March 13, 2016

The new YouGov/CBS poll has Sanders up over Clinton (by 2) in Illinois...

... and Trump equal to Kasich in Ohio.

There's also a Marist poll out this morning, and it has Kasich leading Trump by 6 in Ohio and Clinton up by 6 in Illinois.

FiveThirtyEight has incorporated these new polls already and still gives Hillary a 96% chance of winning Illinois. Kasich has a 74% chance of winning Ohio.

40 comments:

Michael K said...

The results Tuesday will have a lot to do with whether Trump wins the nomination. He needs to keep winning.

chickelit said...

Bernie could probably clinch Illinois if he just did the right thing. But instead he'll do the "Wright thing."

pm317 said...

Cook County will do what Jarrett/Obama will tell them to do. If they want Sanders, they will get Sanders.

BDNYC said...

Sadly, I predict Trump effectively clinches the nomination with wins in Florida, Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina. Ohio doesn't even really matter.

To continue with all the 1968 comparisons: what would happen to Trump's delegates if, say, something really awful happens at one of his rallies and he can no longer be a candidate? What happened to Bobby Kennedy's delegates? Were they free to just support whomever?

pm317 said...

In a sense, what happened on Friday with regard to Trump is an intimidation of Clinton also. Kind of blackmailing Clinton, 'if you don't appease us, we will prop up Sanders.'

Birkel said...

Remind me again of Mrs. Clinton's chances to win Michigan as viewed from two days before the voting.

madAsHell said...

Brown number theory with a colon : operator.

Birkel said...

Aspirin reduces fever, pm317, even if it is coming from your fevered brain.

Birkel said...

Love the dog pick, madAsHell.

dbp said...

I think Obama realizes that Clinton is a time bomb waiting to blow-up in his face.

If he allows her to be indicted just before the election, Obama will be reviled by the left forever. If he suppresses it and has the FBI directer resign, he has a nice juicy scandal to end his presidency on.

Either way, the Democrats lose the White House. On the other hand, Bernie has a reasonable chance of winning, especially if his opponent ends up being Trump.

Chuck said...

For no particular reason, and mostly because I just don't care too much for Nate Silver (in addition to the other Democrats), let's remember that he called Michigan a "greater than 99% chance" of a Clinton win, right before she lost.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

AReasonableMan said...

BDNYC said...
what would happen to Trump's delegates if, say, something really awful happens at one of his rallies and he can no longer be a candidate?


Unbelievable.

khesanh0802 said...

Does anyone here think that Rubio's actions re Ohio aren't having huge negative impact in FL? While I hate to see the R party commit slow suicide as it tries to "Stop Trump", I love the irony of the establishment types being forced to back Cruz.

Fabi said...

This has not been a banner year for Nate and his 538 crew. The Michigan debacle must have them recalibrating their dials something fierce.

BDNYC said...

It's not unbelievable, ARM. You saw what happened in St. Louis and Chicago, right? And then yesterday a protester rushed the stage and nearly got at him. Now Trump is saying he'll consider paying the legal expenses for the old man who suckerpunched the protester (and later threatened to kill him).

Tensions are running high. Are you really that blind to the possibilities?

Hagar said...

I think both parties are in the process of disintegrating. The names Democrat and Republican will survive, but will not mean the same in the future pattern of the kaleidoscope.

And I assume there is a future. I do not think America is ready for the rise of a "strongman" yet, though that is often what happens when the old social structures collapse.

pm317 said...

@dbp, Bernie is just a thorn on the side. There will be someone else.

Birkel said...

"AReasonableMan"

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. -- Inigo Montoya

pm317 said...

well, let me rephrase it -- there will be someone else if it can be managed smoothly. If not, 'they' would rather have a Trump. This is an unusual election in many ways but one is that neither party bigwigs want their front runners to win.

rehajm said...

BDNYC said...
what would happen to Trump's delegates if, say, something really awful happens at one of his rallies and he can no longer be a candidate?


You mean if he were, like, indicted or something?

Teaching History's answer

dbp said...

pm317 said...
@dbp, Bernie is just a thorn on the side. There will be someone else.

I suspect you are correct, but until the deus ex machina that changes everything, I am going with what is on the table now.

Bay Area Guy said...

Cruz, I thought, made a valid distinction this morning about the difference between a contested convention and a brokered convention. The former is where none of the candidates get a majority (1247), and then the deal-making among delegates begins. It doesn't necessarily mean that the delegate leader (say Trump) eventually gets the nomination or deserves to. This is completely Kosher, and nobody knows how it will play out. I could see Kasich or Cruz winning this.

A brokered convention is different - that's where a deadlock ensues and the party leaders pick someone like Romney to descend from a chariot to get the nomination. That won fly among the voters.

LarsPorsena said...

AReasonableMan said...
BDNYC said...
what would happen to Trump's delegates if, say, something really awful happens at one of his rallies and he can no longer be a candidate?

Unbelievable.



3/13/16, 11:13 AM
-------------------------------

Regretfully predictable.

Michael K said...

"Tensions are running high. Are you really that blind to the possibilities?"

No, they are legion including a race war if the BLM types get enough money to get a real fire burning.

I worry about Trump's safety.I think he has better protection than Wallace had but there are plenty of nuts out there listening to the agitators.

A black guy with Trump tee shirt was killed Saturday night.

Hagar said...

I suspect that Obama's preference is for Trump to become president, but the Democrats take back the Senate and installs another Harry Reid to immobilize Congress.

Michael K said...

"I could see Kasich or Cruz winning this. "

If that really occurred, I would see an outsider getting the decision. Sort of like Harding in 1920.

Who ? I have no idea. It could even be Carson. I have thought all along that he stayed in as a backup to Trump.

mccullough said...

Nate Silver's political forecasting is now going through the problem baseball is having with PECOTA analysis on team predictions. The models are pretty good at analyzing some individual trends but can't predict who will win how many games. Modeling is getting harder.

chickelit said...

Chuck said...For no particular reason, and mostly because I just don't care too much for Nate Silver (in addition to the other Democrats), let's remember that he called Michigan a "greater than 99% chance" of a Clinton win, right before she lost.

I agree with you, Chuck. I think things are too fluid to rely on any poll done using 2012 methodology.

rcocean said...

If Trump shows up with 1000 delegates and doesn't get nominated, you might as well skip the election and give it to Hillary.

David said...

rcocean said...
If Trump shows up with 1000 delegates and doesn't get nominated, you might as well skip the election and give it to Hillary.

If he shows up with 1000 he probably should lose. He needs to do better than that.

Anglelyne said...

Michael K: A black guy with Trump tee shirt was killed Saturday night.

Last I saw that story was fake.

Amanda said...

"A black guy with Trump tee shirt was killed Saturday night."

Snopes

cubanbob said...

Even if Kasich wins Ohio he goes nowhere from there. Same for Rubio in Florida. Odds are Rubio is going to lose Florida and all of these Communist-Sanders agitators are probably pushing Kasich supporters in Ohio to vote for Trump.


" dbp said...
I think Obama realizes that Clinton is a time bomb waiting to blow-up in his face.

If he allows her to be indicted just before the election, Obama will be reviled by the left forever. If he suppresses it and has the FBI directer resign, he has a nice juicy scandal to end his presidency on.

Either way, the Democrats lose the White House. On the other hand, Bernie has a reasonable chance of winning, especially if his opponent ends up being Trump.

3/13/16, 11:11 AM"

Excellent observation except there is no circumstance that Sanders the Communist wins the general election. As for Obama's dilemma, that is the least of his problems as this scandal will ultimately lead to him as well. There is no believable circumstance where a cabinet officer goes rogue for four years and the president isn't aware of it. Why Obama allowed it in the first place makes no sense whatsoever never mind allowing to continue.

Beldar said...

There are some very smart people writing at fivethirtyeight.com, not limited to Nate Silver.

However, they're about 10% as smart as they think they are, and they could not possibly have been more wrong about the Dem primary result in MI.

When they begin multiplying guesses by each other to come up with these predictions, they're much less interesting than when they're discussing underlying data. But their whole focus on endorsements science -- as if there were any such thing -- is particularly ridiculous, and anyone who'd bet money on this stuff deserves to lose every dime they put at risk.

Paul said...

Kasich now says he want's to give all illegals citizenship within the first year of office. So bye bye Kasich. You just gave Ohio to Trump.

traditionalguy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
traditionalguy said...

Bernie now says he is not a communist. When did he get born again?

I am glad to hear he now will not murder all business owners, professional and teachers deemed to be counter revolutionary, which will be every last one of them.

The costs of killing and disposing of 100,000,000 bodies would have been very expensive.

cubanbob said...

traditionalguy said...
Bernie now says he is not a communist. When did he get born again?"

A pious lie in the service of the revolution.

Sammy Finkelman said...

traditionalguy said..

Bernie now says he is not a communist. When did he get born again?

He never was a Communist, but in the 1960s, he associated with fellow travelers.

Bernie even said a couple of bad words about Castro in the last debate, but didn't want to repudiate the good words he said in 1985. He didn't want to pereat them, either.


Rusty said...

Blogger pm317 said...
Cook County will do what Jarrett/Obama will tell them to do. If they want Sanders, they will get Sanders.

Whoever it is it will be resoundingly democrat. The ward healers have had their marching orders for months now. My guess is Hillary. The college centers and Lake county will likely vote for Bernie. The rest of the state will be for Trump.