November 21, 2012

"Upwards of 15 prominent Republicans are privately contemplating 2016 campaigns for the presidency..."

"... and the most serious and ambitious of the bunch are already plunging in, some quite publicly."

There's a gallery of 18 at the link. Can you predict them all before looking? Who were you happiest to see? Who are your top 5 picks? Are there 2 from your state? There are 2 from mine.

136 comments:

shiloh said...

Hope springs eternal! :)

McTriumph said...

I only see five.

Chuck66 said...

Whoever says "change" the most, and promises free birth control pills to everyone. That is how I support.

Mr. D said...

I'm from Minnesota. Needless to say, we have no contenders at this time.

Wisconsin has Ryan and Walker represented in this rogue's gallery, but I wonder if Ron Johnson might give it a go, too. He might actually be a better candidate than either of the two more prominent Wisconsinites.

And, no more Bushes, please.

shiloh said...

Bush/Christie and also-rans. I'm going under the assumption that Reps actually want to win in '16.

Ayotte?
Haley?
Jindal?
Paul?
Santo?
McDonnell?
Bachmann?

Seriously ?!?

Peter Hoh said...

Not looking at the list, and giving myself a two-minute limit, here are the only names I can think of:

Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Rick Santorum

Peter Hoh said...

Ah, yes, forgot about Michele Bachmann, the only declared candidate for the GOP nomination who won election on November 6.

McTriumph said...

Peter Hoh said...
Not looking at the list, and giving myself a two-minute limit, here are the only names I can think of:

Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Rick Santorum

Scratch Christie and Santorum,

Ira said...

I wonder who will be the Dem's candidate...

somefeller said...

Jeb Bush. His slogan can be: Finish the Trilogy!

harrogate said...

Palin!

shiloh said...

Well let's cut to the chase knowing the MSM wants Jeb/Hillary.

Too funny (4) years MSM was aching for mama grizzly. Hey, at least she had a pulse! You bet'cha!

Reps current wannabe list: Christie has a personality. Jeb, hmm. The rest of the pack, not so much.

Worst case scenario Reps have another ad nauseam, endless train wreck primary and Hillary gets anointed from the get go. :)

Let the games begin ...

Beldar said...

If we had picked as the GOP presidential nominee in 2012 the Republican who had done the most to lead the party and the country in the last four years, Paul Ryan would have been on top of the ticket, not its Veep nominee.

I'm inclined to support him for 2016, but I frankly want to see him continue to lead, from the House Budget Committee chair and otherwise, during the next two years.

Can we stop picking candidates who, at any given time, might have been okay four years ago?

Michael Haz said...

Rubio, Ryan and Walker are the first-tier candidates. Jindal is close. Palin should be on that list, but was excluded for the author's reasons.

The others are all running for VP, except Christie, who is running to replace Clarence Clemmons.

Phil 3:14 said...

I think New England, Baltimore, Denver, Altanta and SF are my top picks but it will be a competitive NFL playoff. I could see Houston getting to the Super Bowl too.

McTriumph said...

Palin won't run, she has more influence doing what she's doing.

campy said...

Doesn't matter who runs. We've seen our last ever repub president.

jimbino said...

The right-wing social fascists are washed up.

What we need is a Rand Paul, Gary Johnson or one of the others of libertarian persuasion, who can return the Republican Party to the social middle and the economic right, particularly to federalism (states' rights).

Paul Ryan, Michele Bachmann and the other social fascists should be happy to just fade away.

Methadras said...

The only serious ones I'd contend with are Rand, Christi, Bush, Ryan, Walker, and Rubio. And in no particular order.

McTriumph said...

Campy
The media and pundits have declared both political parties lifeless corpses so many times in my life. Four years is a life time in politics.

Ronald Ward said...

That's a rather laughable lot.

Michael K said...

Much depends on what kind of shape the country is in then. If we have not yet entered bankruptcy or hyperinflation, Ryan and Jindal would be good prospects. Rubio is OK but looks too young and doesn't have much to offer like Ryan does.

Hillary will be as old as McCain was and Biden will be dead, most likely. The Democrats have no bench but they have done enough damage to last half a century.

McTriumph said...

Methadras said...
The only serious ones I'd contend with are Rand, Christi, Bush, Ryan, Walker, and Rubio. And in no particular order.


Scratch Christie and walker.

SteveR said...

Martinez was my District Attorney ans now governor. I really like her but not sure she's ready for the leap. I have a very good feeling about Ayotte. Add in Haley and it would be interesting to see one of them go up against Slow Joe of Sleepy.

elkh1 said...

Who are your top 5 picks?

Rubio, Rubio, Rubio, Rubio, Rubio

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

Christie would be the most fun. Ryan would be the most substantive. Rubio would be, I think, the likeliest actually to win.

Martinez and Haley are too green at this point to make serious Presidential candidates (yeah, I would have said the same of Obama in 2008, so what do I know?). Either of them would make a good VP nominee. Jindal might possibly be the smartest of the field, but that exorcism business isn't something that can easily be walked back. Walker would be terrific, frankly. I doubt it will happen, but it would be nice if it did.

Walker/Christie/Ryan/Rubio/Martinez. Pick any two, any order.

campy said...

The media and pundits have declared both political parties lifeless corpses so many times in my life.

Doesn't mean it's not true this time.

dcm said...

Palin has too much influence? With whom?

dcm said...

Fox News, yes. The mainstream which republicans lost, not for 4 years.

Maguro said...

I'm with campy, the Rs are fucked regardless of who they nominate.

sydney said...

I wonder who will be the Dem's candidate...

Obama. And he will win. With 100% of the "vote."

edutcher said...

Well, it is Politico, so it's their idea of who's running.

If they don't have Kasich, they don't have a clue.

shiloh said...

Bush/Christie and also-rans. I'm going under the assumption that Reps actually want to win in '16.

Ayotte?
Haley?
Jindal?
Paul?
Santo?
McDonnell?
Bachmann?

Seriously ?!?


The Hildabeast?

Joe?

Andy Cuomo?

Actually, the Demos' worst nightmare would be Susana Martinez.

The first woman, the first Mexican (forget this Hispanic nonsense).

I see the little weasel is chastened after this morning's
misadventures, but we still want to know, where were you hiding out 10/5 - 11/5 when the Romster was winning?

Fluffing Hillary's ponytail?

Saint Croix said...

GQ already asked Rubio how old the earth is. 4 years before the election and they're trying to frame him already.

Liberals are terrified of identity politics, since that's all they know how to do. Rubio scares them like Palin scared them.

SteveR said...

the Rs are fucked regardless of who they nominate

Against who?

Baron Zemo said...

Rubio needs to take a page out of Palin's book and one out of Obama's.

He should have said to the reporter "That's a stupid question and what you prejudiced against Latino's?"

Let's stick it right back at them.

Baron Zemo said...

Rubio needs to take a page out of Palin's book and one out of Obama's.

He should have said to the reporter "That's a stupid question and what you prejudiced against Latino's?"

Let's stick it right back at them.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

edutcher,

Actually, the Demos' worst nightmare would be Susana Martinez.

The first woman, the first Mexican (forget this Hispanic nonsense).


In my own experience of arguing with Leftists and watching others argue with Leftists (I don't mean "liberals" or "Democrats"; I mean Leftists), there are certain norms of civility that are observed ... unless the rightward person is female or nonwhite or Hispanic or gay or (worse yet) more than one of the above.

People, it gets nasty, very nasty, very quickly, if you are a female/nonwhite/Hispanic/gay conservative. You're just not allowed to be that. White males (the closer to the grave the better) are grudgingly allowed to be conservatives, because they don't really know any better. Everyone else ought to be on the Left, and if you are not, you're definitionally scum.

I believe Michelle Malkin has an email archive that will supply the general flavor, but honestly you can get it from every story of every political campaign by anyone who didn't vote as [insert group here] are obviously supposed to.

cf said...

Everybody who has gotten this far through these vilifying times deserves a salute, I wish every one of them well.

I am proud of every Tea Party person and Libertarian and Republican person, win or lose, who has withstood the demagoguery and false accusations of the Leftist Corporate Media.

I wanna spend this cozy night, Thanksgiving Eve! dreaming of the best possible outcome starting Now.

I dream President Obama realizes what a sweet deal the Ryan/Romney budget plans would be to his Legacy, and invites them to come on in and, Reid instructed to follow in the interest of Bipartisanship, pass their game-changing, historic BUDGET!!! leavened with a tax on the very very highest 1%, just for show -- the first budget in three years!!! officially done, saving entitlements into the future, etcetera. what a Hero he would be.

I dream Obama invites Dick Cheney and his daughters to lead up a Review of gays in the military, and what Contracts are needed? Brilliant! Let it be all their fault, and all his glory. And ask their advice on Gay Marriage. Bipartisan nation-healing and discussion and leadership, initiated by the man pre-maturely awarded the Nobel, but might yet deserve.

I dream Bill and Hillary Clinton invite Sarah Palin etc to a C-span symposium on abortion and the law, airing the hard real truths, and arrive at some wiser understanding as a nation.

I'm going on too long . . . but quick quick

I dream America insists that no Tribe or Sect has a right to murder others because of a difference of belief. I dream America insists on non-violence between peoples. Free Speech. No violence.

[It is sad that because we are dealing with are barbaric forces, willing to destroy giant ancient Buddhist statues, and slit any of our throats. So we must be willing to be violent to stop such morbid violence.]

Is there some old-lady militia I can join? Where do I sign?

o, and happy thanksgiving, my favorite holy day.

McTriumph said...

dcm said...
Palin has too much influence? With whom?

Well, I guess I would ask myself how many on that list did Palin help elect. Politics isn't just what you see or are told on TV.

ricpic said...

Given the economic and social horrors right up ahead and given that the Republican Party will not offer a genuine unapologetic conservative alternative to the liberal induced catastrophe, the Republican Party will go the way of the Whigs, possibly as early as 2014. But by 2016 there will definitely be a true conservative party to which traditional (which is to say deeply bigoted and retrograde Americans in Althousespeak) can turn. Still, it's kind of cute to see the Republicans behaving as if what Titanic? what Iceberg? who's going down?

McTriumph said...

Saint Croix said...
GQ already asked Rubio how old the earth is. 4 years before the election and they're trying to frame him already.

The media has been running with that for the last 48 hours. Someone should point out that it's basically the same answer Obama gave in 2008.

wyo sis said...

It looks like a pathetic lot until you try to think of even five Dems.

AprilApple said...

Notice Politico's photo of Rubio is grainy and dark. Really - that's the only photo you could find, Politico?

Alex said...

Notice shiloh has an obsessive need to troll every thread about Republicans. I think any psychiatrist would be very interested in him.

somefeller said...

I wonder if Nate Silver will still be doing political poll analysis in 2016 or if he will have gone on to other, perhaps more lucrative activities? In any case, the President mentioned him in a little joke today a the traditional Thanksgiving turkey pardon. He is such a kidder, that President of ours. We're lucky to have him around until the next troupe of players comes onstage in 2016.

Alex said...

Can anyone tell me how a super right winger like Ayotte got elected Senator in New Hampshire?

McTriumph said...

There are some very bright, young and attractive possibilities on that republican list.

Speaking of attractive, I'm a little depressed, I'm watching Vivian Leigh in Gone With The Wind and realised the most beautiful women ever to be on film are all dead.

ricpic said...

Ah yes, but we have the slutty Kate Upton.

dcm said...

McTriumph-
We could also ask: how many republican seats in the senate did she help let the dems take? Quite a few.

ricpic said...

Hey, GOBBLE GOBBLE, everybody.

dcm said...

Slutty Kate Upton? Maybe so and maybe not. But she is hot as hell.

Peter Hoh said...

I have trouble seeing Walker as a national contender.

Could Perry rehabilitate his image after his run in the primaries this year? I don't think so.

Santorum -- I realize that the Republicans have a tendency to nominate the candidate who came in second during the previous primary season, but I wouldn't bet a wooden nickel on Santorum winning the 2016 nomination.

On the basis of her convention speech, Martinez seems to have more charisma than most of the guys on the list. Can she compete in the Money Primary?

shiloh said...

"Rubio scares them like Palin scared them"

Continued Althouse ad nauseam, con nonsense aside, Jim Messina said the Obama campaign initially was most worried about Jon Huntsman ie a bi-partisan moderate Rep ~ gasp!

Santo/Newt/Cain/Perry/Bachmann/severely con mittens ~ not so much ...

>

hmm, Jim Messina

dcm said...

I think that the problem with walker is that he doesn't have a college degree. The dem ads would skewer him on that.

Joe said...

I'm with Jimbino; social middle, economic conservatism is the key. The notion that doubling down on social conservatism is a winning strategy is beyond absurd, which is why most of those candidates are losers out-of-the-gate.

Jeb Bush is probably the most qualified candidate except most Americans aren't going to be eager for yet another Bush.

Peter Hoh said...

McTriumph: The media has been running with that for the last 48 hours. Someone should point out that it's basically the same answer Obama gave in 2008.

Here you go: Who Said It: Marco Rubio or Barack Obama?

machine said...

Allen West!!!!!

edutcher said...

shiloh said...

Rubio scares them like Palin scared them

Continued Althouse ad nauseam, con nonsense aside, Jim Messina said the Obama campaign initially was most worried about Jon Huntsman ie a bi-partisan moderate Rep ~ gasp!


Suuuure they were.

The only thing worrying them was could they steal enough votes?

Santo/Newt/Cain/Perry/Bachmann/severely con mittens ~ not so much ...

That why they were running scared all year.

And, on the subject of running scared, where were you hiding out 10/5 - 11/5 when the Romster was winning?

Making sure Joe didn't mix his PoliGrip with his Metamucil?

mccullough said...

Jeb Bush is the most accomplished of this group. He was a very good governor. His older, less qualified brother has ruined his chances. Walker in a few years might also have a very good record on the fiscal issues that will count in 2016. An accomplished governor is the GOP's best bet. Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush were the best GOP governors of the past 25 years. Maybe Walker can get there in 4 years.

elkh1 said...

shiloh said... "Bush/Christie"

Are you kidding?

Bush: too old. Waiting for George P.

Christie cooked himself as Obama's puppet, incompetent in dealing with Sandy, has promised to raise taxes. He can't get re-elected in NJ. What is left of him: big mouth.

McTriumph said...

dcm said...
McTriumph-
We could also ask: how many republican seats in the senate did she help let the dems take? Quite a few.

Maybe one, but her %s are very good. Whose to say a Republican could have won a specific seat any way considering how the election went.

Kate is hot, but she's not Vivian Leigh or Heddy Lamar or a 20 year old Elizabeth Taylor

Joe Schmoe said...

Nope. Not gonna do it. I'm not biting on getting all revved up for the next election. Not the right time. Time to put on the overalls and fix some shit.

Titus said...

Someone from the West or Midwest only could win.

dcm said...

McTriumph
I agree she is no 20 year old Liz. I'd take her over Headly Lamar. Even up on Vivian.

dcm said...

McTriumph-
The thing I like about her is that she has some curves, some womanness. too many models look like 15 year old boys.

Peter Hoh said...

Whose to say a Republican could have won a specific seat any way considering how the election went.

It is with great confidence that I say that Mike Castle, had he been the Republican nominee in 2010, would have won the Senate seat currently held by a Democrat.

Sheridan said...

Ted Cruz from Texas!!

shiloh said...

"Nope. Not gonna do it."

Indeed as it wouldn't be prudent at this juncture ...

McTriumph said...

Christie is dead for now. Rank and file republicans understand why he had to grovel to Obama, especially since Obama has ignored red state disasters for political calculations, but he didn't have to blow him.

Ali Karim Bey said...

THIS IS A BAD IDEA.

WHAT THE GOP NEEDS TO FOCUS IS THE FOLLOWING:

- Fall in love with scientists.
- Kiss the journalists, esp. at NYT.
- Accept interests of women and min es. Think of them as YOUR EQUALS.
- Focus on innovation, set goals, measure the progress.
- AVOID BAD GOP MEN WHO ARE LIKE DINOSAURS - like Santorum, Newt, Ron Paul, etc. When they speak, do the CROSS on your chest to avoid evil spirits.

IF the GOP wants to win, they must LEAD.

How can one LEAD? By being forward thinker.

McTriumph said...

dcm said...
McTriumph-
The thing I like about her is that she has some curves, some womanness. too many models look like 15 year old boys.

I get your drift, she's an E-Ride at Disneyland.

dcm said...

Did Palin endorse that stupid fuck in Mizz.? And the not stupid man, but a man who didn't know when to shut his trap in IN? I am not being rhetorical, I don't know and I am too lazy to google.

Ali Karim Bey said...

I will never give even a lousy cent to Christie. He is FINISHED. Kaput. Same with Santorum, Newt, and Paul. All 4 destroyed the good Romney.

edutcher said...

Miss Sarah's endorsement average is about 70%, unlike Willie or Choom, both of whom are in negative territory. She wanted Sarah Silverman in MO.

The Demos wanted Akin.

We need to pull that on them a lot next time.

PS I see the little weasel's riffing off Dana Carvey.

It's about all he has.

dcm said...

I am guessing that you don't think she has the spark. I think that she might not as well. hot as last july in wisconsin, though.

Titus said...

Mary Cheney, kill two birds with one stone?

Titus said...

The womyn in NH won in 2010, she wont win in NH next time-she's stupid "loon".

garage mahal said...

Search.

Might as well click that link, righties, burn one, and worry about 2016 later. Going to be a loooong slog.

But as long as we're pundit-rin': Maybe Tim Tebow?

Big Mike said...

McDonnell is there, and ought to be. I assume shiloh is down on him because he absolutely hates it when Republican governors show up their Democrat predecessors.

I sort of wish the federal government had a COO to go with the front man CEO (president). I see him as being stronger in the doing, not as much in the showy parts. But I'm ready to be persuaded otherwise.

BTW, they couldn't have picked a less flattering picture of Ayotte, could they?

Titus said...

How bout the Wisconsin dyke in 2020?

Titus said...

How's the governor from Nevada?

Ali Karim Bey said...

Avoid Palin, too.

REMEMBER: If you want to win, ACT Like a WINNER.

These bad GOP: Palin, Newt, Santorum, Jim D, Christie. are bad, bad, and bad.

I like Kelly. I like Jindal. I like Bush. I like Scott W.

Others are bad and worse.

You cannot win with dumb people.

You need to love scientists, journalists, women and minorities, etc.

Fall in love, GOP!

Titus said...

Bobby detestes science, even though he went to Brown.

Check out Lousishitholes school system.

McTriumph said...

dcm said...
Did Palin endorse that stupid fuck in Mizz.?

No Palin endorsed Sarah Steelman, I believe a business woman with Cerner Corp, against Atkin in the primary, a three way primary.

McCaskill and the DNC spent more than a million dollars to insure an Atkin win. That's who the Dems determined to be the weakest opponent. Truth is Adkins would have won had he not shot his mouth off, "legitimate rape"? Missourians hate Claire, but WTF!

Titus said...

Penn governor, how bout him? Or Ohio governor? Think swingers. Def, Wisconsin governor-he is effective speaker-I don't mind him. I would do him too. The wife is huge tubby though-could hurt.

tits.

dcm said...

McTriumph-
That will be six years of shit.

McTriumph said...

dcm
Six years is a long time. We'll see if Claire can rehabilitate herself, she knew she was in deep shit this time.

dcm said...

McT- True enough. Should have lost. Will lose in 6 years if no change. Time to sleep. Good night all.

Lydia said...

If the Dems run Hillary, won't it have to be Susana Martinez?

David said...

I immediately counted 8 that have no chance of becoming President.

McTriumph said...

2016 will be

Hillary / insert male black ivy league pol here


Rubio / trump with Condi Rice

McTriumph said...

Rubio & Rice play the race card against Hillary like Obama did, only without lube.

Lydia said...

Or Hillary could pick for her veep San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who gave the keynote address at the Dem convention.

EMD said...

Speaking of attractive, I'm a little depressed, I'm watching Vivian Leigh in Gone With The Wind and realised the most beautiful women ever to be on film are all dead.

You could always go with amazing eyes and a perfect RP accent.

And she can act, too!

Peter said...

All four of the women on the list are hairless.

McTriumph said...

Check out Lousishitholes school system.

My guess is that over a hundred years of Democratic control of all branches of government has taken it's tole.

McTriumph said...

toll

Ali Karim Bey said...

GOP:

You just got your butt kicked. Your corpse is not even cold yet (less than 4-weeks).

INSTEAD of focusing on 2016, how about doing something in coming year?

How about showing your vision?
How about loving scientists?
How about accepting women and minorities as equals?

Focus on HERE AND NOW.

Future will take care of itself.

Huan said...

Palin

Ali Karim Bey said...

GOP:

Watch Lincoln the movie. Watch him tell his cabinet to focus on results: HERE and NOW.

GOP: Forget 2016.

INtead focus on 2013. Then 2014.

Got it?

Patrick said...

Bachmann and Perry disqualify themselves even by considering a run.

Freeman Hunt said...

And Politico picked bad pictures of every one.

The Godfather said...

This exercise is fun, but pointless. Not pointless for the candidates. Four years is barely enough time to organize to run a presidential election. Pointless for us, who are not running. At least we should wait until the mid-terms to see what the battle ground is going to look like.

But those who say the Republicans can't win whoever they run are either engaged in wishful thinking (if they are Democrats) or defeatism (if they are Republicans). Since the beginning of the 20th Century, we've had a pretty well-established pattern of changing parties every 8 years. There have been exceptions, of course, but to assume that the Democratic candidate will win in 2016 is to assume that Obama will be regarded as being as successful as Reagan, and that the Republican candidate will be as bad as Dukakis. Possible, but not likely.

Patrick said...

Santorum too.

McTriumph said...

Patrick
Bachmann won't run, it hurt her re-election this time.

Perry might be able to politically rehabilitate himself. Many believe his debate performance or lack of it was due to the back surgery he had the week before. Good drugs.

Freeman Hunt said...

You know what? I don't know why a decent person should run. A decent person might run, but he certainly wouldn't owe it to anybody.

We complain about the outrageous double standard in the media, but how is that media still around? It's around because people support it. People consume it.

So are people, that is: us, owed some great person to be a Presidential candidate?

No.

Freeman Hunt said...

I think that right now we have the President we deserve.

McTriumph said...

All this BS about the demise of the Republican party is laughable. To believe the Democrats and MSM talking heads, is to believe they have Republican's interest a heart and is to believe Jon Huntsman would have kicked Obama's ass.

Lydia said...

Freeman said:

And Politico picked bad pictures of every one.

You're right!

Hadn't really noticed all the others because I was struck by the photo they chose for Rubio. I've never seen such an unflattering one of him, or one that emphasized his, uh, comb-over like that.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

Freeman Hunt,

You know what? I don't know why a decent person should run. A decent person might run, but he certainly wouldn't owe it to anybody.

Chesterton (quoted from memory): "I doubt the best people ever would devote themselves to politics. The best people generally devote themselves to pigs and babies and things like that."

somefeller said...

But those who say the Republicans can't win whoever they run are either engaged in wishful thinking (if they are Democrats) or defeatism (if they are Republicans). Since the beginning of the 20th Century, we've had a pretty well-established pattern of changing parties every 8 years. There have been exceptions, of course, but to assume that the Democratic candidate will win in 2016 is to assume that Obama will be regarded as being as successful as Reagan, and that the Republican candidate will be as bad as Dukakis. Possible, but not likely.

This is true. Unless the GOP really blows it (not impossible, as this past election showed, but not how one should bet), 2016 is likely to be a GOP year based on simple 8 year cycles. If Obama is able to appoint 2 or 3 Supreme Court Justices, that'll end up diminishing the draw of social issues for the Democrats, because the wolves will no longer be at the door for Roe v. Wade, etc. As long as the GOP stays on the smart side of the candidate line (Jindal, Bush and the like) and doesn't accentuate the culturally resentful wing of their coalition, it should do well.

jimspice said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jimspice said...

So I assume you guys will be OK with us referring to Jindal as Piyush from here on out?

Mutaman said...

Think Ryan would carry Janesville?

Mutaman said...

Think Ryan would carry Janesville?

jimspice said...

Or Nimrata Randhawa Haley?

McTriumph said...

I think something that's been over looked, even blue states are incrementally at a glacial speed moving to the right. Wisconsin is an example. Of course that doesn't mean electoral successes in those blue states in my lifetime, but then I'm old.

edutcher said...

somefeller said...

But those who say the Republicans can't win whoever they run are either engaged in wishful thinking (if they are Democrats) or defeatism (if they are Republicans). Since the beginning of the 20th Century, we've had a pretty well-established pattern of changing parties every 8 years. There have been exceptions, of course, but to assume that the Democratic candidate will win in 2016 is to assume that Obama will be regarded as being as successful as Reagan, and that the Republican candidate will be as bad as Dukakis. Possible, but not likely.

This is true. Unless the GOP really blows it (not impossible, as this past election showed, but not how one should bet), 2016 is likely to be a GOP year based on simple 8 year cycles. If Obama is able to appoint 2 or 3 Supreme Court Justices, that'll end up diminishing the draw of social issues for the Democrats, because the wolves will no longer be at the door for Roe v. Wade, etc. As long as the GOP stays on the smart side of the candidate line (Jindal, Bush and the like) and doesn't accentuate the culturally resentful wing of their coalition, it should do well.


Of course, some phony folksy would have said Ronald Reagan was not on the "smart side of the candidate line", so go in the opposite direction.

That said, the Republicans didn't "blow it", the Chicago crowd stole it.

Big difference.

And it's going to be interesting to see who actually retires from SCOTUS the next 4 years.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

jimspice,

If you are suggesting that those famously bigoted Southerners in SC and LA only voted for Haley and Jindal because they hadn't a clue that either was Asian-American, I think you are mistaken. (I also think it's fascinating that the only Asian-American governors we have, and so far as I know the only ones we have had, are Republicans in the Deep South.)

Interesting, though, that it worked the other way in Obama's case. He seems to have been "Barry" in college, "Barack" later on, and proudly "Barack Hussein" for a time.

LoafingOaf said...

Rand Paul makes a lot of sense on a lot of issues. He won't get far in the GOP presidential race, however, because he'd rather send professors to Iran than bombs. The GOP is full of too many fake Christians to go for that sort of thinking.

McTriumph said...

LoafingOaf
Why would Rand Paul send professors to Iran? They have plenty.

Palladian said...

Rand Paul makes a lot of sense on a lot of issues. He won't get far in the GOP presidential race, however, because he'd rather send professors to Iran than bombs.

Professors always fix things! Life is like "Gilligan's Island", don't you know?!

McTriumph said...

edutcher brought up RR and it reminded me of working to dump Ford here in KC at the 1976 convention, we failed, Ford went on to lose to Carter. The republicans were dead, the right-wing had destroyed Ford and the party from within. Four years later BOOM! Of course we had to give the Rockefeller Republicans a grope with Bush as VP.

bgates said...

GQ already asked Rubio how old the earth is.

Correct answer: "Geologists estimate the age of the earth in years as roughly 1.2 times the number of dollars of debt incurred by Barack Obama yesterday."

McTriumph said...

TOUCHDOWN! BGATE!

Lydia said...

I don't understand why any conservative would approach an interview with anyone in the MSM as if it were going to be fair. This must be due to some very deep-seated desire to be liked by the cool kids in class, or something.

Whatever the reason, it's just stupid.

gadfly said...

Mike Pence? Seriously? What is a Brian Sandoval? And after Sandy, Chris Christie could not be elected Dog Catcher unless he changes party.

Those who dislike Palin have never been to any of her campaign rallies. Serious gravitas.

Angelo Codevilla says: “Sarah Palin is a political talent we haven’t seen since Ronald Reagan.”

Go to Netflix and watch "Sarah Palin: The Undefeated." Two hours long but you will watch every minute.

damikesc said...

If more than 3 are running, it's a waste. Some people need folks to sit them down and force them to confront reality.

If you're a House member --- you have no chance. Sorry.

Ayotte?
Haley?
Jindal?
Paul?
Santo?
McDonnell?
Bachmann?


Ayotte is decent but --- no, not this time.

Haley? No. She pales in comparison to Sanford (no matter his personal demons, he was a truly outstanding governor who managed to actually make our DMV the friggin' model of efficiency where one could do almost anything and be done within 5 minutes of entering the office --- and that is going away quickly). People who think Haley would be a great President aren't really looking at her track record here. Ignore that the state GOP hates her because the state party is run by morons. Most people prefer her over the abysmal Democratic option, but few hold her out as being all that great.

Jindal is solid. He'd be a good choice.

Rand Paul is the future. Now is not his time, but soon, absolutely.

The rest? Nah.

edutcher said...

I agree Rand Paul is one of many future options for the Republicans; both The Blonde (who also likes Rubio and Perry) and I like his approach.

gadfly said...

Mike Pence? Seriously? What is a Brian Sandoval? And after Sandy, Chris Christie could not be elected Dog Catcher unless he changes party.

Those who dislike Palin have never been to any of her campaign rallies. Serious gravitas.


She's certainly helped a lot of people get elected.

Insta's floated the idea she should get an interview show and become the Red State Oprah.

(maybe she can introduce the Real One)

shiloh said...

"TOUCHDOWN! BGATE!"

Interesting delusional Althouse cons are giving themselves ^5s just after Willard got his butt kicked and (2) mos. before Obama's 2nd inaugural.

ok, ok, who am I to take away someone's illogical ...

Repeating:

As David Frum has been talkin' about recently and I posted a couple years ago and updated yesterday, Reps have a #s problem:

1992 ~ 37.5% Bush41 an incum­bent pres­i­dent who won Bart’s er the 1st Gulf War.

1996 ~ 40.7% Dole

2000 ~ 47.9% against a very, very weak can­di­date Gore.

2004 ~ 50.7% as an in­cum­bent wartime Rep ran against a very, very weak Kerry.

2008 ~ 45.7% as the best Reps could come up with, Mc­Cain, didn’t have a dog’s chance in hell af­ter (8) years of cheney/​​​bush.

2012 ~ 47.8% as Willard had a con bil­lion­aire $$$ advantage.

>

The good news ;) for Reps ~ the updated aver­age has gone from 44.5% to ( 45.05% ) for the last (6) pres­i­den­tial elections.


delusions of grandeur!

Bottom line, Reps have a #s problem as no Dem pres candidate has received less than (256) electoral votes the past (6) presidential elections.

And the #s will only get worse w/changing demos. The voters aren't buying what extreme cons are selling ~ go figure.

Again, Obama would have won w/out OH/VA/FL. And AZ/TX are getting more purple by the hour ...

blessings

shiloh said...

Apologies as Willard is now down to 47.5% so change 45.05 to a flat (45%) over the last (6) elections. How low can you go! :)

Ann Althouse said...

"Jim Messina said the Obama campaign initially was most worried about Jon Huntsman ie a bi-partisan moderate Rep ~ gasp!"

Yeah, I saw that. Laughed. Didn't blog it, but if I had, it would have been to give a short scoff of disbelief. Consider it scoffed at.

shiloh said...

Consider it scoffed at.

Likewise Althouse delusions of grandeur! Bottom line, it didn't really matter as con billionaires could have thrown $$$ at Newt/Santo/Cain/Perry/Willard etc. w/pretty much the same result.

Indeed as a scoffing loser is still just a loser ...

You can put lipstick and earrings on a hog and call it Monique, but it's still a pig!

shiloh said...

btw Althouse, every time you posted a Rasmussen or Gallup poll I chuckled er scoffed a tad ...

Whereas when Nate Silver saw the skewed Gallup, Willard 52/45, poll he probably wondered who was payin' these fools for their continuous inefficiency!

My observation of the entire scene tells me Romney will have a decisive win.

Much like your pro Willard threads right up to the time Romney got his butt kicked!

>

Re: Gallup/Ras one could say political malpractice for getting cons hope up lol.

Again, Happy Thanksgiving!

Astro said...

I see Ryan and Paul and a bunch of people who shouldn't bother wasting any time or money.
One face is missing: Bill Whittle. I say we start a 'draft Bill Whittle' campaign. (If he's eligible; I think he said he was born outside the US.)

Ali Karim Bey said...

EVERY-ONE HERE on ALTHOUSE.

PLEASE GIVE YOURSELF A BREAK.

- You think of Rubio, you will have a political orgasm.
- You think of Christie, you will have a political orgasm.
- You think of Jindal. Ditto.
- You think of

FoRGet it.

Instead focus on what they CAN DO this year (2013).

No one can defeat the democrats with just political orgasms.

You need accomplishments.
You need excitement from every sector of our society - scientists, women/minorities, journalists, etc.

Right now, NO ONE CARES about the GOP.

NO one. NOT even I.