December 21, 2012

"Does A Speaker Survive This?"/"Will Boehner’s speakership survive until Plan C?"

Talking Points Memo/Ezra Klein.

Meme watch. Coming in from the left.

ADDED: Here's the presentation of the same material, from the right, at National Review:
The speaker looked defeated, unhappy, and exhausted after hours of wrangling. He didn’t want to fight. There was no name-calling. As a devout Roman Catholic, Boehner wanted to pray. “God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,” he told the crowd, according to attendees.

There were audible gasps of surprise, especially from freshman lawmakers who didn’t see the meltdown coming. Boehner’s friends were shocked, and voiced their disappointment so the speaker’s foes could hear. “My buddies and I said the same thing to each other,” a Boehner ally told me later. “We looked at each other, rolled our eyes, and just groaned. This is a disaster.”

143 comments:

Nonapod said...

Probably not. I suspect Boehner is toast and we'll be going over the cliff soon.

Bob Ellison said...

I have a history of bad predictions of political hystory, but I agree with Nonapod: Boehner is toast. He has been incompetent. We're going over the cliff, because Obama wants us to do that. It won't be that bad.

chrisnavin.com said...

You need a siren, Althouse, like a tsunami warning:

'A meme that could grow to thirty pundits deep is expected to gather strength through this weekend'

'Conservatives and Republicans, especially, can expect at least two weeks of cleanup from the latest round of political posturing, journolisting, and gamesmanship coming out of the chattering class in defense of their preferred ideals and sitting president.'



Shouting Thomas said...

Yet another crisis!

Been one going on daily since the Wisconsin contretemps.

Fortunately, my vacation is coming to an end and I'll have to start focusing on my church organist gigs, my part time programming job and my gigs with the Old Dawgz.

Plus, I ordered my new recording studio and we're gonna start making our first album.

I'm tired of crises. Everybody give it a break. If you need some stimulation, go the Suzy Favor route instead.

chrisnavin.com said...

Maybe you can start naming these memes on either side, like "Draco."

Or 'Ezra XIV',

chrisnavin.com said...

The wonks and pundits could have their own list:

I remember when 'National Review Redsnake 34' meme came out after Christmas, during the fiscal cliff debate but after Benghazi died down a bit.'

or 'Reagan's Brow'

or 'Clinton Needs A New Pair Of Shoes'

Eh, maybe not.

Tim said...

Bob Ellison said...

"I have a history of bad predictions of political hystory, but I agree with Nonapod: Boehner is toast. He has been incompetent. We're going over the cliff, because Obama wants us to do that. It won't be that bad."

@Bob, you don't mean to say we're going over the cliff because Boehner was incompetent from stopping Obama/Reid/Congressional Democrats from doing what they wanted - going over the cliff?

It's surpassingly obvious Obama and the Democrats have been intransigent on this.

Similarly, Boehner may survive this for lack of another viable candidate for Speaker - or maybe not. Too early to tell.

Anyway, it maybe easier for everyone to compromise once we've gone over the fiscal cliff.

Democrats want taxes to go up, so go up they shall.

ricpic said...

It's a disaster that genuinely conservative Republicans repudiated their Speaker's cave on taxes? Whether they can relieve him of his title or not, at least the party now has a pulse.

whoresoftheinternet said...

Yawn. The bitch already caved on taxes. And Obama's already shredded the constitution. Whatever twerp they install as House Speaker won't make a lick of difference.

Enjoy the decline, shitheads!

MadisonMan said...

Boehner lets his bluffs be called too easily.

Where's his spine?

Shouting Thomas said...

Here's the fiscal cliff explicated via animation and a surf rock song.

garage mahal said...

Republicans are a complete train wreck right now. I almost feel sorry for Boehner. Almost.

Michael K said...

" ricpic said...
It's a disaster that genuinely conservative Republicans repudiated their Speaker's cave on taxes? Whether they can relieve him of his title or not, at least the party now has a pulse."

Boehner had weak hand and played it well but this is the perfect killing off the good with the perfect. He maybe willing to turn the Speaker ship over to someone else. I would be at this point. The right seems to think they won the election.

edutcher said...

Purging Conservatives from leadership positions was a bad idea. It's doubtful he can survive what was essentially a No Confidence vote.

Whether the next Speaker is a Conservative is up for grabs, but whoever it is will tread a bit more softly.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

The thing likely would have passed if Pelosi had been able to offer a mere 20 votes and President Obama been willing to sign it. So his caucus wasn't willing to take an empty symbolic vote. So what.

machine said...

"We're going over the cliff, because Obama wants us to do that."

You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!

Emil Blatz said...

Where is Newt Gingrich when you need him? Even though he could not have won the nomination, you really wanted to see him in the debates, particularly #2 & #3. If only there was a pinch hitter rule in the debates. Likewise, the person who serves as Speaker of the House need not, by the rules, be a current seat holder in the House. Newt is available, I hear. I'm certain he would do a much better job of a) formulating a strategic position, and b) communicating it to the public.

machine said...

You can't be serious about the deficit if taxes are off the table...

Soooo "conservatives" are not serious about addressing the deficit.

gerry said...

The right seems to think they won the election.

Apparently they did, in the House.

SteveR said...

Somehow when I look at who's happy and who's not, I think things will work out all right.

"We have to go over the fiscal cliff to see what's there"

"The most transparent fiscal cliff in U.S. history"

"We won"

Nonapod said...

You can't be serious about the deficit if taxes are off the table...

Soooo "conservatives" are not serious about addressing the deficit.


Spending is the real problem. 1.6 trillion in new tax revenue over 10 years is pretty meaningless when the current public debt is 16 trillion and growing. But Obama and the Democrats have made it pretty clear that they're not truly interested in dealing with spending (particularly entitlements which is the real problem) and they currently have the stronger hand so they gets what they wants.

Marshal said...

machine said...
"We're going over the cliff, because Obama wants us to do that."

You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!


I see the leftists are sticking with the same propoganda. Boehner and Republicans have made two offers of compromise and been rejected. Meanwhile Obama is unwilling to compromise on anything and the left is cheering him on.

This isn't the drum circle where leftists sit around and pretend to believe each others' lies.

Carol said...

Buy the dips!

Colonel Angus said...

This is what happens when leadership is chosen by seniority than competence.

Bob Ellison said...

The tax part of the fiscal cliff will hit lower- and middle-income folks much harder than upper-income ones, largely because the Bush tax cuts were themselves very progressive. But lefties are too stupid to notice, and too dishonest to admit.

What will happen? I predict that the GOP will be blamed. We are in bad shape as a community.

FleetUSA said...

Right after the election I started saying Boehner has the toughest job in the world.

Lyle said...

Neo-Democrat Republicans like Boehner need to get a clue. Don't raise taxes and cut spending. We have a fucking ginormous budget deficit. Take the Johnson out of your ass Boehner.

Lyle said...

Rand Paul... I'm holding his hand when we jump. Wheeeeeee!!!

Colonel Angus said...

Soooo "conservatives" are not serious about addressing the deficit.

Neither are liberals. Raising taxes on the so called 1% will raise the equivalent of a rounding error on the deficit on an annual basis.

Fact is taxes need to be raised across the board along with massive spending cuts to get the budget to have some semblance of sanity. Liberals are either stupid or delusional, or likely both to think we can run a trillion dollar deficit that can be paid for without raising taxes on the 99%.

Strother Martin had a name for them:.Morons.

Colonel Angus said...

When the annual revenue raised by raising taxes on the so called rich won't even cover the annual debt maintenance, that alone should tell you Obama is simply an unserious idiot.


Coketown said...

Republicans should be more like the Left, in which all thoughts, ideas, statements, and actions are coordinated in a consistent, top-down fashion, and everyone is expected to get in line. No dissent, no differing opinions, just perfect loyalty to the Party, resulting in the entire ideological apparatus uttering the exact same things, from the President to pundits to Blogger comment trolls.

The precision and speed of this coordination is fascinating. A sort of quantum entanglement, to be sure.

Boehner seems predisposed to screwing things up. I notice he and Amelia Bedelia are never in the same room together. COINCIDENCE?!

Revenant said...

You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!

I can see how you would be confused, since the word is frequently misused by the news media these days -- but "compromise" does not, technically, mean "give the Democrats everything they want".

Titus said...

I am ready for the Fiscal Cliff.

I am actually getting kind of hard and excited about The Fiscal Cliff.

Now let's begin.

tits.

Bruce Hayden said...

When the annual revenue raised by raising taxes on the so called rich won't even cover the annual debt maintenance, that alone should tell you Obama is simply an unserious idiot.

Not sure if that is what it means. He gets what he wants here, which was to increase taxes and reduce the stature of the Republicans in the House.

But, you have to figure that most Dem politicians are either unserious, uneducated, or dishonest, because the deficit is likely to grow, instead of shrink, if they had gotten their targeted tax increases. Why? Because actions have consequences, and raising taxes on the most effective wealth creators results in less wealth creation, which translates into fewer jobs and fewer taxes raised.

Some have claimed that this is exactly what Obama wants, lowering our standard of living to a 2nd world level to level the world playing field, in following the dream of his father to fight imperialism, etc. I don't buy it. My guess is rather that he isn't schooled in this area, ad is too intellectually lazy to do the research and understand how counter productive so many of his policies are. His only real goal was to be reelected, so that he could continue to enjoy the perks of being the most powerful person on the planet. But, if he can win the House for the Dems next election, all the better.

The Speaker got sucked into a fight that he couldn't win. The Dems only goal here was to make Republicans look bad. The President kept moving the goal posts, with no real intent to ever cut spending. If he could get his tax increases on the millionaires, billionaires, and zillionaires, then fine. Just don't tough all the new spending over the last 6 years through the 110th, 111th, and 112th Congresses - some 5% of GDP that he thinks needs to be set in concrete, along with other previously enacted entitlements.

Hagar said...

“‘My other piece of advice, Copperfield,’ said Mr. Micawber, ‘you know. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds nought and six, result misery.”
David Copperfield (1850)

Tim Geithner is reported to have stated that taxes will not go up on the "middle class" because "we will simply not collect it."
I.e. the Treasury will not increase the payroll withholdings as required, and the Democrats will double dare the Republicans to let everybody face owing taxes at the end of the year instead of getting a refund.

I do not think we will fall off a "cliff" at New Years, it will just be a long slow slide into real misery.

AprilApple said...

Two facts:

1) We will return to the Clinton tax hikes.(for all)

2) The economy will tank.



sonicfrog said...

I'm with Titus on this one. This whole thing is nothing but a joke. Both sides were never serious about actually fixing the problem. They just wanted to do enough to hopefully ding the other side.

Should spending be cut. Absolutely! But not these fake fixes that are just minimal cuts in the automatic spending increases. They need to be real, and across the board. And to hell with everybody's sacred cows! Slash and burn babys.

Should we raise the tax levels on everybody? If we are really serious about cutting into the deficit. Can't do it without it. Not only that, but the rich who give money to candidates should get an extra hefty fine, for funding and getting elected the complete idiots we are stuck with in the Federal Government! They deserve to have the shit fined out of them for that alone!!!!

BTW, Titus, if you ever find yourself in or about Auberry California... You are Welcome there! :-)

Chef Mojo said...

Screw it. Let it burn.

Neither party is serious about any of this. The sooner it comes crashing down, the sooner we can begin rebuilding.

mark said...

Why is returning to President Clinton's tax rates a disaster? Shouldn't we all be celebrating?

I mean, the left always sells him and everything he did as awesome. Even the adultery, blow jobs in the office, forcing himself on women. They even loved that.

So the Clinton/Obama tax rates should be more awesomely awesome!

Tim said...

"You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!"

List for us, please, the compromises offered by Obama.

whoresoftheinternet said...

machine said...

You can't be serious about the deficit if taxes are off the table...

Soooo "conservatives" are not serious about addressing the deficit.



---LMAO. Someone doesn't understand basic math. Or the Laffer Curve.

No wonder you're a flaming faggot.

DADvocate said...

Neither party is serious about any of this. The sooner it comes crashing down, the sooner we can begin rebuilding.

Not the core leaders anyway. The U.S. has declined in virtually every way since Obama took office, economically, militarily, healthcare, etc. We've made some progress in energy production despite Obama, not because of. It's as if his goal truly is to weaken the country and establish greater governmental control over the serfs. We all belong to the government, remember?

Hagar said...

The MSM kind of reminds me of the Grand Central Station Locker Creatures.

Steve Koch said...

The serenity prayer by Boehner was strange, completely the wrong approach to motivate your troops to work out a compromise, an extremely passive approach. NR said Boehner did not try to pressure any of his troops to reach a consensus, which I don't understand.

Going home for Xmas 1st, before the senate left, also seems like at least a public relations mistake.

Having said that, plan B seemed like a decent plan. It would have stopped tax hikes on the vast majority of people and would buy time until the dems want to raise the debt ceiling (when the GOP has much more leverage).

Whether Boehner loses his job depends on whether the GOP can come up with a decent alternative.

Steve Koch said...

It looks like the GOP is going to be hard core when the dems ask to raise the debt ceiling.

Colonel Angus said...

List for us, please, the compromises offered by Obama.

In fairness, Obama offered two compromises. His way and the highway.

edutcher said...

garage mahal said...

Republicans are a complete train wreck right now. I almost feel sorry for Boehner. Almost.

No, the party that gave us this mess is the train wreck.

They had to steal the election to win it.

machine said...

You can't be serious about the deficit if taxes are off the table...

Soooo "conservatives" are not serious about addressing the deficit.


machine said...
You can't be serious about the deficit if spending and entitlements are off the table...

Soooo the Demos are not serious about addressing the deficit.

FIFY.

We're going over the cliff, because Obama wants us to do that.

You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!


They compromised on plenty. Even the media's admitted Choom is the stumbling block ansd wants to go over.

(you have to explain everything to these people...)

AprilApple said...

Harry Reid won't take any of it up in the Senate. so what's the point?

machine said...

hahahahahahaha....stolen election...hahahahahahaha...


cheers!

Der Hahn said...

Stupid (Tea) Party.

If anything should have been as plain as the tan on Boehner's face from the last election it's that the GOP needs to quit allowing big money Democrats to have their cake and eat it too by opposing any and all tax increases.

Colonel Angus said...

Whether Boehner loses his job depends on whether the GOP can come up with a decent alternative.

Ive said since the election the GOP should give Obama exactly what he wants. Obama spent the last four years whining how nothing was his fault and the mean GOP stonewalled him. If Speaker Weepy had half a brain he'd agree to Obamas proposal and make him own it. Then remind the electorate every day that you got the compromise you wanted for the President you elected. Now shut up and take your medicine.

But Boehner isn't much brighter than Obama so we couldn't expect much. Instead, the GOP will take the fall anyway rather than hang it on Obama.



Chip S. said...

Can one fucking "reporter" ask Obama or Reid or Boehner or anybody else in Washington just what they intend to do about the debt, instead of reporting constantly on how they're winning or losing the day's fucking news cycle?

The fucking election is over, but the entire DC press corps is still covering it.

David said...

A competent leader has to have competent followers.

The die hard fringe of the Republican party wants it all, right now, just the way they want it. Unfortunately they are just handing a nice Christmas present to Obama.

If your followers are fools, it's hard to be a great leader.

rehajm said...

Simpson-Bowles, the president's bipartisan commission, was the blueprint for compromise between the parties. It called for a reduction in spending to slow the accumulation of debt, and concluded we should lower tax rates and broaden our tax base through the reduction in expenditures. It offered several options, none of which called for raising marginal tax rates.

The president has chosen to ignore the conclusions of his own commission and demand higher marginal tax rates, yet somehow he and his supporters reserve the right to be shocked there's no agreement.

It's going to be a long four years...

furious_a said...

I am actually getting kind of hard and excited about The Fiscal Cliff.

Me, too! FORWARD!

damikesc said...

You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!

They're the only ones compromising.

You can't be serious about the deficit if taxes are off the table...

Given that the issue is spending and not revenue, hardly.

Again, if we taxed "the rich" 100% of their income, it wouldn't be nearly enough.

There isn't enough to tax to cover the spending.

DADvocate said...

If your followers are fools, it's hard to be a great leader.

There are plenty of examples throughout history of "great" leaders being fools and their followers being fools. The Democratic Party being a current example.

Anyone making a Democrat vs Republican, my side's winning/your sides losing, anything you can do/I can do better argument out of this is a fool. (Which is why garage is such a fool.) We'll all be flushed down the same toilet and the elite, ruling class will snicker the entire time.

Steve Koch said...

Pretty sure the dems aren't going to worry about the debt while a dem is prez. Expending the size and power of the fed gov is always the dem goal and deficit spending helps them achieve that goal.

The dems have been printing money like crazy for years now, the only thing stopping inflation is money velocity is so low. If the economy somehow got squared away (haha), significantly speeding up money velocity will probably trigger massive inflation. That would reduce our debt but would also increase the cost of financing the debt and hasten the day when the dollar is no longer the reserve currency. When that happens, we will have lost a huge economic advantage and will be in deep trouble.

Don't worry, be happy.

Hagar said...

Boehner has a conscience and would like to hold the country together, at least sort of.
Obama and his Democrats wants a bare-knuckle fight, which they think they can win, and do to the whole country what the California Democrats have done to California.

Chip Ahoy said...

"You don't suppose it has anything to do with the Speaker not being able to get his caucus to compromise...on anything!?!?!"

This is perfect. And

You can't be serious about the deficit if taxes are off the table...
Soooo "conservatives" are not serious about addressing the deficit.

You keep saying these same thing over and over. You're not budging one single bit. You're quite thickheaded. Thick as can be.

Guess what, the tea party patriot types are the same as you in that regard. The end is reached.
Mind, that I despise both these dithhhh-pick-able parties. I view Washington DC from above with the perspective of Google Earth and regard the whole thing with its organized streets as a face hugger upon the countenance of the United States and like Titus I'm hard imagining it decimated.

That's minus one tenth.

I imagine the whole city scrambling trying to find ways to shrink. NOW SHRINK!
And I don't care what happens. That's how much I don't respect anybody in government.


Balfegor said...

Boehner basically just lost a confidence vote in his own caucus. He has to resign. The problem is, I don't know that there's anyone else who can replace him, who can negotiate credibly on behalf of all Republicans. Last time was easy for Republicans because Obama self-destructed. This time, Republicans just self-destructed.

Seeing Red said...

What a weenie.

Insty links to 2 items, Frenchies are broke, can't pay their pensions and NY is on the brink as well.


It's the spending, stupid.

Bonehead - it's not that hard, keep them in session.

Move some things around, add some things & vote.

Do your damn job.

Seeing Red said...

Medicaid people only pay $3.65 for an office visit around these part, at least up it to $5. They have free phones & phone time.

AprilApple said...

Even if Boehner were to pass a bill, the dem controlled senate would just shit on it.

Seeing Red said...

Pass 2 bills, one with more cuts that would pass

1 that give the dems everything they want with 1 caveat

the federal government, including the pres, congress and their minions all go into obamacare.

mtrobertsattorney said...

Outside of Obama's inner circle, it is a little known fact that the economist that has had the most influence on the president's understanding of economics is Prof. J. Wellington Wimpy.

Prof. Wimpy sums up his economic theory thusly: "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."

Steve Koch said...

Of course the cliff is not irreversible or even necessarily immediate. The increase in taxes could be refunded and the spending cuts probably won't take effect immediately. A compromise can still be worked out in the next few weeks without disastrous consequences.

If the GOP plays this right they can do a good cop, bad cop routine with the dems. Boehner can be the reasonable cop who claims that his hands are tied by his bad cop partner, the "crazy" Tea Party guys.

It will be interesting to see what our banker, China, has to say about all this.

mtrobertsattorney said...

Outside of Obama's inner circle, it is a little known fact that the economist that has had the most influence on the president's understanding of economics is Prof. J. Wellington Wimpy.

Prof. Wimpy sums up his economic theory thusly: "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."

Balfegor said...

Re: AprilApple:

Even if Boehner were to pass a bill, the dem controlled senate would just shit on it.

His caucus's failure to back him destroys his credibility as a negotiator. Republicans now have no voice in this debate. The solution is going to be negotiated between Obama and the Democrats in Congress. Republicans can go along with what the Democrats give them or not, but they no longer have any power to control the terms of the debate. Unless they come up with a replacement Speaker who does have the confidence of the House. But that seems unlikely.

Seeing Red said...

Actually, I'd modify it to Obamacare & lowering federal taxes to the lowest congressman's salary.

They don't have skin in the game.

Sofa King said...

I don't really get what the big deal is. Even if they would have passed it, it would not have passed the Senate or been signed by the President.

The Senate has been abdicating its budgeting responsibilities for years now. Maybe the press could call them on it, just a little?

Seeing Red said...

He shouldn't have replaced those 2 more conservative guys on the committee. What was he thinking? They found out they were off by the news.

Methadras said...

Boehner might be a straight shooter, but he's an inside the belt way go along to get along guy. He doesn't have the stomach for this.

Balfegor said...

RE: Sofa King:

I don't really get what the big deal is. Even if they would have passed it, it would not have passed the Senate or been signed by the President.

The problem is that now Republicans have no credible negotiator on their side. Boehner can't get his own caucus to support him even on a symbolic vote. Who would bother negotiating with him now? He clearly does not speak for his own caucus. And it's not like there's any other Republican in a position to negotiate on behalf of the House.

Gahrie said...

I nominate Rep. Ryan for Speaker of the House.

mccullough said...

The big issue is the debt ceiling. This fiscal cliff isn't even an appetizer.

garage mahal said...

Which is why garage is such a fool.)

You're party is an insane asylum, but, so far they have prevented Obama from doing something stupid on a Grand Bargain that he wants desperately. So I have to thank the Tea Party insurgents for that.

KenK said...

Poor Boehner. It's hard to lead when about 1/3 of your herd won't follow. He needs to go back to his office and cry then have a smoke.

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

I've got a meme re this vote debacle:

John meant to do that. It's a brilliant and subtle strategy to rotate out of office, allow the Ds to come in and do the complicated scut work of fixing the economy, taking the political damage for anything that hurts, creating a memory space within which people will feel dreamy and altruistic about TPers, who can rest and relax, swan about speaking to those who love them, collect money, and build immense longing on the part of the American people, upon which they will build their TP 2014 campaign. They'll come back in glory.

Alex said...

I question this meme of Boehner's incompetence. There is a hard-core right wing of the GOP caucus that will not budge on taxes, is he supposed to threaten them with death or something? They will NOT go along with any compromise.

gregq said...

Gee, perhaps the Speaker shouldn't have kicked a bunch of conservatives off of committees, and then had it leaked that it was because they are "assholes".

Dear Republican Speaker: your job is to fight with Democrats, not conservative Republicans.

Alex said...

We just have to accept in politics(and in life) that people are not one monolithic herd. There is a vast spectrum of ideology out there and the genius of the Framer's system was to make sure that it would be difficult as HELL for any one ideological block to gain complete power.

KenK said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mccullough said...

It's Christmas time. Congress should go home and Obama should go to Hawaii. There is not another election for 2 years. Let taxes go up on everyone and don't raise the debt ceiling unless major reforms are made to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. The Republicans have 2 years to hold out for what they want. Hold firm and wait it out. Our fiscal problems are way too large to come up with any compromise that won't work.

I Callahan said...

They will NOT go along with any compromise.

Why should they?

Gee, perhaps the Speaker shouldn't have kicked a bunch of conservatives off of committees, and then had it leaked that it was because they are "assholes". Dear Republican Speaker: your job is to fight with Democrats, not conservative Republicans.

This time 1000. It's funny, because Romney did the same thing during the election; his campaign was nasty as hell against his opponents, but then wouldn't grow a spine against Obama.

It's time to primary every single jellyfish RINO and send them packing. Fuck 'em sideways with a swordfish.

mccullough said...

The House should also vote to repeal Medicare Part D and NCLB and let the states fund education on their own. Time to undo "compassionate conservatism" root and branch.

machine said...

Rich Lowry sighs:

"If part of what President Obama was after was Republican humiliation and disarray, it’s going better than even he could have hoped."

machine said...

"Step back and think of last night in this context: Plan B was a conservative plan with one little tiny dash of compromise, one small and mostly symbolic feather step outside the safe zone of hard-right ideology and toward...not even the center, but the far-right fringe of the center. And the Republicans could not vote even for that."

mccullough said...

Without big spending cuts and entitlement reforms, Republicans shouldn't vote for it. No more kicking the can down the road. Now is the time to fix our long term fiscal problems. If Republicans won't do it now, then they will never do it. If they will never do it, then who cares if they are out of power because the country will be insolvent within a decade.

Balfegor said...

Re: Alex:

We just have to accept in politics(and in life) that people are not one monolithic herd. There is a vast spectrum of ideology out there and the genius of the Framer's system was to make sure that it would be difficult as HELL for any one ideological block to gain complete power.

Yes, but party discipline is something different. What are the party whips for, if not to control backbench revolts on key confidence votes?

phx said...

I don't know if this is because of Boehner's incompetence or because a GOP faction is all intransigence on steroids. Since I don't have to choose I guess I won't.

But I got a feeling ALL the GOP will take the rap for it.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Who cares?

We are already screwed beyond redemption. It is baked into the cake. All they are doing is shuffling the deck chairs around on the Titanic. Everybody just get your own life preserver and take care of yourself, family and friends.

The End.

Astro said...

Regardless of whether Boehner stays or goes, it sounds like he got the beating he deserved.

After promoting a moderate for the presidency and after taking a moderate stance in dealing with the Democrats, perhaps the Republican leadership will begin to understand the greater meaning of Goldwater's admonition that moderation is no virtue -- whether pursing justice or in fighting for your principles.

Balfegor said...

Re: mccullough:

Without big spending cuts and entitlement reforms, Republicans shouldn't vote for it. No more kicking the can down the road. Now is the time to fix our long term fiscal problems. If Republicans won't do it now, then they will never do it. If they will never do it, then who cares if they are out of power because the country will be insolvent within a decade.

This is all true, but Republicans only control the House, not the Senate or the Presidency. If you want a solution now, you need a solution with buy-in from Senate democrats at minimum (if you can get their agreement, you can probably roll the President, like last time). If you actually want a solution, Republicans cannot implement a solution alone at this time.

This time around, of course, the only "solutions" were fake solutions that just kick the can down the road -- all the Boehner and Obama offers were around 10-20% the size of what we ultimately need. And that should tell us that with these players, there's no way to get a meaningful solution (primarily because no one really wants to do to entitlements what you need to do to entitlements to get back to a sustainable level of government, not even Republicans).

The most Republicans could realistically push for is a solution that nudges a little further in the direction we need to go. But they could only get that through the negotiations if they had a credible negotiator. They no longer have one. So now they'll be stuck eating whatever the Democrats prepare, or taking the blame when it all goes to pot. Which it will.

Politics is the art of the possible, as Bismarck put it: die Kunst des Möglichen. A sizeable fraction of House Republicans evidently did not realise that.

The most likely outcome now is basically that the Democrats implement Obama's proposal either with cross-over votes or massive abstentions from Republican house members.

machine said...

Balfegor is too smart for this room...logic no worky in here...

Alex said...

American history is replete with backbench revolts, it's what makes us American.

Alex said...

machine - you are way too smart for us.

sonicfrog said...

mccullough said...

The House should also vote to repeal Medicare Part D and NCLB and let the states fund education on their own. Time to undo "compassionate conservatism" root and branch


Yep. For all the belly aching the GOP has done about Bush taking the party down the wrong path, I have seen nothing from them trying to repeal any of the things that he did that they say were so bad. Do we really even need a Dept of Homeland Security, when a few changes in info sharing between agancies would have worked just fine. It's one of the reasons I stopped taking the Tea Party serious. Doing that would have given them some real cred. Instead, they just chewed around the margins, and only went after things the Dems wouldn't like, but shying away from those things that might upset their own constituents.

mccullough said...

Balfegor,

The debt cannot be increased without the support of the House Republicans. They can dictate the terms of what must be done or say let's default now and get it over with now instead of 10 years from now.

mccullough said...

Sonicfrog,

I agree that Homeland Security should go. The Republicans need to start undoing the damage they helped create.

Balfegor said...

Re: mccullough:

The debt cannot be increased without the support of the House Republicans. They can dictate the terms of what must be done or say let's default now and get it over with now instead of 10 years from now.

Yes, that's why I wrote:

So now they'll be stuck eating whatever the Democrats prepare, or taking the blame when it all goes to pot. Which it will.

I think there's a nonzero chance they'll trigger a default and the Republicans will get 100% of the blame. That would be pretty bad for the country, and devastating to the party.

Brennan said...

Pass the popcorn.

somefeller said...

Rich Lowry sighs: "If part of what President Obama was after was Republican humiliation and disarray, it’s going better than even he could have hoped."

It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas...

SteveR said...

The only real measure of this outcome will be the election of 2014. The harping of folks like Rich Lowrey is symbolic of the problem. Democrats would rather celebrate Boehner's defeat than acknowledge fiscal reality.

Brennan said...

I think there's a nonzero chance they'll trigger a default and the Republicans will get 100% of the blame. That would be pretty bad for the country, and devastating to the party.The Treasury Secretary has unlimited powers if the President just authorizes it.

We're a banana republic now when the Senates operates on a budget gimmick for over three years.

This is somehow the fault of House Republicans even though it was started when Democrats controlled the House and the Senate.

Lydia said...

There is also the complicated relationship between Boehner and Eric Cantor to consider:

[Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho)] said he has come to believe that the problems from the 2011 debt-ceiling debate stemmed more from clashes between the two men’s staffs, which have eased. There have been staff shake-ups in both offices and a joint summit in January designed to fix problems.

Seeing Red said...

One of the reasons we're in this is because the pubbies fell for the "raise taxes now, cuts later" in 1986 which begat Perot and his chart during the '92 election.

Don't we wish it was still $2 in spending for every $1 tax increase.

B said...

The most frustrating failing of the Republican party is the ingrained tendency to react to the MSM's opinion of their success or failure.

I wish for once we could get a republican leader who would turn to some reporter once again asking some inane question on partisanship or compromise and dress him or her down properly. It's not about dueling soundbites in some school yard oneupmanship contest. It's the right move or it's wrong move and you stick to what you believe. Our reps were not elected to do woo the good graces of reporters.

Obama and the democrats agreed that they could kick the can a little farther down the road but if no fiscal health improvements were implemented then the first surgery would occur at the beginning of 2013. The conservative republicans are right in insisting that without real progress in stopping the bleeding that compact be honored. No more republican agreement to once again kicking it down the road. Any rise in taxes must be temporary (ha) and at the minimum matched by cuts using honest accounting figures. Otherwise, let Obama and the democrats own any breech of that compact wholly and entirely.

I don't know if the republican house leadership hoped for and expected this outcome but if they didn't, they should have.

Tim said...

Sofa King said...

"I don't really get what the big deal is. Even if they would have passed it, it would not have passed the Senate or been signed by the President."

Right.

More Kabuki.

Cons didn't want to take a hit from constituents voting for a BS tax increase that was never going to happen as it would have been voted upon.

KenK said...

When you can't prevail no matter what...then jump on the grenade and go down doing an honorable thing. At some point all this zigging & zagging, begging, crying, makes them contemptible. Pass a bill and adjourn.

Balfegor said...

Re: Seeing Red:

One of the reasons we're in this is because the pubbies fell for the "raise taxes now, cuts later" in 1986 which begat Perot and his chart during the '92 election.

Yes, their negotiating posture should have been, from the very outset, that a deal will phase in both spending cuts and tax increases, and that actual year-to-year [X]% reduction in total spending (including both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending, excluding special appropriations, like war spending, from the baseline) needs to be certified by Treasury, OMB, and CBO (or whoever) before the tax increases are triggered the next year.

Tax increases are bad, but the middle class has been consuming a crapload of government services that they haven't been paying for -- it's all been financed through debt and rich people. And if you're going to implement a broad-based tax increase, it really has to be broad-based. On everyone.

But oh well, no use crying over spilt milk.

Tim said...

Where's Machine's list of Obama's compromises?

Anyone?

Balfegor said...

Re: SteveR:

The only real measure of this outcome will be the election of 2014. The harping of folks like Rich Lowrey is symbolic of the problem. Democrats would rather celebrate Boehner's defeat than acknowledge fiscal reality.

Yes. People, like McCullough, who think that Republican threats to leave the debt limit alone and trigger default will give them leverage over Democrats credit credit Obama with a lot more public-spiritedness than I do.

creeley23 said...

I think there's a nonzero chance they'll trigger a default and the Republicans will get 100% of the blame. That would be pretty bad for the country, and devastating to the party.

That's been my read of the Democrats' game plan all along.

Seeing Red said...

I never liked Bonehead, so I never thought he was legit.

They'll raise the debt. It's all Kabuki.

No one cares enough to stay in DC to get a deal done.

"Step back and think of last night in this context: Plan B was a conservative plan with one little tiny dash of compromise, one small and mostly symbolic feather step outside the safe zone of hard-right ideology and toward...not even the center, but the far-right fringe of the center. And the Republicans could not vote even for that."



That could be a matter of opinion.

Dems always want entitlements off the table. There's nothing anyone can do then.

Seeing Red said...

Gotta LURVE ZeroHedge:

White House
This manipulated market has become so predictable a blind, retarded monkey with a dartboard should have made enough money by now to retire 3 lifetimes over.

From 9:39 am:


zerohedge
@zerohedge @SpecSitInvestor we may well close >1% when the Fiscal Cliff deal rumor hits at 3:30pm
21 Dec 12 ReplyRetweetFavoriteSure enough, at 3:19 pm:

•White House Said to Consider Smaller Fiscal Cliff Deal: Politico
And cue melt up.

Seeing Red said...

And another from ZeroHedge:

The rumors have been flying around all morning, but now it's news...

•ITALY PRIME MINISTER MONTI RESIGNS, PRESIDENT SAYS
Italian credit spreads leaked wider all morning and EURUSD lower though the correlation to losing a technocrat is perhaps a stretch. And so the great "Mark-to-Monti" Goldman rotation (as described previously) is complete, with Goldman losing a technocratic scribe, who is no longer needed thanks to yet another Goldmanite now in charge of the ECB, but far more importantly, Goldman has now gained control over that most prized of central planner jewels: the Bank of England.

Jack Wayne said...

Dear DBQ, I always agree with you. This "fiscal cliff" is just kabuki. We are doomed. Have been for years. It's just a matter of when and are you lucky enough to survive.

Michael said...

We need to go off the cliff. Republicans will take the blame but the nominal leader of the entire country, our president, will not be able to savor this victory for long. The midterms are too far out, people's attention spans too short and the downdraft on the economy too strong. He will gather blame as the months roll on. He has no serious plan for the recovery and no plan B of his own.

Balfegor said...

Re: Michael:

We need to go off the cliff. Republicans will take the blame but the nominal leader of the entire country, our president, will not be able to savor this victory for long.

And here I was thinking maybe I'll put my money into a treasury waterfall. Well, I still might if the rates/discounts jump.

So . . . anyone have a recommendation for which currencies are least linked to the US dollar? My inclination is just to drop my cash into KRW and JPY, not because I think they're necessarily well positioned to weather out the Obama years (though I am much heartened by the victories by the LDP and Park Geunhye), but because I actually use KRW and JPY regularly. But I'm open to other suggestions . . .

Want to move a chunk out before December 31.

Robert Cook said...

The Fiscal Cliff is Fiction owned jointly by the Republicrats and the Democans.

Strelnikov said...

Cliff! Cliff! Cliff!

Let it burn.

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

If a con would rather see America default than see the tax rate for rich folks go to ClInton levels, isn't it obvious that they hate America?

What else do you call it?

Solomon already ran this test.

Balfegor said...

Re: Strelnikov:

Cliff! Cliff! Cliff!

Let it burn
.

I knew someone would say that.

Re: Robert Cook:

That guy at Counterpunch is just arguing that we can fund essentially unlimited government through seigniorage/debasement of the currency. One can see the superficial appeal of such an approach, but historically that's been a risky strategy and the downside is pretty horrific.

Balfegor said...

Re: PBandJ:

If a con would rather see America default than see the tax rate for rich folks go to ClInton levels, isn't it obvious that they hate America?

The flip side is that if Obama would rather see America default than implement serious spending cuts that will satisfy a faction of the Republicans, isn't it obvious that he hates America?

AJ Lynch said...

I love how j-bag journolistors like little Ezra love to write about the inside baseball stuff. As if the average person gives a damn wbout Boehner.

What they do care about is that after 12/31, the payroll tax goes back to 6.2% from the temoorary 4.2% and that will cost the average worker about $50 in a bi-weekly payroll.

Who will get the blame from the peoople? IMO, every elected pol in The Imperial City. Too bad, little fawning Dem-lovers like Ezra don't get some blame too. If the media actually did an honest job, people would understand we are broke and we HAVE TO CUT SPENDING.

Steve Koch said...

When the debt ceiling is not reauthorized, the USA does not immediately default or necessarily default at all. The cost to service the debt, while enormous, is still way less than tax revenue. In 2012 the cost to service the debt was $360 billion. Revenue for the fed gov was somewhere between 2 and 2.5 trillion bucks. The debt could still easily be serviced so the USA would not default on its bonds.

Government spending would have to be reduced but there would be no need to completely shut down the government.

Since the GOP would certainly increase the debt limit to avoid chaos, the real question is by how much. If the GOP managed to significantly decrease the size of the yearly budget deficit, that would be great progress and need not be traumatic to the economy.

Control of the debt ceiling is a great tool for the GOP and it is key that they use it to incrementally reduce fed spending to get it closer to historical levels in terms of percentage of the GNP.


pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

Bal,

I guess so. But, my gut tells me that some House Rs are more eager to split the proverbial baby in half.

I could be wrong about my interpretation. Btw, believe it or not, your assessment is also not the result of devine intervention.



Steve Koch said...

Great point, AJ. The public will immediately notice the drop in their paycheck (and they will be POed) while who knows when Obama will actually reduce spending (we've seen that Chicago pols are not big on following the law), let alone when the effects of that reduction will impact the economy.

garage mahal said...

The flip side is that if Obama would rather see America default than implement serious spending cuts that will satisfy a faction of the Republicans, isn't it obvious that he hates America?

The country just voted on what they wanted to happen. Unless you're suggesting America hates America.

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

"Control of the debt ceiling is a great tool for the GOP and it is key that they use it to incrementally reduce fed spending to get it closer to historical levels in terms of percentage of the GNP."

Are you pushing the "die sooner" health plan? How else do you use less dough to provide unchanged levels of care to an increasing number of old folks?

Btw, what about getting fed revenue (as % gdp) closer to historical levels (eg the Reagan years).

O Ritmo Segundo said...

That's what happens when you give a majority to the party that had half a million less votes.

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

But garage, fewer Americans voted for House Rs than voted for House Ds. So, obviously, the House TPers should get whatever they want.

Democracy baby!

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

Ritmo got there first.

Oshbgosh said...

The Obama recession is nearly upon us. The President won't be able to avoid it. With the Speaker going down in flames, it shows he did all that was within his power. Obama has not made a commensurate effort and will be left holding the recession bag.

Aaron said...

I have to say that there might be a silver lining in appearing to be a weak leader. Then people expect less of you. You are held to a lower standard of responsibility. No one expects you to act because "your hands are tied."

I also will enjoy watching every single Democrat who told me that tax rates do not affect the economy, suddenly get economic religion when we go off the cliff.

Aaron said...

Boehner just showed that he does not have the votes.

Maybe some Dems should have crossed over if they felt it was important.

They did not, so its obvious the Dems don't care.

I have a feeling a lot of people secretly want to go off the cliff...too many hard decisions can be done on auto-pilot this way and no one has to take the blame - everyone has a scapegoat.

Methadras said...

garage mahal said...

Which is why garage is such a fool.)

You're party is an insane asylum, but, so far they have prevented Obama from doing something stupid on a Grand Bargain that he wants desperately. So I have to thank the Tea Party insurgents for that.


No it isn't you insipid mongoloid. Your party is the party of lunatics that speak with one voice and that voice is to such the wealth and prosperity from this country from those that produce to those that don't to maintain their power structure. Republicans might not have their act together, but at least they understand that the fiscal health of the country and its citizens is more paramount than personal power like your party is.

The democrat party is the party of easy. It's basically the Staples easy button.

Methadras said...

garage mahal said...

The country just voted on what they wanted to happen. Unless you're suggesting America hates America.


No, you dumb fat fuck, a group of americans that are total and utter morons and are democrats hate america. People like you and the other scums bags that you associate with in like mind.

phx said...

No, you dumb fat fuck, a group of americans that are total and utter morons and are democrats hate america. People like you and the other scums bags that you associate with in like mind.

So is this what conservatives think about Democrats or people who voted for Obama? Sounds to me like a lot of them do.

phx said...

I suppose he's a moby.

bardseyeview said...

Having taxes go up is very good, I say good, for republicans. Two years from now, if you want your taxes to go down, and these two parties are the only choices, you'll vote republican, and you won't stay home either.

The pubbies had a problem when the rates were already as low as they realistically were going to get. Might as well vote dem if your taxes are already low.

Now that they're higher, people have a reason and a need to vote republican again.

Balfegor said...

Re: garage

I realise it's your schtick to be a bit thick but I am being facetious. Pb&j is trying out the wisdom of Solomon here -- that would mean the side willing to abandon all its negotiating points to stave off default is the side that truly loves America (willing to give the baby to the other claimant). Neither side loves America so much that they are willing to let the other side get away with everything they want.