"... then it poses a big empirical challenge... [T]he assumption that the parties will rally behind their respective nominees may or may not be reliable.... But we may be entering a new era, and through the broader sweep of American history, there’s sometimes been quite a bit of voting across party lines.... It doesn’t necessarily mean that Republicans are bound to lose.... But if I wouldn’t bet on an anti-Trump landslide, I’m also not sure I’d bet against one.... It’s reasonably safe to say that some of the people in the #NeverTrump movement will, in fact, wind up supporting Trump.... But I’d be equally surprised if there were total capitulation to Trump.... If you’re one of these ideological conservatives, it may even be in your best interest for Trump to lose in November. If Trump loses, especially by a wide margin, his brand of politics will probably be discredited.... You’ll have an opportunity to get your party back in 2020.... But if Trump wins in November, you might as well relocate the Republican National Committee’s headquarters to Trump Tower. The realignment of the Republican Party will be underway, and you’ll have been left out of it."
Writes Nate Silver in "Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump."