April 13, 2012

Obama is reeelected, Scott Walker survives the recall, and the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare.

Things that are just about exactly likely, according to the insights of Intrade. (Currently, 60.8, 61.0, 63.3, respectively.)

28 comments:

edutcher said...

As I've said before, how many of these guys have been betting on the wrong horse for the last 20 years?

And how many of those people are spending the DNC's money to spread a little FUD?

Beta Rube said...

I wonder if the InTrade guys are giving any weight to the Milwaukee County John Doe probe. A key indictment or two in late May could be just the thing the Dems need.

That the Milwaukee DA's office is a wing of the recall campaign is an article of faith among local conservatives (including yours truly).

Jana said...

Intrade is only a barometer of conventional wisdom. It's useless for prognostication.

chickenlittle said...

I was in Vegas recently...and made some bets.

Gene said...

Sounds about right to me, though I'm not sure about Obamacare being axed. Perhaps it's my native pessimism. Obama certainly expects to be re-elected, given what he was overheard telling the Russian president.

Mark Leavy said...

~60% odds across the board is a little less than two out of three.

Leo said...

I wish we could get the odds for Obama winning and individual mandate overturned. Or Scott walker winning and Obama winning so that we can work out how related everything is.

rehajm said...

Most of the props on Intrade trade too thin to be an accurate predictor of future events. Daily volumes for presidential candidates run in the low thousands. One good drop of PAC money can skew sentiment quite easily- just ask Hillary's campaign manager. The wisdom of crowds can be powerful, but Intrade is no crowd...

Col. Pooteh said...

I could live with that, provided we have a GOP Senate and House to go along with it.

Leo said...

Intrade gives senate at around 60% and congress at around 70% atm

Blogger Account said...
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America's Politico said...
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America's Politico said...

Does anyone recall the David Gergen (The man who says he is the Adviser to POTUS's) question about Kennedy's seat to Scott Brown? That was the turning point of the election, because Brown took advantage of it.

Hilary Rosen's comment is the turning point of this election, if and only if Romney can leverage it.

Else Obama/Biden will defeat Romney/Ryan or Portman.

Q.E.D.

Jay said...

The most important of the 3 is getting this vacation every other week clown out of the White House.

Given that all he wants to do is vacation, golf, make dumb comments about the issue of the day, and has no political capital (he won't campaign with any Democrat in an race that is seemingly tight), why is he even running?
He can do all of that without being President.

Rusty said...

America's Politico said...
Does anyone recall the David Gergen (The man who says he is the Adviser to POTUS's) question about Kennedy's seat to Scott Brown? That was the turning point of the election, because Brown took advantage of it.

Hilary Rosen's comment is the turning point of this election, if and only if Romney can leverage it.


He won't have to. Democrat operatives keep doubling down on stupid. NOW has jumped in and stepped on their tits, again.

Issob Morocco said...

Yea right Obama is re-elected. A new poll out has my cat winning 40 states over Obama. Yeah he wins the other 17, but only 10 have electoral votes.

The wave is growing soon to swamp Chicago-On-The-Potomac and my guess this part of the piece is a rear view mirror shot and a picture with Romney versus Obama.

Tim said...

Intrade isn't determinative, but this seems about right.

A nation dumb enough to elect Barack the first time around is almost certainty too dim to learn from its mistakes.

America's Politico said...
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America's Politico said...
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madAsHell said...

America's Politico has returned with the locusts.

TomHynes said...

Althouse has a theory that losing in the Supreme Court will improve Obama's chances. Intrade lets you test that idea: Compare the market for Obama before and after the release of the Supreme Court results.

I agree with her and made a side bet with a friend that she is right.

leslyn said...

BetaRube said,

I wonder if the InTrade guys are giving any weight to the Milwaukee County John Doe probe. A key indictment or two in late May could be just the thing the Dems need. That the Milwaukee DA's office is a wing of the recall campaign is an article of faith among local conservatives (including yours truly). 4/13/12 11:21 P.M.

Can't count out the concurrent federal corruption probe. Although those things can take years.

Fen said...

Democrat operatives keep doubling down on stupid. NOW has jumped in and stepped on their tits, again.

Heh. Like that. But considering how NOW slanders conservative females as "not being women", I think we should return the favor. They are no women in NOW - just a bunch of withering feminazi lesbian hags.

Although I'm surprised anyone still takes NOW seriously. For a decade they lectured us about sexual harassment in the workplace. Then, when their poster-boy was in the dock, they got down on their hands and knees and prostituted their principles for veto of a partial birth abortion ban. And orgy of withered lesbians crawling over each other to lap up Clinton's cum. Why listen to them about anything?


* exception - the Virginia Chapter of NOW were the only ones to stand by their principles.

Fen said...

Thats' what led to the creation of Fen's Law: The Left doesn't really believe in the things they lecture the rest of us about

I've found that it applies to almost everything the Left says.

Saint Croix said...

You know, I think an even stronger argument against Obamacare is one Scalia made in jest. "Do you expect us to read this thing?"

I actually think it's unconstitutional to sign a bill that you haven't read. It violates due process. If you're going to pass a bill, you have to read it. Not your staff, you. Not a short summary of it. The law, you have to know the law.

Our laws should be understood by our people. If our laws are so bulky, so unwieldy, so bureaucratic, that nobody knows what the law actually is, then that is not a law at all.

If Pelosi is going to pass a bill, she has to read it. She has to know what's in it.

If Obama is going to sign a bill, he has to read it, and understand it. Failure to do so is a violation of his oath of office.

If the Supreme Court is going to vote on the constitutionality of Obamacare, at a very basic level they have to read it.

The insane size of the bill--and Pelosi's admission that she did not read it--is unconstitutional per se.

Fen said...

If our laws are so bulky, so unwieldy, so bureaucratic, that nobody knows what the law actually is, then that is not a law at all.

*Breaking News*

CBS reports they have just received a memo from an Emperor Justin. It reads as follows:

"Hello America. My name is Justin. I used to work as an intern for the Government Printing Office.

While we were working on the Affordable Care Act, I slipped in a provision declaring me dictator for life.

Please prepare your daughters and estates accordingly.

Lovingly
Emperor Justin

Fen said...

PS. Don't blame Congress. You are the rubes who sent these idiots to DC to represent your interests. Too bad they couldn't be bothered to read the bill.

Leo said...

Hey Tom Hynes I was watching as the chances changed from around 30 to 60 as the oral arguments occurred and there was not a large change in the odds for Obama reelection. I'm now far less willing to believe that story about the supreme court decision making it easier for Obama to win