October 17, 2012

"Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada."

Jim Geraghty explains.

Is Obama giving up on North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida?

76 comments:

virgil xenophon said...

Danger! Landslide area..

Seeing Red said...

One of the polling outfits gave up on FL & NC last week.

Vodkapundit has a post that DWS' challenger outraised her the past 2quarters. She might be able to knock the DNC mouth out of office.

bagoh20 said...

I can't help it, I have to repeat:

Gallup Tracking 10/10 - 10/16 2700 LV 51/45 Romney +6

Up 2 points overnight. Yep, Obama won that sucker. He's back!

creeley23 said...

If you were on the Obama campaign, and you had to pick one moment to focus upon in last night’s debate, which one would you choose? ...

For some reason, the Obama campaign and their lefty allies have selected . . . "binders full of women."


This is what's happening. Obama is losing and if you aren't looking at states, you are looking at women.

Women voted 57% for Obama in 2008 while men split 50/50. Women elected Obama, and now they are drifting away.

The majority of men are voting against Obama now, and if Obama can't make it up with women, he loses. And that looks dicey. Gallup here.

Seeing Red said...

I think it was Vodkapundit who said Goldman Sachs is donating more money to Romney than Barry.

Wargaming still has NH red.

harrogate said...

Very depressing to me, I admit candidly.

McTriumph said...

CASCADE! 10....9...8....7...6....5...4...3....2....1

Chip S. said...

Be of good cheer, harrogate. Romney will do a fine job.

harrogate said...

Chip S.: for some people, yes.

Alex said...

harrogate said...
Very depressing to me, I admit candidly.


TROLOLOLOL. Your bitter tears are my elixir!

harrogate said...

Well Alex, I would expect as much. But I said a long time ago I thought Romney would win. Months ago. So it's not like this sudden revelation.

rhhardin said...

I'm in Ohio and don't recall hearing or seeing a single Obama or Romney ad.

I don't have a TV so that's unsampled; but I do hear about constant visits to the state in the news for both camps.

The yard signs are around a dozen for Romney vs one for Obama, along the bike commute.

EDH said...

Obama, as the Black Knight?

Chip S. said...

harrogate, don't put too much faith in the O-spin.

I predict a torrent of new business investment and hiring after the worst regulatory rules of the past 3 years have been countermanded.

Pogo said...

Isn't there anyone else to throw under the goddamned bus?

Patrick said...

That certainly narrows the President's path.

And harrogate, look on the bright side. In four years, you can demand that Romney defend his record. God knows I will.

bagoh20 said...

As of a week ago, this poll (WashTimes/JZ Analytics) went from Obama +9 to a tie in one week. That was last week.

Chuck66 said...

You have to wonder.......if Hillary would have won in 2008, would we be looking at a Democrat when this November?

Chuck66 said...

Patrick....in 4 years from now, the Republicans will be demanding Romney defend his record.

The good news is.....I think Romney will be good enough on most issues. I just hope he isn't another "compassonate conservative". We had enough of that with Bush 43 (and I say this as a Bush fan).

Lem said...

I'm calling Bullshit on this story..

Obama is just trying to deceive the Romney campaign.

mccullough said...

Sounds like disinformation, just like when Romney's campaign leaked that they were giving up on Michigan and Pennsylvania. There's three weeks and both sides have plenty of cash.

mccullough said...

Sounds like disinformation, just like when Romney's campaign leaked that they were giving up on Michigan and Pennsylvania. There's three weeks and both sides have plenty of cash.

bagoh20 said...

Well Harrogate, at least we'll get an active inquisitive press again.

Chuck66 said...

Bago....yeah. Whatever happend to "illegal warrentless domestic spying". Or all the Gitmo stories. Or endless stories on the Presidents vacations (even if those "vacations" were the President working from his private home).

If Romney wins...those stories will reappear this spring.

Lem said...

Disinformation thats it..

pauldar said...

Romney or Mandel signs here in Butler County Ohio still out number Obama or Brown easily 40-1, it is probably a lot higher, but did not want to over guesstimate. The areas we are seeing these in is Westchester, Fairfield, Liberty Township and Mason. I thought about taking my movie camera and drive down some of the streets and post it to Youtube. Still might do that. McCain won this county by 40,000, Would not surprise me for Romney to carry it by 100,000

Chip S. said...

If Romney wins...those stories will reappear this spring.

Also on tap...the return of homelessness and the underemployment rate.

Pogo said...

Isn't there some skirt to hide behind?
Hillary? Candy?
Mo-oooooommy?

Skookum John said...

@harrogate: "Very depressing to me, I admit candidly."

Trust me buddy, in 18 months people like me will be grousing about him and people like you will be saying "What were we ever worried about?" He is no conservative.

I'm voting for him because of his financial skills and his basic decent love of America, not because I think he is going to throw me any red meat way over here on the right.

bagoh20 said...

Yes, I agree Romney is not the kind of conservative that the left should be worried about. I hope I'm wrong, but us conservative and libertarians are always disappointed just ever so slightly less when the Republican wins.

PatCA said...

"Isn't there anyone else to throw under the goddamned bus?"

Thankfully, Pogo, he didn't have enough time to get around to we the people.

edutcher said...

In NE OH, the signs are about 2 1/2 or 3 to 1 Romney with some of the Choom ones recycled from last time.

As I've said, if OH is so safe for him, why so many trips to Demo strongholds.

rhhardin said...

I'm in Ohio and don't recall hearing or seeing a single Obama or Romney ad.

Where, if you don't mind saying?

(and, if you do, it's OK)

I've seen more Barry than Romster.

I don't have a TV so that's unsampled; but I do hear about constant visits to the state in the news for both camps.

The yard signs are around a dozen for Romney vs one for Obama, along the bike commute.


That could be scary if you're garage.

Alex said...

40 state sweep for Romney?

Nathan Alexander said...

When Romney is defending his record in 2016, harrogate, just remember to hold him to the same low standards you have been holding Obama this time.

Chuck66 said...

Nathon Alexander...in 2016, Romney can just blame GW Bush and Hillary Clinton for everything that goes wrong.

mccullough said...

Speaking of Ohio, what's up with Joe the Plumber these days?

Icepick said...

Isn't there anyone else to throw under the goddamned bus?

How about the American electorate for electing him in the first place? "Hey, if you people hadn't had such awful judgement, I wouldn't be fucking up the place today...."

edutcher said...

PA is O +4, but with a skew of D +8.

Don't trust that one.

Shouting Thomas said...

I will vote for Romney, but I won't take any pleasure in Prez Obama's defeat.

I wanted Obama to succeed. It is just a sad reality that he did not.

Lem said...

Thank god Candy is not a fly in the wall.

Lem said...

on the wall.. fly on the wall.. the firewall.

Kurt said...

Since my state is on Obama's revised "firewall" list, I guess that means I need to put in some hours over the next few weeks volunteering for the Romney campaign here!

Chuck66 said...

Shout T....as many have said, Obama is an Affirmative Action President.

My prediction....the next African American President will be a decendant of Jim Crow America, and probably of slavery, but will win based on his/her qualifications. Not the novelty of voting for someone with dark skin.

Either that or it will be someone like Indian-American Bobby Jindel.

creeley23 said...

Obama has lost Scott Adams of "Dilbert" fame.

http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/firing_offense/

It's over. As Dilbert goes, so goes the nation. Or something like that.

angie h said...

Ohio isn't Obama's firewall. It's his Maginot Line.

bagoh20 said...

California's 55 electoral votes are in play!


Just kidding - we're retarded.

Gahrie said...

Like I've been saying....


Romney beats Obama at least as badly as Obama beat McCain.

Republicans increase their majority in the House, and take the Senate.

Even Aiken wins.

bagoh20 said...

I did not want Obama to succeed, because I know his ideology and policy is toxic, even if it would have happened to temporarily turn things around, which such policies do sometimes when conditions are just right to allow it. But, it is always temporary, based on unsustainable ideas and false logic.

I would have loved the first African American to be a successful President, but only if it was through the more important power of good policy and respect for liberty and self- sufficiency.

As far as race goes, I would also have preferred he be 100% descended from American slaves. If you need to think in racial terms, it seems less than ideal to be only half black and of no relation to the central historic issue of race in this country. Even more disappointing is for him to be possibly descended from those Africans who sold their people into slavery in the first place.

It was cool that he was from a Muslim background and had the name to match, at such a time in our history. I was proud of our tolerance in that regard.

I know Obama had no control over his heritage, and has nothing to be ashamed of from it, so I don't blame him for these things, I just wish we had waited for a better symbol.

Tim said...

The map gets smaller.

How soon until we see another "Hitler Learns..." parody on YouTube?

bagoh20 said...

Hitler learns women like guys with binders.

furious_a said...

...4 years from now, the Republicans will be demanding Romney defend his record.

That's a problem I'd like to have. You go to the polls with the Republicam you've got.

furious_a said...

Ohio isn't Obama's firewall. It's his Maginot Line.


Hopefully it'll be his Dien Bien Phu.

bagoh20 said...

In the last 3 weeks Pew Research went from Obama +8 to Romney +4. WTF?

Tim said...

bagoh20 said...

"In the last 3 weeks Pew Research went from Obama +8 to Romney +4. WTF?"

Preference cascade.

Obama has been underwater (<50%) for 19 months now. No incumbent president polling less than 50% support has won reelection.

Americans want to fire him, like they did with Carter.

But they needed to make sure his replacement didn't scare them.

He didn't, and he hasn't.

Anyway, the best part of Romney Administration is, no one who votes for him expects magic or new federal bennies.

Just straighten up some of the inherited messes, dial back or kill Obamacare, reduce discretionary spending, implement reforms for the tax codes, dial back job-killing regulations, begin the heavy lifting on social welfare entitlement reform, slow the military draw-down, make it rational.

campy said...

Obama will be fine. Fraud will save Him.

edutcher said...

bagoh20 said...

California's 55 electoral votes are in play!


Just kidding - we're retarded.


I've seen a couple of polls putting either WA or OR in play.

YMMV, but I think all those predictions of 40 states aren't going to be as far off as some would like to think.

Tim said...

The map gets smaller.

How soon until we see another "Hitler Learns..." parody on YouTube?


Can't wait for the Nov 7 one.

furious_a said...

Ohio isn't Obama's firewall. It's his Maginot Line.

Hopefully it'll be his Dien Bien Phu.


I'm going for Isandlwana, myself.

sane_voter said...

After Romney wins, the Coffee Party might have some legs . . . .NOT

sane_voter said...

But I am sure that Occupy WS will smear some more turds on cop cars

Rusty said...

campy said...
Obama will be fine. Fraud will save Him.

Ezacly what I was thinkin'.

When the voting gets close, democrats create voters.
It's the Chicago way!
By sundown on Tuesday November 6 everybody living on Lower Whacker Drive will have a new five dollar bill, a bag of hamburgers, and half a bottle of booze.

Jay said...

Is Obama giving up on North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida?

Yes, and Colorado too.

Jay said...

Sounds like disinformation, just like when Romney's campaign leaked that they were giving up on Michigan and Pennsylvania

Really?

You have a link for that?

Jay said...

@chucktodd Yesterday:

Obama campaign added MN to their radio buy. Today, campaign announces Jill Biden will campaign there this wk

Minnesota folks.

Obama is defending Minnesota.

Matthew Sablan said...

I would be shocked to see Va. go for either candidate decisively.

Matthew Sablan said...

"Chip S.: for some people, yes."

-- The question is: Will it be for more people than the current president? All trends point to yes.

Patrick said...

Wish I was as confident as some of you. I still think it's coming down to a very close Ohio race. R has other ways, but if Ohio doesn't happen, I don't think the others will. Of course I feel much better now than I did 3 weeks ago...

Nathan Alexander said...

In deep-blue Fairfax County, one of the 3 richest counties in the US, Romney signs outnumber Obama signs about about 6 to 1 (by my unscientific count).

Bumper stickers on the cars the work parking lot (most of which come from extremely blue MD) are running about 3-2 for Obama...but if you ignore the 2008 stickers, about 3-2 for Romney.

Obama's campaign is alive only due to smoke and mirrors. People will be shocked at the landslide Romney's going to get.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

edutcher,


I've seen a couple of polls putting either WA or OR in play.


I'm in OR and have not seen or heard advertising from either Presidential candidate. But Rob McKenna (WA Republican gubernatorial candidate) seems to be spending ad-buy money like water. (Our local news is run out of Portland, and probably has as many WA viewers as OR.)

Joe Schmoe said...

If Romney wins...those stories will reappear this spring.

Also on tap...the return of homelessness and the underemployment rate.


And the scourge that is $4 gas.

damikesc said...

Shrinking one's firewall is not often a sign of success.

Big Mike said...

Obama's final firewall will be Illinois, New York, California, Maryland, and Vermont.

And if the Democrats were forced to run an honest election in Cook County, he'd lose Illinois, too.

I agree with Nathan; this election is going to be a repudiation not merely of a person but of an entire party's core ideology.

TosaGuy said...

"Obama campaign added MN to their radio buy. Today, campaign announces Jill Biden will campaign there this wk

Minnesota folks.

Obama is defending Minnesota."

As a MN native I wish I could say this is true, but in reality it is Obama reaching into western Wisconsin, which is in the Twin Cities and Duluth media markets.

The WI area west of the TC did vote for Walker in June.

Ctmom4 said...

Before the playoffs, I was seeing Obama adds every other inning or so during baseball games here in Connecticut. I kept wondering why he was advertising here - CT is probably a lock, NY will certainly be a landslide for O. Maybe they are worried about New Jersey, where he is only up 8% in recent polls? Curious.

In my town, which voted for Obama in 2008, after twice voting for Bush, Romney signs outnumber Obama signs about three to one, by my unscientific estimate.

NitneLiun said...

The internals told Obama two weeks ago that Virginia, North Carolina and Florida were lost.

Some pollsters aren't even bothering to poll those states anymore because they are clearly going R.

Crunchy Frog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Crunchy Frog said...

PA is O +4, but with a skew of D +8.

Don't trust that one.


Obama saying he wanted to resurrect the assault weapons ban probably lost him PA for good. Once you get outside the Philadelphia city limits, it's gun country.

Here in sunny SoCal, there are still a few Obama bumper stickers, but nowhere near the amount there were four years ago. Haven't seen a bunch of Romney ones either, but that's because nobody wants his car keyed.

Crunchy Frog said...

The WI area west of the TC did vote for Walker in June.

So did the WI area to the east.