March 5, 2016

Caucus results trickling in... and Cruz seems to be exceeding expectations.

Follow the results here.

I'm seeing 5% results coming in from Maine and Kansas, with Cruz around 50% in both places and Trump lagging back.

Nothing yet from Kentucky, another caucus state.

Louisiana is the big state today, and it's a primary.

All 4 of these states have a closed procedure. No cross-over funny business, so it's a very important test of where GOP voters really are. It's maybe Ted's big day.

(Correction made: I thought Nebraska was also a GOP state today, but it's only for Democrats.)

ADDED: A big night for Bernie, winning Kansas and Nebraska. Trump got Kentucky, and Cruz didn't hit 50% in Maine, which would have given him all the delegates. Below 50%, the delegates were distributed proportionall.

AND: Trump seems to be winning big in Louisiana — the closed primary. It hasn't been called yet. I'm seeing 46.4% for Trump with 4% of the vote in. The polls had shown Trump at 43%, so he's overperforming.

MORE: With 80% in, Trump is now slightly underperforming in Louisiana.

212 comments:

1 – 200 of 212   Newer›   Newest»
Michael K said...

This will be a good test for Trump although primaries are better indicators than caucuses.

rcocean said...

Ted Cruz is doing great. If you want to stop Trump Rubio and Kasich need to drop out.

David Begley said...

Reports that Sanders doing very well in NE. Full tally at 8 pm.

Amexpat said...

Damn, I find myself rooting for Cruz tonight. Anything to shut Trump up.

Ann Althouse said...

And this is even despite that white thing that came out of his mouth that time. I'm impressed that he's recovered from that horrible setback.

Fabi said...

538 had suggested a 2/2 split in today's Republican match ups. Cruz is looking good! All closed to registered R's. I'm curious to see the Rubiomentum spin if he loses all four (expected) or can't even crack the top-two (not expected) in any state.

Birkel said...

A breath mint is a horrible gaffe?

Really, Althouse?

Amanda said...

Even though Cruz is a religious menace, he is better than Trump. Thank goodness conservatives aren't all lunatics.

Clyde said...

Early voting for the (closed) Florida primary started locally today. I went to the local library this afternoon and got my vote in. No waiting at all, and just the presidential primary on the ballot, so it went quickly. I went with Cruz over native son Rubio; I would like to see Washington reined in, and the GOPe guy isn't the one to do that. As for The Donald, I'd prefer him to Clinton or Sanders, which is hardly a ringing endorsement. I don't think he'd be a good president, but I think both of the Democrats would be far, far worse.

Amanda said...

I wonder if Trump gets beaten badly going forward, if he will run as an Independent. Wouldn't that throw a wrench in the works?

The Cracker Emcee said...

If Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination I doubt very much that he'd do the third party thing. I don't think he's that emotionally invested in it.

Diamondhead said...

If Trump runs third party he'd be certain to lose. Can't imagine him wanting to go through all that trouble for a certain loss. I think he'd be more likely to just campaign informally against whoever the republican nominee is.

clint said...

Cruz keeps exceeding his poll numbers by significant margins. (Example: Iowa -- RCP average was Trump 28.6% to Cruz 23.9%. Actual results: Cruz 27.6% to Trump 24.3%. Predicted margin +4.7. Actual margin: -3.3. A full 8 points off. In an aggregate of polls claiming 3 point margins of error.)

This suggests he has strong support among those who hang up on phone pollsters -- aka the silent majority.

Amanda said...

I could see him running third Party it to stick it to the Republican Party. He is a vengeful person.

Sayyid said...

Maine has a 50% winner-take-all ceiling, which Cruz has a shot at hitting, though results remain preliminary at this point. Both Kansas and Maine have 10% "you get nothing" floors, and both Kasich and Rubio are holding their breaths hoping to stay above/get above the line. Alas, Kansas does not have a 50% ceiling, because it looks like Cruz may well hit that mark.

Maine going Cruz and not Trump, if the numbers hold as they are, will be devastating to Trump. Demographically, it should be Trump land.

Amanda said...

I'm pretty sure Trump he isn't a happy camper tonight. As a matter of fact he's had a very bad week.

Dude1394 said...

The closed caucus seems to be tailor made for Cruz.. It makes sense that it would. However that does say that even in Kansas 24% OF TRUE REPUBLICANS go for trump. And turnout is way up.

So Trump is bringing in more voters in all categories. It bodes well for the general election if they can get rid of the #nevertrump types.

It does say the republican party has been completely repudiated across the board. Trump/Cruz in Kansas for example are 75% against the GOP apparatchiks.

Anglelyne said...

Trump is getting shlonged in Kansas.

Fabi said...

Over 80% for Cruz / Trump in Maine -- the anti-GOPe voters are speaking loud and clear!

Can I order an emotional support pig for the National Review through the Althouse Amazon Portal?

David said...

What's Wrong with Kansas?

Saint Croix said...

Wow!

Ted Cruz is going to go from the most hated man in America (the man who shut down the government!), to the hero of the republic. Ted Cruz, the savior of the republican party!

Man, if Donnie was Bill Clinton's plan, it totally backfired.

Saint Croix said...

What's the matter with Kansas?

Nothing, bitches!

Birkel said...

Dude1394:

Nice try at making this about Trump.
Cruz looks to win more than half the states today.

Birkel said...

Cruz looks to be over 50%.
That would be a first on the Republican side this cycle.

Birkel said...

Kasich defeated Undecided at CPAC.

Meade strikes again.

Birkel said...

Kasich 8%
Undecided 7%

Paul said...

They do not want Trump. And in voter ID states LESS Democrats are voting (guess the dead could not find their ID.)

Open primaries favor Trump due to cross over Democrats. Non-voter ID states favor Trump (and any Democrat.)

Make each person show ID to vote and have to register with a particular party and you see just how the country really thinks.

Michael K said...

"This suggests he has strong support among those who hang up on phone pollsters"

And among those who rely on party jobs and affiliation. No secret ballot.

The primaries will be a better test.

Amanda said...

Huge turnout for Democrats! Well that is good news...for Democrats.

Michael K said...

"Open primaries favor Trump due to cross over Democrats."

Oh yes, but are you sure they will vote for Hillary in the general ?

I agree we don't know but I would not close out the possibility that these are Reagan Democrats who are not extinct.

Diamondhead said...

Hoping Slate gets to run the "If you think Donald Trump is dangerous, meet Ted Cruz" article they have in storage.

robother said...

"And this is even despite that white thing that came out of his mouth that time."

Spring Training: Kansans appreciate a man who can get away with a good spitball.

The Cracker Emcee said...

Kasich will stay in until Ohio. If he wins that he has a good shot at a VP slot. If not, but-bye.

Hagar said...

Whichever way this election goes (assuming we do get to hold an election this fall), we may be looking at the final gasps of the political world that FDR built.

cubanbob said...

Let's wait for the actual results before cheering or jeering.

Anglelyne said...

Michael K: And among those who rely on party jobs and affiliation. No secret ballot.

The primaries will be a better test.



It isn't true that all caucuses use public voting. Apparently (based on quick google), the Kansas Republican caucuses are secret ballot, while the Dems are public. (Iowa is the same.)

Birkel said...

FDR was dead, Hagar.
Stalin built 45 years of it.

And the NYT supported Uncle Joe the whole way.

Saint Croix said...

I wonder if NBC and ABC and CBS and CNN and Fox will tell the world, over and over, that Democrats have been voting for Trump.

Paco Wové said...

"Hoping Slate gets to run the "If you think Donald Trump is dangerous, meet Ted Cruz" article they have in storage."

It's not Slate, but ask and ye shall receive.

pm317 said...

What the hell is the matter with Kansas?! If someone else said it already up thread, my apologies.

Meade said...

Available now through the convenient Althouse Amazon portal.

rhhardin said...

I haven't heard Cruz's amnesty plan yet.

Saint Croix said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Meade said...

"I haven't heard Cruz's amnesty plan yet."

I think his step 1 is: build a wall
step 2: make Donald Trump pay for it
step 3: Profit!

Birkel said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Birkel said...

pm317:

Did Kansas support that criminal grifter, Hillary Clinton, and nobody told me?

Birkel said...

rhhardin:

I hear Cruz intends to let women continue voting.

Saint Croix said...

Althouse was talking about The New Yorker in another thread. A couple of years ago they ran an article about Ted Cruz. Very good stuff. Fair and balanced, as Fox News would say.

And now I know why so many Senators do not like him!

Fen said...

I'm curious how the Left and GOP Establishment will demonize Cruz, now that they've used up the Hitler card on Trump. Maybe he's Batista? Or the anti-christ?

Birkel said...

Fen:

If there is an anti-Christ there would have to be a Christ. So that tactic is foreclosed to the Left.

Meade said...

Don't be silly. The Hitler card will never be "used up".

Meade said...

By the way, who is Batista? Did he play for the Mets?

Birkel said...

The Left will probably argue Cruz is an elitist Formula-1 fan instead of a NASCAR fan.

He is racing-ist.

Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) said...

Kansas is called a "caucus", but it's really a primary. We show up at the polling station, check in -- with verified ID -- and go vote. In our county lines were up to 4 hours long, which is a really good sign that the result will be quite accurate.

Last I checked it was 2-to-1 for Cruz over Trump. A friend in Maine reports 49-35 for Cruz.

Fabi said...

Tonight won't be a complete loss of Marcomentum. He's currently defending his 4th place finish in Maine pretty well against scrappy underdog "All Others".

Qwinn said...

Last night in two threads I predicted that, due to these being closed to Republicans only, Cruz would far exceed expectations. I said that it is Democrats voting for Trump, period, full stop.

As Amanda mentioned, Democrat turnout is high in Kansas, as opposed to everywhere with open votes, BECAUSE they can't switch over.

And Democrats should be lambasted for cheating. Yeah, I know, it's not illegal. But it's f'ing wrong, and everyone knows it.

Considering the polls in Kansas predicted Trump +7, and the reality is Cruz +25, I consider myself highly vindicated so far, and I believe there are more surprises to come.

buwaya puti said...

Batista was a black (mulatto) soldier who was supported mainly by the (black led) Cuban army and mainly black (and Moscow-faction Communist) labor unions.
See Hugh Thomas, "Cuba, or the Pursuit of Freedom"
Most comprehensive and fair work I have read, but quite dated now.

Michael K said...

" the Kansas Republican caucuses are secret ballot,"

OK. That is helpful but I still wonder about peer pressure and how secret it is.

The primaries may have the same result, as a consequence of the hysterical stop Trump effort, or they might not.

I fear we are getting very close to the point where "stop Trump" will translate as "stop Republican."

Michael K said...

"Democrat turnout is high in Kansas, as opposed to everywhere with open votes, BECAUSE they can't switch over."

That may also be significant.

Interesting year, as I keep saying.

Saint Croix said...

Donnie chocked in Kansas.

As he bailed from CPAC in fear, he issued a press release, talking about how he was going to campaign in "Witchita." You know, the demon city. So I imagine he might have lost some votes there.

And then he spelled the entire state "Kanasas."

I don't think that went over very well.

Fabi said...

Did you ever reconcile the 95% increase in voting from 2012 in the Texas Republican primary, Qwinn? Are you suggesting that was all due to Democrats?

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Ace of Spades called Maine for Cruz.

AReasonableMan said...

We may have seen peak Trump. Still a bit early to tell but the Romney hit looks like it was more effective than initially thought. A lot of people voted for Romney and were emotionally invested in his success, they are going to listen.

Qwinn said...

"Did you ever reconcile the 95% increase in voting from 2012 in the Texas Republican primary, Qwinn? Are you suggesting that was all due to Democrats?"

Texas primary was open. So, mostly, yes.

Birkel said...

"AReasonableMan" thinks it was a "hit" instead of conservatives voting in closed primaries. Precious.

Oso Negro said...

Voting in the Texas primary was driven by the fact that for the first time in forever our primary vote mattered. Usually it is all over by the time we go to the polls.

Fabi said...

@Qwinn: You said that Democrats were voting for Trump in open primaries. Then you said the 95% increase in the Texas R primary turnout was mostly due to D's. How did Cruz win Texas by half a million votes? If your theory is correct, then it would have been Trump in a landslide as there would have been 1.4 million new Trump (Democrat) crossover votes, but Trump 'only' received about 800,000 votes in total.

Bob Boyd said...

Ann Althouse said...
"And this is even despite that white thing that came out of his mouth..."

The Lair of the White Worm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJEq6_foO-o

Hagar said...

So how are Hillary! and Bernie doing?

I still can't believe that Obama will allow Hillary! to succeed him, nor have Bernie Sanders do a 4 year sit-in in the Oval Office.
But it is getting late for him to substitute an Obama candidate.

Bob Boyd said...

"So how are Hillary! and Bernie doing?"

Bernie is way ahead of Hillary in Nebraska, but it's early and professional voters sleep late.

Birkel said...

States that are most directly affected by illegal immigration are voting for Trump (except Texas).

Take note, Republicans who expect support from Southerners.

Qwinn said...

"Qwinn: You said that Democrats were voting for Trump in open primaries. Then you said the 95% increase in the Texas R primary turnout was mostly due to D's. How did Cruz win Texas by half a million votes? If your theory is correct, then it would have been Trump in a landslide as there would have been 1.4 million new Trump (Democrat) crossover votes, but Trump 'only' received about 800,000 votes in total."

"Mostly" 95% can be anything more than 48%, which would account for most of the votes for Trump.

I'm sure a big portion of the increased turnout also came from getting to vote for a native son. But I doubt that solely increased it by *that* much. Clearly a large portion of that increase is due to Democrats crossing over.

Since you seem to have access to the numbers, how much did turnout drop in the Democrat primaries there? Because I'm betting it dropped bunches.

HT said...

"And Democrats should be lambasted for cheating. Yeah, I know, it's not illegal. But it's f'ing wrong, and everyone knows it."

You say it's cheating, but have you considered that it is a legitimate expression of who they want? Are they voting twice? Might your complaint reside with the fact that Trump is running as a Republican and not a Democrat?

I understand the complaint about crossover voting and open primaries, but my observation is that a lot of Democrats are voting for Trump because they really want him to be president. I never thought he was a Republican. He's not that Democratic either, but he's really not an R.

Birches said...

Amusing how many Trumpists are saying a Cruz win sticks it to the establishment like it was their plan all along. Right. Right.

Trooper York said...

Hey Larry you miserable cunt. Why don't you stop coming to Lems to use sock puppets to dox people you slime ball.

Shouldn't you be practicing your game to trade up to a new host body. This gig seems to have petered out for you. You don't want to live on what you can steal from a senior citizens fixed income. You can trade up. Go for it.

dreams said...

"Amusing how many Trumpists are saying a Cruz win sticks it to the establishment like it was their plan all along. Right. Right."

I think people who like Trump also like Cruz more than Rubio.

Fabi said...

@Qwinn: The data are available around the web. There was a significant increase in Dem Texas primary voting** between 2012 and 2016. My point is that comparing primary data is extremely difficult due to myriad variables: scheduling, scandals, drop-outs, enthusiasm. As much as I'd like to declare Cruz Control, nothing today indicates that. Good news? Yes! If he ends up taking Louisiana and Kentucky then I'd be glad to embrace it as a game changer. We'll see.

** Obama ran virtually unopposed in 2012

Birkel said...

POSTING AGAIN:

States that are most directly affected by illegal immigration are voting for Trump (except Texas).

Take note, Republicans who expect support from Southerners.

Fabi said...

The Trump / Cruz voters' Venn Diagram intersects bigly and that intersection is anti-DC and anti-establishment.

wildswan said...

This IS an election. We may find out what we mean by convention time but evidently we are the change we have not been waiting for - whoever we are. But maybe in our dreams ... we thought ... or we sighed out a wish ... or a curse under unheeding stars ... you may say that I'm a dreamer ... but I'm not the only one. Maybe.

Marc Puckett said...

I see that people seem to be worried that Senator Cruz is a 'religious menace' & so on and so forth. Since I vaguely remember every GOP candidate since Mr Reagan, with the exception perhaps of Senator McCain, being described by partisans of the Left as tools of the onward marching Christian theocracy I may be forgiven for doubting that Mr Cruz is much of a menace.

HT said...

I saw your comment the first time, Birkel. Georgia is more affected by illegal immigration than Alabama. I am not sure it is an overwhelming problem in Alabama. What a lot of Southern states have in common is a lot of people living beneath the poverty line.

eric said...

Just a reminder.

If Rubio got out of the race, Trump wouldn't be doing so well.

It's time for Rubio to go and let Cruz face Trump alone.

Amexpat said...

Cruz beats Trump 2 to 1 in Kansas. New poll (at RealClear Politics) has Kasich leading Trump by 33% to 31% in Michigan. Just saying.

Birkel said...

Statistics are hard.
Geez, Althouse, that last update is embarrassing.

Birkel said...

HT:

Poorer workers would naturally be more affected by an increase in the supply of unskilled labor.

Since you know nothing of the South, outside Georgia, I suggest you educate yourself. Every small town in the South has a supermercado these days.

HT said...

You like to make sweeping categorical statements, I realize. I have never lived in Georgia. Born and raised in bama, live there half the time now. Yes, I realize what you're saying by the first sentence, I get that. I was talking more about numbers. But just forget it.

Hagar said...

Stalin built the Soviet regime and financed and armed Mao's in China, but had little influence in the U.S. The NYT is "gentry socialist," not labor, and definiely not communist. Communists kill and The NYT is much too squeamish for that.

FDR built a coalition of "the Solid South" and the northern big-city Blacks, "Big Labor" (blue collar) and liberal Ivy League intellectuals, which was quite a remarkable feat - not least that it has lasted so long. Though Lyndon Johnson wrecked the "Solid South" and "Big Labor" has metamorphosed into "Big Bureaucracy" with hardly any "Labor" in it, the "liberals" have been pushed aside by the "progressives," the "Black Vote" is still faithful - in the voting booth at least - so if changed almost beyond recognition and rather the worse for wear, the machine still soldiers on.
But for how much longer?

Birkel said...

I took your statement at face value. So if you meant other than what you typed and I was wrong to assume you meant it, I apologize.

Alabama has loads of illegals. SC, NC, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas too. Florida, which favors Trump, has loads of illegals.

For that matter, Ohio and Michigan have significant illegal populations.

The Cruz commercial with lawyers and accountants storming the border was exactly right, if too late to counter Trump's rise.

Birkel said...

I was making fun, Hagar.

Bay Area Guy said...

The plot thickens.

So, does Cruz have a better shot than Trump in the General? Bob Dole thinks not.(but Who cares what Bob Dole thinks?)

RCP has Cruz beating Hillary by 1.5; Trump losing to her by 3.5.

Not definitive, of course, but can't be dismissed.

Cruz is a dogmatic Consevative, so Conservatives should be damn happy. But does Cruz have that amorphous "it" factor that millions of mushy-middle American voters want? Don't know yet.

Ann Althouse said...

I typoed "interpreted" for "proportional" for some reason. I can't imagine why. Correct now.

Birkel said...

But to answer your question: Until other people's money runs out, as always.

Bay Area Guy said...

We need much more love directed towards Bernie! who had a great night against the felonious Harpy.

ellamentary said...

Oh, Ann, maybe you should leave the "he's overperforming" calls to the Chuck Todds of the world. The early returns in Louisiana skew in a particular way and are not representative of the state as a whole. Let's not get carried away with 4% reporting, unless you have a thorough understanding of which 4% that is. For example, in Kentucky, while Trump will likely win, things are going to shift percentage-wise quite a bit once Louisville and Lexington come in.

Oh, and are you going to post about Trump's minions taking the pledge as instructed by their dear leader today in Orlando? The optics on that are very disturbing. Favorite Reddit comment so far--- "Seig Hair".

pm317 said...

Haha.. I interpreted "interpreted" as some legalistic way of saying divide up the delegates..

walter said...

Marc Puckett said... may be forgiven for doubting that Mr Cruz is much of a menace.
--
Yeah..kinda weird some criticize him for placing his place before party.
As if reversing them would be better?

Fabi said...

So that's why you-know-who isn't here tonight -- she's reapplying Bernie stickers to her Subaru. Re-feel the Bern! The AfterBerner? Who knows.

HT said...

Ella - Louisiana's been called, it seems.

walter said...

(placing his faith before party)

Birkel said...

Cruz is decreasing Trump's lead in Kentucky with a significant percentage still to report. May end very close.

Birkel said...

HT:

She was talking about overperforming, not winning.

pm317 said...

"Trump's minions taking the pledge as instructed by their dear leader today in Orlando?"

I was listening to it on the radio. At first I thought, oh it is a big mistake.. Then he started saying, even in a hurricane you promise to go vote.. then everybody laughed and quickly you could see it was tongue in cheek and he made it fun. They were having fun. If I could say that from listening to the radio, people should quit making everything a problem.

ellamentary said...

pm317, yes, I know it was all a big spontaneous goof by The Donald. What I pointed out is the _optics_, the visual imagery. It LOOKED very unsettling. You were going by the words alone, since you heard it on the radio, so could focus on the tone and the fact that it was tongue-in-cheek. What I meant was, however it was intended, it looked unsettling.

And given that it was at the same rally where he double-reversed himself yet again on torture, well, it gives me pause. Now he says, yeah, we'll follow the law (yesterday's position, to counteract the position in the debate the day before that caused such consternation), BUT we'll change the laws so we can go further than waterboarding. Yikes.

walter said...

"yeah, we'll follow the law (yesterday's position, to counteract the position in the debate the day before that caused such consternation), BUT we'll change the laws so we can go further"

Pleases all, he figures.

walter said...

More FLEXIBILITY.

Simon said...

I've said it before and I'll say it again: There are only two ways that we stop Trump, and everyone except Cruz dropping out is the only legal one.

pm317 said...

I don't think it was a goof. He was having fun with the crowd. About torture, he was talking about the barbarians in the ME who are chopping off heads. He said updating laws in that context. I think he has a point. I agree with that that the strategy to stop the barbarians should be different, I don't know how but they certainly don't deserve any civilized consideration.

Amanda said...

And just how does the Trump think he will change international laws against torture? I guess he wants to turn the US into a rogue state.

pm317 said...

Cruz is not an option.

pm317 said...

Maybe he should adopt Obama's solution just drone them and kill them. No torture, nothing. just kill them in one fell swoop.

AReasonableMan said...

Rubio's surprisingly poor showing saves this a bit for Trump. In a two man race with something of a head start he could still win. He can't take too many more hits like the Romney one however. If the rest of the party lines up behind Cruz it is probably over for him. And that seems increasingly likely now that Lindsay Graham is making nice with Cruz. It is very difficult to remove entrenched interests.

Amanda said...

I'm sure Hillary will continue, if not escalate the drone strikes.

Saint Croix said...

Donnie is cracking up big time. Still talking about his hands. Marco is renting space inside the man's skull. And now, loyalty oaths! "I will pledge to vote for Donald J. Trump." Wow. Not a loyalty oath to the Constitution, or the Republican party. A loyalty oath to him personally!

walter said...

pm317 said...
Maybe he should adopt Obama's solution just drone them and kill them. No torture, nothing. just kill them in one fell swoop.
--
Maybe he will..and more..he's "flexible"

walter said...

He changes his tune day by day...laying the groundwork for years of that if in office.

buwaya puti said...

We are all rogue states now. China has been blatantly stepping on international treaties in the South China Sea, grabbing it all as its own territorial waters. Law of the Sea treaty? Freedeom of Navigation? We speak here of fundamental "international law" going back to the 18th century. Nobody is doing anything about it. Russia is grabbing land at will. US and the Euros went back on their treaties with Libya. At this rate the only international law left will be the lex talionis.
A few waterboarded terrorists is a footnote, and soon enough won't even be a statistic.
Vae Victis.

Fabi said...

@ARM: I don't disagree with your analysis, but the party rallying around Cruz would be a shocker. I think they'd be willing to do anything at all to get to Cleveland with no clear delegate winner. The referenced Michigan poll showing Kasich leading (an admitted outlier) must bring the GOPe great joy.

pm317 said...

@walter, my comment was about torture and laws and such. How is Obama doing in those aspects, right?

Amanda said...


"And if the establishment stops Trump instead? The billionaire said a nominee other than him is the “last thing” his supporters would accept.
“There would almost be a revolution,” he said. “They’re talking about serious, serious, serious problems.”"

From Saint Croix's linked article. Just what does he mean by "serious, serious, serious problems"? Is he threatening the GOP with an Independant run? Or violence? He is losing it big time. And people still support this lunatic?

Saint Croix said...

If Rubio got out of the race, Trump wouldn't be doing so well.

Did you read that article? Trump is desperate to get Rubio out of the race. It's Rubio that scares him.

HT said...

"Did you read that article? Trump is desperate to get Rubio out of the race. It's Rubio that scares him." I know people are saying this, but I'm not sure why. I don't see Rubio winning many states, but maybe he's taking votes away from Trump, is how Trump sees it.

Aside from immigration, in many ways they are the two more moderate candidates, so I guess that's it. But the candidates align then break apart over different issues in different states.

AReasonableMan said...

Fabi said...
but the party rallying around Cruz would be a shocker.


Depends how you view Cruz's performance in the Senate. If you see it as theater, a sop to the base, rather than a genuine threat to the status quo, then it wold not be so surprising. The distance between Lindsay Graham and Ted Cruz is a lot shorter than the distance between Trump and Graham.

pm317 said...

It's Rubio that scares him.

Sure, he is the establishment's puppet. Trump got rid of the other puppet, Jeb! and now it is Rubio's turn. If Rubio does not win FL, it is over for him.

Saint Croix said...

I know people are saying this, but I'm not sure why. I don't see Rubio winning many states

You're rational and strategic. Donnie is irrational and unhinged.

I hope Cruz continues to do well. But I am pulling for Rubio in Florida. Cruz should spend his money and time in Ohio. Drive Kasich out, you want to pick up some votes.

Let Rubio and Trump go mano-a-mano in Florida, and Cruz focus on all the rest of the states. That's a perfectly acceptable strategy.

Do not drive out the man who drives Donnie up the wall!

pm317 said...

GoP establishment is not as nimble as the Dems were in 2008. GoP should have instituted caucuses everywhere and filled them with their people (like Obama and the Dem establishment did in 2008) and if that still didn't work, they should take delegates from Trump but who will they give it to, (again, like what the DNC did on May 31, 2008)? But Trump is no Hillary and he will fight tooth and nail for what is his.

Beldar said...

Prof. Althouse, you're going to want to update that stuff about Trump overperforming in LA. That's no longer remotely plausible.

Amanda said...

PUMA's still mad, lol.

Birkel said...

Forget it, Beldar. It's Trumptown. (Jack Nicholson voice)

dreams said...

It hasn't been called yet in KY with 76% in Trump leads by about 3.5%.

Birkel said...

And Louisiana is 4.2% with 71% reporting.
It's close.

AReasonableMan said...

From 538:
"in Acadia County, Trump got 47 percent of the early vote, with 26 percent for Cruz and 19 percent for Rubio. In election day returns, however, it’s Trump 44, Cruz 41, Rubio 9."

If this is more generally true it would seem that Rubio's support is collapsing and most of his voters are going to Cruz. The all out attack by Rubio on Trump seems to have had a similar outcome to the attack of Christie on Rubio. It hurts both parties but the attacker loses most. It is only a viable strategy if there is some other reward in play.

Michael K said...

"He can't take too many more hits like the Romney one however. If the rest of the party lines up behind Cruz it is probably over for him."

Romney was a terrible hit. I think Trump went up 10 points afterwards.

He's won Louisiana, which make my point about primaries vs caucuses, and he is probably winning Kentucky.

Still not over.

chickelit said...

Saint Croix wrote: Let Rubio and Trump go mano-a-mano in Florida, and Cruz focus on all the rest of the states. That's a perfectly acceptable strategy.

Cruz should definitely stay focused on FL. He could personally help finish off Rubio. Cruz is not a pawn of the Jebio! donor class.

Michael K said...

"GoP establishment is not as nimble as the Dems were in 2008."

The "super delegates" were an inspiration so the elites could keep the rabble out.

Hillary will cruise to the nomination and then to prison.

dreams said...

KY has been called for Trump by Fox.

Saint Croix said...

Marco Rubio is behind the never trump website. That's why Donnie is asking his followers to pledge a loyalty oath to him. Because people are pledging a disloyalty oath!

You might say Marco is doing something strange and odd. I think what he is doing is right on the money. He is speeding up the great crack-up, causing it to happen before Donnie has any real power. Good!

And frankly what Marco Rubio has done is minor. A joke or two, a website. Makes you wonder what would happen if Donnie ever had a real fight on his hands.

dreams said...

Trump will be speaking soon, has been waiting for KY.

HT said...

He's speaking now and I think he's won Kentucky, sad face. He's fun to watch, even relatively speaking deflated as he now appears. The Establishment needs to keep hitting him if they want him out. Rubio and Cruz gotta continue to hit him, working together, if that is possible.

HT said...

He is very very fun to watch though. I'll miss him, I hope.

Beldar said...

Trump is just incoherent talking about Scalia's seat.

Gerard Grosso said...

Pls notice over the night how the Estab Media - including FOX - have delayed the Trump wins in LA and KY as long as possible...... the Fix is in. Awful.

Birkel said...

Every Trump comment is about the horse race.
Nothing about anything bigger than himself.
Meanwhile, it would appear Cruz won more votes than did Trump today.

The narcissism is unseemly.
And it is decidedly not endearing, encouraging or inspiring.

dreams said...

"Trump is just incoherent talking about Scalia's seat."

That's not true, he pointed out that if the establishment runs a third party candidate then the Dems win and will appoint liberal justices.

Birkel said...

Gerard Grosso:

Nice of you to pop in for the first time ever.
Given how close Louisiana and Kentucky were, what did you expect?

rcocean said...

Trump won LA and Kentucky. Was a close 2nd in Maine. Was 2nd in Kansas. Rubio needs to get out.

Birkel said...

rcocean:

Close in Maine?

HT said...

Small hands again. Watch the votes trickle away.....

HT said...

He needs a lot more sleep a lot more regularly.

I worry.

Balfegor said...

I think we all know what these results mean, obviously -- Kasich and Cruz should drop out immediately so Rubio can consolidate the opposition to Trump. He can't do that while you keep letting voters choose candidates other than him.

On a more serious note, Cruz's performance here makes me think he probably has a real chance at winning Florida. He got something like 200% of his poll numbers in Kansas, no? In Florida, a closed primary (right?), that would put him over Rubio in the polls, and in a good position to surpass Trump.

rcocean said...

Trump just ended Q&A. Rubio needs to drop out. He's done. Its Ted vs. Donald. That's it.

Loved Trump shot at Romney. "If mitt had been as passionate about winning the Presidency in 2012 as he is at destroying the Republican Party in 2016, he would've won"

LOL.

rcocean said...

Trump kept calling Rubio "Little Marco" - LOL.

HT said...

"Trump just ended Q&A. Rubio needs to drop out. He's done. Its Ted vs. Donald. That's it."

Yes, there are only three men in the primary race now. Just three. Right.

Amanda said...

He wants to "expand" the torture laws. The man is a raving lunatic. And who does he think will run as an Independent against him? He made it seem as if he thought the GOP would be behind it. He was willing at one point to run as an ndependent, now that he thinks he's got the Republican nomination, he is miffed that someone else would split the Republlican vote? This guy is certifiable. Anyone But Trump!

dreams said...

"On a more serious note, Cruz's performance here makes me think he probably has a real chance at winning Florida. He got something like 200% of his poll numbers in Kansas, no? In Florida, a closed primary (right?), that would put him over Rubio in the polls, and in a good position to surpass Trump."

No, Florida is Trump's second home, Cruz will hurt Rubio though.

buwaya puti said...

There have been rumors for several days about Romney running as an independent.

David said...

Trump calling for Rubio to get out. He wants Cruz one on one, as it should be. No more of the expectations game. Two go in. One comes out. (Katich can bury the remains on whomever does not come out, but he's a noncombatant.)

Birkel said...

rcocean:

So you are going to leave that ridiculous Maine exaggeration just hanging out there? Even after it is called to your attention?

13% is not close. Just fyi.

David said...

Should Rubio drop out and endorse Cruz in Florida?

That will be the pundit talk for the next week.

eddie willers said...

I laughed when he said something along the lines of, "We expected Ted to do well in Maine....it being so close to Canada".

chickelit said...

@Saint Croix: You were much much better when your hobby horse was abortion, trust me. Now you've become just like The Crack Emcee was about Romney in 2012.

dreams said...

Trump had a good day, we'll see how the elite try to spin today's results.

Qwinn said...

So with all states at 98%+ in, here's the numbers between Trump and Cruz:

Kansas: Cruz +24.9%
Maine: Cruz +13.3%
Kentucky: Trump +4.1%
Louisiana: Trump +3.7%

I'd say Cruz wins the day.

Original Mike said...

"Trump calling for Rubio to get out. He wants Cruz one on one, as it should be."

Rubio staying in benefits Trump greatly. So trump calls for Rubio to get out to egg him into staying. Not that I expect Rubio to exit in any case, but Trump calling for him to get out will illicit the opposite response.

MayBee said...

I think Rubio's attacks hurt Trump and hurt Rubio.

rcocean said...

CNN just posted Bernie vs. Hillary delegate totals.

Bernie -487
Hillary -1150.

Bernie needs to quit.

Birkel said...

Looks close to me, rcocean.

narciso said...

most of those are superdelegates, the heart and soul of the dems are for doc brown.

rcocean said...

"I'd say Cruz wins the day."

It was a great day for Ted. But if you look at the vote totals Ted got 35,000 votes in Kansas. Trump got 124,000 votes in LA.

David said...

Bernie won't quit until the Black Lady sings. Or doesn't. (Black Lady = Atty. General Loretta Lynch)

rcocean said...

I wouldn't put a lot of emphasis on Maine. Ted got 8,000 votes. Donald got 6,000.
They need to get rid of caucus states.

Birkel said...

And Cruz got 114,000 in Louisiana.
Pretty close, rcocean.

And not "close" like your Maine exaggeration.

dreams said...

"I think Rubio's attacks hurt Trump and hurt Rubio."

Rubio hurt himself more than Trump.

David said...

Cruz had a very strong win in Kansas. He doubled the trump results in each of the four districts. Does this say something about the electorate in Kansas. How is that electorate like--or not like--the crucial states coming up? There doesn't seem to be anyone knowledgable analyzing this. Or perhaps it might just be a characteristic of the caucus system. Cruz seems to do better in caucus states, and Trump in ballot states.

I've been looking at county results where available. It's rare to find a single county Rubio has won, let alone a state. He will be under some pressure to drop out. I can't see him doing that before the Florida primary. A lot of people will say he should quit if he loses Florida, but he may well stick around to keep some connection delegates in his pocket. And it would not be he first time that a lower ranked candidate came out of a convention as nominee.

The nomination of Lincoln over Seward in 1860 is a prime example of the winner coming from behind. Lincoln trailed Seward 173.5 to 102 after the first ballot. (234 was the majority of the 466 delegate convention.) But Lincoln's lead supporters made a deal with Simon Cameron of Pennsylvania that sent most of Cameron's second ballot votes to Lincoln. Lincoln still trailed Seward 184.5 to 181 but Seward was at his high water mark. Lincoln increased his vote total to 231.5 after the third ballot, while Seward actually lost a few votes at 180. Seward was finished. The third ballot was "revised" to avoid the tedium of a fourth and Lincoln was the nominee.

David said...

Kansas and Maine may show us that The Donald will not run well in California. Low blue collar percentage. Kansas is two cities on the river and then agriculture. Maine is a small city, and a lot of retirees and touriso-agriculture- seafood-military contracting (Bath). Not a lot of disgruntled blue collar. (Bath does very well keeping military work and the insiders of both parties protect it.) Donald needs to have it locked or very near locked before California.

chickelit said...

David wrote

Cruz had a very strong win in Kansas. He doubled the trump results in each of the four districts. Does this say something about the electorate in Kansas. How is that electorate like--or not like--the crucial states coming up? There doesn't seem to be anyone knowledgable analyzing this. Or perhaps it might just be a characteristic of the caucus system. Cruz seems to do better in caucus states, and Trump in ballot states.

Aren't the caucus states mostly "out in the open" voting? The non-caucus ballots are secret. I think there is still a bit of shame involved in voting Trump. Witness all shaming going on here. Witness all the attacks on Twitter equating support for Trump as support for Adolf Hitler.

chickelit said...

Donald needs to have it locked or very near locked before California.

Rubio would probably do well in California, but can he last that long?

chickelit said...

For people tweeting explicit photo comparisons of Trump=Hitler, can their own version of "Operation Valkyrie" be far behind?

Birkel said...

chickelit:

Democrat caucuses tend to be open.
Republican tend to be secret ballot.

Beldar said...

@ David (3/5/16, 11:17 PM): Bravo! A lovely parallel from history. I thought I knew anything about Lincoln that was important to know, but you've taught me something. Thanks!

For a more recent historical parallel involving Ted Cruz, though, you can also look at the Texas GOP primary in 2012. By the time Texas voted in late May, Romney was already the conceded nominee of the party, so you'd have expected a small turnout. Instead, because of the seven-candidate race for Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat from Texas in the U.S. Senate, there was actually a record-setting turnout.

To the astonishment of all of the pollsters and pundits, the prohibitive favorite, sitting Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst -- a multi-millionaire with universal name recognition who'd been on the ballot in every election since 1994 without a single loss, and who spent millions on TV ads for this race -- failed to get a majority. Instead, Cruz supporters forced a runoff. In that runoff election -- with another record-setting turnout, with more than 1.1M Texans returning to the polls -- Cruz flipped Dewhurst's totals from the primary. Cruz not only won a stunning come-from-behind victory, he won it with a blow-out margin.

Beldar said...

What hurt Rubio is not that he attacked Trump, or that Trump attacked him.

What hurt him is that it's increasingly clear to voters -- whether it is to the media or the punditry or to the Rubio or Kasich campaigns -- that this is a two-candidate race between Cruz and Trump, and it has been since last Tuesday.

This primary can turn on a dime as more and more GOP voters reach that ineluctable conclusion.

Trump, with typical braggadocio, insisted tonight that Cruz can't win in New Jersey or Pennsylvania or New York or California. Well, perhaps not in all of those. But the polling numbers showing that two out of three GOP voters, and more than that in closed-primary states, aren't voting for Trump. The two other features of the contests so far that have been remarkably consistent are that Trump has a hard time getting above one-third, and that turnout is through the roof. The results in KS, the election-day results in LA, the urban results in KY outside coal country, and -- miracle of miracles, MA -- show that as the field narrows, Trump is picking up a disproportionately small share.

Trump has nothing to feel good about tonight.

Mom2Es said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mom2Es said...

Since I vaguely remember every GOP candidate since Mr Reagan, with the exception perhaps of Senator McCain, being described by partisans of the Left as tools of the onward marching Christian theocracy I may be forgiven for doubting that Mr Cruz is much of a menace.

Maybe, except that Cruz's father actually is a card-carrying dominionist (although the most extreme dominionist camps have broken for Trump for some reason that I don't care to analyze at the moment). How much that trickles down to Ted Cruz himself, I don't know. I tend to think based on past performance that Cruz is much less of a statist than, say, Carson or Huckabee. For example, you can thank Cruz's work at the FTC if you buy wine online even though Cruz identifies as a Southern Baptist (Cruz does or did drink, but the SBC traditionally frowns on it).

And of course Trump wants Rubio to drop out. Rubio is the one who has been able to get under his skin. Rubio pointed out his short fingers! The audacity! Sure, it ultimately hurts Rubio and makes him look like a high schooler or maybe even this cycle's version of 2008 Sarah Palin, but by comparison it makes Cruz look like more of a grown-up which is bad for Trump.

mccullough said...

The caucuses are done. Now it's winner take all primary. Trump is going to be the nominee. He's going to win Florida and he's going to win the Big Ten primaries.

Dude1394 said...

Mccullough I think you are correct. The caucuses have been the best cruz could do.

Qwinn said...

Well, in the only numbers that matter, the delegate count, Cruz won 64 to Trump's 49, per Ace of Spades HQ.

That's Cruz winning over 50% more delegates than Trump.

I don't think "Trump had a good night" is valid anymore. Cruz owned him.

And yes, the crossover effect is pretty soundly validated IMHO.

Qwinn said...

HT:

I do concede that I have an even bigger problem with Trump running as a Republican instead of the Democrat he is, yes.

And I suppose if someone is crossing over because they really want Trump, and would also vote for him in the general, then I guess that wouldn't really be 'cheating'.

I suspect there aren't that many of those though. I think most of those crossing over to pull for Trump have every intention of voting for Hillary, and that's just vile behavior.

Here's hoping we'll never find out.

Qwinn said...

Aw crap, math fail. Sorry. Cruz won about about 30% more delegates than Trump, not 50%.

That still qualifies as "owned", though, IMHO.

Saint Croix said...

So Little MIss Piggy is in the mud. And she loves being in the mud. "I'm in the mud!" she screams. "I'm in the mud! I'm in the mud!" And she's throwing mud on Kermit and Fozzie Bear. "Here's some mud! And shit too. Mud and shit on you! Ha ha ha! I'm Miss Piggy and you can't stop me!"

So Little Miss Piggy and Kermit and Fozzie are all covered in mud and shit.

Kermit's like, "I got to stay on the high road."

Fozzie looks at Kermit. "We got to do something."

Kermit says, "I am staying on the high road."

Fozzie says, "You got mud and shit all over your face."

Kermt says, his voice getting real squeaky, "I am not getting into the mud with that pig!"

Fozzie says, "Okay, fine. I'm going in."

And Fozzie Bear climbs into the mud pit.

Little Miss Piggy freaks out. "What are you doing? What are you doing? You're in the mud pit! You can't come in the mud pit! The mud pit belongs to me!" Little Miss Piggy is desperately throwing mud and shit. "Get out of the mud pit! It's my mud pit! What are you doing?!"

Fozzie Bear says, "I'm coming for you, Little MIss Piggy. Bacon."

Now Little Miss Piggy is really freaking out. "What do you mean, Bacon? What does that mean?" And she's running around the mud pit, squealing and squealing. And Fozzie Bear chases Little Miss Piggy around and around.

Meanwhile, back on high ground, Kermit towels off all the mud and the shit. He looks pretty. "Hi, my name is Kermit the Frog. I am on the high road. Vote for me." And everybody loves Kermit and he wins big.

Steven said...

It's interesting. On votes cast Saturday, Cruz beat Trump in Louisiana. Trump only won because he lopsidedly won the early ballots.

So, the question is, did Trump win the early vote ballots because there's something about his supporters that makes them more likely to cast early votes? Or was there a genuine swing over the last week against Trump?

wildswan said...

It's big question whether crossover voters are for Trump or whether it's "vile behavior". If he's bringing in voters who will vote for him in the general election then Trump should be the candidate. Maybe he is seen by Democrats as the alternative to Hillary which the Democratic party suppressed - not a Stalinist and not a corrupt Clinton. And not exactly a Republican They would vote for him but not Cruz.

But even in closed primaries R turnout is way up. This where Cruz wins showing that the conservative Republicans have gained the party. But have we gained the nation?

If we turn out and Clinton is indited (or not indicating complete corruption) and our candidate is Cruz but the Dems cheat industrial strength in cities then could X the Dem win? where Trump would of won if he had been the Republican candidate because he is also a third party Democratic candidate.

sydney said...

I have a bad feeling we are going to end up with President Hillary.

Rusty said...

sydney said...
I have a bad feeling we are going to end up with President Hillary.

Nope.

ellamentary said...

"Trump had a good day, we'll see how the elite try to spin today's results."

Speaking of spin, that's some high grade stuff you are peddling there. Trump did NOT have a good day. Those of us who know at least a little math can see that. After Super Tuesday, AP pointed out that Trump had not earned even 50% of the delegates awarded at that point. To win the nomination outright, he needed to earn slightly more than 51% of all the remaining delegates. He did not get 51% of last night's delegates.

So Trump is not afraid of Marco winning Florida? Then why is he urging him to drop out, but didn't urge Kasich to drop out ahead of Ohio? Because Marco is the one who worries him, and gets under his skin.

Anglelyne said...

Qwinn: And I suppose if someone is crossing over because they really want Trump, and would also vote for him in the general, then I guess that wouldn't really be 'cheating'.

I suspect there aren't that many of those though. I think most of those crossing over to pull for Trump have every intention of voting for Hillary, and that's just vile behavior.


I don't find that plausible - Trump has a great deal of appeal to what we used to call "Reagan Democrats". If Trump doesn't get the nomination they'll probably do what they did the last two times - just stay home on election day. Unless something manages to make Cruz a lot more appealing to these people, and I don't think that's going to happen.

traditionalguy said...

Trump cannot win unless the GOP allows him to run in an election. When they do, he cannot lose. That Caucusing charade is another word for a brokered convention at the state level.

HT said...

Qwinn said:

“I suspect there aren't that many of those though. I think most of those crossing over to pull for Trump have every intention of voting for Hillary, and that's just vile behavior.”

_____
Most of those crossing over. Ok. Let's do better than suspicions. Please feel free to provide links. I personally know of no one who has done this (I'm a member of the Democratic Party).

Ultimately it is the people ourselves who will have to work harder to secure the present and future we envision. On the whole, I believe we are too passive and the entertainment culture is prevailing. The lack of effort and participation weaken us.

Perhaps Ann will later link to Dan Balz's piece in the Post today - not usually a fan of his, but so far it's a good read. Here are a few snippets:

"Katherine Cramer, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, has been conducting extended conversations with people in her state since 2007 as part of her studies of public attitudes and opinions. The expressions of anger and frustration heard at Trump rallies represent the kind of resentment she has heard for years.

"“I think of them as folks in the middle, not devout Republicans, but people who are feeling economically pretty stressed,” Cramer said. “I see the Trump phenomenon coming out of rising income inequality and the leftovers of the Great Recession. They are feeling unheard and kind of disrespected by typical powers that be.”"

"[Vin] Weber did find fault with his party, saying it has tried to destroy the concept of legitimate government. “We should be the party of limited government,” he said. “But we’ve gone beyond that and allowed much of our rhetoric to say that government is just evil and the people working in it are evil.”"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/behind-the-rise-of-trump-long-standing-grievances-among-left-out-voters/2016/03/05/7996bca2-e253-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_republicans-1045pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Mark said...

On votes cast Saturday, Cruz beat Trump in Louisiana. Trump only won because he lopsidedly won the early ballots.

This is why we should NOT have early voting (unless you are truly absentee and then only with a very narrow window) or voting extended over many days. The political landscape was much different ten days ago than it was on Saturday.

This is also why we should not be having primaries six months before the convention and nine months before the election.

I wonder how many of the early voters would have voted differently if they voted on Saturday. I also wonder if places like South Carolina or Virginia were to vote again today if the result would be the same. Actually, I don't wonder that much -- I'm pretty sure the result would be different.


HT said...

"Unless something manages to make Cruz a lot more appealing to these people, and I don't think that's going to happen."

_______________________

The Trump voters are primed for an emotional appeal, and that very much includes the candidate's own heritage, so while a few of the people voting for Trump now would vote for Cruz, I agree that many would not and would simply not vote at all.

Mark - I am no fan of early voting either.

Anglelyne said...

chickelit: Aren't the caucus states mostly "out in the open" voting? The non-caucus ballots are secret. I think there is still a bit of shame involved in voting Trump.

The Kansas Republican caucus was secret ballot. The "shame" explanation (or any other mooted psychological theory) isn't supported by yesterday's results. I'd say Beldar's analysis @12:45 AM is pretty accurate, and also fits in with the open/closed primary predictions.

Republicans - the real ones, not just "not Democrats" and the ones who show up to register on/near election day - don't prefer Trump, and that's what's going to matter in closed primary states. Declining party membership, and what a state's likely general election results would be, don't matter at this point.

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