June 5, 2012

"Early exit polling in the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election suggests that union household comprise roughly a third of all voters..."

"... a share of the vote that is higher than either of the last two presidential or gubernatorial elections held in the state."
Voters in the recall also tilt positively toward public sector unions in general, but not by a huge margin. Voters split about evenly in their support for changes to state law that limited the collective bargaining ability of government unions, an issue at the heart of recall effort.

Drawing broad conclusions about the shape of the electorate remains difficult due to the fact that these early exit poll reflect only morning and afternoon voters and can (and likely will) shift before polls close at 9 p.m. eastern time.
That's in the Washington Post. I'm not seeing any info on where or how the exit polling was done, but if true — as we say in Wisconsin — that sounds scary for Walker supporters.

ADDED: A Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article that went up 15 minutes ago says:
No statewide figures were available, but local election officials offered fairly similar accounts of a heavy turnout in communities large and small, in both Democratic and Republican areas.

In many places, election officials said turnout was as strong as, or stronger than, it was for the 2010 gubernatorial election. A few even compared it to the 2008 presidential election.
There was a very strong turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, the Democratic stronghold.
But Walker's base also appeared to be turning out strongly, particularly in several Waukesha County communities that favored him by more than a 2-to-1 margin in his 2010 victory over Barrett. Shawn Lundie, Waukesha County Executive Dan Vrakas' chief of staff, believes voter turnout in his county will exceed the state Government Accountability Board's estimate of 60% to 65%.
UPDATE: Drudge is headlining: "EXIT POLLS SHOW WALKER HOLDING SEAT."
WI EXIT POLLS: REMATCH SIMILAR TO ELECTION 2 YEARS AGO, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE... '5 POINT MARGIN'... DEVELOPING...

62 comments:

Pogo said...

The exit polling was done on buses from Minnesota and Michigan.

Jay Retread said...

Given all the money Walker forces spent, it will be an incredible miracle if he loses.

Lets pray for miracles!

Leeatmg said...

According to Prof. Jacobsen over at Legal Insurrection, those same exit polls show an electorate almost exactly the same as the 2010 Walker/Barrett race.

bagoh20 said...

Among the people forced to vote late because they go to work early and come home late, the percentages are gonna be for Walker.

James said...

I'm listening to an interview with Rience Prebius right now...he sounds very confident although he says he isn't making any predictions. He says he knows exactly where Walker stands with the absentee ballots and he's confident in the turnout today.

Jason said...

Drudge's headline:

WI EXIT POLLS: REMATCH SIMILAR TO ELECTION 2 YEARS AGO, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE... '5 POINT MARGIN'... DEVELOPING...

If thats the case, I hope the unions enjoyed wasting that $60 or so million.

edutcher said...

This is the WaPo, after all. They've been doing more sci-fi lately than "Analog".

And it sounds like something to goose the last-minute vote for Barrett.

Jay Retread said...

Given all the money Walker forces spent, it will be an incredible miracle if he loses.

Lets pray for miracles!


Retread wants a little cheese with his whine.

The miracle will be when the Lefties finally give it up.

Pray for that.

PS It's blasphemous to pray for evil. Retread's gonna wake up married to Hatman.

bagoh20 said...

If Walker loses, this election could be even more important than the hype has suggested it will be if he wins.

Imagine the effect on voting legislation that will result. I almost hope he loses, because voter fraud is more important and badly needs addressed. The long needed proof my be upon us.

Alex said...

If Wisconsin wants to commit economic suicide, fuck them.

caseym54 said...

If Walker loses I pray for this benighted country. The unions will turn this entire nation into General Motors.

dreams said...

The Dems are going to steal the election. I doubt anyone followed the 2000 election more than me and I watched them try and steal Florida with their 500 lawyers that were already in Florida election day and the PR firm that was calling voters and pushing the voter disenfranchisement meme. It has become their M.O.

Jay said...

Jay Retread said...
Given all the money Walker forces spent,


Yes!

It is only money! I mean, it isn't like the DNC is broke or anything, so I guess Dems didn't really want Walker to lose!

It isn't the bankruptcy of your ideas, it is just spending!

geokstr said...

The producers have an inherent disadvantage in elections - that they are held on Tuesday. That day was set up when the concept of "weekend" was unknown.

Let's change that to the first weekend in November - both days.

You can bet that the union workers are given plenty of time off to vote, as are other parts of the Democratic base - students, those on the dole, the homeless, the dead, the bovine and the illega..., oops, I mean, Potentially Insufficiently Documented Future Reliable Democratic Voters of La Raza. Holding them on the weekend would allow those who have productive jobs in the real world the opportunity to vote as well.

bagoh20 said...

There should be an extensive audit of a few elections like this that are very contentious. Review every ballot and secretly record polling places etc. to get a good idea of what is or is not happening. I know that conservatives have no fear of that. I bet liberals would fight it tooth and nail.

Jay said...

Obama down to 52% on Intrade...

Alex said...

bagoh - oh please I'm so tired of hearing conservatives crying foul whenever they lose an election. Man up and admit Wisconsin is a progressive state and Walker never should have eliminated collective bargaining.

Roger J. said...

Alex--I suspect we will find out late tonite or tomorrow morning, wont we--Bagh of course, can speak for himself

Jason said...

bagoh - oh please I'm so tired of hearing conservatives crying foul whenever they lose an election. Man up and admit Wisconsin is a progressive state and Walker never should have eliminated collective bargaining.

LOL

Synova said...

I would wish for a media/reporting blackout on election day. Particularly with exit polling. Early reports influence the vote. Late voters decide to stay home.

Certainly that happened in Florida where the state has two separate time zones and victory (for Gore) was declared by the media before the polls closed. Considering that recounts were so very close, that *mattered*. What we can't know is how many people who would have voted for Gore didn't bother since he'd already won, and how many who'd have voted for Bush didn't bother since Gore'd already won.

I suppose that in Wisconsin reports that things are close will get more people out but it would be better for citizen confidence, I think, to not have the running totals.

Wally Kalbacken said...

Pump up da volume in Waukesha Co.!

X said...

are those the same union households that are choosing not to pay their union dues now that it's not sucked out of their paychecks?

bagoh20 said...

Alex,

Both sides claim voter fraud when they lose. I want to know the truth, but I wonder why liberals don't. They seem surprisingly un-curious. I know conservatives would welcome a fair analysis, regardless of who won the election, as long as the analysis is done fairly. What are liberals scared of? You know damned well it would be the left that would fight finding out the truth. In fact, I think this race would be a good candidate for analysis especially if Walker wins. Then your little whine would be stifled, and I think we would still find lots of Dems cheated. You wanna join that call right now?

chickelit said...

Alex said...
bagoh - oh please I'm so tired of hearing conservatives crying foul whenever they lose an election.

Alex, you're an idiot in this case. The WI recall is all about urban liberals crying foul over losing fair and square.

alan markus said...

Early reports influence the vote. Late voters decide to stay home.

That is so 1980's. Any citations to back that up? I googled "Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior" and couldn't come up with anything conclusive (and noting newer than 1986), other than losers saying it affected the outcome.

n.n said...

If the public unions win, then the taxpayers lose. The taxpayers still constitute a majority of American citizens.

This is a referendum of the people's choice for liberty or submission with benefits.

Lem said...

If they have same day registration, as I'm reading here... is there a limit on how many resident can register per household?

Or is it an all you can eat type deal?

Damon said...

Who knew that many years ago when Althouse started the blog that she would be in the center of the political universe geographically. Your coverage has been thoroughly enlightening, and I am glad to see it. However, part of me is also sad to see the political dichotomy tearing up your state. Seeing it from 10,000 feet is so much simpler to stomach.

kcom said...

"Seeing it from 10,000 feet is so much simpler to stomach."

Don't worry, this sort of thing is coming to a federal government near you.

James said...

>>If they have same day registration, as I'm reading here... is there a limit on how many resident can register per household?

Or is it an all you can eat type deal? <<

The rule is you have to be resident in the state for 28 days and provide evidence of such residence. A lease or any utility bill serves as proof of residence. So if multiple residents are named on a lease they can all register.

eteam said...
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eteam said...

Given the recent reports that 30-50% of AFSCME and WEAC union members have dropped their union memberships, I don't see how 'union household' share of voters can match past elections.

leslyn said...

bagoh said,

"Among the people forced to vote late because they go to work early and come home late, the percentages are gonna be for Walker."

Uh uh. Tend to go Democratic.

leslyn said...

Waukesha County...is that where the Alzheimer county clerk is? Lordy, and I can't stand the suspense of waiting four days to find out what their vote total is.

edutcher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
edutcher said...

leslyn said...

Among the people forced to vote late because they go to work early and come home late, the percentages are gonna be for Walker.

Uh uh. Tend to go Democratic


Try again.

Flex workers in white collar jobs.

ALH said...

Agree with Christian Schneider: voting early today in my area was very busy (line of 50, instead of the usual 5-10 people at 7am). By 6pm, things are much slower than I would have expected. Just a few cars at the polling area.


Showed my ID when I went to get my ballot - "We don't need that". "I would feel more comfortable if you knew that I am truly who I am claiming to be". she just rolled her eyes.

James said...

Stephen Hayes just tweeted:
"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Please God, let Walker win and the Unions lose. If not, we are most certainly doomed to try to do any reforms of any kind and the ride to Hell in our current handbasket will be swift and most likely deadly.

leslyn said...

Please God, let Barret win. If not, we are most certainly doomed and the ride to Hell in our current handbasket will be swift and most likely deadly.

Mark said...

My guess is that the Federales "observing" this election aren't there so much to ensure that the law is followed as they are to see if they can spot any novel strategies and tactics to pass up the chain of command.

Jay said...

James said...
Stephen Hayes just tweeted:
"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."


Why bother?

It isn't like the judge is at all interested in the law...

Dust Bunny Queen said...

"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."

WTF? Don't people know what the times of the polling places are and have known it for YEARS. Can't people in Wisconsin tell time. Plan ahead. Cast absentee ballots?

Why the last minute drama and brinkmanship? It isn't like the rules haven't been known and posted for quite some time? It isn't like there aren't already many different ways to vote. AND it certainly isn't like this election was some big surprise!

Mark said...

"Why the last minute drama and brinkmanship?"

Purely an operations thing. It takes time to falsify the number of ballots they're going to need.

Fen said...

Any citations to back that up? I googled "Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior" and couldn't come up with anything conclusive (and noting newer than 1986), other than losers saying it affected the outcome.

Florida 2000. Early MSM calls depressed turnout in Florida panhandle (diff time zone)

And I didn't need Google for that. Learn to think for yourself.

tim in vermont said...

"Waukesha County...is that where the Alzheimer county clerk is? Lordy, and I can't stand the suspense of waiting four days to find out what their vote total is."

Exactly! How will the Democrats know how many votes they need to create if the numbers don't come out on time?

Napalm in the Morning said...

Will we get to see another one of these hissy fits tonight from Graeme Zielinski?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwMFpl1KLb8

Steve Koch said...

Mark said...
"Why the last minute drama and brinkmanship?"

"Purely an operations thing. It takes time to falsify the number of ballots they're going to need."

Good point plus the dems don't know how many votes they need to manufacture until everybody else has stopped voting.

The GOP controlled house should be impeaching judges that issue political activist opinions (such as the judge who prevented the new voter ID law from being implemented for this election).

leslyn said...

"Two WI GOP sources say Dems/Barrett preparing lawsuit to keep polls open late in Dane & Milwaukee counties. GOP will fight it."

Don't know what this means. I do know that a few years ago I raced to a polling place after work and got there at 2 minutes to 8, and I and three others were refused entry by an old lady who said she had closed the door on the line. We could see the line through the door of the polling station, winding down the stairs. I had to call the election commission to get them to talk to her to let us in. They sighed and said she was "doing it again." We did eventually get in, though. After I handed her the phone.

An undecided issue, as far as I know, is whether people waiting in line before the poll closes are still allowed to vote. Most places permit it. Some do not.

leslyn said...

tim in vermont said...
"Waukesha County...is that where the Alzheimer county clerk is? Lordy, and I can't stand the suspense of waiting four days to find out what their vote total is."

Exactly! How will the Democrats know how many votes they need to create if the numbers don't come out on time?

How will the Waukesha County Clerk know how many bags of votes she needs to find if she doesn't wait a few days?...Like last time.

James said...

Heh...30 minutes to go...we'll see.

?Christian Schneider ‏@Schneider_CM

RT @RickEsenberg: @Schneider_CM If they DON"T sue, it's a bad sign for Barrett. Suggests its beyond the margin of litigation.?

leslyn said...

The live blogging is saying now that people in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote.

tim in vermont said...

"How will the Waukesha County Clerk know how many bags of votes she needs to find if she doesn't wait a few days?...Like last time."

This kind of chicken has been going on since at least 1960, when Daley stole the election from Nixon (no wonder he was bitter and distrustful) by waiting that little bit longer for the returns from downstate.


verification: hip shart? Really?

Patrick said...

Actually, it's been going on forever. That's how LBJ lost his first campaign for a congressional seat. "His" precincts reported first. Rookie mistake.

Mark said...

The live blogging is saying now that people in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote.

FWIW, that sounds right to me. Fair to Wisconsin voters, and a consolation prize to Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois voters whose buses got held up in rush-hour traffic.

Hoosier Daddy said...

Good luck Governor Walker. I just want you to know, we're all counting on you.

Jay said...

leslyn said...
The live blogging is saying now that people in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote.


I believe by law, they have to be allowed to vote.

holdfast said...

If you're in line, you should be allowed to vote. If you show up after the polls are supposed to close, screw you - go home and learn the value of punctuality.

Funny how the Dems always have to sue to preserve the "right"s of criminals, illegal aliens, slackers, out-of-staters and the dead. It's almost like they know they can't win with actual, live, eligible voters.

n.n said...
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n.n said...

bagoh20:

It should be clear by now that the majority of Democrats, or at least the current administration, does not care about civil rights and not only has demonstrated a preference for disenfranchising American citizens, but has actively sought its enforcement.

Here's the latest example of the internal division wrought by these fanatics inside our burgeoning bureaucracy.

Forest Service hit for Border Patrol call
The ruling by the Agriculture Department’s assistant secretary for civil rights [Joe Leonard, Jr. Ph.D] could change policies nationwide as law enforcement agencies grapple with how far they can go in trying to help the Border Patrol while not running afoul of racial profiling standards.

It's ironic that civil rights leaders are at the forefront of violating civil rights. Subversion from within is the most insidious.

This is how civil rights are violated through an emotional appeal and a precedent derived from a selective history. The intervention by the Justice Department to prevent Arizona's effort to preserve its republican form of government was only the most visible action to undermine Americans' rights.

The integrity of civil servants cannot be established through progressive fiscal compensation. It cannot be processed through redistributive (i.e. involuntary exploitation) and retributive (i.e. reparations) change. This only acts as a sponsor of corruption.

vbspurs said...

Thank you, thank you, thank you, Wisconsin. From the bottom of my little immigrant heart.

Cheers,
Victoria

vbspurs said...

What I absolutely adored on Twitter, were all the progressive surrogates tweeting madly for those in the precincts to stay there, if they arrived prior to 8 PM.

As if to suggest that the high turnout was for no other reason, than a disproportionately high Democrat turnout salivating to cast their Barrett votes.

HAH.

I said, I said, HAH. /Foghorn Leghorn

Cheers,
Victoria

Lauderdale Vet said...

Yay :)