August 9, 2012

New Marquette poll: Tommy Thompson 28%, Eric Hovde 20%, Mark Neumann 18%, Jeff Fitzgerald 13%.

With 21% still undecided, the Thompson lead isn't very impressive. And Thompson has gone down since the last poll, last month, when he was at 35%. Hovde too is down. He was at 23% last month. It's Neumann who's up — 8 points from last month's 10%. And Fitzgerald is still at the bottom, but he's more than doubled his support, having been way down at 6% in July.

Although Hovde is down 3 points, the gap between him and Thompson is smaller — from 12 to 8 points.
When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean towards, the vote becomes 33 percent for Thompson, 24 percent for Hovde, 21 percent for Neumann and 15 percent for Fitzgerald. Seven percent remain undecided. The Republican primary results are based on 519 likely voters (i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in the August 14 primary).
I see 2 big questions: 1. Is non-Tommy sentiment essentially anti-Tommy? 2. If so, can the anti-Tommy people settle on one of the non-Tommys?
Among the 19 percent of likely primary voters who describe themselves as “very conservative,” there is a close-packed tie for the lead, with Hovde at 24 percent, Neumann at 22 percent, Thompson at 21 percent and Fitzgerald at 15 percent. Among those describing themselves as “conservative,” who make up 52 percent of likely primary voters, Thompson has an advantage at 27 percent to Hovde at 20 percent, Neumann at 19 percent and Fitzgerald at 13 percent. Among the 20 percent of likely voters calling themselves “moderate,” Thompson receives 34 percent to Hovde’s 18 percent, with Neumann at 14 percent and Fitzgerald at 13 percent.
It's hard to figure out how to vote strategically — assuming your goal, as a GOP primary voter, is, above all, for the Senate seat to go to the Republican. But it's an open primary, and Democrats might try to get the weakest candidate in. (But who would that be? Neumann?) Or Democrats might pick Thompson, on the theory that he's the least conservative. The Marquette pollster says that including only Republicans made little difference in the numbers — maybe because Democrats looking at Republicans split between the best loser (Neumann?) or the least-bad winner (Thompson).  

17 comments:

TosaGuy said...

"But it's an open primary, and Democrats might try to get the weakest candidate in."

Won't happen because you can't split your vote in a regular partisan primary (recalls were different), regardless if a different race.

The Dane County Dems will be picking their replacement for Tammy Baldwin's house seat.

Several contested WI assembly primaries for the Dems in Milwaukee also.

Democrats everywhere else can play games, but as June 5th proved there are not that many Dems in the rest of Wisconsin and probably even fewer who would bother to crossvote.

raf said...

Sometime, I would like to see the primary candidate down in a distant fourth place make an announcement like: "It appears that I am not going to win this race. I consider so&so to be the second-best choice and encourage my supporters to vote for him/her, as I intend to do, myself."

Not ever going to happen, of course.

Calypso Facto said...

there are not that many Dems in the rest of Wisconsin and probably even fewer who would bother to crossvote

Also, the outstate Dems I know are not big Baldwin fans and certainly not confident in her ability to win, which leads me to believe that if they did crossvote it would be for the "least-bad" Thompson, as an insurance vote.

If yard signs around the state are the measure of support, it seems to me that Hovde has the lead.

Ann Althouse said...

"The Dane County Dems will be picking their replacement for Tammy Baldwin's house seat."

Yes, that's true in Madison, but there's the rest of Wisconsin.

TosaGuy said...

"Yes, that's true in Madison, but there's the rest of Wisconsin."

Madison is where all the hard-core liberals who read the DailyKos and would engage in crossover voting live.

edutcher said...

The Demos' Neumann strategy may need some reworking.

elkh1 said...

Tommy is too old.

When Illinoians elected their gov. Tommy Thompson eons ago, a lot of them mistook him for the Tommy in Wis. Il's Tommy was one of two governors who didn't spend their retirement in the big house. That is how long ago it was. Yet Il's Tommy is not as old as the original, Wis. Tommy.

garage mahal said...

You would think of all the shit Baby Fitz had to go through to cram those Assembly bills through that the least he could get is an endorsement from Walker?

Steve Austin said...

I voted Tommy yesterday.

This is not a 2010 non Presidential year nor a 2011 Walker recall. Just because the GOP won those races doesn't mean any GOP senate candidate wins in November.

Obama likely wins this state and carries Tammy Baldwin with him. Sure Tammy is a big Madison liberal. But if you are voting for Obama, is it really any stretch to vote Tammy? They are identical candidates.

Tommy would win statewide races here with vote totals in the 60's for percentages. He is the only one of these four who can cause an independent or moderate dem Obama voter to split the ticket.

I can't worry about Tommy's imperfections or age or things six years from now. If Tammy gets that seat, she's holding onto it for decades.

For me, I can't see screwing around with all the general election flaws of Fitz, Hovde or Neumann. I don't want a repeat of the 2010 Senate races in NV, CO, CT, etc with inferior statewide candidates who lost.

Winning that seat is too crucial. This is not an off year election. Tommy can cause split tickets and win this seat even if Obama takes the State.

frank said...

Steve Austen is right. All the Hovde/Neuman supporters must have a fetish for Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader.

traditionalguy said...

Garage...It's definitely time for a Dem trick.

Simply accidentally on purpose print all general elections ballots Tommy Holder.

The votes of the Wisconsin farmers who forgot their glasses will be the winning margin since Thompson is further down the ballot.

Michael The Magnificent said...

Garage...It's definitely time for a Dem trick.

Or, find a sad story about how someone died as a result of a policy championed and signed into law by Doyle, and then spend millions airing a commercial which blames the whole thing on Tommy, even after people left right and center point out it's a pack of lies.

Michael The Magnificent said...

Of course, then Tommy can air a commercial about how this unfortunate person would have been saved if only Obamacare had become law a decade earlier.

Mary said...

"It's hard to figure out how to vote strategically — assuming your goal, as a GOP primary voter, is, above all, for the Senate seat to go to the Republican. But it's an open primary, and Democrats might try to get the weakest candidate in. (But who would that be? Neumann?) Or Democrats might pick Thompson, on the theory that he's the least conservative. The Marquette pollster says that including only Republicans made little difference in the numbers — maybe because Democrats looking at Republicans split between the best loser (Neumann?) or the least-bad winner (Thompson). "
----------------------

Or God forbid, (Republican) Wisconsinites should vote for the person they think is best for the job...

You ought to maybe spend a little time thinking/talking about that? Whose actually best for the job, iyho, of course.

Will Hovde -- never held an elected office himself yet -- buy his way into the job? Does Tommy's tradition hold? Is Neumann popular with the Patriot Wisconsinites (the tea party vote, I think...)

Time will tell.

Mary said...

"Sure Tammy is a big Madison liberal. But if you are voting for Obama, is it really any stretch to vote Tammy? They are identical candidates"

Obama is a lesbian and a woman.

I forget: who was Wisconsin's last woman senator again?

(Remember, we're still pretty rural outside of Madison and Milwaukee, and feminism outside the home hasn't been faring all that well lately... You'd never get that from this blog though.)

Michael The Magnificent said...

Obama is a lesbian and a woman.

I remember an episode of Will and Grace about mayoral election that the two got involved in.

She backed the Jewish woman, and he backed the homosexual. Neither was curious of their prospective candidate's positions, beyond the shallow veneer of identity politics. Hilarity ensues.

M.A. said...

Do you notice any Reid backlash in WI? I haven't seen any here in MN, but I can't imagine his tactics are going over too well. A vote for Klobuchar or Baldwin is another vote for Reid - meaning another vote for no passed budgets, another vote for duplicitous guilty until proven innocent accusations, another vote for a do nothing Senate, another vote for tearing down business owners who happen to own a franchise run by a guy who has strong personal beliefs. No matter how much I respect Klobuchar, I don't think I can afford another vote for Reid as majority leader.