May 16, 2012

Scott Walker releases positive job numbers.

And his recall opponent Tom Barrett accuses him of cooking the books.

Aren't all job numbers cooked?

AND: There's also this story about Barrett's wife using public school district email for political purposes in violation of school district policy. Barrett says: "Of course they're going to try and bring my wife into this. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to drag my kids into this. They will do anything they can because they are fighting for their life." And the first comment over there is: "If this story was about Walker's wife instead of Barrett's, the libs would be screaming for his head on a platter. Instead, they're treating it like it's no big deal. Hypocrites."

Fighting for their life... Ugh! I'm so tired of Wisconsin over-dramatizing. I look forward to getting past the recall, which I presume Walker will win and which I believe will restabilize people in reality.

Barrett's line makes me think of all the times I've heard the anti-Walker protesters singing "We are the gentle angry people/And we are singing, singing for our lives." They lost a gubernatorial election and some budget reform legislation passed. No one was dying!

Ironically, Barrett's big campaign theme is that he will "end the civil war" in Wisconsin. You posit a war, then you purport to have the way to end it. How about not creating a phony war in the first place?

Let's be clear: This is about solving budget problems in Wisconsin. It's not a war. No one is dying. If you want to model normalcy, act normal. Be the adult. This isn't a civil war. You're not Abraham Lincoln. It's a pretty damned mundane problem to be solved. What is your solution? Walker was elected. He put his solution through and he stands by it. What is the alternative?

ADDED: Intrade has Walker winning the recall at 82.0%.

UPDATE: Walker's up to 89.5% at Intrade!

55 comments:

edutcher said...

There are all kinds of adjustments, seasonal and such, for job figures; this is why a lot of people don't trust the BLS numbers.

That said, Walker has been doing the same thing as Kasich, lobbying companies in high tax states and now it's starting to bear some fruit.

MadisonMan said...

If they weren't positive he wouldn't release them.

Scott M said...

"How It's Made" shows heat being related in both the manufacture of paper products and microcircuits, so either way they are released...yeah, all job numbers are cooked.

dac said...

Walkers numbers are actual reported numbers, and are considered far more accurate than the previous estimates. There only downfall is that they are from six months ago, so they don't speak to today

Mitchell said...

It reflects poorly on Barrett that his flack doesn't know what it means to "cook the books."

Or the Associated Press.

Take your pick.

al said...

Actual data vs a survey. Could explain the numbers...

--

From the Governor's twitter feed:
 
Governor Walker @GovWalker 3h
 
Independent economist says new data is much more reliable.
 
Governor Walker @GovWalker 4h
 
New jobs #s came from data from more than 96% of WI employers. Old data based on poll of about 3.5% of employers
 
Governor Walker @GovWalker 4h
 
WI added 23,321 jobs in 2011 (57,221 more than estimates suggested). New #s based on actual survey of 150,000+ employers.

Original Mike said...

"I wouldn't be surprised if they try to drag my kids into this."

Yeah, well that's rich, considering the harrassment the Walker family has had to endure.

David said...

Of course they are all cooked. BLS numbers are extrapolations from limited data, modified by formula adjustments for seasonality and other factors.

Here is what BLS says about the accuracy of its data:

When a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed, there is a chance that the sample estimates may differ from the "true" population values they represent. The exact difference, or sampling error, varies depending on the particular sample selected, and this variability is measured by the standard error of the estimate. There is about a 90- percent chance, or level of confidence, that an estimate based on a sample will differ by no more than 1.6 standard errors from the "true" population value because of sampling error.

Got it?

EMD said...

which I presume Walker will win and which I believe will restabilize people in reality.

Don't be so sure.

David said...

What is their alternative?

Their alternative is to ignore the problem.

Which is why Tea Party candidates, with all their flaws, are preferable to the standard statist liberals. At least TP candidates have diagnosed the issue.

David said...

Mrs. Barrett dragged herself into this.

penelope said...

According to “Chief Executive” magazine, between 2010 and 2011 Wisconsin moved from #41 to #24 for Best States for Business. In 2012, Wisconsin moved up another four places to #20. I can’t speak for the good people of Wisconsin, but clearly corporate America thinks something is working in Wisconsin.

Martin L. Shoemaker said...

There will be no stabilizing in reality. "It's not over 'til we win," remember? Until that comment and comments like it are walked back, Wisconsin is in perpetual campaign mode. Because even if the Democrats win, the Republicans will just learn that that's the way the game is played, and they'll match it.

Brent said...

... Ugh! I'm so tired of Wisconsin over-dramatizing

I've been tellin' ya for long now . . ?

traditionalguy said...

Nice pleading Professor.

You are pleading reality in place of comforting mass delusions.Who will win?

The eyes of the nation are upon Wisconsin.

Quayle said...

God bless you for calling the politicians the infantile children they usually are.

Scott M said...

The eyes of the nation are upon Wisconsin.

Minus the DNC comptroller. They're not sending any money to help unseat Walker.

Saint Croix said...

It's not a war. No one is dying.

See also "the war on women."

Is it a coincidence that Obama lost his advantage among women when he made this ridiculous charge?

Jay said...

Walker/Kleefisch reforms saved $800million with no tax increase, saved public teacher jobs, and now a $154m surplus.

Of course that is why the talking points have migrated to "mob lawyers" and "cooking the books"

Original Mike said...

"Intrade has Walker winning the recall at 82%."

Wow, garage is going to make a killing. Right, garage?

tim maguire said...

All job numbers, much like inflation statistics, are manipulated to reflect well on the party in power. Have been for generations, probably always will be.

But if Walker's books are "cooked" in the same manner they've always been, then Barret has no honest complaint. Also, they can still be useful for showing trends if not hard numbers.

Scott M said...

Wow, garage is going to make a killing. Right, garage?

Which reminds me instantly of the South Park where Satan challenged Jesus to a boxing match, let everyone bet on him, then took a dive, being the only one in the world that bet on Jesus to when by knockout.

Genius.

Original Mike said...

I hope Walker didn't see that episode, Scott.

Matthew Sablan said...

"You're not Abraham Lincoln."

-- If it were the Civil War, Barrett would be Jefferson Davis, wouldn't he? I mean, he's the one trying to oust the previous leader. Walker's Lincoln, the tired, beleaguered man who just wants everyone to stick together, and maybe hug it out.

Matthew Sablan said...

On the other hand, there is some burning going on! That's Civil War-ish, right?

Original Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joe said...

What is your solution? Walker was elected. He put his solution through and he stands by it. What is the alternative?

What ARE Barrett's proposals? Beuller?

Jay said...

Uh oh:

When I journeyed to Wisconsin last week, I saw a surge of public support for Walker -- signs, bumper stickers, little tokens like those -- unlike anything I've ever seen in a non-presidential race. The polling bears this out. It's not necessarily doom-saying for Obama. It does explain why the DNC is quietly backing away from the race. Easier to give up then to try and narrow this enthusiasm gap twice.


Don't believe those lies garage!

Unions now, unions forever!!111~~~

TMink said...

"Let's be clear: This is about solving budget problems in Wisconsin."

From my perspective this has nothing to do with Wisconsin's budget. It is about political party and union power. You have people of average intelligence in Wisconsin, they could solve their budget problems at least as easily as we have in Tennessee. The budget is at best a tertiary concern so far as I observe.

Trey

John Cunningham said...

I wonder what are the monthly collections for personal and business income taxes in WI since Walker took office, and what sales tax receipts are adding up to? these would be pretty objective markers of economic activity, it would seem
also, since the reduction of union power, what has been the resignation rates among public school teachers and state employees?

Original Mike said...

"From my perspective this has nothing to do with Wisconsin's budget. It is about political party and union power."

But the reason to fight union and democrat power is to tame the budget problems. It's not done for sport.

Unknown said...

What are.....collections for personal and business income taxes in WI since Walker took office, and what sales tax receipts are adding up to?

Answer here:::::

Republican Gov. Scott Walker's administration said Thursday that its new revenue projections show the state will finish the 2011-2013 budget years with a surplus rather than the deficit predicted earlier this year.

The projections were based on stronger-than-anticipated personal income growth last year, Walker officials said. The numbers could give the governor a boost as he heads into a June 5 recall election against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

http://centralwisconsinhub.wausaudailyherald.com/article/20120511/WDH0101/205110558/Gov-Scott-Walker-s-office-announces-state-budget-surplus

traditionalguy said...

At this point, Barrett's only chance is Union Choke Hold muscle used on that pencil necked geek, Walker.

It's time for another Road Trip to Illinois.

David said...

since the reduction of union power, what has been the resignation rates among public school teachers and state employees?

The resignation rate is very high--over 80%, if what you are referring to is resignation from the union. Once union dues stopped being mandatory, most of the pro union teachers stopped paying them. That shows you what they really think of their union.

RonF said...

"... I presume Walker will win and which I believe will restabilize people in reality."

You only wish. Walker's win will send the public union-aligned left into complete denial. It'll be a conspiracy involving the Koch brothers forcing the DNC's to refuse to fund Barrett, blah blah blah. You underestimate the Madison echo chamber. The reverberations inside it keeps them from hearing anyone else and scrambles their brains.

Chuck66 said...

Unknown......good point on the income.

One of the best indicators of ecomonic activity is sales tax reciepts. Very much a direct corraletion.

A really good economist will look at FedEx/UPS traffic and airport busyness.

Original Mike said...

"Walker's up to 89.5% at Intrade!"

I bet garage is kicking himself for buying Barrett at 18%.

Alex said...

Liberals have diagnoses the problem as well - lack of investment in infrastructure and education. They do have a point in that our priorities are all skewed towards the corporate mentality of "next quarter, next quarter"...

damikesc said...

The resignation rate is very high--over 80%, if what you are referring to is resignation from the union. Once union dues stopped being mandatory, most of the pro union teachers stopped paying them. That shows you what they really think of their union.

That was always a point the Left couldn't explain.

If people LOVE their unions so --- why would they not support them financially when not legally required to do so?

I mean, I donate to my church. And they don't promise to get me more money for doing so.

Unknown said...

Not disagreeing, but do you have a citation for this?

The resignation rate is very high--over 80%, if what you are referring to is resignation from the union.

verification words

reatusC cvilityul

(civility y'all)

Michael Haz said...

Walker is at 89.5% on Intrade? What's the record? If it isn't 89.5%, it has to be awfully close.

PatCA said...

Maybe this will knock some sense into our governor Moonbeam.

Original Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chip S. said...

No Steve Jobs tag?

Scott M said...

No Steve Jobs tag?

Who is this Steve guy I keep hearing about and why is there an entire type of labor named for him? Was he a janitor?

Chip S. said...

stevedore

Calypso Facto said...

I wonder what are the monthly collections for personal and business income taxes in WI since Walker took office, and what sales tax receipts are adding up to?

John Koskinen, Chief Economist, Wisconsin Department of Revenue, addresses these and other issues while handing the BLS its lunch about job growth in Wisconsin in this video.

Petunia said...

If Barrett and the Dems had any brains, they'd accept the new numbers as accurate, but point out that, by this point in his term, Walker should have created about 90,000 jobs if he hopes to reach 250,000 in four years.

But they're not that smart. Or they wouldn't be trying to make people believe the lie that this is about jobs and campaigns rather than benefits for spoiled government union employees.

Bill said...

The sad thing is, if this was the other way around and it was a Democratic governor doing this, Althouse and all of the commenters here would be having a shitfit. But, of course, that's not the case.

Forbes has already debunked this nonsense.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/15/scott-walker-magically-turns-dismal-wisconsin-job-numbers-into-a-pre-election-miracle/

chickelittl said...

Forbes has already debunked this nonsense.

Debunked? If you read the comments, they seem to debunk the author's own bunk.

Rusty said...

Bill said...
The sad thing is, if this was the other way around and it was a Democratic governor doing this, Althouse and all of the commenters here would be having a shitfit.




No we wouldn't.
Thanks for playing.

Jay said...

Bill said...
The sad thing is, if this was the other way around and it was a Democratic governor doing this, Althouse and all of the commenters here would be having a shitfit. But, of course, that's not the case.


Um, the 2 men who ran data were recall signatories.

OOPSIE!

Bill said...

Rusty said...

No we wouldn't.
Thanks for playing.
--------

Except, of course, you absolutely would. Don't feel bad--both sides do it all the time. I mean, take Bin Laden, for example--you're all whining and bitching that Obama keeps invoking his death for political gain, but were all perfectly find when Bush did it with Hussein and, more notably, 9/11.

Naturally, I think it's fine Obama uses Bin Laden's death but thought what Bush did with 9/11 was awful.

The same can be said about the polls--Althouse links Rasmussen more than any other polling company on here, simply because the results of their polls line up to something she views as favorable. Nevermind the fact that they're horribly inaccurate (last few elections have proven that) and Rasmussen is known for asking slanted questions to get the results they want.

Go ahead, keep being silly. I know you don't like to acknowledge other, valid points of view.

Jay said...

I mean, take Bin Laden, for example--you're all whining and bitching that Obama keeps invoking his death for political gain, but were all perfectly find when Bush did it with Hussein and, more notably, 9/11.


Except Bush did no such thing.

Everything you're posting is a lie or in service to a lie.

Bill said...

Jay,

Are you some kind of moron? I can't count how many times Bush metioned 9/11 at debates or during stump speeches in the 2004 election. Hundreds.

To even suggest otherwise shows the most incredible level of ignorance I've ever seen. 9/11 was used as a justification for everything (Iraq war, Patriot Act, etc), and it was featured prominently throughout the 2004 election. Hell, McCain even tried using it in the 2008 election.

You are a fool if you can honestly say, with a straight face, that 9/11 wasn't used for political gain. I don't know even one Republican who would deny that.