December 31, 2011

The last Iowa poll before the caucuses...

... puts Romney on top, at 24%. Ron Paul's in second place, with 22%, and Santorum's in third, with 15%. That's a 4-day poll, but:
If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%.

34 comments:

edutcher said...

Considering Newt and Perry are right behind in all the polls, the field is still very fluid.

Probably 4 tickets out of Des Moines, not 3.

Patrick said...

Ron Paul voters = ostrich voters. Head in the sand to the implications of their support. Santorum? Who would support him? he was a 20 point loser in his home district.

deepelemblue said...

Just what we need, Santorum putting Paul down so Mittens can alienate the social cons (by taking on Santorum as the new "anti-Romney") and in the general be the target of the kind of ads Kennedy used to destroy him in 1994.

Seriously the GOP couldn't have gotten Papa Bush to run? He's only 992 years old and he's still head and shoulders above all the candidates.

Andy R. said...

Rick Santorum will not be the Republican candidate for President in 2012.

Ron Paul will not be the Republican candidate for President in 2012.

Rick Perry will not be the Republican candidate for President in 2012.

Newt Gingrich will not be the Republican candidate for President in 2012.

Carol_Herman said...

A WASTE OF TIME IS ON TOP!

And, if you were looking at this as an "olympic event" ... you'd see the GOP running 3rd ... looking at the "bronze."

I still think Donald Trump, seeing an opportunity ... on par with what Napoleon saw ... when the crown of france floated by ...

Will "announce" on May 21st. And, run as an Independent.

His slogan will be: WE MEAN BUSINESS.

Obviously, some GOP kiesters also need to be kicked out.

As to New Hampshire. THIS IS MITT ROMNEY'S HOME STATE!

Michelle Bachmann? She comes from Iowa. She's not even making it to 3rd place.

Andy R. said...

Also, do you guys think the full on panic and buyers remorse over Romney will start before or after he officially has the nomination. I think before.


Although it will be fun watching Romneybot trying to act human.

el polacko said...

how do these polls affect the coffee klatches, usually stuffed with bussed-in churchfolk, that they call 'caucuses' in iowa?

Ann Althouse said...

What's the problem? Mitt Romney will be the nominee, and he completely deserves it. He will in all likelihood win, and I think he'll be a great President.

A toast! To Mitt Romney! On New Year's Eve!

Andy R. said...

I don't think he'll win, and I don't think he'll be a good president if he does, but I guess we'll see.

Andy R. said...

Considering Newt and Perry are right behind in all the polls, the field is still very fluid.

Is "fluid" slang for every candidate except Romneybot being a total joke?

I know the Republican insiders had to make it seem like this was actually up in the air and that one of the joke candidates had a chance to beat Romneybot so it wouldn't seem like all the idiots and extremists in the Republican party weren't being ignored like they are every four years, but I didn't realize the rubes actually fell for it.

LilEvie said...

24% is a floor, not a ceiling.

I'll drink to that!

Andy R. said...

The one consistent part of the Republican primary is that 70 yo 75% of the Republican party has been strongly committed to Anyone But Romney.

What do they think is going to happen when he gets nominated?

Maguro said...

The one consistent part of the Republican primary is that 70 yo 75% of the Republican party has been strongly committed to Anyone But Romney.

What do they think is going to happen when he gets nominated?


Yeah, just like all the Hillary supporters sat out the 2008 election because they were so mad about whatever it was they were mad about.

There's still 10 months til the election, hat dude. Plenty of time yet.

Seven Machos said...

Poor Andy.

Don't nominate Romney! He's terrible. You Republicans must listen to me! I occupy stuff!

D. said...

happy new years to mittens and the cocktail party

TerriW said...

AndyR:

Many a moon ago, my brother worked on Harkin's (no, really) campaign in Iowa, NH & SD, and I recall him telling me that "everyone" supported ABC: Anyone But Clinton.

I wonder how that turned out for them?

Andy R. said...

Don't nominate Romney! He's terrible. You Republicans must listen to me!

Do you think that I don't want Romney to get the nomination?

Seven Machos said...

Yes.

Andy R. said...

Yes

You're incorrect. I said this a while ago on another post: "Even though [Romney] will be the toughest opponent for Obama, I think most liberals still hope he wins [the primary] because any other candidate would be such a total disaster for the country."

I'm one of the liberals that believes that.

Jess said...

@AndyR:
What do they think is going to happen when he gets nominated?

I dunno - maybe 100W incandescent bulbs for everyone?

edutcher said...

Andy R. said...

Considering Newt and Perry are right behind in all the polls, the field is still very fluid.

Is "fluid" slang for every candidate except Romneybot being a total joke?


The only jokes are running for re-election at the national level this year.

Sue D'Nhym said...

All but the name remains the same. Seriously, the same posts, different day, different name, same shit.

Andy R. said...

Can someone tell edutcher that all the joke candidates besides Romneybot are just protest votes?

It's getting awkward and weird and embarrassing watching him go on like this.

America's Politico said...

If Romney wins the nomination for the GOP, and he selects a great VP (who can bring rest of the GOP to form a strong coalition with independents, such as Jindal of LA or Christie of NJ), then that will be a havoc (major headache) for Obama, Biden, Reid. I mean, they will lose WH and Senate.

Thus, it is vital that Romney be the nominee. It is vital that we defeat Paul, Perry, and Newt, as early as humanly possible. Paul is a lunatic with bad/ugly writings. He should not even be in the competition. Newt is over-rated. Perry is still an infant in politics.

Romney is the best candidate we have got. He needs a good VP and we are back in business at the WH.

write_effort said...

I heard a former Gingrich associate from Georgia on NPR several weeks back. He seemed quite ready to dish on Gingrich's second wife before Bob Edwards (?) cut him off. He did get in that political insiders think Santorum is weird.

Jess said...

Posting from the wrong account, AP?

Simon said...

A friend asked what I'd do if I was voting in Iowa. Starting from the premise that one wants Romney to win the nomination, the first question is whether I thought Romney could win Iowa, and I shall not speculate on that point (if I was voting in Iowa, I would have a better sense of how things stood). If he can, that's great—vote for Romney, because a victory there after months in which everyone knew that Romney would lose Iowa would help lock up the nomination faster. If he can't, then it's a different game. If Romney can't win Iowa, the next most valuable outcome is for a non-viable candidate to win Iowa—Santorum, Paul, someone like that—because that denies the momentum of an Iowa win to a viable alternative to Romney. If Gingrich wins Iowa, for example, it's possible that the other candidates drop out and buoyed by the Iowa momentum, opposition to Romney unites around him. Thus the two most productive outcomes of Iowa are Romney winning or the winner being someone around whom opposition to Romney can't cohere. That would lead me to vote either for Romney if he can win, or, if he can't, for the non-viable candidate who is most likely to win Iowa and for whom I can vote with the fewest concientious objections: Santorum.

Primaries are not about keeping one's hands clean. They're about game theory and best available outcomes.

Andy R. said...

People need to be told by political insiders that Santorum is weird. What's wrong with you people?

edutcher said...

Andy R. said...

Can someone tell edutcher that all the joke candidates besides Romneybot are just protest votes?

So many protest votes the Demos are worried about states like NY, WV, and PA.

Reagan missed a clean sweep by 5000 votes in MN.

Maybe the R nominee will make it.

Simon said...

edutcher said...
"Reagan missed a clean sweep by 5000 votes in MN. ¶ Maybe the R nominee will make it."

No. Obama's unpopular with a lot of Democrats, but they're the Democrats most committed to voting for the Democratic nominee for President, so they'll fall in line. The Greenwalds and Krugmans of the world will whine and moan, but they'll vote for him anyway. The states with larger percentages of Democrats (including "stealth democrats"—IINOs) will vote for Obama. In the states where a united GOP can win with the support of a slight majority of independents, Obama will lose to long as we nominate someone palatable to independents. It's unfortunate that many Republicans believe that our antipathy for Obama is reflected in America at large.

shiloh said...

"same posts, different day, different name, same shit."

Sue, welcome to the wondrous world of political blogging as it hasn't changed much from the days of Usenet. Only the candidates names have changed and of course mittens political issue positions have changed on a daily basis ...

Leave it to mittens to continually keep the perpetual bloom on the rose. :D

Peter Hoh said...

I've read that the pollsters are contacting those they consider to be likely Republican caucus goers. If so, they may have no way of estimating how many Paul supporters will show up on Tuesday, since one doesn't need to be a registered Republican to participate in the Iowa caucus.

If there were a liberal version of Limbaugh, he'd be pushing Operation Chaos, part 2.

Simon said...

Peter, a Paul victory wouldn't cause chaos, though—it would simply lead to the caucus being dismissed as irrelevant.

Peter Hoh said...

Simon, a Paul win in Iowa won't cause chaos, but if it were followed by a Paul win in New Hampshire and a few other early states, it would become a problem.

I fully expect Romney to be the nominee.

I am comfortable making the prediction that the general election will not be a 1984-style landslide.

I suspect that the election will hinge on Florida and Ohio. Romney can certainly help himself with the former by picking Rubio for his VP.