June 6, 2012

"I adore all the news agencies declaring #wirecall being too close to call. DUH! Did we expect anything else?!? #madvote" — a typical entry...

... on the Isthmus "live-blog" that came at 8:31p.m. last night. Isthmus is our local "alternative" newspaper, and the readership over there pervasively left-liberal — Madison style (which is to say they are people steeped in the cloying belief that they are the good people, the people who care about people... and loathe anything tinged with conservatism).

Isthmus had one of those "CoverItLive" gadgets embedded, and it picked up a steady stream, including lots of stuff redirected from Twitter, with more than one post per minute. The polls had closed at 8, at which point the news media had declared — based on exit polling — that it was too close to call. But at 9 pm, all the news media called it for Walker. Between 8:31 and 9:00, the actual vote was coming in, and we were seeing — in stark contrast to the exit poll — that Walker was getting 15 or 16 percentage points ahead of Barrett. So let's dip into the Isthmus feed and see how the confrontation with reality played out. I'm excerpting from the copious flow:


fivethirtyeight: Exit polls show a tie, but Walker's numbers look pretty decent so far in rural Wisconsin. Dems will need huge Milwaukee/Madison turnout. [via Twitter]

8:32...

isthmustdplive: RT @DrosWSJ: Early results are starting to trickle in. Time for everyone to speculate about vote trends that aren't there. #wivote #wirecall [via Twitter]

8:34....

teddynykiel: Large crowd growing in front of the Capitol chanting "People united will never be defeated." #madvote #WIrecall [via Twitter]

8:35...

andymoorewpt: "2 months ago if someone told me it was going to be a coin flip tonight, I wouldn't have believed them." ~Sen. Jon Erpenbach [via Twitter]

8:43...

jjoyce: RT @deborahziff: Fox News getting harrassed on square. "Hey FOX News, we hate you get outta here!" someone just yelled. #wirecall http: ... [via Twitter]

8:46...

WORTnews: On-air analysis: early returns are mostly rural areas, can't really start reading trends till more than 40% of results are in. #wirecall [via Twitter]

8:50...

sgirard9: The room quieted when Rachel Maddow called it for Walker. But many say it's too early to call #wirecall #madvote [via Twitter]

8:52...

MissPronouncer: Crowd cheers at results on big screen. Boo when they see Rep. Barca and fmr Sen Feingold interviewed at Barrett camp. #WiRecall [via Twitter]

8:53...

WORTnews: We have no idea how NBC came up with their projection of Walker winning #wirecall [via Twitter]

8:54...

andymoorewpt: Steam escaping here with Barrett.Room growing quiet. [via Twitter]

8:55...

News3David: There is a 'no way, we don't believe it' mood in conversations I'm overhearing right now at Barrett camp. #wirecall [via Twitter]...

8:59...

WKOW: CNN Projects Walker to Win Historic Recall Election. [via Twitter]

9:00...

news3jessica: Crowd chanting Hey hey goodbye song at Walker HQ #WIrecall [via Twitter]

9:00....

andymoorewpt: Surreal here with Barrett. Half the room laughing, partying, oblivious to other half watching TV with Walker projected winner. [via Twitter]

9:00...

millbot: Somewhat more subdued rendition of "Solidarity Forever" being sung on the square. #wirecall [via Twitter]

9:02...

IsthmusTDP: RT @zschultzWPT: Republican faithful try to start "this is what democracy looks like" chant. It didn't catch on. #wirecall [via Twitter]

9:05...

News3David: .@itsandychoi reporting live right now that there is a growing crowd on Madison's Capitol Square, some chanting 'Our House'. #wirecall [via Twitter]

9:06...

News3David: RT @jamiedupree: Madison Ward 41 goes 2,081 votes for Barrett to 95 votes for Walker [via Twitter]

9:08...

millbot: Well, it sure will be fun when the governor gets indicted, won't it? #wirecall [via Twitter]

9:10...

teddynykiel: Overheard one wide-eyed woman worried bc MSNBC called the race for Walker. She was contemplating going home. #madvote [via Twitter]

9:11...

deanrobbins: Rachel Maddow thinks this isn't a bad night for Obama, says he'll still easily take Wisconsin. #madvote [via Twitter]

9:14...

MSpicuzzaWSJ: Sen Jon Erpenbach says people in Milwaukee & Racine are still voting, adds that it is going to be a long night. [via Twitter]

9:14...

deanrobbins: Sarah Palin gloating on Fox News. Ick. #madvote [via Twitter]

9:17...

itsandychoi: Gathering by Lady Forward. Police say about 1,000 out protesting by square. #wirecall

9:18...

JackCraver: I discovered this in Waunakee last month: There are OBAMA/WALKER voters. They exist: http://bit.ly/Lp6xsZ [via Twitter]

9:21...

27 comments:

Matthew Sablan said...

"that Walker was getting 15 or 16 percentage points ahead of Walker."

-- Impressive guy, Walker.

edutcher said...

Legal Insurrection had a better feed.

Not to mention music and fireworks.

Rather miffed Fox website didn't give a running tally the way they did in the primaries.

dbp said...

Walker ended up winning by 7% and the initial exit polls had it too close to call.

So, what does that tell us about Obama, who would beat Romney by 11% according to exit polls? Maybe he would really only beat Romney by 5%, which is a lot less than the 13% margin he had over McCain in 2008.

Maybe Obama will take Wisconsin in the Fall, but I don't think he wins the general with a loss of 8% nationwide.

YoungHegelian said...

I have a question that's a wee bit OT:

Can someone please explain to me why Ashland, Bayfield, & Douglas counties (far north of Wisconsin) went so strongly Democratic? The other D. strongholds I more or less understand.

Thanks!

X said...

As far as election coverage goes, the Queen's Diamond Jubilee on CNN and Rachel Maddow's Romney hearts Hitler story on MSNBC were comedy gold and told you exactly what was happening in Wisconsin.

Fprawl said...

"pervasively left-liberal — Madison style (which is to say they are people steeped in the cloying belief that they are the good people, the people who care about people... and loathe anything tinged with conservatism)."

I have lived in a town of 1200 and a city of a half million. Why do these people get so much power in a city, while in Babson Park, they have to content themselves with trying to spay all of those feral cats running around.

Purpleslog said...

"Ashland, Bayfield, & Douglas counties (far north of Wisconsin) went so strongly Democratic?"

I assumed they are de-facto suburbs of lefty Minneapolis.

Patrick said...

Purpleslog,

They are near Duluth - big DFL from its labor influence on the Iron Range of MN.

Graham Powell said...

millbot: Well, it sure will be fun when the governor gets indicted, won't it?

#sourgrapes

Brennan said...

Good times. Networks using exit polling data to say Walker voters will vote for Obama in November when the same data showed a neck and neck race between Walker and Barrett.

Russell said...

This post is so gloriously mean. In a good way. Well done.

mr said...

Why were exit polls showing it was too close to call?

Perhaps people were reluctant to admit they had voted for Walker because they feared reprisals from anti-Walker folks.

Nah, couldn't be. Not those peaceful fuzzy bunnies.

Mark Francis said...

Northwestern Wisconsin is like Northeastern Minnesota (St. Louis, Lake, Cook counties). Democratic to the core... traditionally strong union areas, lots of Scandinavians, etc.
Economically stagnation and declining population due at least in part to anti-business policies haven't seemed to convince many that maybe they should try electing some non-liberal leaders. (Both of these areas had US House seats won by Republicans in 2010 after 40+ years of Democratic control. This wasn't due to the area becoming less liberal, but to other, more conservative parts of the district actually exhibiting population growth.)

Chuck66 said...

I used to live in Douglas county and it really isn't Madison style flaming left wing. The only thing I can say is that it is heavy with old style union liberals. Meaning industrial unions. These are the ones that haven't gotten the memo yet that Republicans are good for industry.

Chuck66 said...

Mark, correct. In Minnesota, Twin Cities suburban sprawl has reached the 8th district. And in Wisconsin, the same, plus Cable and Hayward has growth that Superior and Ashland doesn't.

But yeah, I think a lot of it is an older population that votes Democrat "because me dad did, and his dad did"...

Chuck66 said...

But Superior elected a Walker style Republican mayor (Ross) who did Walker style reforms (reign in spending instead of raising taxes) and it worked. Their budget is doing fine and he was re-elected a couple of years ago.

He ran for Lt Governor in 2010.

Scott M said...

But yeah, I think a lot of it is an older population that votes Democrat "because me dad did, and his dad did"...

How in the world does Minnesota have so many sailors?

YoungHegelian said...

Plog, Patrick,MF & Chuck,

Thank you for the explanations!

I suspected it had something to do with iron mines & unions & Scandis, rather than limousine liberals.

Kev said...

(the other kev)

Elections come and go, contests are won and lost. That's life. But it' s hard not to wish bad things on these people.

Moose said...

Wow - reading that #wirecall stream was interesting. Lots of bitter people...

Andrew Koenig said...

Is #wirecall the opposite of #wirelesscall?

Rusty said...

dbp said...
Walker ended up winning by 7% and the initial exit polls had it too close to call.


It is a good thing except that the democrats stuffed the ballot boxes by at least 6%. Otherwise Walker would have gotten 11 or 12 %.
The democrats will try and do a much better job in Nov. We, the other side, much do a much better job of fighting voter fraud.

gail said...

YoungHegelian,
There is also a significant Native American population in those counties, and I believe most of those people lean D.

What I found interesting is the increase in Walker votes in the counties that would have benefited from mining reforms that would have allowed ore mining.

I'm laughing at the libs at uppitywi last night who were claiming voter fraud....I thought there was no voter fraud...

Michael Haz said...

Can someone please explain to me why Ashland, Bayfield, & Douglas counties (far north of Wisconsin) went so strongly Democratic? The other D. strongholds I more or less understand.

There are two main reasons.

First, these counties are among the poorest in Wisconsin and have a high portion of citizens who are dependant on government. They tend to favor Democrat candidates.

Second, those counties also have a strong counter-culture component among its population. They are mostly people who have given up city living in exchange for living in lower cost areas with some self-subsistance. They also favor Democrat candidates. especially those who present themselves as envrionmentalists.

Pete said...

Exit polls seem to be a form of liberal masturbation.

Eric said...

I have lived in a town of 1200 and a city of a half million. Why do these people get so much power in a city, while in Babson Park, they have to content themselves with trying to spay all of those feral cats running around.

Cities have more money and can support specialist classes of people. In a town of 1200 you're going to have a hard time paying the bills as a community organizer.

frank said...

@YoungHegelian: Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, all comments correct. But compare to Iron County:60/40 Walker. Iron [Hurley] was the proposed iron mine site. Ashland= Northland College, 1st class 'environmental' school, 'Bad River' Indian tribe. Douglas [Superior]=Duluth 'twin city' lots of FDR union people + UW-Superior, Bayfield= Indian Tribe, yuppies flocking to the WI 'Hamptons', LOL