March 13, 2012

Will Romney win in Alabama and Mississippi?

And if he does, is it all over?

UPDATE: Email from CNN: "Rick Santorum will win the Alabama Republican primary, CNN projects. Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are in a close battle for second."

UPDATE 2: Santorum wins Mississippi.

77 comments:

cubanbob said...

1 its to early to tell.
2 now it won't end tonight.

Andy R. said...

Considering how big a joke Santorum is, this shouldn't have been a contest to begin with. Given that, the rational logic that says that because Romney is winning enough individual states and therefore the primary should be over doesn't really apply.

Republicans know how bad a candidate Romney would be, but they can't find any way to get rid of them.

And if Romney actually loses a state to frothy, then all bets are off.

Jason said...

If Newt doesnt win both, he needs to drop out. I believe he even said he would.

Republicans know how bad a candidate Romney would be, but they can't find any way to get rid of them.

Yes, candidates that are polling ahead of the incumbent months before the election are always "bad candidates".

Sheesh.

John Lynch said...

He might, and no it isn't. At least not on the procedural, delegate-counting side. Too many people want to draw this out for it to be over, no matter how obvious a Romney win becomes.

Andy R. said...

Yes, candidates that are polling ahead of the incumbent months before the election are always "bad candidates".

Is that why George Will wrote a column saying that the Republicans should give up on trying to beat Obama?

Is that why an avalanche of Republicans have been calling for a brokered convention to prevent Romney from getting the nomination?

Dose of Sanity said...

I would wager that Romney would prefer Gingrich win instead of himself.

He WANTS Gingrich to hang in there.

wild chicken said...

Romney at least is a presentable candidate. Cleans up real nice. I can't say that about the others..

Crunchy Frog said...

And yet another thread is spoilt.

Exit polls are showing the born again turnout to be abnormally high. It'll be interesting how that splits out between a Mormon, a Catholic, and a... Gingrich.

This is Newt's Last Stand. He needs to win (or finish a close second to Mitt) today to regain any momentum. If Santorum outpolls him, he's finished. Whatever money he has will quickly dry up.

Who could have possibly predicted that Santorum would have emerged as the Last Conservative Standing at the beginning of the campaign? What a weird year.

Andy R. said...

Romney at least is a presentable candidate. Cleans up real nice. I can't say that about the others..

Frothy is pre-modern and Gingrich isn't even pretending he is serious about being President.

Jason said...

Is that why George Will wrote a column saying that the Republicans should give up on trying to beat Obama?

Is that why an avalanche of Republicans have been calling for a brokered convention to prevent Romney from getting the nomination?


I stopped listening or reading George Will a long, long time ago. I chuckle every time I see a Dem supporter rip a conservative columnist for writing a piece they disagree with, then point to the same column as gospel when they write something that goes against the GOP.

And I would like to know who this "avalanche" of Republicans are who are calling for a brokered convention. This brokered convention talk has only been seriously done by two groups - media types who want some excitement at the conventions, and Dems who want to keep the focus off Obama.

I find it funny how so many media types and Dems think this GOP primary is so drawn out, when just 4 short years ago Hillary Clinton didnt drop out of the Dem primary until June when Obama crossed the delegate count he needed.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

It will be far from over. If Gingrich (snicker snicker) wins a state he stays in and the race continues. If Gringrich loses he will probably (and should) drop out.

If Gingrich is gone then it's a two man race. That will be very interesting. Will the anti-Romney Repubs rally around Santorum or hold their nose and vote Romney to end the race?

No way the race ends tonight.

Andy R. said...

I'm going to a noise demonstration at the jail. Will someone text me if frothy gets more than 0.1% of the vote so I can come back and laugh at all the rubes?

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Hey Andy

You never answer my question. How can you support a candidate that hates the gays?

edutcher said...

Milton should take Mrs Pissy and split AL.

He'll take HI and Samoa, so he'll probably do better delegate-wise than whoever wins AL.

But, no, it won't be over until the end of April when a lot of the big city states get their shot. He will probably take them handily (including PA) and then it should be pretty much over.

No brokered convention.

Andy R. said...

And if Romney actually loses a state to frothy, then all bets are off.

Somebody tell Hatman to get his head out of his froth. Santorum's already won a couple of states.

(Hatman really is an idiot)

chickenlittle said...

Andy R. said...
I'm going to a noise demonstration at the jail.

Will they scream for ice cream?

cubanbob said...

Of course being a pimp for the party of asses Andy doesn't see the irony that his comments really are a reflection on the current state of the party of asses.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Yuck!

I was curious why Andy calls Santorium "frothy". That was a mistake. Do gays really think that kind if thing helps their cause?

chickenlittle said...

Bill, Republic of Texas said...
Yuck!

FWIW, I suspect that Andy R is a ruse. He intends to incite reaction in order to bring out first responders. Think of him in abstract terms: he's like a giant negative point charge which attracts oppositely charged commenters.

Why?

He/she gets off on it and it's also a way of drawing out and judging the strengths of your enemies.

Just a hypothesis. But Andy R has never been able to defend his positions rationally so there's that.

Writ Small said...

Yuck

"Frothy" is the rhetorical equivalent of a glitter bomb. Gay men seem to think it's super cool and dramatic. In reality it's ineffectual - except if you get some in your eyes.

Writ Small said...

On topic, if he wins then, yes, it's over. Will he? Too close to call.

edutcher said...

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Yuck!

I was curious why Andy calls Santorium "frothy". That was a mistake. Do gays really think that kind if thing helps their cause?


They're so arrogant about it, I don't think they care.

Actually Bill is on to it. As I've said, a lot of the people who are for same sex marriage and homosexual rights have only seen the "Will and Grace" view of homosexuality.

When see stuff like the Castro and learn what people like Hatman and Dan Savage are like and what they really want, opinion will start to change.

Harsh Pencil said...

New rule. If silly hat boy is in a thread, I'm not reading it.

But one last thought: Hat boy, I thought frothy was a good thing? You know, the outcome of such a wonderful act!

rcocean said...

He might win both with 30 percent of the vote. Which is absurd.

pm317 said...

rcocean said...

He might win both with 30 percent of the vote. Which is absurd.
-----------------

Yeah, it is absurd because the other two losers are saying 'you quit', 'no, you quit'..

Cedarford said...

I heard many gay guys get right down and rim their partner right after - gobbling up the frothy mixture of lube, fecal matter, and semen.

Not that there is anything WRONG with that!!

After all, gays tell us that all gay sex acts are healthy and normal and should be applauded and not Hated by the Hating Haters!!

shiloh said...

So, will mittens be eating cheesy grits tonight?

Don't know 'bout y'all, but the suspense is ...

Who knew AL/MS could be so exciting. :-P It's like they're both competing for last place in state education and first place in obesity.

Oh wait! At least AL has college football to hang its hat on lol, but poor MS.

I ♥ Willard said...

Willard is currently third in both states. :(

Hoosier Daddy said...

"... I was curious why Andy calls Santorium "frothy". That was a mistake. Do gays really think that kind if thing helps their cause?.."

Well when I finally learned what it meant I was changed my mind to think, yeah, there really is something wrong with that.

shiloh said...

Alabama:
Romney + Super PAC: $1.66 million
Santorum + Super PAC: $319K

Mississippi
Romney + Super PAC: $973K
Santorum + Super PAC: $307K

One would think because of the education status in both states, negative advertising would have more of an effect, voter's attention level notwithstanding.

(((If))) Santo wins both states and gingrich succumbs to his futility :D would Newt's sugar daddy, Sheldon Adelson, start funding Santorum.

Did I mention this is ever so exciting! :)

ricpic said...

Does anyone vote for anyone because they fake a liking for grits or say y'all? At least when Romney said that competing in the South was like playing an away game he showed a smidgen of honesty, for which he deserved and might have gotten the respect of a Southerner. But who likes a panderer?

shiloh said...

Considering how much trouble the Rep party has been having counting votes this primary season and now were dealing w/AL & MS ;) ... this could take a while.

Jason said...

So...what will get more play tonight? The primary results, or the news out this evening that the CBO has doubled the cost of ObamaCare? (We're now up to $1.76 trillion over 10 years...thats trillion with a T).

shiloh said...

Intrade currently has Santo winning both states, but it's early y'all.

shiloh said...

MSNBC just called AL for Santo ...

Willard weeps!

Cedarford said...

To me, though, the greatest gay activist feat of propaganda was how they spun the Catholic church scandal.

A too-tolerant Catholic church allowed very sexually active gay priests to "administer to their flocks."
This led of course to the priests dying off in large numbers in the gay AIDs epidemic...and allowed the chickenhawk gays to spot and recruit gay teenagers..and be quitely moved from parish to parish when some pederastly surfaced on teen complaints and legal settlements also quietly done.

The great feat of the gay propagandists was to 'reframe it" as having nothing to do with the priests being gay...but the clever alliterative "pedophile priests" label they slapped on it swept the media.
Even though there was no significant fraction of smooth-skinned little boy "chickens" they were feasting on, (no girls BTW) that happened to be under 12. All mostly willing gay adolescent boys of the "rent boy" sort.

The media played along with the gay agenda.
What happened in the RCC was told to the public as victimizing prepubescent "children" and the vile perps were not gay, but some magical "don't care what gender their target is" kiddie pervs.

Then the gay activists and eager liberal atheists and progressive Jewish leaders in the media doubled down and proclaimed this "pedophile priest scandal" showed the moral bankruptcy of intolerant Christians over the morally superior persecuted gays.

Andy R. said...

WHAT'S GOING ON?!

~N. said...

So...female victims of priest sexual abuse just don't exist...?

shiloh said...

Please, let's not talk about sexually deviant, perverted priests on a night when devout Catholic Santo wins (2) southern states.

Writ Small said...

Given the delagate math, in order for Santorum to have a realistic chance to win the nomination outright, he cannot do it with narrow victories in states extremely favorable to him - especially where delegates are appointed proportionally.

This month was always going to be tough for Romney given the states involved, but as long as he can keep it close until his strong states return, he's on a glide path.

That said, gratz to Santorum and his supporters tonight.

Titus said...

What is Samoa Islands like?

I ♥ Willard said...

Willard loses badly in Alabama and Mississippi. The Professor and I are distraught. :(

Dose of Sanity said...

@ Writ - don't overlook the real victory for Santorum tonight. Gingrich will most likely drop out.

Then ALL bets are off, especially if Newt endorses Rick.

somefeller said...

Once again, Santorumania strikes! Sacre Santorum!

shiloh said...

"@ Writ - don't overlook the real victory for Santorum tonight. Gingrich will most likely drop out.

Then ALL bets are off, especially if Newt endorses Rick."

And Newt hands over his delegates as Obama sits back and smiles! :) while eating hominy grits w/arugula. :)

jrberg3 said...

"Republicans know how bad a candidate Romney would be, but they can't find any way to get rid of them. "

So is it your contention that the evangelicals that are pulling the lever for Santo will not pull it for Romney in the general?

Jason said...

@ Writ - don't overlook the real victory for Santorum tonight. Gingrich will most likely drop out.

Then ALL bets are off, especially if Newt endorses Rick


How is that going to help Santorum at all?

Even if Santorum wins Mississippi, which is still up in the air, Romney still has double the delegates that Santorum has.

We're past the "endorsement" stage. Now, its all about math. And I fail to see how Santorum even gets close to Romney in the delegate count, especially with the number of east coast states still left.

America's Politico said...

America's Politico died tonight. Tonight is the night where Santorum became the nominee (and Newt as his VP).

Tonight is also the night when Obama-Biden won the re-election.

RIP: America's Politico

Canuck said...

"And Newt hands over his delegates as Obama sits back and smiles! :) while eating hominy grits w/arugula. :)"

grits w/ arugula. actually ate that once in Chapel Hill with some spicy ginger ale.

re: presidential election. It's too early for daily or weekly polls. Look at monthly trend lines.

Dukakis was ahead of Bush I in polls in March.

“Annabeth:My fatal flaw. That's what the Sirens showed me. My fatal flaw is hubris.
Percy: the brown stuff they spread on veggie sandwiches?
Annabeth:No, Seaweed Brain. That's HUMMUS. hubris is worse.
Percy: what could be worse than hummus?"

Dose of Sanity said...

@ Jason

Newt's delegates would most likely switch to Santorum then.

Furthermore, they stop splitting the votes - if ALL of them went to Santorum, thats something like 60-30 (with the remaining 10 for Paul). Romney could get blown out.

@America's Politico - my conclusion as well if Gingrich drops out.

Hagar said...

This is weird.
van Susteren just showed a clip of an ad Obama is running attacking - Sarah Palin?

Joe said...

Alabama and Mississippi are not winner take all states. Santorum may have won, but Romney still walks away with delegates. Moreover, there are winner take all states coming up, like California, that Santorum will very likely lose.

Titus said...

He lost the Red Neck Riviera. The diehards hate him. Even though he spent twice as much as the other two combined.

They are not stupid and know he is a phony. Sorry Mitty you just aren't that interesting.

And did Althouse say in a posting she loved Mittins? Wow, that is something you don't hear very often.

Joe said...

Romney could get blown out.

Very slim possibility. Run the numbers. Romney could get beat, but the percentages favor Romney. All he needs are 42% of the remaining delegates and he's likely to win a few winner-take-all states, like Utah and, I'd guess, California and probably Wisconsin and Maryland.

edutcher said...

Doubt Newt will bail.

This has been a vanity project from day 1.

And Milton finishes a competitive third and takes a fair share of the delegates.

Again.

Hagar said...

This is weird.
van Susteren just showed a clip of an ad Obama is running attacking - Sarah Palin?


War on Women.

This will not end well for the Demos.

Roux said...

It's funny how a southerner like Bill Clinton can go north and win everyone over but a yankee like Mitt just sounds stupid to us hicks from the south.

sunsong said...

Obama will easily slaughter Santorum! The wannabe theocrats will get what they deserve, imo.

How hard is it to understand that it is NOT your place to impose your religion on others?

Quayle said...

Evangelicals seethe hatred for Mormons, and Obama and the left are the beneficiaries.

Dane County Taxpayer said...

Santorum is the only conservative candidate left in this race. Romney is Obamalite and is a total joke I won't vote for him. Effete college town "Republicans" like the professor look down on real conservatives like those in Miss and Alabama, but they are the true patriots.

Go Rick!!!

Saint Croix said...

Gingrich will most likely drop out.

No. He wants a brokered convention. He thinks he might be able to grab the nomination by giving an awesome speech.

If Newt drops out, then there will be no brokered convention. Somebody will win it. And that might be Santorum.

So Newt will stay in to

a) hold on for a brokered convention and
b) keep Santorum from being the Republican nominee

Newt's view on this is that Santorum is a bad risk. He could easily lose to Obama.

So Newt will stay in, keeping his candidacy alive, hoping for a brokered convention.

But if Mitt wins the nomination, Newt is okay with that.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

So, will mittens be eating cheesy grits tonight?

Interesting. It is amusing to the libs to try to be condescending and discuss 'cheesy grits' as some sort of lower class declasse type of food......when polenta with parmesan cheese (which is basically the same thing)is served in the finest restaurants in liberal land.

I guess it is all in a name and who is calling the names.

Polenta, grits .....whatever floats your boat.

Dane County Taxpayer said...

You are all anti-south bigots!

Joe said...

Santorum is the only conservative candidate left in this race

No, Santorum is the only SOCIAL conservative left in this race. He's quite fiscally liberal and his views on personal liberty are problematic at best.

Dane County Taxpayer said...

Santorum is an all around true conservative. That is why libs disrespect him so.

crosspatch said...

Those are open primary states. I'm willing to bet a lot of those Santorum votes are Democrats.

Writ Small said...

@Dose - You could be right about a Newt dropout shaking up the race. My friends who are Newt supporters all tell me Romney is their second choice, but that's anecdotal and they very well could be humoring me!

@Saint - I've made this point months back, but Republicans have an almost unbroken records of nominating the guy who finished second that last time around. 2016 is the best reason for Newt keep running. On the other hand we’ve seen Newt display quite the range of emotions. The calm Newt might gracefully back out after some reflection.

Steve Koch said...

The single most important factor in predicting how well Mitt does in a state's GOP primary is the percentage of Evangelicals in the state. Lots of Evangelicals mean Mitt will do poorly. I'm guessing that Bama and Miss. have more than their fair of Evangelicals.

In November, Mitt will still win these Evangelical votes because they would rather vote for a Mormon than a Muslim (according to an Evangelical friend of mine).

shiloh said...

DBQ

Wasn't denigrating cheese grits, only makin' fun of mittens cringeworthy pandering.

Andy R. said...

I live in the south and cheese grits are fantastic.

MadisonMan said...

What Joe said at 10:28.

Santorum lost the PA Senate race because he was Mr. Earmark, and because he wants the Govt intruding into all manner of personal decisions it has no business intruding in.

Kirby Olson said...

I wanted to see Ron Paul in a grass skirt in AMerican Samoa wooing delegates.

leslyn said...

Go Ricky-Boy!!

Dante said...

Looks like the answer is "No." I suppose there is no celebrating on Ann's blog tonight. BTW, how's the "Hopey changey" thing working out for you?

I see ten years of BO's health care cost is going to cost $1.76T, not the $900B he claimed.

Carnifex said...

I am shocked, just shocked, that something the big O said about his Obamacare was a lie!.

Leave it to the pansies of Chapell Hill to ruin grits by serving it with arugala.(maybe they'll hang another banner for it it{Helm's ref}if you don't know, you don't know bball)

As far as the evangelicals voting for Mittens, yes they will, like a tidal wave, if Mittens wins the nomination. Ain't no one handed it to him yet.

Prayer to God...please, please let Americas Politico be telling the truth(about it being the end of Americas Politico).

As and anecdote for people making fun of cheesy grits. I've worked all over the country, from Mass. to Colo., and the only time, the onliest time, I ever got a bad meal at Cracker Barrel was in Albany NY. You have to really try hard to eff up a Cracker Barrel meal to make it taste bad.

edutcher said...

Milton finishes the night with the most delegates (42) after an even split in the South and taking the Pacific.

So, no big change.

PS Carnifex, The Blonde got underdone chicken at CB a couple of times, but, yeah, they get it right usually.

Roger J. said...

Looks like Mr Romney maintains a significant lead in delegates--the only figure that counts--and given, as was pointed out above, the remaining states will most liekly favor Mr Romney. As for a brokered convention, I cant recall when the last time there was one. It would be great fun to watch.

MadisonMan said...

The Editorial Cartoon today was great. Santorum holding a placard that said It's the Condom, Stupid with two elephants in the background saying Do you get the feeling we've gone off-message?

Hoosier Daddy said...

"... Looks like Mr Romney maintains a significant lead in delegates.."

If Newt and Paul dropped out today and handed Santorum their delegates, Mitt still holds a small lead.

My guess is Paulites would lean toward Romney. Santorum can only carry the evangelical crowd. A rabid social conservative is no better than a rabid social liberal.

In any event once we hit $5 gallon gas, God, vaginas and abortions wont be the motivating factors anymore. If they ever really were.