May 5, 2017

"Forget Britain’s vote for Brexit. Forget President Trump’s November win. If Marine Le Pen somehow defeats Emmanuel Macron in France’s presidential runoff vote on Sunday..."

"... it may be the biggest electoral shock in the West so far this century" (WaPo).
A Le Pen victory “means the collapse of the E.U., because the E.U. without France doesn’t make any sense,” Gerard Araud, France’s ambassador in Washington, said in a conversation with Today’s WorldView earlier this year. “And it means the collapse of the euro and a financial crisis, which will have consequences throughout the world.”
I don't know how the shock-o-meter works or whether it matters, but I can see that there are 2 kinds of shock: 1. The shock of surprise when something you believed was very unlikely happens, 2. The shock at the extent of the impact of the event.

Araud's quote points up Type 2 Shock. But the "biggest electoral shock" characterization applies even more to Type 1 shock, since Macron is 20 points ahead in the polls. But:
Reports suggest that many disaffected French voters across the political spectrum may abstain. Those voters already rejected France’s traditional conservative and center-left parties amid a tidal wave of public dissatisfaction. Macron’s boosters see his independent movement — known by its slogan “En Marche,” or “Onward” — as an opportunity to rejuvenate the country with a new “radical centrism.” His critics, principally Le Pen, but also some on the left, cast the former banker as an out-of-touch member of the financial elite beholden to tired neo-liberal dogma....

A poll this week found that some 65 percent of [those who voted for the leftist Mélenchon in the first round] would not vote for the centrist candidate, preferring to spoil their ballots or not turn up at all.
Now, a really weird thing that happened is Barack Obama endorsed Macron!



Should one country's leader try to influence a presidential election in another country? After all the talk about Putin's (never spoken) preference in the American election, we get America's ex-President putting out a video endorsement of a candidate in the French election? Is that right, and, more importantly, is that what the French people are looking for as they make their decision? Obama says the French election "matters to the entire world," but the extent to which France should lean into globalism seems to lie at the core of the decision to be made. I can't peer into the mind of the French, but I can wonder if Obama's intrusion won't backfire, adding to the very anxieties that Le Pen has emphasized, that France needs to remain French, the French version of Trump's America first.

ADDED: A new poll has Macron at 62% and Le Pen at 38%, and a separate poll has 25% abstaining. Do the math under the assumption that all the abstentions are in the Macron 62%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but under that hypothetical, Macron loses: He ends up with 49.3% percent. It's strange that the poll that's getting reported has Macron and Le Pen's numbers adding up to 100% when it's obvious that there are some abstentions.

125 comments:

Rene' Saunce said...

Poor Obama. Hillary, his corrupt successor, lost, and now all he can do is take big money from wall street, become Clinton II, and campaign for the global left.

AllenS said...

STFU, Barry.

Mike Sylwester said...

The way the European Union works is that Angela Merkel can import a million foreigners into Germany and then immediately distribute them to all the other European countries.

hawkeyedjb said...

Almost none of the predicted events would happen with a Le Pen victory. She would be a president with little support in the Assemblee, and may face a split government from the start. Excessive hyperbole.

Rene' Saunce said...

Le Pen will not win, so this is a way for Obama to lick his wounds and score a solid vicarious "win".


Corrupt Liar Hillary still a loser. hahahahahaha.

madAsHell said...

Why would anyone solicit an endorsement from Obama?

mockturtle said...

The way the European Union works is that Angela Merkel can import a million foreigners into Germany and then immediately distribute them to all the other European countries.

Right, Mike. I liked the quote from yesterday that said, more or less, regardless of how the election goes, France will be ruled by a woman. Le Pen or Merkel.

MaxedOutMama said...

Macron will win, but France is obviously going to have to change direction, and I think the same uncertainties will prevail after a Macron victory.

Le Pen can say anything she wants, but the French Parliament would not go along with her stated goals, so it is not entirely clear what electing her would achieve, even if one fully supported her ideas of pulling out of NATO, basically telling the Germans to f--k off, and having an Euro referendum.

Macron will be loved and cuddled by the Germans until he has to make some difficult decisions, and then the amour will die a natural death.

I agree about the stupidity of the Obama rec. I will be cynical, and say that he is doing it more for self-aggrandizement (after all, Macron is more than 20% ahead in the polls) and to seem relevant on the world stage than for any other reason.

And those French polls were quite accurate in the first round. 88% of voters have made up their minds, and Le Pen is down 20%. It doesn't matter if Melanchon's voters won't vote Macron - they would have to roll in for Le Pen in a wholesale way. Only a minority of them will.

Martha said...

An Obama endorsement is a kiss of death.

Ask any Democrat.

Todd said...

“And it means the collapse of the euro and a financial crisis, which will have consequences throughout the world.”

Will have? Will have? What about the ongoing financial issues in Greece, Spain, Italy, etc.?

Germany is basically paying these EU nations an allowance to keep them afloat and (as a semi-famous blogger is fond of saying) "what can't go on forever, won't". None of these countries are willing to make the "tough" decisions (like America has any standing to talk right now, amiright?) so the only think that will happen is that they will continue down this path until Germany gets ownership of them all by default. Hey? Is this how WWIII is fought and won? By the other countries simply going bankrupt and becoming German property, without Germany having to fire a single shot?

Bob Boyd said...

"Is that right, and, more importantly, is that what the French people are looking for?"

And is it worth $400,000?

Curious George said...

I, I, I, I, I, I, I.

tcrosse said...

Meanwhile, across the channel, the Tories cleaned up in local elections.

Tank said...

After all the BS with Trump and Russia, I think Zero did this just to troll us. Ask Bibi about "other countries" interfering in elections. Never forget, in addition to being a con man, Zero is a first class dick.

Dick Move.


Lewis Wetzel said...

He is an investment banker! And a socialist! And his name is Macron with no macron!

Original Mike said...

"Should one country's leader try to influence a presidential election in another country? After all the talk about Putin's (never spoken) preference in the American election, we get America's ex-President putting out a video endorsement of a candidate in the French election? Is that right,[?]"

I'm sure Inga will be along any minute now to heap shame on Obama.

EDH said...

Can't remember Obama ever before using the word "liberal" before?

Even when applied to shared "values" it struck me as Obama allowing the mask to slip ever so slightly now that he's in his post-presidency.

Sydney said...

I can't peer into the mind of the French, but I can wonder if Obama's intrusion won't backfire ....

Yeah, most people don't like foreign politicians telling them what's good for them. When I heard Obama endorsed Macron, I figured there goes his lead. I expect LePen to win now. (Unless Obama's endorsement was only for the benefit of the American left and not broadcast in France. The left does like to display their righteousness, even if not in any meaningful way.)

Hagar said...

It is different when they do it.

MayBee said...

Obama's interference in the Brexit vote- threatening the UK that trade treaties would suffer- didn't go his way.

But yes, it all makes the hysteria in the "Russian Interference" pretty.....hysterical.

CWJ said...

Either Obama is needily desperate for relevance, or he's the puppet front of larger forces I've always thought him to be, or both. So if the latter, who funded this video? I clicked through, but didn't see any hint of a sponsor. French subtitles I could understand, but why English?

BTW, Althouse, he's one country's former leader.

The Cracker Emcee said...

Hyperbole indeed. La Pen doesn't stand a chance, but upon Macron's victory the usual suspects will claim the tide of Trumpism is receding. Heads, back in the sand.

rhhardin said...

Say cheese.

Original Mike said...

At least Obama isn't financing Le Pen's opponent like he did to Netanyahu.

exhelodrvr1 said...

And even more interference from him in Israel's election.

Darrell said...

Le Pen for le win!

traditionalguy said...

Winning by Fake News is the EU way. All lies all the time always controls the silly election voters. That is the system DJT beat after Farage beat it. Can LePen make it a trifecta?

Listening to experts and polls means none could ever win. Hmmm?

John said...

I never thought LePenn had much of a shot. I figured when it came to it, the French didn't have the guts to vote for her. Then i saw Obama endorsing Macron and now I would be shocked if she loses. No one has the reverse Midas Touch like Obama. The man has a perfect record of picking losers. It is hard to see that ending now and LaPenn losing.

wwww said...


I wouldn't read too much into it unless you have a real sense of how something is playing out in French politics. I'm not watching French news sources so I don't know if it got picked up or publicized.

Likewise w/ reading American sensibilities onto the French. different societies not predictable if relying on a likely American response.

Freeman Hunt said...

In other news: Mary Kay Letourneau Surprised to Find First Lady Dreams Not Dashed

Bob Boyd said...

@ John

I was just thinking the same thing. Obama is like Goldfinger, only with shit.
Maybe LePen paid him to endorse Macron.

Big Mike said...

Correction, Althouse. He's the former President of the United States; Obama has never had much leadership ability.

rhhardin said...

Armstrong and Getty propose a Federal program to feed all hungry puppies in the street.

A new cabinet department will be needed to manage the flow of funds.

Chris N said...

When your ideals and ideology identify political power as a necessary tool to enact your ideals, and where change is an urgent necessity to be brought about by you, with undeniable and secure knowledge, you sure hate to give that political power up. The lofty abstraction of The People is counting on you, giving you identity, while you give The People hope and change.

You can't imagine the quality of your ideas might be engendering this response (for you have probably built your entire worldview on the very opponents you summon). This is the bed you made. You are still a world influencer.

This guy 'wrote' two books about himself before 40, tightly controlled the image of himself and family, apparently loves giving speeches, and is REALLY dependent on all this activity. It seems to have been the focus of his entire adult life.

My hope is that such a man, with such ideas, becomes a pathetic figure, smaller and smaller, continually measured by performance and consequences.

That seems fair.

rhhardin said...

Malevolence and denigration are the two chief characteristics of the French mind.

- Philippe Sollers, _Women_

Jay Vogt said...

tcrosse said..."Meanwhile, across the channel, the Tories cleaned up in local elections."

Beat the spread too even accounting for UKIP collapse.

For Obama, it's just an opportunity to get back on the winning side of the field- pretty transparent and understandable . Easy win for him.
Le Pen (other than her pristine FU value) is really not a good solution for anyone. I did like her "Either way France will be ruled by a woman" line though.

Peter said...

"2. The shock at the extent of the impact of the event."

A victory for Le Pen would be a huge upset, but, but France is just not that all important; it's been a long time since France was a first-rate power in the world.

What the world is really waiting for is to see whether France (since 1789, that most secular of countries) becomes Europe's first Islamic Republic by 2050 or so, as some have predicted.

Rick said...

A Le Pen victory “means the collapse of the E.U., because the E.U. without France doesn’t make any sense,” Gerard Araud, France’s ambassador in Washington, said in a conversation with Today’s WorldView earlier this year.

I hope they're publishing this is France. This outcome would be worth whatever else Le Pen does. The fearmongering is nonsense of course. The left can't support its policies so they resort to FUD (fear-uncertainty-doubt).

If they want to go back and try common currency without ceding their sovereignty that's fine.
This time they'll know they need to protect themselves from to unelected left wing aristocrats primarily interested in building their own power.

rhhardin said...

Le pen de ma tante est sur la table.

Rick said...

That said I don't think she wins.

John said...

One of the great documentaries of the last 50 years is a French film called The Sorrow and the Pity. It is a 1969 documentary about the Nazi occupation of France. The great thing about the film is that it was made when the events it describes were still within living memory and you could talk to people who actually lived through them. There are about a hundred mesmerizing and memorable scenes in the film.

LaPenn's possible victory brings to mind the scenes where they ask various French and German fascists why they joined the fascist movement. All of them say quite sincerely that they did so out of fear of Communism and because they felt that the fascists were the only ones who were going to protect the country from communism.

None of them seem to say this as a rationalization for their actions. The mainstream politicians in France and Germany had failed in the most basic duty of protecting their population from fanatics and people rationally turned to the first group that stood up offering to defend them. Today the threat is not communism but Islamism. And the mainstream politicians of Europe are failing in their most basic duty to provide security to their populations more so than even their predecessors in the 1930s.

LaPenn is not a fascist. If she doesn't win or fails once in office if she does, it is just a matter of time before a real fascist shows up offering to do the job "respectable" European politicians refuse to do. The irony of that is that Muslims in France, if they knew what was good for them, would be voting for LaPenn so as to prevent the evil that will come next if she fails.

Sebastian said...

"Should one country's leader try to influence a presidential election in another country?" Depends. If it's progs helping progs, yes. Otherwise, no. Prog political ethics, like their general "ethics," are entirely situational. Remains to be seen how proggy Macron, former ally of Hollande, turns out to be in fact.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Macron will win. Something about Frogs in a pot of hot water.

Sean Gleeson said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MikeR said...

Too many articles miss the point about the "nationalist uprisings" in France, in the US, and in many other European countries. Le Pen will probably lose, but that won't make the issues that she is pushing go away. Many millions of Frenchmen and women obviously feel that immigration is the most important issue their country faces. That's not going away just because the median French voter isn't quite as concerned as they are.
In the United States, the only reason anyone is paying any attention to Donald Trump and his tens of millions of followers is that they barely won the election. If they had lost, the entire establishment was all set to proclaim that their deplorable policies had been roundly rejected by the American people. Because only 48% of them felt that way. Good approach to tearing a nation in half.
Wake up before it's too late. These issues are real and a whole lot of people care about them a lot.

WisRich said...

Obama's endorsement just proves the Dem's outrage over foreign influence in elections is all partisan bullshit.

DanTheMan said...

>>What the world is really waiting for is to see whether France (since 1789, that most secular of countries) becomes Europe's first Islamic Republic by 2050 or so, as some have predicted.

My bet would be Sweden, as they have already surrendered. They are *already* talking about "the new country", and how Swedes have to let go of their traditional values and adapt to a new culture.

The French will fight. They may well lose, but they will fight.

rhhardin said...

Fifty million Frenchmen and women can't be wrong.

gspencer said...

Proof of the effectiveness of the One was his personal appearance before the OIC to push for Chicago's bid to be the host of the 2016 Olympics.

exiledonmainstreet said...

I can't peer into the mind of the French, but I can wonder if Obama's intrusion won't backfire ....

Yeah, most people don't like foreign politicians telling them what's good for them. When I heard Obama endorsed Macron, I figured there goes his lead. I expect LePen to win now.
5/5/17, 8:28 AM

While Obama does have a shit Midas touch, this prediction seems safe. It's like picking the Patriots to beat the Cleveland Browns.

Jay Vogt said...

DanTheMan said... "The French will fight. They may well lose, but they will fight."

I hope you are right, because I love the French, but you reminded me of the old joke:

Q: How many Frenchmen does it take to defend Paris:

A: No one knows. It's never been tried.

Remember to tip your waitresses.

dda6ga dda6ga said...

It isn't really shocking until they come for your rice bowl...

Sean Gleeson said...

Ooops! I was wrong. For some damned reason 62 - 25 equals 37. I have no idea how I got that other number. You were right. I retract my erroneous math.

mockturtle said...

As with kings of old, whose sycophants told them how wonderful, wise and influential they are, so Obama believes the same lies about himself.

John said...

If the French fight, they will win. Muslims haven't won a war in 500 years and that isn't about to change. To the extent they have "won' it has been because they are willing to die to larger extent than their enemies have been willing to murder them, not because they "won" in any positive way. The rise of suicide bombing and the corresponding dehumanization of Muslims that has caused is going to put an end to any qualms about murdering Muslims.

exiledonmainstreet said...

"The French will fight. They may well lose, but they will fight"

Unfortunately, the demographics are against them. The Muslim population is young and energetic. The native French are old. The same is true of the entire Continent. Europe is decadent and exhausted.

It's profoundly depressing to see great civilizations die in slow motion.

Ann Althouse said...

"Assume for simplicity that there are 100 voters. 62 of them would vote for Macron and 38 would vote for LePen. Then, assume 25 of Macron's voters abstain, and none of LePen's voters abstain. In that case, Macron still has 43 votes to LePen's 38."

I keep subtracting 25 from 62 and getting 37.

Ann Althouse said...

I mean, I see what you are doing, taking 75% of Macron's percentage, but I don't think that's right.

Ann Althouse said...

If we picture 100 people and 25 of them are not voting, but all are naming X or Y as the preferable candidate, then the final vote is taken from the 75 who are in fact voting. If 38 of the 100 have said they are for Y, and they all vote in the set of 75 who do vote, then Y gets 51%.

Darrell said...

Macron for le pen---the penitentiary. Tax evasion.

DanTheMan said...

>>The rise of suicide bombing

Suicide attacks historically are a tool of the losing side, yes?
Is there an example of a war won by suicide attacks? A battle here or there, of course, but I can't think of a winning side that practiced this to any degree...

HoodlumDoodlum said...

Ann Althouse said...After all the talk about Putin's (never spoken) preference in the American election, we get America's ex-President putting out a video endorsement of a candidate in the French election? Is that right,

I'll bet you're shocked--shocked!--to find that gambling is going on in Rick's Place, huh?
The Left and the Media are full of shit. They don't really object to foreign governments trying to influence elections; hell, several foreign countries worked to influence our election in Hillary's favor (Ukranie, notably) and none of the smart people much care. They DO care, of course, when they think any of that foreign influence might have helped a non-Left candidate.

That's the actual standard, plainly. It's not "did this foreign power try to influence our domestic affairs," it's "did X help the Right in any way?" If yes, well, that thing is bad, and evil, and anti-American. It's really the same thing when you talk about special interest groups, or even politically-active churches, etc. The Left gets all sorts of support from those kinds of groups and the IRS et al. don't object--but a Tea Party group of the same kind might help the Right and therefore all efforts must be made to stymie those Tea Party groups.

It's naked partisanship, ma'am. As an explanatory variable it's much more accurate than any other. Trying to find consistency in the purported principles the Left espouses...well, "fool's errand" is probably a dead metaphor you dislike, so let's just say if using the Occam's razor of "naked partisanship" will give the correct understanding with much less fuss.

J Scott said...

Call me old fashioned but if you are going to endorse a politician and then exhort people to vote for that politician you should probably try to do it in the language they speak.

exiledonmainstreet said...

Q: How many Frenchmen does it take to defend Paris:

A: No one knows. It's never been tried."

They defended themselves pretty well in WWI and at a very high cost. Americans have a certain amnesia about WWI, but I believe it was the start of the end for Europe.

Jacques Barzun, who passed away just a few years ago, has spoken of the feeling of hope and excitement over the future felt by pre-WWI Europeans. That was lost forever when men started dying in the millions in trenches.

Ann Althouse said...

"Ooops! I was wrong. For some damned reason 62 - 25 equals 37. I have no idea how I got that other number. You were right. I retract my erroneous math."

Okay! Thanks. Just reading that now. I'm glad I also answered your question of how you got that other number: "I see what you are doing, taking 75% of Macron's percentage..."

DanTheMan said...

Voting for Macron?

Ç'est ne pas le peine.

Merci! Je suis ici toute la semaine...

DanTheMan said...

>>They defended themselves pretty well in WWI

The taxi drivers of Paris, circa 1914, agree....

John said...

Unfortunately, the demographics are against them. The Muslim population is young and energetic. The native French are old. The same is true of the entire Continent. Europe is decadent and exhausted.

Young and energetic just means you need more bullets. The Jews in Europe were pretty young and energetic too. What good did it do them? The other advantage that the French have is that the most energetic Muslims want to die. Suicide bombing is a utterly useless weapon once your enemy stops being terrorized and starts to fight back. It takes you best and most committed people and wastes them on pointless acts of terror. Suicide bombings only work as terror weapons against civilians. Once the shooting starts and the other side gets serious about killing you, terror weapons have no effect except to make your enemy more comfortable with and determined to murder you. The biggest problem in war is getting people to get over their natural aversion to killing. You do that by dehumanizing the enemy. Suicide bombing does more to dehumanize Muslims in the rest of the world's eyes than decades of propaganda could.

Marc Puckett said...

Guido Fawkes used to have lots of fun describing Gordon 'Jonah' Brown's 'reverse Midas touch'. From what I see, Mme Le Pen has lost but one can always hope.

Herb said...

"Should one country's leader try to influence a presidential election in another country?"

First, Obama is no longer this country's leader...

Second, Obama clearly thinks he has the right to try to influence presidential elections in other countries, just look at what he did in Israel in their last election.

Fortunately he'll probably have as much success in France as he did in Israel.

Herb

mockturtle said...

Call me old fashioned but if you are going to endorse a politician and then exhort people to vote for that politician you should probably try to do it in the language they speak.

He did end his speech with En marche! Vive la France!, I think. Perhaps he should have sung La Marseillaise à la Al Green.

David said...

The Obama endorsement is pure 100% virtue signaling. The assistance to Macron is negligible, perhaps counterproductive. It's all about Obama.

mockturtle said...

It's profoundly depressing to see great civilizations die in slow motion.

It really is, exiled. Right now the EU, which could have been a stronghold against the islamization of Europe, is Europe's Achilles' heel. Only by each nation re-establishing its own national identity can the tide be turned.

Jay Vogt said...

exiledonmainstreet said...'They defended themselves pretty well in WWI and at a very high cost."

Indeed. . . . La Guerre jusqu'au bout! But, that was a century ago.

. . . . what, too soon?

wendybar said...

I hope Le Pen wins just to wipe the smug look on Obamas face off....

exiledonmainstreet said...

"Jacques Barzun, who passed away just a few years ago, has spoken of the feeling of hope and excitement over the future felt by pre-WWI Europeans."

Jeez, scratch that "has." "He spoke of the feelings of hope and excitement..."

I inevitably notice typos and grammatical errors after I hit "Publish Your Comment."

Larry J said...

While I'll be very surprised if Le Pen wins, we'll just have to wait until Sunday night to see how the vote count goes. It wouldn't surprise me if the margins are a lot closer than what is being reported. Many Le Pen supporters are probably unwilling to cooperate with the pollsters or tell strangers how they're going to vote. Republicans have been doing the same thing, which is why so few of last year's polls were accurate.

mockturtle said...

Larry, this is so true. I don't answer polls and I imagine there are a lot of others who don't. And most of us were in the Trump camp. Just as juries are made up largely of people who want to be on a jury, so poll participation disproportionately favors people who like taking polls.

exiledonmainstreet said...

"Call me old fashioned but if you are going to endorse a politician and then exhort people to vote for that politician you should probably try to do it in the language they speak. "

That's a landmine with the French though, since they tend to get snotty if your French is less than perfect. Remember Mitt Romney's atrocious French from the 2012 campaign?

That's another maddening thing about the frogs. Their government spends, or used to spend, a lot of money promoting the French language abroad, but when you go there and try to speak it, the common response is to act as if you've just jammed a pencil in their ear. Then they speak English to you.

mockturtle said...

I inevitably notice typos and grammatical errors after I hit "Publish Your Comment."

Me, too, exiled. I used to delete and re-post but with my right arm in a cast, it's too much trouble so I just let the slips fall where they may.

Jay Vogt said...

exiledonmainstreet said..." . . . .since they tend to get snotty if your French is less than perfect."

I've found this not to be the case. My French is far, far from perfect, yet it's always (almost) been warmly received and gently corrected.

Not sure if you've done it or not, but given your apparent interest, you would probably enjoy the WW I museum in KCMO - especially during this centenary.

Roughcoat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
exiledonmainstreet said...


"I've found this not to be the case. My French is far, far from perfect, yet it's always (almost) been warmly received and gently corrected."

I must have picked the wrong French people to speak French to. Generally speaking, I was treated very nicely by them, but I did become afraid to attempt to speak French there.

Roughcoat said...

Paris held the Prussian army at bay in a siege lasting for the most part of 5 months during the winter of 1870-71. The besieged French national army and the citizens of Paris fought valiantly and held out against enormous odds before starvation forced their capitulation. The populace was literally starving in the streets. The Prussians could not crack the city's defenses with the application of military force: the defenders were never defeated in battle.

Another commentator pointed out that the French Army defeated the Germans at the gates of Paris in autumn 1914 in the Battle of the Marne, one of the biggest and most consequential battles in the history of organized warfare. The French Sixth Army, formed in Paris and transported by Parisian taxi drivers to the front lines to attack into the flank of the German Army, play a key role in achieving that victory.

Disparaging the French as military incompetents and cowards is tiresome, wrong, and stupid.

tim in vermont said...

Maybe he should have given the speech in Austrian! That would have showed us!

DanTheMan said...

>>since they tend to get snotty if your French is less than perfect.

My experience is the exact opposite as well. At least in my experience, your attempts to speak their language are appreciated.

If you want to be treated rudely by the French, walk into a shop and just start ordering what you want. In English. :)

Colonel Mustard said...

"Fifty million Frenchmen and women can't be wrong."

Seriously?

eric said...

I dunno who will win, seems obvious from polls it'll be Macron.

However, I'd love to see Le Pen win if for no other reason than to bring more doubt into polling.

Polling controls how we vote. It's not meant to reflect public sentiment, it's meant to lead it. We use polling to try and tell others what they should do.

I'd love to get rid of polls.

Roughcoat said...

"That men who had retreated for ten days, that men lying on the ground half-dead from exhaustion were able to pick up their rifles again and attack at the sound of the bugle: that was something we had never reckoned with; that was a possibility we had never discussed in our war colleges."

That's General Alexander von Kluck, commander of the German First Army during the Battle of Marne, writing in his memoirs about the astonishing victory achieved by the French in that epochal encounter.

No more "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" nonsense, please.

readering said...

Obama happens to be very popular in France. Putin in America? Not so much.

furious_a said...

Former President Obama is trying to do for France what he as President did for Syria and Libya.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

How does 49.3% beat 38%? France doesn't have the electoral college.

You can get 6 to 1 odds for Le Pen in the betting markets. That's a great bet if you think it's really 50/50.

I think the political play here is that Macron wants the center right to think large number of socialists will sit out, so they have to vote for Macron if they don't want Le Pen. And he wants the socialists to think they have to vote for him to stop Le Pen because large numbers of the center right will sit out. He loses if both groups sit out, but then they get Le Pen. He's created a prisoner's dilemma.

You have to vote for me even if you don't really like me because otherwise that woman you hate might get in. That was Trump's strategy too, right?

Etienne said...

Fake news. She's just a candidate. I don't understand why they want to make her into la Pucelle d'Orléans.

She doesn't have an Army or a Monarch.

She's a nationalist. That's what scares Europe. The Germans want everyone to squat.

Obama wants the French to squat.

Colonel Mustard said...

A smile and polite greeting in the local lingo is much appreciated in France or just about any other country.

Your next best move is, "May I speak English?" Unless you are in the deepest boondocks, your 'host' will be greatly relieved and your transaction will go forward swiftly and accurately. Caveat: Never say, "Do you speak English?" This is kinda like asking, "Are you intelligent?"

Bill said...

I can wonder if Obama's intrusion won't backfire

It doesn't matter. The ego has landed (again).

mockturtle said...

Etienne asserts: She's a nationalist. That's what scares Europe. The Germans want everyone to squat.

Nationalism scares the EU--most specifically, Merkel. You can't blame Germany for not wanting to be left holding the bag. But I doubt most Europeans fear nationalism as much as they fear islamization.

buwaya said...

To be fair, the Germans before Paris in 1870-71 didnt try very hard to crack the defenses. They were more concerned that:
a) The French would break out, seeing as the French defenders, nearly all raw militia, were more numerous than the German besiegers, if far worse trained. The German approach was to be very conservative with their troops, stand off, and not get them into a vulnerable position to be counterattacked by a superior force at close quarters. The French attempted several large scale sallies with great local superiority, but were defeated by the defensive terrain the Germans had selected and their own lack of skill.
b) The French armies outside Paris, like the Army of Orleans, would either defeat the German covering forces and force the abandonment of the siege, or that they would compromise German lines of communication and thereby also force the besiegers to withraw. And the French did try this with great energy and heavy casualties, but were defeated time and again because these armies too were mainly poorly trained militia.

The loss of nearly the entire French professional military at Metz and Sedan made the French position very difficult, they had to create armies out of civilians. On the other hand the Germans were deep in enemy territory at the end of long supply lines which could sustain only a limited force. They had a tiger by the tail, and had to win before France sorted itself out.

Chuck said...

The French election is not a referendum on EU membership, as was the Brexit vote. So why would a Le Pen victory mean a France pullout of the EU? Is the French presidency vested with such unilateral and unchecked powers? I honestly don't know but it seems unlikely to me.

Todd said...

mockturtle said...
I inevitably notice typos and grammatical errors after I hit "Publish Your Comment."

Me, too, exiled. I used to delete and re-post but with my right arm in a cast, it's too much trouble so I just let the slips fall where they may.

5/5/17, 10:01 AM


The wife and I noticed a distinct difference between the French and Parisians, when we were "in country" in the late 80s and early 90s. The French were quite friendly and accommodating whereas the Parisians were (basically) rude. We did not take it personally though as it appeared that they were uniformly rude to everyone, not just Americans.

mockturtle said...

Non sequitur, Todd?

mockturtle said...

they had to create armies out of civilians.

So did Cromwell and he kicked some serious ass.

Etienne said...

Todd said...The wife and I noticed a distinct difference between the French and Parisians.

Of course. Many Parisians are not really French. They are half-breeds and immigrants. Once you leave the metro and the high rise tenement's, used to house the moslums, and orientals, you start finding normal people.

Of course, all experiences in Europe are tempered by their crazy people. Just like in America, they let the insane free-range.

n.n said...

France is a deciding factor to sustain CAIR forced by Obama, Clinton et al's social justice adventurism and delegation of responsibility in an axis of elective regime changes along the trail of tears from Libya to Syria to Ukraine.

buwaya puti said...

Cromwell had years, France in 1870 had weeks.

Mick said...

Fake News again. The Left wing NEVER admits they are wrong nor do they admit defeat. Same tactics used as in US and Brexit elections. Have you seen #MacronGate? News is out that Macron is a tax evader with accounts in the Cayman Islands-- which of course Twitter and the Fake News media are desperately trying to suppress (where have you been on this "law prof"?)

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/05/breaking-macron-busted-lied-tax-evasion-4chan-pol-posts-images-macrons-off-shore-bank-account/

All the right people are against Le Pen, including the Usurper Hussein Obama. The French are not stupid. They see their country being overrun by 6th Century savages, camping in their streets, and demanding to be accommodated:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9JxEC5Rq9Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUEs0Mzaa6E

If not Le Pen, then the French are committing suicide. Le Pen will win-- you doubt me?

cubanbob said...

The polls are probably right, I doubt Le Pen will win but let's not overlook that even a few years ago the thought of a Le Pen even being in the runoff would have been laughable. If I'm not mistaken Macron has taken positions on immigration that are not far from Le Pen's so the French voters who might have voted for Le Pen's position on immigration but were otherwise nervous voting her can now feel it is OK to vote for Macron. No matter who wins the French election, Merkel will have to give in on the Muslim immigration issue if she wants to keep the EU intact.

Mike said...

Original Mike said...
At least Obama isn't financing Le Pen's opponent like he did to Netanyahu.


Objection. Assumes facts not in evidence. He could very well have sent $$ to Macron.. or Rhodes or Rice or Power or any number of willing lackeys.

Bay Area Guy said...

I hope Le Pen wins, and I have no idea if she will win, and it doesn't matter what I think the outcome will be, and I have done nothing to assist, even incrementally, her quest to win.

But, again, I do hope she wins, and if I were French, I would vote for her.

As for Obama's endorsement - tacky as usual. For the Left, it's always about the will to power, the corollary of which is, smash any obstacle on the pathway to power.


buwaya puti said...

Her dad was in a runoff against Chirac, thoroughly hopeless in that case though. It's true the daughter is in a far better position.

Unknown said...

I wonder if comey would have an opinion on who obama wants to win. He was able to read putins mind.

Mick said...

cubanbob said...
"The polls are probably right,"

Nonsense...

Mick said...

Globalist Cuck. Macron was seduced by his teacher/ wife when he was 15.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6H0cjIN4gw

mockturtle said...

Globalist Cuck. Macron was seduced by his teacher/ wife when he was 15.

And, if elected, he will also be Merkel's boy toy.

Mary Beth said...

If Macron really is 20 points ahead, why would he want an endorsement by Obama? I'm assuming that it was not done without Macron's prior knowledge and approval. This makes me think their internal polls show a much tighter race.

Mary Beth said...

Unless Obama's endorsement was only for the benefit of the American left and not broadcast in France.

Macron tweeted it - https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/860111061340610561

Roughcoat said...

buwaya @11:08 AM:

All true, but beside the point I was making.

Mick said...

Macron has secret accounts in the Cayman Islands.
https://twitter.com/broderick/status/860417948539920385/photo/1

#MacronGate

Media ignores all proof that Macron is the typical Globalist Criminal and publishes Fake Polls.

Le Pen will win. Doubt me?

furious_a said...

Le Pen will win. Doubt me?

Sure, she'll win like Trump will run the table in WI/MI/PA.

Drago said...

Left Bank of the Charles: "How does 49.3% beat 38%?"

It involves calculus in the complex plane plus a bit of degaussing.

It ain't pretty.

Bad Lieutenant said...

furious_a said...
Le Pen will win. Doubt me?

Sure, she'll win like Trump will run the table in WI/MI/PA.

5/5/17, 2:03 PM


Desolé, but I have the true word from the portfolio manager at a French hedge fund here in New York.

Macron's defalcations are being well hidden by the French media, because fascist, much better than our MSM covered for Hillary, though they may come into play later; he doubts Le Pen will exceed 40% - her debate performance was not well regarded. All are in league against her.

However, the parliament has to be elected in (I think) June and the vote may signal that outcome, and it is very possible that a rightist legislature would upend many of Macron's plans and specifically, impede his formation of a government.

Bay Area Guy said...

Mick did pick the Trump victory!

So, Hell No, I don't doubt Mick -- but I do doubt the French citizens.........

If Le Pen wins, Althouse should appoint Mick as honorary co-blogger for 1 full year.

JaimeRoberto said...

It's not interference when we do it.

If she loses she'll be able to blame an unfriendly foreign leader and misogyny.

mockturtle said...

If Le Pen wins, Althouse should appoint Mick as honorary co-blogger for 1 full year.

Or award him the Nostradamus Prize for 'seer of the century'.

Mick said...

#MacronGate

Leaked documents point to offshore accounts held by Macron-- Tax Evasion

http://disobedientmedia.com/new-leak-reveals-emails-documents-from-macron-and-affiliated-staff-members/

Mick said...

Macron now confirming that his emails were leaked.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-leaks-idUSKBN1812AZ?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

http://archive.is/eQtrm