April 2, 2012

52% of Wisconsin voters support the recall of Gov. Scott Walker.

According to Rasmussen.
The findings mark a shift from late February, when 54% said they would vote against the recall....

Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats support Walker’s recall, as do 54% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Republicans (88%) overwhelmingly oppose the recall.

Wisconsin voters that earn less than $60,000 annually tend to favor the governor’s recall. A majority of those that make over that salary would vote against Walker’s recall.

Forty-seven percent (47%) now approve of the job Governor Walker is doing, down from 52% a month ago. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove of the governor’s job performance. These numbers include 42% who Strongly Approve and 46% who Strongly Disapprove.

61 comments:

Bob said...

Let me explain - - no, it would take too long. Let me sum up: Takers support recall, Makers oppose it.

David said...

Gonna be close.

Lem said...

Good..

Good old Warren Buffet is going to pay their insurance.. oh wait..

Warren Buffet lives in Omaha?

Well, I'm sure Wisconsin has a boat load of billionaires that can pick up the tab.

Palladian said...

Your tiresome state bores us.

Zachary Paul Sire said...

I don't know why you always cite these Rasmussen polls. Over and over and over and over again. "According to Rasmussen..."

Regardless of how you feel about their findings, it's a notoriously biased polling organization.

Michael K said...

Actually, Rasmussen is pretty accurate because he polls likely voters. That is what is so depressing about it. If he prediction is accurate, Wisconsin is in for a spell of bad luck.

“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as ‘bad luck’.”

– Robert A. Heinlein

Ann Althouse said...

I think the poll is skewed by the failure to name an opponent. It's one thing to say replace this governor, quite another to say I prefer Kathleen Falk (or Tom Barrett).

Who would you prefer: Walker or Falk?

That's not going to get 52% for Falk.

Chuck66 said...

Good point AA (on not naming an opponent). Related...I would like a poll to ask "would you be in favor of removing all of Governor Walkers reforms, and paying for the rollback by large tax increases and Illinois style layoffs of public employees".

bagoh20 said...

You might as well move to California. At least the weather is nice. Your state is just getting ready to commit suicide, while ours has already started the wake and is totally wasted. I love you man.

Soon we will rise as the zombie state and come for you brains. On second thought, we should go to Texas for our nourishment.

AllieOop said...

The sun will shine on Wisconsin no matter who is governor, well maybe not until July. Except for this year, it may be a good omen or bad, depending.

Skippy said...

Is a two percent change a huge shift, one of statistical significance or validity?

Gene said...

You got that totally right. We're going to have two tax increase measures on the ballot this year. One is sponsored by a leftist and the other measure is to the left of that.

It's entirely possible both might pass. Governor Brown is a Machiavellian figure. To make sure everyone votes for the tax increase, he cut back the aid for universities and community colleges so far that 140,000 community college students couldn't get the courses (or any courses) that they need to graduate.

He did this to fire up the voters, make them realize the need for tax increases. He could have cut back on union pay, retirement, big salaries or diversity administrators (who account for much of the bloat). But that wouldn't fire up the voters.

a psychiatrist who learned from veterans said...

Depressing. Did you see the gender gap, Obama v. Romney? You know I like Santorum, the pugnacious Catholic. I wouldn't mind but I'm sure I'm in a minority imagining him trying to help out by handing out BCP coupons at the Romney rallies.

leslyn said...

Ann Althouse said...

I think the poll is skewed by the failure to name an opponent. It's one thing to say replace this governor, quite another to say I prefer Kathleen Falk (or Tom Barrett). Who would you prefer: Walker or Falk? That's not going to get 52% for Falk.

I don't get this "failure to name an opponent."

Falk declared her candidacy on January 18, 2012. The Rasmussen poll was conducted on March 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports.

Even though the question didn't refer to Falk, that was plenty of time for "likely voters" to figure out that Falk was the strongest declared candidate. In fact, the results of a Marquee University poll conducted March 22-25 showed this:

If Tom Barrett does not decide to run:
Kathleen Falk 54%
Doug LaFollette 15%
Kathleen Vinehout 12%
Don’t know 18%

I might look for an uptick in favor of the Democrats if Tom Barrett had declared before the Rasmussen poll was taken, but Barrett didn't declare until after the Rasmussen poll--on March 30.

Seven Machos said...

I don't get this "failure to name an opponent."

So, by your own reckoning, 46 percent of Democrats don't support the likely Democrat.

You are an idiot, dude. There is nothing more to say.

leslyn said...

Skippy said:

Is a two percent change a huge shift, one of statistical significance or validity?

It's not a two percent change. The previous poll showed only 47% in favor of recall.

The current Rasmussen poll has a 4.5% margin of error, and a 95% level of confidence, according to Rasmussen.

leslyn said...

Zachary Paul Sire said...

I don't know why you always cite these Rasmussen polls. Over and over and over and over again. "According to Rasmussen..." Regardless of how you feel about their findings, it's a notoriously biased polling organization.

From what I found, pundits think Rasmussen is a right-leaning poll:

Nate Silver, New York Times; Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, Fox News; The Washington Post; TIME magazine; Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who co-developed Pollster.com; rightwingnews.com; etc. The Wall Street Journal has said Rasmussen is one of the most accurate polling firms.

leslyn said...

Seven Machos said...

I don't get this "failure to name an opponent."

So, by your own reckoning, 46 percent of Democrats don't support the likely Democrat. You are an idiot, dude. There is nothing more to say.
According to Rasmussen, the projected results for the Wisconsin Republican primary Tuesday are:

WI-2012 Primary: 44% Romney, 34% Santorum, 7% Gingrich 7% Paul (Rasmussen 3/29).

So that means out of three candidates (the same number as Wisconsin in the Marquette poll), 50% don't support the likely Republican.

Dude.

damikesc said...

If he is recalled, WI deserves everything this will cause. Sure, he eliminated the deficit and cut property taxes...he wasn't nice to union goons who are calling all WI citizens greedy jerks.

edutcher said...

I think Ann's point is on the money. Things tighten up with a specific opponent.

Looks like this is close to the MOE.

a psychiatrist who learned from veterans said...

Depressing. Did you see the gender gap, Obama v. Romney?

Try again. The spread among women on that poll was 41% Demo, 24% Republican, and it was registered voters.

The Lefties must be desperate to try something that obvious.

Matthew said...

"Regardless of how you feel about their findings, it's a notoriously biased polling organization."

-- I know, why can't they poll adults with a 45/18/30 split or some nonsense like reputable pollsters.

Oh wait. Those are bad samples... of non-representative populations.

MadisonMan said...

Let the blizzard of ads begin.

Release the ad-Kraken!

And we get to vote today! Wisconsinites vote more than any other state, I'd wager.

Fen said...

Zachary: Regardless of how you feel about their findings, it's a notoriously biased polling organization.

They have the best prediction rate on record.

ie. "its not me, its you"

Fen said...

I think the poll is skewed by the failure to name an opponent.

Agreed. Same problem nationally - Generic Republican beats Obama by significant margin. Actual Republican? Not so much.

Fen said...

has a 4.5% margin of error

Meh. Having worked on campaigns, we don't find a poll credible unless the MOE is 3%

Kinda surprised Ras ran with this one. Methodology is skewed by generics, MOE is too high.

Maybe the generic problem is figured into the MOE, and that's why its so high?

machine said...

"BREAKING: Number of Women Who Support Republicans Dropping Rapidly; Number of Republicans Who Support Women Still Zero"

garage mahal said...

I think the poll is skewed by the failure to name an opponent.

Hahaha. Walker headed in the wrong direction from last month's poll. Uh oh!

Somebody's in trouble!

Curious George said...

Gov. Scott Walker earned two key endorsements Monday, April 2nd in the upcoming recall election. The endorsements come from the Milwaukee Police Association and the Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association.

Jay said...

Um, Barrett is running.

MADISON, Wis. — Unions backing the successful effort that forced Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker into a recall election are suddenly facing an uncomfortable scenario: Their favored candidate may not survive the Democratic primary now that Milwaukee’s mayor is looking for a gubernatorial rematch.

Mayor Tom Barrett, who narrowly lost to Walker in the 2010 race for governor, recently jumped into the race to oust the Republican


Which will be funny for the unions considering Barrett used Walker's reforms to save Milwaukee over $20 million dollars.

garage mahal said...

I think it just goes to show you that loony right Waukesha County doesn't reflect the rest of the state by any means.

David said...

Althouse: Falk is not going to be the Democratic nominee, IMHO. But you are right that the better question is person vs. person, not person vs. concept.

Fen said...

Yah, but I'm rethinking the methodology. Generic or not, it still goes to the point - 52% favor recall. The number for an actual Dem opponent may be less, esp if its that idiot woman. But the point remains.

Its an intersting contradiction. 52% support recall, but they may not recall if they don't like his replacement.

This tells me Walker needs to focus on the negatives of his opponent.

AprilApple said...

So Wisconsinites want to screw themselves over again with the leadership of corrupt tax and spend democrats. Short memory.

MadisonMan said...

But you are right that the better question is person vs. person, not person vs. concept.

Well, unless the previous poll actually named someone, you can get information from the two sequential polls that show at best increased ambivalence towards the Walker.

TosaGuy said...

Scott Walker's uptick in polling coincided with the media campaign he ran during the signature portion of the recall. That campaign is currently dormant. When he starts it up again, it will bump him again over 50 percent.

Scott Walker will be very effectiving stumping around the state explaining his message in a very reasonable manner. Meanwhile, the Dems won't be able to resist comparing him to Hitler to the point that even Garage's eyes will roll.

roesch/voltaire said...

What is interesting is that even after all the ads the Walker PACs have run, the blanket coverage by all the right wing radio heads, and the Althouse blog vs not even one ad from Barrett, he and Falk are a point away-- this says a lot about how the average Wisconsin voter feels towards old dead eyes.

Mark said...

No April, Wisconsinites are moderate, get-along people.

Walker broke that, and people realize that a 2 year Gov and split legislature gets us back there.

Recalling Walker is that simple. His money raising story might work for donors and partisans, but in WI we see all his outside donations and his 'out of state unions' line falls increasing flat.

We are sick of it. Walker has kept ads going for 6 months now, more to come. Weekly mailers to me. Radio, TV.

He has made himself part of the problem, just as bad as he accuses his rivals. VTR witch hunts are being talked about, not spring 2011's protests.

bagoh20 said...

To hell with polls. I just need to know what Garage or Sharpton think about any issue for me to know what the truth is. That shit has a no MOE.

So Garage, is Walker going down or not?

Curious George said...

"Mayor Tom Barrett, who narrowly lost to Walker in the 2010 race for governor, recently jumped into the race to oust the Republican"

He lost by almost seven points.

And his police and firemen just came out for Walker. The lefties are going to feel it's Christmas and nothing is under the tree when all this is over.

damikesc said...

I find it amazing a state that brags about its great public education system has so many profoundly stupid people living there.

vet66 said...

Mark; are you saying that when Gov. Walker defends himself by educating the citizenry using the same tactics as the unions and their organizers is wrong? Since outside money is key to the union's power maintenance goals of bleeding the taxpayers dry it is somehow wrong for Gov. Walker to make an issue of that salient point? If WI citizens are "get-along" drones who wish to beggar themselves for inevitable fleecing by the moocher class it is in their best interests to be reminded of their foolishness. Their actions at the polls will drive unemployment numbers up or down depending on how much the want to get along.

Mark said...

vet66 - We aren't `drones'.

Politics of destruction is not something we are fond of here.

My sister was not unhappy with most of what Walker did ... yet will not be voting for him.

Keeping Walker will keep this nastiness. It's a two year term and a split senate, whoever is elected holds little power except to divide us more.

We're not drones, Walker did the majority of his agenda. Many families have serious division due to politics. Do we want more of the same division with zero results?

That's all Walker can promise. Senate is split, with multiple seats up for recall. When mining died, so did his agenda.

He doesn't have much to sell ...

damikesc said...

Keeping Walker will keep this nastiness.

Translation: If we give in to the mob, maybe they will get us last.

Cowardice seldom works out well.

You sister actually believes the nastiness is all because of Walker so she will vote for the people recalling him?

You don't paint her in a terribly flattering light.

Can you go ahead and explain why a conservative should ever abide by a Democrat government ever again? If we disagree with them, isn't it THEIR fault? Shouldn't they be penalized?

Curious George said...

Mark said...
No April, Wisconsinites are moderate, get-along people.

Walker broke that, and people realize that a 2 year Gov and split legislature gets us back there.

Recalling Walker is that simple. His money raising story might work for donors and partisans, but in WI we see all his outside donations and his 'out of state unions' line falls increasing flat.

We are sick of it. Walker has kept ads going for 6 months now, more to come. Weekly mailers to me. Radio, TV.

He has made himself part of the problem, just as bad as he accuses his rivals. VTR witch hunts are being talked about, not spring 2011's protests."

First, what a bunch of bullshit. We are not a "moderate get along people". That's fucking crap. We are made up of all political bents. What says "moderate" about Madison? And this recall is about nothing more than a bunch of selfish public workers wanting free shit, and lefties wanting their agenda. Like they did under Doyle. Where was the compromise in the last eight years?

You're gonna lose. Call us when you finally want to "get along" with that. Until then, fuck off.

Mark said...

Goodbye Althouse.

I've had enough of the Curious George's of this blog and their insults.

I'll take his advice and fuck off.

As long as this is the kind of poster you repeatedly welcome, any real discourse is doomed. No reason to waste any more of my time on the blog equivalent of 4chan.

Patrick said...

People realize that a 2 year Gov and split legislature gets us back there.
Mark may have inadvertantly stumbled upon a truism, although he and the other recall supporters most likely don't realize it. Lets say that Falk get elected to serve out the remainder of the Governor's term. There will not be a repeal of Act 10 forthcoming from a GOP Assembly, so Falk vetoes the budget, per her promise to her union paymasters. Under Wisconsin law, the previous budget is in continuance if a new budget isn't passed. So the same budget we have now will continue. But there will be no Walker. That means peace, right Mark?

leslyn said...

Seven Machos said...

I don't get this "failure to name an opponent."

So, by your own reckoning, 46 percent of Democrats don't support the likely Democrat

You are an idiot, dude. There is nothing more to say.


Projections by Rasmussen are the following in the Wisconsin primary today:

Romney, 44%
Santorum, 34%
Gingrich, 7%
Paul, 7%

So, by my reckoning, 48% of Republicans don't support the likely Republican.

Dude.

leslyn said...

Curious George said...

Gov. Scott Walker earned two key endorsements Monday, April 2nd in the upcoming recall election. The endorsements come from the Milwaukee Police Association and the Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association.

What I find interesting is that it occurred (presuming that it's true) the first business day after the federal district court judge decided the union lawsuit against Walker. The unions won certain rights back because the State Patrol's union, which had endorsed Walker, was treated differently than all other state unions by retaining those same rights.

Now here's what I found curious, George, in Act 10 (also known as the "Budget Repair Bill")--all union rights were also retained for municipal police and firefighters. What has that got to do with the state budget?

So, you had one class of employees, the State Patrol, who were treated differently and had also endorsed Walker, and municipal police and firefighters who were also treated differently, and had also endorsed Walker.

Curiouser and curiouser.

I say that the "municipal" employees endorsed Walker because Milwaukee is far and away the state's largest city, and so their police and firefighter union membership is far larger than any other municipality's. They are the significant "municipal" union membership.

It's all just politics. Nothing to be surprised at. Just--interesting.

Mark said...

Yes, Patrick.

The Union people will have nothing to complain about, the nasty Walker-defenders will be gone ... and things stay the same in terms of our state's course. No changes, except in who sits in the office.

The cat is out of the bag.
It's not going back in.

Voting in a short-term governor with a divided legislature keeps the political status quo.

For most people, that's a win.

Seven Machos said...

Les -- You complete and dumb ass: show us the poll that cites unnamed Republican with 54 percent of the vote. Then you can make the argument you are so feebly making, and I will agree with you.

I am so sad for you. Life is hard. It's harder if you are stupid.

neomom said...

Mark -

You really think the left and the unions will stop complaining if Walker is voted out but they don't get their goodies back?

You are incredibly naive.

And it isn't the nasty Walker supporters. It is the nasty anti-Walker folks.

They killed the puppy of a Dane County woman because she had a Stand with Walker sign (there is no greater Dane County apostasy than being conservative).

They are the ones that want to silence all speech they do not agree with. See the attacks against the kids from Sheboygan Lutheran when they had the audacity to come to Madison for a basketball tournament. A former friend of mine that lives in Madison said that the folks that held the Tea Party had all those insults and shout-downs coming because they should have had their rally someplace else. Because the Capitol building evidently is only for liberal residents. In my own family, my sister and I have been informed that we shouldn't say anything because it is offensive to the liberal side. While they bash Walker at family events.

In Fond du Lac, it was an anti-Walker person that pulled up so close to a car with a Stand with Walker sticker at a gas pump that she couldn't get out and then he started shouting at her about being a Walker puppet.

No. Those people will never quit complaining until they get their way. That is what rude children do.

Mark said...

Rude children, says the guy who uses `fuck off' in supposed civil discourse. LMAO.

Please, link me the story of this puppy that was killed.

It should be interesting, as it didn't happen.

Seven Machos said...

What the fuck, Mark? Why are you still here, being a douchebag? I thought you were leaving in a pissy, juvenile huff because Althouse doesn't ban people who disagree with you.

damikesc said...

So Mark what will sis do if Walker is defeated and the barbarians she is voting for...continue to be barbarians? I love the mentality of "he did what he wanted and we needed...so lets toss him." Its a mentality so mind bogglingly absurd that one hopes one is kidding.

Buying peace to succumbing to a mob. Solid plan.

shiloh said...

1) Denial
2) Anger
3) Bargaining
4) Depression
5) Acceptance

WI conservatives, I feel your pain!

Again, not to worry as Althouse's loverboy Walker just made another plea for help to the koch boys. :-P

Curious George said...

"Mark said...
Rude children, says the guy who uses `fuck off' in supposed civil discourse. LMAO."

That was me. Your habit of morphing everyone into a single entity has failed you...again.

BTW, since you are leaving, and we never have the opportunity to talk again, tell your sister she is an idiot too.

Bye.

leslyn said...

leslyn said...

Seven Machos said... I don't get this "failure to name an opponent."

So, by your own reckoning, 46 percent of Democrats don't support the likely Democrat You are an idiot, dude. There is nothing more to say.


Leslyn replied,

Projections by Rasmussen are the following in the Wisconsin primary today:

Romney, 44%
Santorum, 34%
Gingrich, 7%
Paul, 7%

So, by my reckoning, 48% of Republicans don't support the likely Republican.

Dude.


SevenMachos retorted:

Les --You complete and dumb ass: show us the poll that cites unnamed Republican with 54 percent of the vote. Then you can make the argument you are so feebly making, and I will agree with you.

I am so sad for you. Life is hard. It's harder if you are stupid.


Leslyn concludes:

SevenMachos: Apples and oranges. Stick with apples and apples.

Seven Machos said...

Les -- My God. You are incorrigible. I just explained to you that any poll without a named opponent on the other side is suspect. A poll about Walker without a named opponent is no different from a poll about Obama without a named opponent. Both polls will change, likely in favor of Walker and Obama, once an actual opponent materializes.

I am sorry you are a nitwit. But I cannot help you. But go ahead and keep on arguing that polls support your side, because I know it's important for you to believe that you are in the majority.

leslyn said...

Seven Machos:

Both polls I cited--Marquette University and Rasmussen-- compared the percentage of hypothetical votes for named candidates. I did so to answer YOUR criticism.

I am not now going to engage in a different kind of debate with you just because you want me to.

So, I've had it. NO SOUP FOR YOU!

leslyn said...

Seven Machos:

Both polls I cited--Marquette University and Rasmussen-- compared the percentage of hypothetical votes for named candidates. I did so to answer YOUR criticism.

I am not now going to engage in a different kind of debate with you just because you want me to.

So, I've had it. NO SOUP FOR YOU!

Seven Machos said...

Les -- A named candidate is not a nominated candidate. I am sorry that I have to spell out this very obvious distinction for you.

What other semantic tricks do you have before you are done again?