September 7, 2012

"The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, down from 141,000 in July, the Labor Department said today."

A breaking news email from CNN:
The report is well below forecast and another sign of a fragile economic recovery. Economists polled by CNNMoney were expecting 120,000 jobs to be added.

Economists say at least 150,000 jobs must be created each month simply to keep pace with the growing population.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3%.
How does the unemployment rate fall when you're only getting 64% of the new jobs you need to keep up with the growing population?
  
pollcode.com free polls 

212 comments:

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Michael said...

Garage: You need to raise property taxes in Madison, dude. I mean really whack em. For the children. No reason not to double them or more until you can right all the wrongs.

Michael said...

Garage: You didn't read the article you linked past the headline.

Peter said...

Any change of less than 100K in from one month to the next, in either direction, is statistical noise.

Eric said...

Any change of less than 100K in from one month to the next, in either direction, is statistical noise.

The problem is the birth/death model the BLS uses tends to understate shifts in either direction, so unless things follow recent trend lines we won't get real numbers for another quarter or two.

garage mahal said...

Garage: You need to raise property taxes in Madison, dude

Small guv, local control conservative Scott Walker put caps on what the locals can raise.

B said...

Garage,

That does not answer the question of when the contracts were signed and whether the districts leveraged the changes in requiring the WEA health care provider and collective bargaining. Some did and the claim is that it helped.

What was the projected deficit for your school district? Were they one of the districts that allowed themselves to be locked into new contracts negotiated and signed in the interim between the new laws passage and implementation?

I do understand and appreciate the fact that not all districts were fiscally healthy leading up to the changes. I also understand and appreciate the fact that it will take more time for changes to take effect for the less fiscally healthy districts. However, a tool is now available that if utilized will help. Is it being used?

Whether a district is fiscally strapped right now does not address whether it is less so than before the tools were available and is heading in the right direction, or whether the tools have not helped, or whether the tools were ignored.

Lastly, the fact that a county is conservative or liberal leaning does not correlate to whether the associated school district administration(s) are/is.

The point I am making is that you should be clear about the provenance of your data. In the context of the discussion you made a statement referencing your school districts deficit as some sort of proof that conservatives are stone dumb. Once again, that is meaningless without knowing whether conservative initiatives were utilized. Because if they were available at the time and not utilized, and at least districts that did now have improved fiscal positions, then the dumbness is the liberal resistance to their use.

test said...

Eric said...
The problem is the birth/death model the BLS uses tends to understate shifts in either direction, so unless things follow recent trend lines we won't get real numbers for another quarter or two.


The relevant figures aren't birth and death, they're graduation and retirement (plus net immigration). So there's a slightly different age bracketon the income side.

The real issue is that older people can defer retirement if desired, and many choose to do so when the future looks uncertain. So when the demand for labor drops we often see supply increase.

Calypso Facto said...

Obama should have pulled a sCOTT Walker and released a Kremlin style jobs report.

garage, I warned you at the time not to trust that preliminary BLS jobs report. 3 weeks after the recall election, BLS favorably revised their projected numbers that you were carping about by more than 50%, adding 17,000 jobs. Walker was right.

garage mahal said...

Were they one of the districts that allowed themselves to be locked into new contracts negotiated and signed in the interim between the new laws passage and implementation?


I poked around for that data as I am curious as well. My understanding is that it is a small number.

Obviously districts will save money from Act 10, but they also received giant cuts, I know our district was cut more than what was saved. Wisconsin was #1 in the nation in K-12 cuts.

B said...

One of the core concepts in Walker's position on collective bargaining etc a year or more ago was that the state's dire fiscal outlook would require reduction is aid to local school districts.

His position as I recall was that the reduction in money from the state cherry sheet would be compensated for by reductions in school budgets if they leveraged the new laws.

You're saying that in your district they did not but in other districts they were. Why the difference.

Some districts not only compensated for less state financial support but also have better than projected fiscal health leveraging the new laws. being on the other side of that coin would logically seem to be related more to the district's policies and actions, or as you said above some other district unique factor, rather than conservatives (or conservative policy) being stone dumb.

Calypso Facto said...

Wisconsin was #1 in the nation in K-12 cuts

Plummeting all the way down, on a per student basis, to the level of that academic Hell hole ... Minnesota.

Wisconsin is also one of the states with the highest "state funded" portion of school budgets, so of course any action taken is likely to be among THE BIGGEST moves in the country. It's one reason more control and funding should revert to local level.

I know Monona faced some big cuts. Still it didn't seem all that drastic:
There’s more – mostly support staff and specialty type positions.

There are no proposals to cut teachers, but at GD the teachers will be taking on more classes.

There are no items involving increasing class sizes (I think a lot of that was done last year).
link.

MarkD said...

In other government statistics, inflation is negligible. If all you buy is consumer electronics, it is negative. For those of us who eat, or use energy, the story is different.

There is nothing professional liars from the government won't say. The employment rate - the number of people working divided by the population - is as low as they have ever measured.

Blame Bush and vote for four more years of the same thing if you like. There is no recovery and this president is hopeless.

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