February 1, 2016

Iowa caucus!

At long last. The time is here....

ADDED, 5:54 the next morning: Thanks for keeping up the comments. I'm up and watching all the speeches. Rubio, Trump, Cruz, Hillary, Bernie... I've watched them all.

266 comments:

1 – 200 of 266   Newer›   Newest»
BDNYC said...

My hope is that enough Iowa Republicans will be too ashamed to publicly confess their support for Trump. I also hope Bernie tops Hillary.

tim in vermont said...

A new survey by Government Executive finds that 14 percent of all federal government workers would leave their posts if Trump wins the presidency, while 11 percent said they would maybe consider it.

I may jump off the fence and go all in for Trump!

roundeye said...

It feels like Hulk Hogan v Andre the Giant at Wrestlemania.

Except there is not a 650 pound Frenchman involved.

Michael Fitzgerald said...

Last two winners of the Iowa caucuses were Huckabee and Santorum. With that kind of record, I'd say Carson has a good chance to walk away with the worthless victory.

Drago said...

BDNYC: "My hope is that enough Iowa Republicans will be too ashamed to publicly confess their support for Trump. I also hope Bernie tops Hillary"

I believe that the republican caucus-goers vote by secret ballot and it is only the dem side that votes by essentially clustering together and then forcing supporters of candidates who fail to meet some minimum threshold to vote for their second choice.

Drago said...

roundeye: "It feels like Hulk Hogan v Andre the Giant at Wrestlemania.

Except there is not a 650 pound Frenchman involved"

By the way, Cary Elwes' book, "As You Wish: Inconceivable Tales from the Making of The Princess Bride" is chock-full of hilarious Andre stories.

BDNYC said...

Damn Drago, you just ruined my night. Trump in a landslide then.

Humperdink said...

Drago said: "I believe that the republican caucus-goers vote by secret ballot and it is only the dem side that votes by essentially clustering together and then forcing supporters of candidates who fail to meet some minimum threshold to vote for their second choice."

That is true Drago.

The minimum threshold is 15%.

Michael K said...

"I may jump off the fence and go all in for Trump!"

Yes, if only those 25% who threaten would take an oath to leave and even refuse their pensions.

Trump would get everyone but the Hillary hags.

Wake me when the caucuses are over.

roundeye said...

Drago:
https://media.giphy.com/media/ss2N9oI7B1U2Y/giphy-facebook_s.jpg

mccullough said...

So the lazy liberals who make up such a big chunk of the permanent government might actually quit? Great.

Alice Aforethought said...

It is like the New York Knicks versus the Chicago Blackhawk in the Super Bowl. Inappropriate and incongruous.

tim in vermont said...

Drago, that was a good book. I liked the story where Samuel Beckett used to drive Andre to school as a boy because Beckett's convertible was the only vehicle in town that could hold Andre, by putting the top down. He said they talked about soccer.

eric said...

It's interesting to me how people build this up as a huge deal, but it never pans out for anyone.

My thoughts are

1) If Bernie wins both Iowa and NH, then it's news, because that's rare.
2) If Trump wins both Iowa and NH, then it's news, because that's rare.

Otherwise, if Cruz or Carson win Iowa? It's not really news, it's what is expected. If Rubio wins in Iowa? That'll probably launch him to win the primary.

roundeye said...

Tim:

Did you hear the Andre the Giant anesthesia stories? Over time these things get exaggerated, but it took something like a handle of vodka or a case of beer for Andre "to feel warm."

eric said...

By the way, here is the currently tally.

With 15% of #IACaucus results in:

Cruz (29.8%)
Trump (27.3%)
Rubio (18.9%)


If nothing else, it's not looking like a blow out for Trump that some thought might happen. Which will make pollsters really happy.

AReasonableMan said...

Looks like Clinton wins. A bit early to call for Cruz but could be a very good night for Clinton. Cruz is her best chance to win.

Mister Brickhouse said...

I was pleasantly surprised - Trump won in my precinct (Davenport 54) by 3 to 1 over Cruz. But the eastern side of the state is much more libertarian than the west.

eric said...

I think you're calling it a bit early for Clinton with less than 50% reporting.

Unless I've missed something?

Jim said...

Turn out is very high, lots of first time voters. Reports are that it might be a later night than 2008. Blizzard due in by midnight.

eric said...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/election/iowa

This site seems messed up. Appears to have accurate counts for the Republicans, but the Democrats only have a few hundred voters so far and yet it says 37% reporting?

Doesn't make sense.

AReasonableMan said...

On the NYT map it seems like Trump is doing better outside of the main cities and those are reporting more slowly so there is some chance he comes back.

eric said...

Cruz now leads Trump by 900 votes. In a state with a total of about 150k votes, that's a pretty big lead.

Bay Area Guy said...

Please God let Bernie win!

sane_voter said...

@eric

The Dem results are delegate representatives resulting from overall caucus votes.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The early returns probably overrepresent smaller caucuses. Last time, Romney did better at the evry biggets ones. The returns may first come from smaller caucuses - especially any place people were anxious to get home because of the approaching snowstorm - also there will be fewer speakers because some candidates won't have arepresentative. Then should come big ones in cities. Then outlying ones where there too many inexperienced people.

Big Mike said...

@tim in vermont, cricket. They talked about cricket.

Humperdink said...

This is one of those days when I wish I lived in Iowa. Re-register and caucus for the Bern. Then change back when the bus flees the state for NH.

eric said...

Does anyone know why the count is different for Democrats? Do they only count the precincts or something?

Under the Republicans, you see the total votes. For example, Cruz now has almost 10,000 votes.

But Hillary has around 200. What are they counting on the Democrat side?

eric said...

Blogger sane_voter said...
@eric

The Dem results are delegate representatives resulting from overall caucus votes.


Ahhhh, thanks! Didn't see this.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The early returns seem to be very consistent with the latest polls, including the upsurge by Rubio.

The most surprising thing is the extreme weakness by Christie, who is getting about 1% instead of around 3%. Santorum and Kasich are also doing worse than expected. Was Kasich in the last main debate?

eric said...

Ted Cruz continues to pull away. 25% in now and he's 1,100 ahead of Trump. Rubio is about 4,000 votes behind.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The Democrats don't actually vote for anybody - they select delegates for the next level who are at least informally committed to some candidate, or maybe an Uncommitted group. That is actually what happens in every caucus in every state that has a caucus.

The Republicans, some cycles after Iowa became important because, starting in 1972, they moved the date of their caucus to before the New Hampshire primary, instituted a straw poll that takes place before the delegate selection.

Matt said...

Deciding which Republican will lose to Hillary. This is fun.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The system in the Democratic Party wipes out all trace of O'Malley.

eric said...

Looks like Cruz now leads by 2000. Hard to see how Trump suddenly overcomes that.

Sammy Finkelman said...

These are actually the very first votes that have been cast for Donald Trump in any election. (although they are not really votes - they are the results of a straw poll)

Original Mike said...

"Shares my values": Trump = 6%

eric said...

Well, votes or straw polls, Cruz now leads by 3,000 with close to 50% reporting.

eric said...

Decision Desk HQ is now calling it for Cruz.

AReasonableMan said...

Looks like a loss for Trump but as a non-politician in one of his weakest states it's not a complete loss. For the first time in his life people have actually voted for him. It's real now.

eric said...

Yeah, I'd say this is a big win for Cruz, but I don't think the media will say it like that. Cruz had to win Iowa, he's the "Evangelical" in the race.

Rubio will probably be the big story, even though he looks to come in 2nd or 3rd.

khesanh0802 said...

The real news to me at this hour is that Hillary has just over 50% of the Dem vote. That's not a resounding endorsement of the next chosen one. Time for Bloomberg to step in.

It seems clear as the polls have indicated that the R's have a three way race. Perhaps NH will change that, but certainly there will not be a Bush Dynasty. I still think that Fiorina should be in the top tier based on talent. She isn't, and this is going to continue to be a really strange year.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Actually, they are showing alittle somehting for Martin O'Malley and even for Other.

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com

Hillary Clinton 52.2%

Bernie Sanders 46.9%

Martin O'Malley 0.9%

Other 0.1%

61.6% Precincts Reporting

9,753 Votes [is that delegates for the next level?]
Share Results

eric said...

Cruz isn't really in the race in New Hampshire. So, this result might help Rubio get some more votes in New Hampshire.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Republicans:

Cruz 28.7%

Donald Trump 25.4%

Marco Rubio 21.9% - unrepresenative sample?

Ben Carson 9.5%

Rand Paul 4.5%

Jeb Bush 2.7%

John Kasich 1.9% - Here Kasich is doing as expected/

Carly Fiorina 1.6%

Mike Huckabee 1.5%

Chris Christie 1.4% - Better than earlier results, but still way less than 3%

Rick Santorum 0.8%

Other 0.1%

Jim Gilmore 0.0%

43.4% Precincts Reporting
80,009 Votes

Humperdink said...

It's still early, but it appears Canadian values trump NY values. Ha.

eric said...

It's possible Rubio will beat Trump also. With 65% reporting, Rubio is barely 3% behind Trump.

Big Mike said...

With 62% of the caucuses reporting, Jeb Bush has a hair over 3000 votes, the Cuban-American he hates so much has 8 times as many votes and Ted Cruz and over 10 times as many votes.

As the Professor has pointed out, maybe it's time for Jeb to quit the race. Naw! He hasn't spent all the money he raised on TV ads that no one watches and plush hotel rooms and private jets. On to New Hampshire!

Sammy Finkelman said...

With 53.1% Precincts Reporting and 93,261 Votes the same rankings for the Republicans. Marco Rubio at 22.2%.

Hillary-Sanders 52.4% to 46.7% with 66.3% Precincts Reporting. Sanders has more support in places where there should be bigger caucuses.

Humperdink said...

Matt said (excitedly): "Deciding which Republican will lose to Hillary. This is fun."

Can she still run while under indictment? Can she tap her campaign funds for legal defense? Can she invoke amendment #5 in a debate?

Big Mike said...

Oh, and Gilmore has 10 votes. Come back home to Virginia, Jim! We remember you fondly here.

eric said...

Blogger Sammy Finkelman said...
With 53.1% Precincts Reporting and 93,261 Votes the same rankings for the Republicans. Marco Rubio at 22.2%.

Hillary-Sanders 52.4% to 46.7% with 66.3% Precincts Reporting. Sanders has more support in places where there should be bigger caucuses.


You're a little behind. 70% are in already.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The New York Times has a story about a caucus where O'Malley managed to get one delegate. Theer were about 140 people voting and 10 delegates selected.

garage mahal said...

Will be fun watching Trump shit all over Iowa after tonight.

eric said...

O'Malley has announced he will suspend his campaign.

It looks like right now the race in Iowa is for 2nd. Will it be Rubio or Trump in 2nd place?

Fox News all but ignoring Cruz here, pumping Rubio as the likely winner now of the Republican Primary.

Drago said...

Matt: "Deciding which Republican will lose to Hillary. This is fun."

Certainly more fun than being one of our Humint assets given away by hillary.

Not to worry. Those assets are probably already long dead by now.

So "fun"!

Humperdink said...

Fox is reporting the other Dem, I forgot his name, is bailing out of the race tonight. O' something or other.

Sammy Finkelman said...

You're a little behind. 70% are in already.

I know, I was looking at http://www.decisiondeskhq.com The website is a little behind.

Right now - I just refresehed it - it's at 69.8% Precincts Reporting. Maybe it is not so behind. The reporting must be centralized and moves ahead in quantum jumps. they may be slower in posting the latest updates.

The results seem to be about the same as before. Ted Cruz: 28.5% Donald Trump: 25.0%Marco Rubio: 22.4%

eric said...

The interesting thing about Cruz winning in Iowa?

He dumped all over Ethanol. Said he would revoke their subsidies. And yet he is walking away with Iowa.

Wow.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The New York Times, in a story dated about 4 minutes ago, says that Martin O’Malley is set to announce at his caucus night party in Iowa that he is suspending his campaign.

Drago said...

garage mahal: "Will be fun watching Trump shit all over Iowa after tonight"

Another "fun" posting!

It will certainly be more fun watching Trump do his thing that watching OWS types actually defecate on police cars. For the People!

Speaking of Sanders (who garage has spoken well of), you have to positively love this from Investors Business Daily:

"Sanders spent most of his life as an angry radical and agitator who never accomplished much of anything. And yet now he thinks he deserves the power to run your life and your finances — “We will raise taxes;” he confirmed Monday, “yes, we will.”

One of his first jobs was registering people for food stamps, and it was all downhill from there.

Sanders took his first bride to live in a maple sugar shack with a dirt floor, and she soon left him. Penniless, he went on unemployment. Then he had a child out of wedlock. Desperate, he tried carpentry but could barely sink a nail. “He was a shi**y carpenter,” a friend told Politico Magazine. “His carpentry was not going to support him, and didn’t.”

Then he tried his hand freelancing for leftist rags, writing about “masturbation and rape” and other crudities for $50 a story. He drove around in a rusted-out, Bondo-covered VW bug with no working windshield wipers. Friends said he was “always poor” and his “electricity was turned off a lot.” They described him as a slob who kept a messy apartment — and this is what his friends had to say about him.

The only thing he was good at was talking … non-stop … about socialism and how the rich were ripping everybody off. “The whole quality of life in America is based on greed,” the bitter layabout said. “I believe in the redistribution of wealth in this nation.”

So he tried politics, starting his own socialist party. Four times he ran for Vermont public office, and four times he lost — badly. He never attracted more than single-digit support — even in the People’s Republic of Vermont. In his 1971 bid for U.S. Senate, the local press said the 30-year-old “Sanders describes himself as a carpenter who has worked with ‘disturbed children.’ ” In other words, a real winner."

It is no mystery why garage can relate to this guy!

Humperdink said...

I wish Jeb! would suspend his operation, but then I think he suspended it about 4 months ago.

Jeb! is just floating down the river with the current, watching/waiting for a place to beach and go home.

garage mahal said...

I again look forward to Drago's spot-on election forecasting as witnessed in 2012. Who can forget that Romney landslide, and all the fun posts describing his "modeling". Good times Drago, I hope you have that machine fine tuned and raring to go. Vroom Vroom!

eric said...

Jake Tapper ‏@jaketapper now10 seconds ago
97% in --

Cruz 28%
Trump 24
Rubio 23
Carson 9

Sammy Finkelman said...

One thing I caught on the CBS Eveining Newss tonight: A soundbyte of Trump saying peple should turn out, even if they are sick in bed, even of the doctor says they shouldn't go out.

A little bit is quoted here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-01/clinton-trump-face-first-real-test-as-iowans-head-to-caucuses

walter said...

Drago,
you left out how he also is the inventor of "Berno". A toilet paper based alternative energy. #smellwhatbernoiscooking

Humperdink said...

eric posted:

Jake Tapper ‏@jaketapper now10 seconds ago
97% in --

Cruz 28%
Trump 24
Rubio 23
Carson 9

The two Cubans over performed.

eric said...

Uh oh!

Jake Tapper ‏@jaketapper now7 seconds ago
81% in

Clinton 50.1
Sanders 49.2

Humperdink said...

Trump's ground game consisted of a Boeing 757 that landed every now and then. As in, no ground game.

Sammy Finkelman said...

81% of the Dem vote in and Bernie Sanders trails Hillary Clinton by 1% - just heard on WABC John Bachelor show.

Sammy Finkelman said...

We may need a recount.

Jim said...

Blogger eric said...
The interesting thing about Cruz winning in Iowa?

He dumped all over Ethanol. Said he would revoke their subsidies. And yet he is walking away with Iowa.

Wow.

I agree, that is the big story here. Wasn't Trump pro subsidies?

Sammy Finkelman said...

Trump did have something of a ground game.

jr565 said...

I knew Trump was over performing in the polls. I expect him to drop even lower in the coming weeks.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Rita Cosby political director of ABC says that Fox is calling Iowa. Cruz wins. It is about 28-24-23 Cruz-Trumo-Rubio.

Paul said...

Now I'm not all a Cruz fan but I'd take him, or Rubio.

Trump? Well over Hillary or Bernie? Yea I'd take Trump but still I think the other two are better picks.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The undecideds predominantly went to Rubio. (which may be a something like a tautology, since he did better than the polls showed.)

It may also be partly a shift from the trailing candidates.

eric said...

It'll be pretty interesting now to see how Trump does in the first ever primary.

Remember, Huckabee and Santorum won the last two Iowa contests. That didn't work out too well for either of them.

Cruz should have won Iowa, and did. Now he needs to start getting wins in less evangelical states.

Original Mike said...

"A soundbyte of Trump saying peple should turn out, even if they are sick in bed, even of the doctor says they shouldn't go out."

Cares about people like me.

Humperdink said...

Sammy Finkelman said: "Trump did have something of a ground game."

I beg to differ. Not according to the pundits.

Secondly, if Trump was comfortably ahead in the polls on the election day and he was. He then gets smoked. What else would you attribute his loss to?

eric said...

Hillary only .5 ahead of Bernie right now.

Question: Will Hillary commit suicide if she loses to Bernie tonight and then again in NH?

Skeptical Voter said...

Well Garage may be able to relate to Sanders. But what about Laslo? Sanders wrote stories about masturbation and rape for pulp magazines for $50 a pop--before he decided to leave honest work and go into politics.

Now a guy who can write stories like that might just be in Laslo's wheelhouse so to speak. But doing it on the cheap for $50 an article? Laslo does not like low priced competition.

eric said...

Blogger Humperdink said...
Sammy Finkelman said: "Trump did have something of a ground game."

I beg to differ. Not according to the pundits.

Secondly, if Trump was comfortably ahead in the polls on the election day and he was. He then gets smoked. What else would you attribute his loss to?


Iowa is a very small game. Even with record turnout, we're talking 150k to 200k maximum.

In this sort of game, getting 10 people out in a van to the caucus is a smart way to spend money. Multiply that over and over again, and you win.

NH is a totally different animal. This is why the same person who wins Iowa usually doesn't also win NH.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Sanders won his election as Mayor of Burlington, Vermont in 1981 by 10 votes in a 4-way race. The secret of his success was this:

He had appeared at all sorts of public meetings, and took up people's complaints. He basically ran on taking all sorts of complaints seriously. People must have disregarded his proclaimed ideology.

He didn't do much socialism either, after he was elected.

He is notable now for his constituent service.

When he uses his own brain, Bernard Sanders is maybe good. When he is loyal to something somebody else thought up, not so good.

pm317 said...

Is Rubio wearing makeup/rouge?

Qwinn said...

I wish Walker had stayed in it. I suspect he'd have won tonight, or at least top 3.

Not that I'm disappointed tonight. I far prefer Cruz to Trump or Rubio. (Full Disclosure: I am of Cuban descent myself).

Humperdink said...

Huckleberry and O'Malley both "suspending" their campaigns.

Politicians can't even quit using straight talk.

BDNYC said...

Rubio is a phenomenal orator.

john said...

I thought you were of Eskimo descent.

AReasonableMan said...

Big winner of the night is eGOP, Rubio now has the standing to force the other establishment candidates out of the race and beat Trump. Cruz will not be a factor in the mid term.

BDNYC said...

I can't wait for Trump to speak.

Drago said...

Sure garage, i predicted a Romney landslide.

Lol

So, in all my years of posting here you are going to go with that nonsense!

Well, you are doing the best you can with the "skills" you have so its hard to hold it against you. In the same way you cant hold it against a child when he says something pretty silly and nonsensical.

Humperdink said...

Via Insty (with O'Malley quitting): The average age of the Dem candidates is now 71.

Wow, two old white-privilege geezers.

Chuck said...

About any supposed Rubio makeup; I don't see it at all, on my tv.

Will Trump speak tonight? Or did he get out of Fort Dodge altogether?

Next time you see Trump speaking on any formal occasion, check his makeup. He isn't really orange, and if you look around his eyes, the skin looks light blue because everything else is so orange/tan.

Oh wait; before I could even hit "publish," there he is. His face is damn near as red as his tie. Look at The Donald's face color in comparison to his kids'. Particularly the boys, sans makeup. The Trump ladies aren't exactly short on makeup, and they look perfectly natural next to The Donald.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Sammy Finkelman said: "Trump did have something of a ground game."

eric said: "I beg to differ. Not according to the pundits."

He did have something of a ground game. Just not as big, and it got started later.

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20160131-can-trump-campaign-get-his-supporters-to-iowa-caucuses.ece

“That’s the big question. Trump is a nontraditional candidate, and many of his supporters don’t have a history of going to caucuses,” said Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa political scientist. “He’s been trying to improve his ground game, but it’s been described as spotty.”

He started contacting people who had attended his rallies.

Eric: Secondly, if Trump was comfortably ahead in the polls on the election day and he was. He then gets smoked. What else would you attribute his loss to?

He wasn't smoked. Just did a few percentage points worse than he polled. The polls were more wrong with Marco Rubio, but, on the other hand, did detect a shift at the end toward Marco Rubio. Nobody could tell how far it would go, or whether or not it would reverse itself.

The polls aren't so good. It is very hard to do polling now. Less than 10% or so of people answer polls, now. It becomes an art to try to get a representative sample.

And they had to figure out how many people, and who, would attend the caucuses.

They still can get good samples by various methods. One idea might be to weigh it according to how people answer other questions with known results.

Drago said...

Humperdink, you forgot to add that both the old white dem geezers are supported by Billionaires.

pellehDin said...

At least Hillary won't lose in NH. As opposed to the open voting in the Dem caucuses in Iowa, NH has the standard secret ballot/absentee ballot mechanism that Democrats love in close elections.

Sammy Finkelman said...

@Humperdink. Bloomberg is 73, and also from New York, although he grew up in Boston.

john said...

Bernie is still closing, now 49.8 to 49.6. This is going to be fun for a little while longer.

Sammy Finkelman said...

@pellehDin said...

What are you talking about? Bernard Sanders has a 20-point or so lead in the polls in New Hampshire. There's no real reason for that to go away in the next week and a day. Vermonet is neighboring state and New Hampshire, Vermont and Iowa have the most liberal Democratic percentages (in polls of people who say they are Democrats I suppose)

Sammy Finkelman said...

Hillary Clinton and Bernard Sanders are separated by just 3/10 of 1%

Sammy Finkelman said...

Mike Huckabee has dropped out tonight.

Sammy Finkelman said...

decisiondeskhq.com is still at 89.9% Precincts Reporting.

walter said...

Titus..what's the verdict on the makeup? Who's hot?

Sammy Finkelman said...

New York Times: The Hillary Clinton campaign bought a nearly full-window ad on the caucus day home page of the Des Moines Register. Visitors to the website were greeted by an ad featuring her, with a quote from the paper’s endorsement of her last week. It also had links to the “find your caucus” part of her campaign’s website. The des Moines Register is Iowa’s largest newspaper.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/694190818240794624/photo/1

You could X it out.

khesanh0802 said...

Can't wait form the Clinton spin on a less than percentage point win and a less than 50% vote. I guess those here who think she is a crook and lousy candidate are not in the minority.

walter said...

Oh well..not the best night for Ethanol's Pander Bear...

mccullough said...

Good night for Trump and Rubio. Iowa favored Ted Cruz more but they both did well there, just like Romney in 2012.





Drago said...

Khesanh, a Clinton getting less than 50% in a Presidential campaign is basically par for the course isn't it?

Drago said...

I am certainly not one to agree with ARM (or necessarily the "conventional wisdom") but it does seem to me that my guy Cruz needed a bigger win out of Iowa than he got and I suspect it will boil down to Trump\Rubio as mr outside\mr inside.

garage mahal said...

Canadian wins Iowa!

I hope this win doesn't go to his head and make him an insufferable dick.

Sam P said...

Nichevo: This is Trump's second Presidential campaign. He ran for the Reform Party nomination in 2000.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Huge shake-up at predictionwise. Trump no longer favored to win Republican nomination. Now it is Rubio. (at 55%)

Trump 31%

Cruz stays at 7%.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PredictWise/status/694365668221816834

David Begley said...

Hillary is bellowing her victory speech.

Sammy Finkelman said...

In 1999/2000 Trump was running for the Reform Party (Perot's party) nomination. It carried with it some federal funding, I believe. He quit early. That contest didn't have anything like primaries, anyway. So these are his first votes for anything. I think.

Sebastian said...

First step toward the obvious winning ticket: Rubio/Cruz. Rubio reaches out to the center, projects positive vision. Cruz is attack dog, solidifies base, provides cover on immigration, reels some Trumpkins back in. First majority-minority ticket in US history counters first woman/first socialist/first whatever. VoilĂ .

Sammy Finkelman said...

An honest person wouldn't declare victory at this stage, and a considerate person wold eait for a concession. But is Hillary actually claiming victory?

Sammy Finkelman said...

Rubio needs cover the other way on immigration.

Original Mike said...

"An honest person wouldn't declare victory at this stage, and a considerate person wold eait for a concession. But is Hillary actually claiming victory?"

They were saying on Fox that the Hillary campaign said they were going to declare victory no matter what.

Who can doubt it?

Drago said...

Garage knows its never too early to go full birther!

Drago said...

Original Mike, this is a key play from the clinton "comeback kid" playbook.

mccullough said...

Jeb Bush is going to run out of money soon and his donations have got to be drying up after his showing tonight and his poll numbers in New Hampshire. He's raised and spent a ton of money to find out Republican leaning voters don't want him as the nominee, something I could have told him for free.

Mom2Es said...

Trump teased running on the Reform ticket in 2000 but ultimately did not. Ditto for the Republican ticket in 2012.

mccullough said...

Ted Cruz speech is way too long

Drago said...

Mccullough, brevity is the soul
...


.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Cruz is still speaking. Bernard Sanders has just satrted speaking - the last major candidate to be heard from.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Sanders says that while the results are not yet known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie.

Drago said...

Am I the only one who can still hear the galactic reverberations from Howard Deans lunatic scream?

Sammy Finkelman said...

It oooks like they'll have about half of the Iowa delegates. Sanders also congratulates Hillary Clinton for waging avery vigorous campaign and says O'Malley should know he contributed a lot to the dialogue and he gained a lot of respect.

People in Iowa have sent amesaage to the political establishment, the economic establishment and by the way the media establishment. Given the enormous crisis (?) it is too late for establishment politics - and complains about corrupt campaign finance system.

Talks about veterans - what hey were protecting was a democracy of one man one vote not billionaires buying elections. Overwhelmed by the fact millons of people have heped volunteer - 3 amd half million individual contributions. The average contribution was $27,

Sammy Finkelman said...

Says he is he only candidate wothout a SuperPac. (Nurses United I guess doesn't count)

Rigged economy?

The Cracker Emcee said...

Amazing numbers for the Bern. Polling aside, to do that well against the Clinton machine is remarkable. The old fella isn't Obama, after all.

eric said...

Blogger Drago said...
Am I the only one who can still hear the galactic reverberations from Howard Deans lunatic scream?


Admit it, you half expected it from the Donald.

But in the end, I preferred Trumps speech to Cruz's speech. The Donald was short and sweet. Cruz sorta went on and on and on.

wildswan said...

Sanders is very slowly creeping up on Hillary. You can see it at RealClear

walter said...

"Admit it, you half expected it from the Donald."

Hmmm..I suspect the donald has mastered suppressing internal screams.

Drago said...

Eric: "Admit it, you half expected it from the Donald."

Nonsense. If Trump wanted a scream in support of his candidacy, he would hire the very best screamer. A fantastic one really. The best. The best of the best. The biggest, most luxurious screamer ever to grace the screaming community and this screamer would issue forth a scream so exquisitely balanced between sweet dulcet horror and maniacal exuberance that former Gov Dean, upon hearing it, would curl up in a fetal ball to await the merciful touch of death himself.

Or Trump would simply yell himself.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Donald Trump may know how to give good concession speeches. Maybe because he never really believed he would get this far - that could be why he always talks about the polls. Could be he's thought this through. (how to concede)

Drago said...

Wildswan, anyone can creep up on Hillary. Not surprising given her alcoholism combined with dementia (assuming hillarys younger amor huma can be believed).

And just because humas family has direct ties to islamist terrorists is no readon to discount her musings on this point.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The Quinnipiac poll in Iowa, released today, had Trump at 31%, Cruz 24%, Rubio 17%.

Axctual results had Trump getting about 6% less and Rubio 6% more, but it probably wasn't a switch from one to the other.

It also had Carson at 8% - he got 9%, Paul 4%, Bush 4%, Huckabee 3%, Kasich 2%, Fiorina 2%, Christie 1% - this they got right - and Santorum 1%.

It also had Clinton 46%, Sanders 49% and O'Malley 3%

wildswan said...

Hillary is 4 votes ahead. Everytime Sanders gets more votes Hillary gets enough to still be 4 votes ahead

walter said...

" If Trump wanted a scream in support of his candidacy, he would hire the very best screamer. "
Kiefer! "Aaarrrggggg!!!"

Sammy Finkelman said...

@Drago That wasn't dementia, and it was also shortly after the concussion. She probably took about six minths to recover.

M Jordan said...

Trump's world changed tonight. He may still win, but he'll do it without the magic carpet ride he's been on. Suddenly the media will be the foe, not the cheap john he's been using it for.

It's sad, really. But the spell is broken and it could be an ugly tailspin like one we haven't witnessed in awhile.

Amanda said...

Looks like Trump can't hitch his wagons to those polls anymore.

cubanbob said...

Wow! The Democrats have a dead heat between a criminal and a communist.
Is it possible the Republicans can find a way to lose in spite of the Democrat's apparent suicide as a national party?

walter said...

M Jordan,
Iowa primary has always been more favorable to evangelical oriented candidates, no?
See how things shake out after NH.

wildswan said...

The Sanders Hillary thing reminds me of the town clerk in Wasau who held back town (Republican) votes till Milwaukee (Democrat) put in votes. And just dribbled it out so Milwaukee didn't know how much to cheat by, some said.
Clinton is three votes ahead which is where she's been for hours.

walter said...

Wasau or Waukesha?

Rhythm and Balls said...

Sanders took his first bride to live in a maple sugar shack with a dirt floor, and she soon left him. Penniless, he went on unemployment. Then he had a child out of wedlock. Desperate, he tried carpentry but could barely sink a nail. “He was a shi**y carpenter,” a friend told Politico Magazine. “His carpentry was not going to support him, and didn’t.”

Then he tried his hand freelancing for leftist rags, writing about “masturbation and rape” and other crudities for $50 a story. He drove around in a rusted-out, Bondo-covered VW bug with no working windshield wipers. Friends said he was “always poor” and his “electricity was turned off a lot.” They described him as a slob who kept a messy apartment — and this is what his friends had to say about him.


Wouldn't it be wonderful for you if anyone cared?

Oh well. I guess no amount of sleaze is sleazy enough for a guy who supports a candidate that intimidates people into voting by leafletting their voting records across the neighborhood. I guess that's what a law education's good for these days.

cubanbob said...

Blogger Amanda said...
Looks like Trump can't hitch his wagons to those polls anymore.

2/1/16, 11:24 PM"

Neither can the grifter and criminal traitor.

Sammy Finkelman said...

@wildswan These aren't votes. They are somebody reporting whom the delegates selected at the precinct caucuses are committed to.

With only two main candidates, there weren't too many delegate slots to "steal" or swindle people out of. A Hillary group was a 100% Hillary group and a Sanders group a Sanders group.

There wouldn't have been any putting of two groups together to get 15% except for O'Malley maybe with Uncommitted. They couldn't make a coalition and split two delegates - the non-Hillary non-Bernie group would get at most one in each place.

Some may have joined the O'Malley group on false pretences in order to be a delegate, but from what candidate the lost delegate came from would depend on some delicate math.

Sam P said...

Can this be right? There are a total of 1344 voters in the Democratic caucuses (after 95% reported) The difference between Clinton and Sanders is currently at 4 votes. Santorum has received more votes than Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley combined.

Rhythm and Balls said...

I'd much rather live next to a "slob" than a person who posts my business up all over town.

But then, that's because, unlike Drago, I actually have a private life.

The "freedom candidate" is educated at Harvard law and thinks publicly shaming you into voting by posting your voting records is a totally cool campaign tactic.

This is the joke that Republican politics has turned into.

Birkel said...

Sammy Finkleman,

I enjoyed how you skipped d to light past Cruz outperforming the poll by nearly 6%, or basically the same as Rubio.

Well played, simpleton fink.

Sammy Finkelman said...

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com is still at 93.9% reporting for the Democrats with a 49.8 to 49.6 lead, but it is at 99.5% Precincts Reporting for the Republicans.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Wildswan, anyone can creep up on Hillary. Not surprising given her alcoholism combined with dementia (assuming hillarys younger amor huma can be believed).

I guess no lie or half-truth is flimsy enough for Drago tonight.

It speaks volumes about his politics to know that he has absolutely nothing positive to say about the candidate he supports, and only pant loads of negative nonsense about everyone else.

Seriously dude. What's it like when the only emotion you know is fear? Do you find people who think your resort to fear - not only as a last defense but as the only tactic - is admirable... or even meaningful?

One thing's for certain. If you're the type of person who's addicted to Xanax, Drago's got a credible political story to tell you.

I don't think America can be as easily scared as he thinks the commenters here can be. But maybe that's because I never saw myself as living in a nation of pussies and chicken littles.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Drago is lost. He thinks he's writing for a British tabloid or something.

The Cracker Emcee said...

"This is the joke that Republican politics has turned into."

Your front-runner is Hillary Clinton.

Birkel said...

"Rhythm and Balls":

Do try to wipe the spittle from that corner of your mouth.

Do you plan to vote for the soon-to-be-indicted Democrat or the Independent Socialist? For sake of accuracy, the second reference is to Bernie Sanders but I understand if you didn't immediately know which socialist I meant.

walter said...

"This is the joke that Republican politics has turned into. "
R&B..
Yeah..kinda scuzzy eh?
This type of approach was used in '08 with Obamites. Except they would come back to homes to reinforce the message. I have a friend who was doing it then and laughed uncomfortably about it.
He was also disappointed that Obama didn't invoke executive actions more frequently...

eddie willers said...

Trump needed to win tonight, then in NH and then run the table. Losing tonight put him behind the 8 ball (to keep the metaphor going).

Rubio was the big, BIG winner tonight. And I say a Marco/Carly ticket is unstoppable. He will get the Hispanics and Carly gives women a valid reason to not have to vote for Hillary.

That ticket carries all but the bluest of blue states.

Rhythm and Balls said...

It is no mystery why garage can relate to this guy!

Probably because he tells the truth.

Which is something that would cause you to melt if you ever tried it.

Birkel said...

"Rhythm and Balls":

As a socialist, do you find it good that your only emotions are greed, jealousy and envy?

Do tell.

eddie willers said...

Oh well...now that R&B has arrived the thread is killed.

See y'all tomorrow.

Birkel said...

Finishing third is the new winning. I would almost bet Rubio has Tiger Blood.

Drago said...

R&B's comes out four square against lefty journalists posting the names and home addresses of individuals with hangun or pistol permits as well prop 8 donors.

Better late than never one supposes.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Do you plan to vote for the soon-to-be-indicted Democrat or the Independent Socialist? For sake of accuracy, the second reference is to Bernie Sanders but I understand if you didn't immediately know which socialist I meant.

Keep changing the subject. A Cruz presidency would be an even greater disaster than the Second Bush presidency.

But don't worry. Everyone who knows him and works with him thinks he's an absolute piece of shit. So I'm pretty confident that the voter won't have any trouble finding out why that is and coming to agreement with them.

Unlike you, I can at least see Hillary's faults. You're too blinded with partisan bullshit to keep your own would-be tyrant in place, though.

But that's ok. You are not some singe-person embodiment of America. Believe it or not, there actually are people with more integrity and self-honesty than you have.

It's good to see the Cruz weasels come out of the woodwork with their Nothing-Positive-to-Say-about-Cruz campaign.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Better late than never one supposes.

Oh, you sure are full of suppositions and other things.

Drago said...

The party of Hillary would now like to lecture others on "honesty".

Birkel said...

"Rhythm and Balls":

"It speaks volumes about his politics to know that he has absolutely nothing positive to say about the candidate he supports, and only pant loads of negative nonsense about everyone else."

Somebody wrote that once.

Sammy Finkelman said...

enjoyed how you skipped ...past Cruz outperforming the poll by nearly 6% or basically the same as Rubio.

No, the polls said he would be at 24% (but 7% below Trump's 31%) wile he actually came out at 28% - well, you are right, that is an increase of about 4%. Somehow I was thinking he was just above Trump, and that the difference was within the usual 2% or 3% or so margin of error of a poll.

I guess I have to admit it - I saw Cruz as lower.

Another poll, by the way, the Emerson poll, gave Trump 27, Cruz 26, Rubio 22, Carson 3, Paul 3, Bush 4, Huckabee 5, Kasich 4, Fiorina 2, Christie 3, Santorum 1. So that one had Rubio right, and Trump and Criz close to right also, but they had Carson all wrong for some reason.

themightypuck said...

The only reason Rubio hasn't taken off is that he gives off a bad vibe. Trump is the one who looks the part and it matters. Something, Something, charisma. Clinton, Bush and Obama had it. I'm not sure Rubio has it.

Drago said...

"Which would cause you to melt.." said the "Supposition Crusher"!

cubanbob said...

Biggest loser tonight is Hillary Clinton. She is tied with a communist.
She had the money, the ground team, the name recognition and the MSM shilling for her. Yet she can't win decisively. Loser.

Rhythm and Balls said...

The party of Hillary would now like to lecture others on "honesty".

I am not a "party." I am a person.

You are confusing your own lack of personal identity and confusion of yourself with a party with someone else.

Learn some boundaries.

Birkel said...

Shorter Simpleton Fink:

I was wrong. You are right.

Write your apologies that way and I might begin to loathe you less.

Drago said...

R&B: "I am not a "party""

Truer words have never been spoken.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Birkel said... 2/1/16, 11:44 PM

Finishing third is the new winning. I would almost bet Rubio has Tiger Blood.

There's a saying: There are three tickets out of Iowa.

But it's not strictly true.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Truer words have never been spoken.

Said the loner who never had a true word to say, ever.

Rhythm and Balls said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rhythm and Balls said...

Notice how you left out the second part of that quip, Drago.

Guess you're not arguing with me being a person. You just resent my pointing out that you're really not much of one, yourself.

Without necessarily disagreeing with it, though. Which says a lot about you. And about the type of candidate you'd support.

Birkel said...

Simpleton Fink:
When you write things everybody knows go for less haughty and less douche.

Next you will tell me all roads lead to Rome or some other shop-worn bromide. Save it.

Drago said...

"Quip"

Oh yes, you are certainly quite the quipster even if you, and you alone, say so.

Rhythm and Balls said...

And you are quite the bullshit artist even if you, and you alone, have nothing that's not bullshit to say.

Birkel said...

"Rhythm and Balls":

"It speaks volumes about his politics to know that he has absolutely nothing positive to say about the candidate he supports, and only pant loads of negative nonsense about everyone else."

Live up to your own standards, "Rhythm and Balls", and tell me the great things about your preferred socialist.

Drago said...

You"ll want to spend a bit more time with that formulation after you've sobered up a bit.

Not that I dont appreciate the effort mind you.

Sammy Finkelman said...

I made a mistake, but it only consisted of overlooking something, where I somehow thought that Cruz's percentage had remained roughly stable while Trump's and Rubio's had changed. No, Cruz's percentage went up too, somewhat, compared to the Quinnipiac poll. So where did the gains come from? I see now that the Quinnipiac poll adds up to only 97%, so 3 percentage points came from "Don't Know" or Undecided.

What I actually wrote wasn't wrong, except for not noting the possibility there might have been some Trump to Cruz switching - or maybe differences in turnout.

Birkel said...

Can "Rhythm and Balls" stop with the "pant loads of negative nonsense" and compliment his preferred socialist?

Rhythm and Balls said...

Live up to your own standards, "Rhythm and Balls", and tell me the great things about your preferred socialist.

I have before and I don't have to. But not tonight. You're too busy pretending to have something to feel good about and something worth celebrating in the win of your very-far-from-"least worst" candidate.

Once you get over your anger at being challenged to say one thing that's positive about the sociopathic liar Cruz, then we'll talk more.

Sammy Finkelman said...

@birkel. You said finishing third is the new winning. I pointed out that that wasn't new at all. (for Iowa caucuses)

Birkel said...

Simpleton Fink:

You are useless. You are not interesting. You are not informative. You are not engaging. And you are not honest.

Do better or quit.

Rhythm and Balls said...

...compliment...

I believe you were asked first.

Looks like Republicans aren't in the mood for being asked to put up or shut up. They're all defensive and like, "No! You!"

And who even knows what sense can be made out of the gibberish that Drago's postings have devolved into.

Like I said, he has no independent personality. It's all wrapped up in party identity. He lacks the capacity to even know how to interact with others.

Birkel said...

Positives about Cruz:

He understands that the federal bureaucracy is the enemy of the people of the United States. He wants to end subsidies and corporate welfare, taking direct aim at the bureaucracies. He plans to unleash the ingenuity and creativity of the American worker from Leviathan's tentacles.

These are great things.

Bay Area Guy said...

I am feelin' the Bern tonight!

Deciding between an angry 74-year old Socialist and a devious 69-year old Feminist must be fun for Dems!

On a serious note, that Cruz won in Iowa, coming out against Ethanol is pretty darn impressive to me.

Bernie now needs to destroy Hillary in NH!

Drago said...

Well, if nothing else one certainly cannot say that R&B's is not quite earnest.

So that's something.

Rhythm and Balls said...

If you want "socialism" (of the sort YOU define) Cruz will certainly give it to you.

I mean, hell. He'll even throw a tantrum and shut down the government so that people get paid to do nothing... just to prove how important he is!

Ted Cruz: Spending your money on a government he makes sure does nothing worth getting paid for.

Birkel said...

You asked a third party, above, "Rhythm and Balls", and not me.

I asked you after that, by quoting you.

I have the advantages of honesty and intelligence. You have the advantages of lies and spittle.

Rhythm and Balls said...

He understands that the federal bureaucracy is the enemy of the people of the United States. He wants to end subsidies and corporate welfare, taking direct aim at the bureaucracies. He plans to unleash the ingenuity and creativity of the American worker from Leviathan's tentacles.

Can you translate this into English?

Rhythm and Balls said...

You asked a third party...

Hey. You party apparatchiks all look alike to me. After a while you faceless, avatar-less right-wing pseudonyms all start to look like identical heads on the same hydra.

Birkel said...

I cannot force you to drink, you small minded ass.

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