September 19, 2012

Like last month, it's 50% to 41% in the Marquette poll for the Wisconsin Senate race.

But the candidates names are reversed, and now Tammy Baldwin is leading Tommy Thompson.

What happened? I thought Tammy had no hope. Now, it seems Tommy has no hope. What's happening?!

How can an 18-point shift occur in one month?

Marquette also has Obama way up over Romney: 54%/40%.

(These are likely voter numbers.)

146 comments:

AllieOop said...

Polar shift.

EMD said...

Some people cling bitterly to polls.

I'm not one of them, and I promise to never use a poll to support any point I intend to make.

Andy R. said...

This poll is probably an outlier. On the other hand, maybe people turned against Thompson because of the gay-baiting from his campaign.

Anti-gay bigotry usually has to be more subtle than that.

edutcher said...

Skew should be R +1.

It's D +5 here.

Do the math.

antiphone said...

I dunno, what does invisible Bob Dylan say?

Bryan C said...

Polling is simple. You just keeping inventing more Democrats until the numbers come out right.

chickelit said...

Wisconsin Dems should relax--they've won back the state.

carrie said...

Tammy has been hammering away with the negative ads and Tommy hasn't. In fact, Tommy has substantially fewer ads (negative or positive) than Tammy. Money wins! The same with Romney. There haven't been many Romney ads in Wisconsin.

Shouting Thomas said...

Andy whines about his imagined butt hurt again.

carrie said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
chickelit said...

We should defer to garage mahal's better judgement--he calls all the Wisconsin races.

Beta Rube said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
damikesc said...

An 18 point swing? Doesn't pass the smell test

carrie said...

My very liberal husband thinks that Wisconsin isn't even a battleground state anymore, which is why Romney hasn't been advertising much here.

Ann Althouse said...

"My very liberal husband thinks that Wisconsin isn't even a battleground state anymore..."

But which way is it not a battleground state?

garage mahal said...

chickelit is having a sadz :(

Unknown said...

Somewhere Dandy Don Meredith is singing,

"Douse the lights. The party's over.
They say that all good things must end."

AJ Lynch said...

In that same Quinnipiac/ CBS/NYT poll, they used a WISCONSIN sample of D 35 and R 27 and the Senate race was tied 47-47 so I guess Marquette just used even more Dems for their poll which shows this huge Dem lead.

Almost Ali said...

My own internal poll has Obama at 92.7% - but you [also] know what that's worth.

Kit said...

They got the Walker recall right.

chickelit said...

Shouting Thomas said...
Andy whines about his imagined butt hurt again.

Andy suffers from peristaltic closure.


chickelit said...

garage mahal said...
chickelit is having a sadz :(



Hey, I was giving you the floor.

EMD said...

They got the Walker recall right.

They had Barrett up 1 in April!

EMD said...

My own internal Pole has a hankering for kielbasa!

AJ Lynch said...

Drilling down into these poll selections and seeing how these big media orgs skew their samples makes me think Romney is winning big.

AJ Lynch said...

My external pole has a hankering for well I can't really say in polite company.

edutcher said...

You and me both, AJ.

Also, note only 15% I.

That's gotta be wrong.

PfMoen said...

must have found those missing 300,000 democrat voters in Milwaukee

Bob Ellison said...

It's very interesting! And with the economy in the toilet, unemployment the worst it's been since the Great Depression, and foreign affairs apparently going off like a lit match in a fireworks factory, why would the polls suddenly show a liberal strongly ahead?

Polling, after all, is a science.

bagoh20 said...

Wisconsin is funny.

traditionalguy said...

Either Garage has found a way to rig the polls, or the Ryan plan to restrain entitlements is the poison pill that the Dems say it is.

Romney had better send Ann Romney out to campaign for him again since he is unwilling to leave his planned comfort zone and do it himself.

Shouting Thomas said...

So, Andy, if we make fun of lezzies, are they going to commit arson, pillage and murder?

Kit said...

They had Barrett up 1 in April!

When it mattered.

PfMoen said...

must have found those missing 300,000 democrat voters in Milwaukee

BarrySanders20 said...

Funny poll. It will provide giddiness for liberals and much fodder for the press (who are in that first group, too).

There is no way that Tommy is behind, much less by nine, among all Eaters of the Cheese. Even against these allegedly steep odds, DOWN NINE!, I will take bets right now that Tommy wins this race.

Triangle Man said...

That is an incredible shift, and by incredible I mean not credible. Nate Silver has Baldwin at 40% chances to win on a 49.3% vote share. So, more or less, too close to call.

Bender said...

People are NOT excited by boring old dinosaurs.

They might look with curiosity at dinosaur bones at the museum, but then they go home.

Then they see these folks who have been around since the Jurassic Age, who have interjected themselves into people's lives since forever, and their response to them is GO AWAY, please just finally leave me alone and go live your own life without involving me in it. Find an existence that does not involve lording it over other please. GO. AWAY.

Especially if they are boring and dull and really do not stand for anything except, "elect me and let me govern you because I don't know how to do anything else except be a busy-body in other people's lives."

And a lot of that is Romney's problem too.

AprilApple said...

If the polls are accurate, WI voters must like this recession.
Hang on, it's going to get much worse.

tiger said...

This was a review of the internals:
Over-sampling Dems to Reps 50% to 35% will give you those kind of skewed, outlier numbers.

AprilApple said...

There isn't a bigger "busy-body" regime than Pelosi/Reid/Obama busy-bee-ing over our lives.

Triangle Man said...

The latest (9/19) New York Times / Quinnipiac poll has TT and Baldwin in a dead heat at 47% and 47%. That is a shift from 50% for TT and 42% for Baldwin on August 23rd. The 9/16 PPP poll has TT at 45% and Baldwin at 48%. So, maybe things have indeed shifted for Tammy. Still a very close race.

David said...

Somethings wrong.

But they have no idea what or how to fix it.

Sounds like government.

TWM said...

Andy R, I hate to break it to you but it's just not all about the gheys anymore. Not even for the Dems. First comes abortion, then bashing Romney. There's little room left in their platform.

David R. Graham said...

"Depression, and foreign affairs apparently going off like a lit match in a fireworks factory, why would the polls suddenly show a liberal strongly ahead?"

Two reasons appeal.

One, there is a tactic when wanting your way and things are bad to make them far, far worse so that any thoughts of successfully opposing your way seem impossible and the opposer folds. Masochism.

Two, so many people want others to be hurt and unhappy that a cascade preference starts in the direction of increasing hurt and unhappiness among the generality. Sadism.

Moral: never think individuals or groups, especially when heavily marketed, are rational, self-interested or self-correcting. Intellectual and moral health are always rare and when the political class, aka society's leadership cadre, is a stranger to those qualities of character the situation is desperate and therefore pre-violent. Such conditions favor thuggery, not care.

Dante said...

Rasmussen has Romney up 48 to 47% over BO.

David said...

Maybe when Wisconsin got to see Tammy dancing with Wonder Woman, everyone got the hots for her. The lady can actually dance, in a white girl sort of way.

EMD said...

I would like to see a poll asking Wisconsinites to choose between Tammy Thompson and Tommy Baldwin and see what happens.

Calypso Facto said...

That is an incredible shift, and by incredible I mean not credible.

Agreed. Betting on Tammy to win would be risky. But betting on Tammy and giving 9 points would be asinine to anyone who has paid any attention to Wisconsin politics over the last couple years.

shiloh said...

So let's recap, shall we:

Althouse ~ Obama is an extremely talented campaigner. Tammy is not. 3/18

Ras ~ 50/38 Tommy 5/11

Althouse ~ Rasmussen says it's 52% to 36%. Ouch. 6/14

Althouse ~ Tommy is (11) pts. ahead.

Tommy has coattails!

Mitt Romney might win the presidency riding on Tommy's coattails.

It's all about Wisconsin, baby. 8/17

>

Wally Kalbacken said...

Tommy T is going to roll it up by at least 15 points.


Not to pick on Wally, but his stood out going down Althouse memory lane.

>

A few pts. very few ...

Remember when Walker was winning the recall, but polls still showed Obama (8) pts. ahead in WI.

Exit polls indicated WI voters were in favor of unions, but not in favor of the recall process.

Tommy appears to be another Martha Coakley ie he will not engage ie he doesn't like to campaign.

Sometimes it's true, you can't come home again.

Tammy ~ Tammy ~ Tammy

As always, stay tuned and don't give up hope cons as Tommy may come out of hibernation at any time ...

furious_a said...

The Marquette pollsters weighted their sample based on Marquette students.

Henry said...

How can an 18-point shift occur in one month?

Enunciation.

Sorun said...

I've only seen Baldwin ads on TV. Apparently Thompson is some old, creepy, greedy DC insider.

All I know about Baldwin is that she's some woman who thinks Thompson is creepy and greedy.

AJ Lynch said...

Triangle Man- that is the same poll I said used 35 Dems for every 27 Repubs so I kinda doubt it is worth much.

AprilApple said...

Furious a...
If we could stop vote fraud, democrats would not stand a chance.
That's why dems are so against ensuring one person/one vote.

Alex said...

AllieOop said...
Polar shift.


Agreed. Romney is going to lead the GOP to a huge wipeout like in 2008.

David said...

It's a Death Panel.

Tommy is 76 years old, forchrissakes. Just die you old buzzard.

shiloh said...

btw, if anyone has coattails in WI I would bet on Obama over can't get out of his own way, Willard.

And Ryan is turning out to be a negative in WI. Shocking!

Alex said...

David - you sound hysterical like Rush this morning.

Alex said...

shiloh - Ryan is even running ads for his own House race now, where he's won by 30+ points the last several times. Can you imagine if he goes down there too? You will be orgasming non-stop for a month.

bagoh20 said...

If I was a leftist, I think I'd want a Romney win here. Since Romney is not a fire breathing reformer, even if he manages to fix things a little, Obama will still get some of the credit. If Obama wins, he won't fix anything, and the left will get all the blame for that.

So I'm torn: A little fix now or a big fix later.

It would be strange to say I voted for Obama to destroy him, but knowing his abilities, it actually makes sense.

Unfortunately for you lefties, he'll take you with him, so really this election is a loss for you either way. We all know Obama isn't going to fix things, but you guys just don't care. Enjoy the ride.

edutcher said...

As always, the little animal takes comfort in old polls.

The older the better.

********We're winning! Really!******

Althouse fetish seal train wreck

lol lol lol lol

(tell me again about my vocabulary)

:J ;A @B

shiloh said...

"You will be orgasming non-stop for a month."

No, but I was quite happy in 2006 and 2008. Again, having voted for McGovern at an early age I understand the disappointment er yin and yang of politics.

Willard rolling out his v-p pick on the museum ship, USS Wisconsin, also made me smile to see two clueless chicken hawks aboard a US battleship. Perfect!

Indeed, as the Rep hierarchy are now quite worried how imploding Willard will affect the down ballot ticket.

ND, IN and even the AZ senate race may now be competitive! What a tangled web Willard weaves.

roesch/voltaire said...

More and more folks realized they liked the old Tommy who could work with Democrats better then the new Tea Party Tommy who represents big pharma. Further the other old millionaire, Ron Johnson, so far has not done much for Wisconsin, so more folks are thinking why not give a younger women the floor and maybe get some balance back in the state.

Alex said...

shiloh - so you're at least 58 years old and you act like a juvenile.

garage mahal said...

Unfortunately for you lefties, he'll take you with him, so really this election is a loss for you either way.

Nah, I think we'll survive. 2-3 Supremes will come out of the deal. But thanks for the concern though!

Alex said...

rv - how is electing a Communist giving balance?

David said...

Alex! Once again proving that lefties have no sense of humor at all. It was a joke, Alex, not a real funny one, but a joke.

Alex said...

Nah, I think we'll survive. 2-3 Supremes will come out of the deal. But thanks for the concern though!

Scalia just needs to hold on for 4 years. The rest of the conservatives are fine.

David said...

Or righties, Alex. You can never tell with Alex.

Rick Caird said...

With leaners, it is not D +5. That is Gallup. Weighted, the poll is D +11. Why wold anyone even pblish a poll that was so skewed?

Civil Sense said...

From what I can tell, the poll in September has a split of 25.6%R, 34%D and 37.7%I. The poll in August had a split of 26.3%R, 28.4%D and 41.5%I.

Based on my math, adjusting to the August partisan split, Thompson would lead Baldwin 52.6% to 37.2%.

The only question is what will turnout actually be? Turn in Nov. 7 to find out.

roesch/voltaire said...

Alex, bless his heart, is so quick on the pejorative labels that little effect on the majority of Wisconsin voters.

harrogate said...

Some of these polls are fine and even useful--sometimes even oversampling can be useful, if,that is, the purpose is to learn or examine specific things--but it's the ones like this poll that just make you want to lament for the ridiculousness of it all. No way Obama has a commanding lead in a state that has been trending so strongly to the right of center, supporting Walker, for this sustained period of time.

In my heart of hearts I believe that Romney will win Wisconsin and also the general election. This terrifies me, and I think it a terribly unjust outcome. But it is what I think will happen.

t-man said...

Why don't you guys trust this poll? The sample was huge! -- everyone in Dane County and the City of Milwaukee.

chickelit said...

AllieOop said...
Polar shift.

The Germans call it Umpolung.

Kelvan Kringle said...

"made me smile to see two clueless chicken hawks aboard a US battleship. Perfect!"

What branch of the military did you serve in Shiloh?

Issob Morocco said...

Likely Democratic voters more like it.

DADvocate said...

Sounds like a sampling error in at least one of the surveys, maybe both.

SteveR said...

That kind of shift over that amount of time means bad sampling. There's no historical basis to believe it nor any event (e.g. pictures involving ducks)to explain it. More than likely both are wrong.

Chip Ahoy said...

I shall draw a little face on my external pole and ask it what it thinks.

Dot dot, there. That thing'll be the mouth.

"What do you think?"

"peep peep pee pee peep peep peeeee pepepppepeeee peep peep."

There you go, not much.

shiloh said...

"What branch of the military did you serve in Shiloh?"

USN

Our '85/'86 Med cruise was quite memorable.

btw, Dutch er Reagan never scoffed at/discounted the 47% ...

Anchors Aweigh!

bagoh20 said...

" 2-3 Supremes will come out of the deal."

Such high expectations for your man. Like I said, you only care about winning.

There simply is no way for you to win in the long run, unless you celebrate and leave the country. But, even that won't work, because leftist/collectivist ideas are running every modern nation into the ground. You really are lost out there, on a high speed train to reality. Your only real option is to become a Wingnut. You know you want it. It comes with real bootstraps, not the government issue ones that are tied together. Come on in - we're cleaning out the tent to make room for the disillusioned crowd right behind you.

garage mahal said...

So apparently there is a vast conspiracy between dozens of pollsters to oversample Dems? That's the current line of thinking why Republicans are taking in water?

:-)

ndspinelli said...

Andy, The Gay mafia is trying to defeat a gay Republican running for mayor of San Diego and they're gay baiting. Irony, don't you think? Like feminism is not about women but about liberals, apparently gay politics has devolved into that also. Give me an intellectually honest answer, not your schtick.

chickelit said...

bagoh20 offered garage: Your only real option is to become a Wingnut. You know you want it. It comes with real bootstraps, not the government issue ones that are tied together. Come on in - we're cleaning out the tent to make room for the disillusioned crowd right behind you.

Come on, garage...you want to wind up stuck in a pup tent face-to-face with Allie or Andy, do you?

chickelit said...

or bunking with Shilho?

AprilApple said...

Harry Reid's corruption. $$$

machine said...

PEW: Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.

Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival’s, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney’s backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama’s. Roughly half of Romney’s supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, candidates lacking mostly positive backing have lost in November.

Andy R. said...


Andy, The Gay mafia is trying to defeat a gay Republican running for mayor of San Diego and they're gay baiting. Irony, don't you think? Like feminism is not about women but about liberals, apparently gay politics has devolved into that also. Give me an intellectually honest answer, not your schtick.

I haven't been following the SD mayor's race. Is this what you are referring to? Or something else? I want to make sure I know what you are talking about before I respond.

DADvocate said...

vast conspiracy between dozens of pollsters to oversample Dems?

I'm not saying any such thing. Working in marketing research, launched 4 surveys today, I know how easy it is to make sampling errors and other typed of errors. To get such discrepancy, you only need to make the error once. One survey's good, one's bad (maybe). But, which is which.

ndspinelli said...

Yes, Andy. I like DeMaio and if I was eligible would vote for him. I believe it's myopic to have a litmus test for gay candidates, as I do for black, Hispanic, female, etc. pols. I'm guessing you disagree.

Andy R. said...

What do you mean by litmus test? Are you asking if I would automatically support a candidate because they are gay?

Based on that article it doesn't sound like I would support DeMaio, but that's not surprising since I'm a Democrat and he sounds like a generic Republican on most issues, aside from his support for gay marriage.

Politicians spouses come up in political campaigns, and the mentions described in the article sound like standard political tussling. I do think a gay politician accepting (inviting?) support from Prop 8 backers is a little sad.

carrie said...

My husband and all of his very liberal friends think Wisconsin isn't a battleground state for the presidential election. He and his friends think that Obama is so far ahead that the Romney doesn't have a prayer of winning Wisconsin. I think that even my very liberal husband will be surprised that Tammy has such a big lead because he didn't think that Tammy was electable in a statewide election.

garage mahal said...

Come on, garage...you want to wind up stuck in a pup tent face-to-face with Allie or Andy, do you?

I want to wake up face to face in a pup tent with Krystal Ball.

ndspinelli said...

Andy, I meant a litmus test on things like taking $ from people who don't abide gay marriage. The Dem is a very bland run of the mill candidate. DeMaio is a smart, dynamic guy who had a horrible childhood and overcame it. A compelling story.

ndspinelli said...

garage, Are you blind or stupid. You picked the wrong woman from that show. SE Cupp is the hottest woman on tv..smart, tough, and funny. Krystal Ball is a mousey bitch.

Titus said...

I don't understand how Walker won the last election and now the democrats are up?

It doesn't make any sense.

If Tammy Baldwin wins I will turn straight.

tits.

Sloanasaurus said...

I am sure people abov have thrown out these stats about the poll, but I will do it again just in case.

Poll sampled 51% D, and 40%R. We just had a recall election that I have heard was +1 R. This poll is +11D?

How can these polls be taken seriously?

Scott Walker had a negative rating, just two months after he was re-elected in a recall landslide. How is that?

The poll says 49%-42 approve of Obamacare. I don't think so.

Also, the polls ask people about their opinion on how hot the summer was and about global warming. WHy is there polling for this. That is issue is at the bottom of the list for Americans.

THere are some very bad numbers in here for Obama and thus Baldwin.

1. Even with a D+11 skew, 52% beleive the country is worse off than 4 years ago.

chickelit said...

garage mused: I want to wake up face to face in a pup tent with Krystal Ball.

M'kay. I just googled her. She has severe eyes. Is she a butterface?

Sloanasaurus said...

I believe the CBS poll had a 35D 27R poll split. Not as bad as marquette, but still pretty skewed. Not sure how they expect those partisan turnout numbers after all the recent elections we had recently.

edutcher said...

harrogate said...

Some of these polls are fine and even useful--sometimes even oversampling can be useful, if,that is, the purpose is to learn or examine specific things--but it's the ones like this poll that just make you want to lament for the ridiculousness of it all. No way Obama has a commanding lead in a state that has been trending so strongly to the right of center, supporting Walker, for this sustained period of time.

Sounds like someone trying to reconcile himself to something.

shiloh said...

Willard rolling out his v-p pick on the museum ship, USS Wisconsin, also made me smile to see two clueless chicken hawks aboard a US battleship. Perfect!

Recite for us all the naval battles in which you've participated.

What branch of the military did you serve in Shiloh?

USN


Might want to run that past Fen.

Especially in light of all the lies in which he's been caught.

BTW, what does the little animal think of his Messiah unable to put an exact figure to the national debt?

Now that's a train wreck!

Or should I say SCOAMF.

AllieOop said...

I'm old enough to be garage's mother, but if his dad is free.....;)

machine said...

Four Years Ago Today...Obama's lead over McCain was 1.9 percent. Today, his lead over Romney is 2.8 percent. (RCP)

yeah...Romney's killin it...

garage mahal said...

garage, Are you blind or stupid. You picked the wrong woman from that show. SE Cupp is the hottest woman on tv..smart, tough, and funny. Krystal Ball is a mousey bitch.

S.E. Cupp has no cups, my friend. You didn't notice that?

chickelit said...

Andy S. really said...
What do you mean by litmus test? Are you asking if I would automatically oppose a candidate because they opposed gay marriage?--yes

FTFY


Titus said...

Tammy Baldwin has as much of a chance of winning Wisconsin as I do of eating some big hairy pussy tonight.

I believe that the dyke Baldwin win lose by a minimum of 10 points.

If she is close, which I find hard to believe, than it's time to whip out the Wonder Woman video where she is shaking her tits next to some Drag Queen at a Fag Parade.

On a side note I was really disappointed in Kate Middleton's tits.

edutcher said...

machine said...

Four Years Ago Today...Obama's lead over McCain was 1.9 percent. Today, his lead over Romney is 2.8 percent. (RCP)

yeah...Romney's killin it...


Somebody tell the mindless automaton that 4 years ago there was a financial crash that had some effect on Republicans' electoral hopes.

Today, we've got a foreign policy in tatters.

Our credit has been downgraded - again.

We've just had the worst weekly jobs report in 2 months.

And tell the mindless one most of the vaunted RCP average the Lefties can't quote enough come from polls like

CBS - D +13

CNN - D +10

ABC - D +6.

Naw, Barry's got no problems at all.

garage mahal said...

M'kay. I just googled her. She has severe eyes. Is she a butterface?

She has really nice skin tone.

AprilApple said...

I wonder if perhaps the over-the-top pro-Obama anti/Romney media will cause a backlash?

Sloanasaurus said...

Four Years Ago Today...Obama's lead over McCain was 1.9 percent. Today, his lead over Romney is 2.8 percent. (RCP)

yeah...Romney's killin it...


Four years ago today, Rasmussen showed Obama and McCain tied 48-48.

It was the next week, where Obama finally broke out - after the Lehman Bros collapse and the onset of the financial crisis. By Sept 29, 2008, Obama was leading 50-45 and his lead never faded. The huge collapse in the stock market, and Obama's 3 to 1 money advantage in late september/early october further drove Obama's bumbers and he maintained a +5 to +7 lead to election day.


We will see if Obama can accomplish a similar break-out this time. We will know in a week. Although this time, events seem to be working against Obama rather than for him.

AJ Lynch said...

Edutcher:

Yes and when, for God's sake, will Romney bundle that Letterman clip into an ad [the clip where Obama avoids saying the debt is $16 Trillion]?

chickelit said...

AprilApple said...
I wonder if perhaps the over-the-top pro-Obama anti/Romney media will cause a backlash?

Isn't that their plan? They can't be seen helping Romney in plain sight lest they be judged racist so they are going out of their way to actually look like obvious psychophants for Obama and thus help Romney.

Smilin' Jack said...

"Like last month...."

Sigh. That should be "AS last month...."

Western civilization continues to rot.

harrogate said...

At the same time, while this poll is certainly over the top, it would not surprise me at all if some sort of Obamabump occurred as a result of Romney's kneejerk, shrill, and ignorant response to the Libya murders. Romney was after all the opposite of Presidential, in that moment.

And, to the extent that perhaps some sort of Obamabump may take place in the future, as a result of the "47%" comment: I find it entertaining the way that some people try to compare this moment with Obama's comments about "bitter clingers" in San Fran. Because not only, as Ann has pointed out, was Obama actually speaking to the importance of making policies that benefit people who are economically exploited, clingers though they be.

But also, Romney's "47%" comment actually UNDERSCORED the truth of what Obama had said in that speech. No matter how much the GOP yells Abortion [Squirrel!]! or Teh Gays [Squirrel!] or They're Takin' Our Guns [Squirrel!], they continue to piss all over poor whites in the very states that they call strongholds.

So yeah. Irony.

harrogate said...

edutcher,

Yes, I am trying to reconcile myself to my growing sense that Romney will win. That's what I was saying. Pretty plainly. In case you thought you were doing some sort of "between the lines" reading, you weren't.

Sloanasaurus said...

At the same time, while this poll is certainly over the top, it would not surprise me at all if some sort of Obamabump occurred as a result of Romney's kneejerk, shrill, and ignorant response to the Libya murders. Romney was after all the opposite of Presidential, in that moment.

The people who will possibly change their vote over Libya will not change it based on what Romney or Obama say about the matter. They will change it based on the constant news and video about people violently demonstrating against the United States in dozens of countries around the world. If you previously thought that Obama has been successful in making people like us more, that perception will change due to actual facts.

chickelit said...

If you previously thought that Obama has been successful in making people like us more, that perception will change due to actual facts.

According to the prevailing logic here (cf. Allie et allies), Obama could get the Arab world to like us more if only we'd stop inciting them. It's our stupid fault. The ham-handed attempt to subvert the Constitution failed.
Now what?

harrogate said...

"Now what?"

It's actually a very good question. My answer is that in a lot of ways Ron Paul looks better more and more, on foreign policy. People call him weak on defense. But really he's pretty constitutional about it, is all.

harrogate said...

"These riots breaking out across the Middle East are ruining the vacation plans of nobody."---Bill Maher

This true quip, is a more profound foreign policy statement, if taken to its logical conclusion, than anything I have heard Bush or Obama or Romney say, to name three.

Methadras said...

I believe this as much as I do presidential polls. Ridiculous.

Big Mike said...

My first take was that Wisconsin natives are only 40% sane.

My second take is that the US is under attack overseas and that something like that causes people naturally to rally behind the President.

But this President will blow the opportunity.

Cedarford said...

Bob Ellison said...
It's very interesting! And with the economy in the toilet, unemployment the worst it's been since the Great Depression, and foreign affairs apparently going off like a lit match in a fireworks factory, why would the polls suddenly show a liberal strongly ahead?

===================
It just might be that Republicans have underestimated the damage the Wall Street meltdown and betrayal of trust the "Doer Folk" of the 1%, as Bush fondly called them - still is on the Republican brand.

Add in that some of the ideas championed since Reagan's day have become stale -
1. Free trade is great because ot means more jobs for Americans at great salaries making things the Chinese can't!
2. Just give the richest people big tax cuts and they will invest that money in jobs.
3. Anyone who does not have a great job is lazy, failed to get a good education and have only themselves to blame....
4. Republicans are the Party of American Values.
5. Republicans are the Party that understands foreign policy and the military and will not get us into endless futile wars like Vietnam.

All that Oldtime Good Old Reagan Era dogma has taken a beating in the eyes of voters in the middle.

And Republicans are seeing demographic changes and a focus that focuses on Heartland values that add to their misery - as they have effectively lost any chance for California, Pennsylvania, any New England state, are losing ground in central rustbelt states, the Southwest...and even in the Deep South as certain states move away from considering themselves Deep South Fundie ground (Virginia, N Carolina).

Republicans best shot is to tell voters that they gave America Bush, free trade, and let the rich run amok to nearly destroy our capitalist financial system and stuck us in two wars that drained us and cost us much of our reputation and money.....
That yes, Bush & Co really fucked up!
But Obama is an ever worse fuckup and don't give him 8 years like Bush got.

ndspinelli said...

garage, If politics makes you blind to a babe, then just shoot your dick off..it's useless. Krystal Ball has bb boobs, a squeeky voice, and a horrible face. You lost ALL credibility you may have had on this. And, as any real man knows, if they have no boobs, just flip them over!

Titus said...

The name Krystal Ball sounds like a drag queen.

garage mahal said...

S.E. Cupp is cute, and she seems cool. She just isn't hawt hot like Krystal Ball. Sorry nd.

edutcher said...

harrogate said...

edutcher,

Yes, I am trying to reconcile myself to my growing sense that Romney will win. That's what I was saying. Pretty plainly. In case you thought you were doing some sort of "between the lines" reading, you weren't.


Fair enough.

There's so much denial, on all sides here, you never know who's being up front.

'K?

edutcher said...

AJ Lynch said...

Edutcher:

Yes and when, for God's sake, will Romney bundle that Letterman clip into an ad [the clip where Obama avoids saying the debt is $16 Trillion]?


It will either be him or Priebus, count on it.

harrogate said...

edutcher,

Absolutely.

garage mahal said...

harrogate is fretting of a Romney win (what?) and I'm worried Romney will quit or be forced to quit the race. Hang in there Mittens!

chickelit said...

garage mahal said...
harrogate is fretting of a Romney win (what?) and I'm worried Romney will quit or be forced to quit the race.

When two different people on the same side present that it's called "dissonant cognizance."

Tom L said...

If you poll nothing but Democrats you can get the desired result. Relax on all of these polls. They're push polls. Nationally there are only a couple of polls that are realistic. Rasmussen and Gallup. Pew and NBC News way over-samples Democrats. They're polls are meaningless. Gallup is polling registered voters nationally and have it at 1 point for Obama. When they switch to likely voters there will be a 3-5 point swing toward Romney. This race is way tighter than the media wants the public to believe. The race is close but it is nowhere near the 5-8 points in NBC and Pew.

David said...

AllieOop said...
I'm old enough to be garage's mother, but if his dad is free.....;)


No way he would charge a fellow lefty, Allie.

David said...

S.E. Cupp has those smoky eyes, Garage. And she's a little mysterious. And smart. You lefties are so sexist--all about the breasts.

AllieOop said...

Haha Dave, I meant has free time! Or was free of a wife, but free of charge would be good too.;)

Bob Ellison said...

Cedarford...

1. Free trade is great because ot means more jobs for Americans at great salaries making things the Chinese can't!

So...Chinese people shouldn't have jobs?

2. Just give the richest people big tax cuts and they will invest that money in jobs.

Did you pay attention to the last twenty years of tax changes? Because they have all tilted toward the richer paying more taxes. This was true even with the "Bush tax cuts". Weren't you paying attention?

3. Anyone who does not have a great job is lazy, failed to get a good education and have only themselves to blame....

OK, maybe. What's your argument here?

4. Republicans are the Party of American Values.

Yes!

5. Republicans are the Party that understands foreign policy and the military and will not get us into endless futile wars like Vietnam.

Well, there you're on to something. Both parties suck at picking out what to do when it comes to foreign policy.

Seeing Red said...

via vodkapundit:

robocalls in PA & CO -

Even if you didn't push the Obama button, amazing...............I wonder how that happens........

Voting Democrat? Let the machine get it. Watch the video and prepare to be amazed.

Seeing Red said...

via vodkapundit:

robocalls in PA & CO -

Even if you didn't push the Obama button, amazing...............I wonder how that happens........

Voting Democrat? Let the machine get it. Watch the video and prepare to be amazed.

Dad29 said...

Thompson's ad campaign is as exciting as overwatered oatmeal.

At least Baldwin finds good Tommy clips. Thompson apparently can't find anything Baldwin said or did in the last 20 years which is controversial.

Says more about his campaign than anything else, no?

cubanbob said...

Tom L said...

Whats weird about the polling is that as of August there were more registered republicans than democrats I wonder what a poll of likely voters weighed by the current proportion of party/independent registrations would be.

Seeing Red said...

Hmmm:

WASHINGTON — Nearly 6 million Americans — significantly more than first estimated_ will face a tax penalty under President Barack Obama's health overhaul for not getting insurance, congressional analysts said Wednesday. Most would be in the middle class.

The new estimate amounts to an inconvenient fact for the administration, a reminder of what critics see as broken promises.

The numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are 50 percent higher than a previous projection by the same office in 2010, shortly after the law passed. The earlier estimate found 4 million people would be affected in 2016, when the penalty is fully in effect.

That's still only a sliver of the population, given that more than 150 million people currently are covered by employer plans. Nonetheless, in his first campaign for the White House, Obama pledged not to raise taxes on individuals making less than $200,000 a year and couples making less than $250,000.

And the budget office analysis found that nearly 80 percent of those who'll face the penalty would be making up to or less than five times the federal poverty level. Currently that would work out to $55,850 or less for an individual and $115,250 or less for a family of four.

Average penalty: about $1,200 in 2016.....

john marzan said...

@guypbenson So Marquette poll shifts from D+1 model last month to D+11 model, and -- surprise!! -- Democrats surge massively. #Magic

Gabriel Hanna said...

Looking at the Marquette poll methodology it seems they weighted their sample to 44 R / 44 D; their raw sample was 46 R/ 42 D. They are getting their party affiliation numbers from 2011 adults, not 2008. So it's the difference between all adults and likely voters that affects the weighting here, they're not weighting from 2008.

Suppose I take at face value the charge that pollsters are largely oversampling Democrats. I do not dispute it, but I haven't looked into it myself. For now let's go with it.

What is in it for the polling organizations if they are oversampling deliberately? They'll end up looking silly when they get it badly wrong (cf. Dewey Defeats Truman, a classic case of poor sampling). It's not enough to say they're all in the tank for Obama. First you'd have to prove that, and second you'd have to figure out why supporting Obama, at the cost of their credibility as a polling organization, would be worth it to them. You can only expend your credibility one time.

But it looks like polling organizations have got lots of things wrong and are still in business. Anyway, I don't buy that they're all in cahoots to reelect Obama and are doing it deliberately. If they are really are oversampling, why are they all making the same mistake--all except Rasmussen?

It is worth seriously trying to figure this out, rather than just dismissing the polls. I do not believe they are all oversampling in the same way for the same reason, until I see evidence that they are.

TWM said...

I just read that this poll was a Dem+11 sample. Is that true? If so, Andy, garage, and shiloh are gonna be sooo surprised come election day.

Gabriel Hanna said...

@TWM:I just read that this poll was a Dem+11 sample. Is that true? If so, Andy, garage, and shiloh are gonna be sooo surprised come election day.

It's not. Do you want to be the one who is rudely surprised, or would you like to have garage et al continue their streak. Educate yourself, don't rely on others.

EMD said...

It's not. Do you want to be the one who is rudely surprised, or would you like to have garage et al continue their streak. Educate yourself, don't rely on others.

Gallup estimates in the first column are 45-40. Unweighted in the second column is 49.50-40.99. Weighted in the third column is 51.35-40.00.

I don't know where you're getting the 44-44 from.

eugeniegrandet said...

I call bullshit on that poll.