July 25, 2012

"By the time Mitt Romney meets with Israel’s leaders on Sunday, the Republican Jewish Coalition will have kicked off an unprecedented political campaign..."

"... back in the U.S. to pick off Jewish American voters in traditional Democratic strongholds in three battleground states."
The RJC campaign comes down to four numbers: 11, 16, 19, and 24. That is the percentage of Jewish voters who went Republican in presidential elections between [1992] and 2004, [Ari] Fleischer said, noting the upward trend. The backward slide to roughly 21 % in 2008 can be attributed to factors such as the popularity of Mr. Obama.

If Republican Jewish voters can push the number closer to 25 % this time, Mr. Fleischer said, “that’s huge.” But the number if 30%, the election’s over, he said, based on gains in his voter group in those three swing states.
Here's the pitch:

43 comments:

Geoff Matthews said...

I thought Jews were concentrated in blue states? If the % goes up to 30, will that be enough to turn these states (NY, CA, PA) red?
Pennsylvania is the only one that I can see going red, but that may be enough.

Ann Althouse said...

@Geoff -- Florida is the biggest swing state with 29 electoral votes. This is a voting bloc to be mined in Florida. There's the election.

cubanbob said...

If only the RNC could bother themselves to get some decent Jewish candidates in heavily Jewish congressional districts such as Debbie Waserman Schult's district. The democrats will be forced to spend tons of money on those districts and if Fleischer is right a large amount of democrat funding will be lost nationally. Obama has the black vote nailed tight but those voters aren't big donors.

Ann Althouse said...

Jews are 7 or 8 percent of the people who actually vote in Florida, and the margin of victory in Florida could be less than 1%.

Sloanasaurus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
cubanbob said...

@Ann that is why its so importuner for the republicans to get qualified and credible Jewish congressional candidates in those districts. Once the voters feels voting republican is an acceptable alternative for congress the vote for a republican president becomes much easier.

How long before Cedaford jumps in with one of his anti-Semitic rants?

cubanbob said...

Sloanasaurus said... in light of the open anti-Semitism of the left your comment of what Jews ought to vote would be too clever by half.

Curious George said...

"Sloanasaurus said...
If I were Jewish, I would continue to support Democrats. In the long run it is far more likely that the party who believes in the all powerful nanny state will suppress you than the party who wants the state to be minimal. Therefore, supporting democrats gives you the best of both worlds. If democrats win with the support of Jews they will concentrate on suppressing or demonizing some other group (rich people or small business owners, or oil company workers). If republicans win, they will be working on just making government smaller so that the government lacks the resources to suppress any group."

Yes, because Jews aren't by and large small business owners or wealthy. Oh, wait...

traditionalguy said...

The 1920 to 1980s GOP (pre Ronald Reagan) whose country clubs proudly excluded wealthy Jewish members to scratch an anti-semitic itch are reaping what they sowed.

Richard Dolan said...

Michael Goldstein will have lots of company in refusing to make the same mistake twice (Ann - that's your inner Meade talking to you), but most of them will not be Jewish.

As the video makes clear, Goldstein is motivated by his view of Obama's failure as a leader; Romney is just the not-Obama in that scenario, the candidate without even a name. Goldstein says only "I'll be voting for the Republican" for president for the first time, not "I'll be voting for Romney."

In part, that is a classic example of the 'referendum' theory where the current president is seeking re-election. As Sean Trende points out today, dissatisfaction with Obama may be enough for Romney to win even without offering a positive program of his own. But Romney has a huge opportunity to seal the deal by selling himself and his accomplishments, and explaining how he would fix what Obama has messed up. It's amazing that the Romney campaign has done so little of that to date. Perhaps we'll get a heavy dose at the RNC in a few weeks. I hope so.

ricpic said...

Yeah, but Sloanassaurus, Jews are rich people and small business owners in higher percentages than the general population. You are correct that the Dems suppress and demonize those two groups, which are often one and the same. So why should Jews continue to vote Democrat?

My take is that they will continue to vote Democrat due to willful blindness.

Rose said...

This is encouraging.

Sloanasaurus said...

The whole ideal of Isreal really is anti Obama. It represents a state founded to protect and serve specific culture and or race of citizens. Their idea is that we won't bother you if you don't bother us. But, lefties like Obama don't like that. They think the world should not be unique or cultured in that way. And it really burns Obama when groups like that have economic success that the rightly keep for themselves.

There are plenty of Jews who also don't like Israel and are still strong supporters of the all powerful state. They will still support Democrats. However, eventually, the ones that do will migrate to Republicans. Its not that Jews have changed, its that both the Democratic Party hand Republican parties have changed. The old post WWII Democratic party of Truman, and Huberty Humphry, JFK etc.. believed in these cultural values, and were anti-communist and against the idea of international culture. The new democratic party is very different. That is why at its core, most democrats would not support the idea of Israel. Jews haven't switched parties yet because it just takes a while to shake off old loyalties.

ricpic said...

yeah, but that's ancient history, tradguy. The Jews' greatest natural political ally is the group that is gaining increasing influence in the Republican Party -- fundamentalist Christians. The irony is that most Jews are irrationally afraid of fundamentalist Christians. At least there was a reason for them to return the favor of rejection offered by country club Republicans, 40 years ago. Today the fundamentalists have their arms open and the Jews are running away.

edutcher said...

Hmmm, lessee now...

Choom has yet to visit Israel

Choom loves to help radical Islamic regimes gain power

Netanyahu bitch slapped him on global TV

I have a feeling the Romster has a fertile field to harvest.

traditionalguy said...

The 1920 to 1980s GOP (pre Ronald Reagan) whose country clubs proudly excluded wealthy Jewish members to scratch an anti-semitic itch are reaping what they sowed.

More like the GOP pre-WWII, Nixon had plenty of Jewish support.

More like a lot of young Jews educated at places like Haavahd.

traditionalguy said...

Ricpic...I see what you say about the Hagees and others who support Israel.

But my Jewish friends still feel a tribal loyalty to Rabbinic Judaism that they see as forever subject to attack from all Christians. Maybe it comes from a deeper memory of 1500 years of European pograms lead by Catholics, and their offspring Lutherans, Anglicans and Presbyterians?

But fear of Obama's lies should wake up the thinkers among them.

cubanbob said...

traditionalguy said...
The 1920 to 1980s GOP (pre Ronald Reagan) whose country clubs proudly excluded wealthy Jewish members to scratch an anti-semitic itch are reaping what they sowed.

7/25/12 11:19 AM

Pretty funny considering Clinton while president used to go golfing at the Indian Creek Golf Club just north of Miami Beach at a time when no Jews were allowed to be members of the club. And the AFL-CIO used to hold it's winter conventions at the Sheraton in Bal Harbor which Clinton addressed several times when not so long before there were no Jews allowed home ownership in Bal Harbor. Just saying.

Shanna said...

That's a pretty serious ad.

traditionalguy said...

CubanBob...Yes, the Dems were allowed to play at those exclusive golf clubs as were any wealthy Jews, but the GOP guys who owned and ran them did blackbal Hebrews for membership applications.

And Nixon did more for the Jews living in Israel than anyone since Truman. Nixon was nobody's fool.

Curious George said...

"Ann Althouse said...
@Geoff -- Florida is the biggest swing state with 29 electoral votes. This is a voting bloc to be mined in Florida. There's the election."

And if Romney picks Rubio...

Hagar said...

But is not Florida busy scrubbing their voter lists of all those not eligible to vote in Florida, including all those New York residents with winter homes in Florida?

Paul Ciotti said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gene said...

I hate to see Michael Goldstein supporting someone like Netanyahu over our own president. Netanyahu doesn't represent America and he doesn't have America's best interests at heart. He can put us into a war with Iran at the drop of a hat.

All he has to do is send a lonely F-16 to bomb Iran and Iran will assume it was done with the support and blessing of the United State. Iran in turn will attack our ships in the Persian Gulf. We will have no choice but to massively respond and there we will be, right in the middle of the next big Mid-east war which will wreck our economy for a generation. And when it's over we'll be a second rate power.

And none of this is in America's hands. It's in Netanyahu's. If Goldstein supports him over the American president, Goldstein is a fool.

Cedarford said...

ricpic - "The Jews' greatest natural political ally is the group that is gaining increasing influence in the Republican Party -- fundamentalist Christians. The irony is that most Jews are irrationally afraid of fundamentalist Christians."

Jews like the political Israel-1st support the Christian Zionists fundies give them, but personally revile them as a group. Hold them in some contempt as dumb rubes.

Less educated, evolution denying, taking stuff Jews wrote and said should not be read literally..as the literal truth of God. Too close in nature to the religious fervered, uneducated peasants of Europe that launched Pogroms.

The other matter is that while some more liberal, progressive Jews like the kneejerk support of Israel, they hate the other political views of Christian Zionists.

Jews in Hollywood and the Jewish lever-pullers of mass media led the Palin-bashing. They regularly run "the Fundie" "the Catholic priests" the "religious CEO" as villains in entertainment. And lampoon the Goobers in news and on reality TV shows in a way Jews would never do to blacks or gays or members of the Tribe.

art.the.nerd said...

I find the comments here to be appallingly naive. It's not about money, country clubs, or even about Israel. This Orthodox Jew would like to provide some perspective. I hasten to say that I speak in generalities here and individual exceptions certainly exist.

Politically as well as ritually, Conservative Jews are hard to categorize, and I will not attempt to do so.

For better or for worse, I note a tension between the "prophetic" side of Judaism and the "halakhic" (legalistic or ritualistic) side.

The prophetic side values tzedakah (charity), tikkun olam (repairing the world), and social justice as the essence of Judaism. This side is often identified with Reform Jews and these individuals are often more comfortable with the Democratic Party.

The halakhic side values tradition over change, family over individuals, authority over anarchy, personal responsibility over communal responsibility. This side is often identified with Orthodox Jews and these individuals are often more comfortable with the Republican Party.

It is also true that Orthodox Jews tend to support Israel more strongly than Reform Jews. With most political candidates, this is not a reason to prefer one party over the other. Arguably the 2012 election is unusual in this regard.

Finally, I note that people who self-identify as Jews are trending more religious, simply because it is so easy to "opt out" of being Jewish in the country. You don't have to be Jewish to enjoy a bagel with cream cheese! If this observation is correct, it makes sense that the "Jewish" vote will trend more conservative politically.

ndspinelli said...

artthenerd, Thanks for your perspective. I believe Netanyahu may be the key. He's exposing Obama as a weak ally of Israel and there may be a shitstorm coming soon w/ Syria/Iran/Hezbollah.

Pookie Number 2 said...

I hate to see Michael Goldstein supporting someone like Netanyahu over our own president. Netanyahu doesn't represent America and he doesn't have America's best interests at heart. He can put us into a war with Iran at the drop of a hat.

It's not Netanyahu's job to represent America, but Obama's weak foreign policy (including unnecessarily insulting allies like Netanyahu, and ignoring the Iranian uprising due to his unrealistic vision of his own influence) also makes the war scenario you describe more likely. American interests would be much better served with Obama replaced.

Rusty said...

Cedarford.
I've told the elders about you. Watch you're back.

Gene said...

Pookie Number 2: It's not Netanyahu's job to represent America. . .

I agree. Netanyahu should represent Israel and Obama (or Romney if he wins) should represent America (not Israel).

As for Obama insulting Netanyahu, the way I heard it it was Netanyahu who hung Obama out to dry. Not that I care in one sense, I just hate to see Americans taking the side of Netanyahu, who just wants us to go fight Iran for him, instead of sticking up for the American president, who, whatever his other faults, presumably has America's best interests at heart.

art.the.nerd said...

@ndspinelli, thank you for your thanks, but I suspect I don't understand your comment.

> I believe Netanyahu may be the key.

The key to what? How American Jews will vote? If so, then we will have to disagree. I know of no one whose vote will be influenced by Mr. Netanyahu's endorsement, whether overt or implied.

> He's exposing Obama as a weak ally of Israel

I'm not sure that anyone needs to "expose" what is glaringly obvious.

ndspinelli said...

art, I meant if Netanyahu launches a preemptive strike Obama will need to react. And, how he reacts will influence Jews on the fence.

I think you may be mistaken by the "glaringly obvious" comment. Nothing is glaringly obvious to an idealogue.

traditionalguy said...

@ Gene...Where have you been? saying Obama presumably has America's best interests at heart is a knee slapper.

Rocketeer said...

I hate to see Michael Goldstein supporting someone like Netanyahu over our own president.

I'm not asserting you're of the left - I don't know - but "America, right or wrong!" is typically not an argument advanced by the left.

Gene said...

traditional guy:
@ Gene...Where have you been? saying Obama presumably has America's best interests at heart is a knee slapper.


Slap away if you want but you should know that I suspect that we both share a similar distaste for Obama and his vision for America. Even so, this isn't to say by his own lights Obama's not doing what he thinks is best for America.

Netanyahu on the other hand is doing what he thinks is best for Israel, which in this case consists in getting the US to go fight a war with Iran for him.

Netanyahu has us over a barrel. If he decides to make even so much as a candy-ass pinprick bomb strike at Iran, Iran will conclude the US and Israel are in cahoots and launch an attack on our ships in the Persian Gulf. Once American sailors die, we will have to respond in a massive way, whereupon we end up in a huge war which we can't afford, don't need and which, prior to the Israeli attack and subsequent Iranian miscalculation, would not have been necessary for our security in the first place.

The US economy is already teetering on the precipice. Another Mid-East war (the third in 10 years) will push us over the edge for another generation.

So if you want to know why I'm critical of Netanyahu, it's the fact that he has in his hot war-ready hands the ability to wreck the financial security of my children (and perhaps mine too), not to mention that of much of America. And there's nothing we can do about it.

Penny said...

It's a mistake to call our allies "strange bedfellows".

Soon enough they may see us as their "bad dream".

Penny said...

And as for the Republican Jewish Voter pitch?

Your tent? It's too small.

When are you going to have enough courage to pitch a tent and a solid message to ALL Jewish voters?

Gene said...

Rocketeer: I'm not asserting you're of the left - I don't know - but "America, right or wrong!" is typically not an argument advanced by the left.

America right or wrong is not my position. But Netanyahu is hardly right here either. He most certainly doesn't have America's best interest at heart (why should he? He's paid to represent Israel.)

I'm no fan of Obama and won't be voting for him, but he's at least he's trying to keep us out of a war with Iran which will wreck our economy and leave us in a thirties' style depression for the next 20 years. Netanyahu on the other hand is doing his best to get us to fight that war for him. Well, phooey on that.

traditionalguy said...

@ Gene...How long gas it been since the USA started asserting that we would enforce the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty on Iran's secret A-Bomb Program about to build a bomb?

Every year for ten or fifteen years, maybe longer.And how many times has Israel attacked Iran? Why not once.

The Iranian Navy ijust announced that it is repositioning warships into the Atlantic Ocean. Do we wait for Bibi to threaten Iran to save our East Coast from inceneration from Iran's nuclear missiles?

Now who did you say is dragging whom into a useless war? Great Satan is Iran's target.

While it is too bad about your pretty grandchildren being threatened with nuclear holocaust, how do you manage to blame that on Netanyhu maintaining sovreignty over Jerusalem since June, 1967 war took in The Old City, expanding those pre 1967 ( meaning the 1949) truce lines that are all that Obama decreed to be legitiment for Jews to live in.

Lawyer Mom said...

Would've been a great pitch if not so heavily worded in the present tense on the front end. All about what we will see Obama do in his second term. As if a 2d term is a fait accompli. Good God, but the Rs are bad at framing, Shiver me timbers.

holdfast said...

"The Jews' greatest natural political ally is the group that is gaining increasing influence in the Republican Party -- fundamentalist Christians. The irony is that most Jews are irrationally afraid of fundamentalist Christians."

I hate to agree with C4 here, but yes, this is true. It's vile how some Jews treat their Christian allies.

Also, Bibi makes Obama look bad because Bibi is an example of a passionate, knowledgeable leader who is an unfailing advocate for his own country. Obama is none of those things, and so he looks like a dork next to Bibi. As icing on the cake, while Bibi's priority is and should be Israel, he seems to have a deep personal fondness for the US that I don't think Obama shares.

Gene said...

traditional guy: While it is too bad about your pretty grandchildren being threatened . . .

That's just crude and cheap.

Gary Rosen said...

"Cedarford.
I've told the elders about you. Watch you're back"

That's hard to do, there's always someone else in the way.

Gary Rosen said...

"The 1920 to 1980s GOP (pre Ronald Reagan) whose country clubs proudly excluded wealthy Jewish members to scratch an anti-semitic itch are reaping what they sowed."

Oh please. When I was growing up ('50s - '60s) there were three country clubs in town - Protestant, Catholic and Jewish. We couldn't get into any of them.