05:00Stay the course.Stay the course.downtownladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08663069432164302806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161391144157028132006-10-20T19:39:00.000-05:002006-10-20T19:39:00.000-05:00The only way the Democrats can actually pull force...The only way the Democrats can actually pull forces out of Iraq is to defund the mission. Which is to say, to cease supporting the troops in a financial, material sense. Which will cement their reputation as not supporting the troops. And since a pull out would exacerbate Iraq's existing tensions, if the Dems pull all the troops out and the country falls apart, it'll never be clear if we failed in Iraq or if we were stabbed in the back by a bunch of Congressional Democrats. I told you there was a silver lining to the dems taking the House. Dolchstosslegende.Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065798213115341398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161390703180427022006-10-20T19:31:00.000-05:002006-10-20T19:31:00.000-05:00Fenris,I'm not a hundred percent sure, but I belie...Fenris,<BR/><BR/>I'm not a hundred percent sure, but I believe that the Geneva Convention obligations for occupying powers only apply so long as the occupation continues. If the Democrats cut and run and Iraq then completely goes to pieces, so far as I'm aware that won't violate the Geneva Conventions.<BR/><BR/>It'll just be a really bad idea.Revenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11374515200055384226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161389173758379552006-10-20T19:06:00.000-05:002006-10-20T19:06:00.000-05:00I would like to see the most Pelosi-like Democrats...I would like to see the most Pelosi-like Democrats win control of the House, Senate, and Presidency as soon as possible, and I would like them to fully implement their suicidal policies now so that all of us can see clearly exactly what happens when they rule. I am hunkered down in a sort of semi-"Atlas Shrugged" bunker situation and I think the best thing we can do is get out of the way and let them bring society down around our ears while there is still a large chunk of the population who were raised believing in traditional American values and who remember how good things can be. Then there'll be someone to pick up the pieces when left-liberalism is finally, and catastrophically, discredited. This slow civilizational suicide we're undergoing now, where liberals oppose most every measure to save ourselves, from defense to immigration control to free markets, is going to wipe us out like a chronic disease. Let's have the collapse quick and sharp so we can do something about it.<BR/><BR/>So I'll be rooting for the most extreme Democrats to win big, and to implement their policies fully while I watch from the sidelines. I hope they try to impeach Bush, pull out of Iraq (leading to its collapse), raise taxes (killing off the economy), implement socialist medicine, and so on and so on, so we can all see once and for all what happens when socialist/pacifist/universalist/moral relativist policies are implemented with no conservatives to blame for their failure.MnMarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01110007186831549266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161384522930282622006-10-20T17:48:00.000-05:002006-10-20T17:48:00.000-05:00Is is possible that the cultural beliefs of a clas...Is is possible that the cultural beliefs of a class of people can prevent them from seeing any value in democratic rule?<BR/><BR/>The left seems to be coming around to the view that in Iraq it is possible. But will this position cause them to change any of their ideas on the value of multi-culturalism?mtrobertsattorneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09428761048285792427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161384421331211542006-10-20T17:47:00.000-05:002006-10-20T17:47:00.000-05:00Revnant's right. The idea of invading Iraq sprung,...<I>Revnant's right. The idea of invading Iraq sprung, unbidden and simultaneously, into the minds of everyone in Congress who voted for it.</I><BR/><BR/>Please do not put your idiotic ideas in my mouth.<BR/><BR/>Obviously there were many millions of people, Bush among them, who wanted to invade Iraq. Obviously these people let their Congresscritters know that's what they wanted. But the actual responsibility for authorizing and funding the war fell squarely on Congress' shoulders.<BR/><BR/>I supported the invasion of Iraq from late 2001 onwards. I am not going to let the majority of American citizens who *also* wanted the war -- right up to the point where they realized rebuilding Iraq might be hard -- weasel out of admitting that they wanted it too.Revenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11374515200055384226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161383049949626722006-10-20T17:24:00.000-05:002006-10-20T17:24:00.000-05:00Also, replacing mediocrities with mediocrities is ...Also, replacing mediocrities with mediocrities is a tougher sell than replacing mediocrities with charismatic leaders. This was the goddamn point.Mortimer Breznyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16964027337144379262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161382908310607952006-10-20T17:21:00.000-05:002006-10-20T17:21:00.000-05:00Doyle --I am a Democrat and I dislike extremely li...Doyle --<BR/><BR/>I am a Democrat and I dislike extremely liberal Democrats representing my party because I am a centrist Democrat.Mortimer Breznyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16964027337144379262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161379832330787042006-10-20T16:30:00.000-05:002006-10-20T16:30:00.000-05:00Maybe because we don’t lack them? Guiliani, Schwar...<I>Maybe because we don’t lack them? Guiliani, Schwartzenager, McCain…there are a number of these in the Republican party.</I><BR/><BR/>Um, Giuliani and Schwarzenegger are centrists, but by no stretch of the imagination does McCain qualify. He does a good job of *acting* like he's more moderate, but if you look at his actual positions on issues they're solidly conservative. He's anti-gay-marriage, anti-abortion, anti-tax, in favor of censoring sexual content in TV, film, and internet, pro-war... etc, etc. Even the moderate poses he takes are kind of halfassed -- e.g., he's against legal torture but in favor of using it anyway when necessary.Revenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11374515200055384226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161379145192765532006-10-20T16:19:00.000-05:002006-10-20T16:19:00.000-05:00LOL. Congress in charge of war?! I know better tha...<I>LOL. Congress in charge of war?! I know better than that</I><BR/><BR/>No, dumbass. The President is in charge of the war -- like I said. Congress authorizes the war, as it did, with broad bipartisan support, in the case of <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authorization_for_Use_of_Military_Force_Against_Iraq_Resolution_of_2002" REL="nofollow">Iraq</A>. Congress is responsible for us currently being at war; the President is responsible for how we fight the war we're in.Revenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11374515200055384226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161378646543288152006-10-20T16:10:00.001-05:002006-10-20T16:10:00.001-05:00I despair that the Iraqi people just don't have it...I despair that the Iraqi people just don't have it in them to get this done (someone before said it is a murderous hellhole). If the Iraquis can't prove that to be wrong and soon- it should be divided up and get our troops the hell out of there.<BR/><BR/>And Americans should not forget the climate under which this war was undertaken. We were less than a year past 911 and we were trying to avoid Al Quaeda getting their hands on a nuke (WMD). Seems like many have forgotten that grave concern.I'm Full of Souphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00241724007440718575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161378463238641072006-10-20T16:07:00.000-05:002006-10-20T16:07:00.000-05:00Even Bush, although he’s not really a centrist, is...<I>Even Bush, although he’s not really a centrist, is not the most conservative guy on fiscal principles.</I><BR/><BR/>What, just 'cause the Debt's gone up by $3 Trillion on his watch? And because per-capita spending has jumped? You have a gift for understatement.MadisonManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01212179466758420208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161377237114099552006-10-20T15:47:00.000-05:002006-10-20T15:47:00.000-05:00LOL. Congress in charge of war?! I know better tha...LOL. Congress in charge of war?! I know better than that. I read my Yoo.Brian Doylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01652827640480365357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161376758123811182006-10-20T15:39:00.000-05:002006-10-20T15:39:00.000-05:00I thought for a minute the Bush administration was...<I>I thought for a minute the Bush administration was responsible for the Iraq War.</I><BR/><BR/>The Bush Administration is responsible for the Iraq War in the sense that the IRS is responsible for tax collection. They're in charge of dealing with it. The authorization for the war, however, was broadly bipartisan, and provided by Congress, not the executive branch, so Bush is not "responsible for the war" in the sense that, say, OJ was responsible for his wife's death.Revenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11374515200055384226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161375829128564532006-10-20T15:23:00.000-05:002006-10-20T15:23:00.000-05:00If all we have it in our power to do is keep it at...<I>If all we have it in our power to do is keep it at the current level of badness, is it worth it?</I><BR/><BR/>That's an interesting premise given the steady-to-dramatic increase in violence since we've been there.Brian Doylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01652827640480365357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161372633190590392006-10-20T14:30:00.000-05:002006-10-20T14:30:00.000-05:00Thanks Cedarford. That's a huge relief. I thought ...Thanks Cedarford. That's a huge relief. I thought for a minute the Bush administration was responsible for the Iraq War.<BR/><BR/>It was originally a war of preemptive self-defense, remember? The character of the Iraqi people shouldn't have been a major concern.Brian Doylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01652827640480365357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161371577236205212006-10-20T14:12:00.000-05:002006-10-20T14:12:00.000-05:00Mort- You ever notice how little hand wringing the...Mort- <BR/><BR/>You ever notice how little hand wringing there is about the Republican lack of "charismatic centrists"?<BR/><BR/>Your previous majority leader was a crook. Your current majority leader is an undistinguished schmuck (and a crook). And the current speaker is just a vacuous sack of Republicanness (Foley issue aside). <BR/><BR/>I'm not a huge Pelosi fan, but these guys are an easy act to follow.Brian Doylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01652827640480365357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6329595.post-1161370561512628762006-10-20T13:56:00.000-05:002006-10-20T13:56:00.000-05:00I think the Democrats, even if they win in large n...I think the Democrats, even if they win in large numbers, are did themselves a disservice by not reevaluating just who should be head of many of these committees if they take power. Having Pelosi as 3rd in line for the Presidency certainly is symbolic because she is a woman, but it is also a terrible move because she is Nancy Pelosi, an extremely liberal and airheaded partisan. These committee chair positions should go to charismatic centrists and (to be sure) should reflect diversity. The missing part here is the "charismatic centrist" part, and it's the part that allows Republicans to scare up turnout. If the Democratic win isn't as big as hoped -- or if it magically converts into a narrow loss, now you can't say you didn't know the reason why.Mortimer Breznyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16964027337144379262noreply@blogger.com