September 28, 2011

Florida is about to move its primary up to January.

Is that crazy?
Florida's move would directly violate RNC rules that forbid any state other than the first four "carve-out" states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from holding a primary before March 6....

South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly said the Republican Party respects "the rule of law" and called on other states to respect the calendar rules that were laid out by RNC officials in 2010.

Connelly said that if Florida moves into January, it would provoke a stampede to the front of the line as each state tries to maximize its influence in the process.

"If Florida moves, it would create chaos," Connelly said "The calendar would be so compressed that the states that are trying to more relevant, that I don't think it would do any good for them."

94 comments:

Lucius said...

Didn't this happen already?

Fred4Pres said...

I thought they can diregard those delegates.

Still, there is something to be said for having this Iowa New Hampshire thing go away.

Paddy O said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Paddy O said...

Iowa losing its priority means the end of ethanol subsidies, as politicians wouldn't need to pander anymore.

So, win-win for everyone.

Dustin said...

Florida really is such a lame state.

Only politicians have to pretend otherwise.

Texas, California, and NY should simply mandate that their primary is always on the same day as Florida's. That way, Florida will matter less no matter what they do.

Or more realistically, they should rotate the order of primaries by region, and rotate the regions systematically. And states traditionally at the beginning of the contest should be pushed straight to the back. Let's see a primary center on Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Missouri.

It just takes leadership a little patriotism to come up with a fair system, so no wonder we don't have one.

Lucius said...

Ah, but not at the price of perpetual campaigns?

MadisonMan said...

I wonder if this would have happened if McCain was President.

JAL said...

Well I think we could move the primaries up to the first Tuesday in December in odd years.

Decmeber 2011, December 2013, December 20 ...

That way we will never ever get out of campaign mode and nobody will have to do anything.

traditionalguy said...

Citizen Cain won the Florida straw poll in a landslide, so by all means this is the only thing to do based upon principle...the principle being that to the early winner go campaign donations.

Yes Florida Cain.

JAL said...

Rotate the first primary state(s).

Spread it around.

Love New Hampshire, but why?

wv quatr
Takes 4 of these to make a dollar in New Hampshire.

EDH said...

Florida looks like a penis.

I wonder what state came up with that idea first?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I wish they would move the primaries FORWARD to August or something.

We have too much campaigning as it is now. Perpetual campaigning

Paddy O said...

I like Dustin's rotation idea.

That chaos could be formed by one state thinking, and asserting, it is actually equal to another in priority is itself absurd.

Give every state a chance.

edutcher said...

One primary.

For the whole country.

In May.

Or June.

Fred4Pres said...

Florida will be ignored.

Yes, despite its shape, it is a woman.

Carol_Herman said...

50 States. One State, Iowa, and another state, New Hampshire, has tried to box the nation IN.

When primaries started ... they were really state affairs.

Now the internal workings of the GOP know, for sure, they have a problem.

Florida' been a ballgame changer ... since John Quincy Adams, who came in second to Old Hickory, Andrew Jackson ... went into collusion with Henry Clay ... the STRONG Speaker of the House ... to toss out the election results (circa 1828 or 1832) ... with an electoral college vote box from Florida.

Now Florida hosts all the middle-class immigrants that fled Cuba, back around 1955. ALL OF THEM WERE BUSINESSMEN, LAWYERS, AND DOCTORS! They created "backwater" Florida (from Golden Girls "territory") ... to a blossoming engine of productivity.

So, I'm not surprised Florida is moving UP it's Primary voting day. (Iowa's is in the sumnmer! No one pays attention to politics during the summer.)

And, as another poster posted yesterday ... back in 2008, the "front runners" for the pubbies were #1: Guiliani. And, #2: Fred Thompson.

HORSES FADE. PEOPLE FADE.

What you're watching is very fluid.

Carol_Herman said...

Usually, an incumbent is a shoe-in.

This time? Perhaps, not so much.

But, ya know. Back in 1995, Newt Ginrich thought "impeaching Bill Clinton in da' House ... would get their nominee elected in 1996. Bob Dole, then said, it was his turn.

Bob Dole fell into the mosh pit.

And, the GOP decided why give up on hate. They'll eventually put in a Milquetoast. Or some gigolo, whose got an outstandingly bad temper. And, no judgement.

Yes. The democraps know NOW that they made a mistake running Algore.

Between the two corrupted parties, it seems the democrats have learned how to "play this game," better.

Obama, meanwhile, needs the media reporting "it's a close and tight race." (Those orgasmic sounds are all faked.)

But if people think Obama is so far ahead ... they wouldn't vote. Why bother?

If all horse races were one by one horse galloping way ahead ... I think the business of horse racing would be finished. But that's just me.

Rick said...

Dustin has it right.
These state Republican parties, all of them who are making a fuss about this, are amazingly short sighted. Could less teamwork be displayed?

edutcher said...

Carol_Herman said...

Usually, an incumbent is a shoe-in.

This time? Perhaps, not so much.


Perhaps????

If things get much worse - and they probably will, he'll be lucky if the Democrats vote for him.

Back when Goldwater ran, there were "Republicans For Johnson". They may call the organization something other than "Democrats For ..." this time around (then again, they may not; they may want voters to think the whole Party isn't made up of crazed ideologues - even though it is), but that's what will happen

Scott M said...

Shades of Michigan/Florida from 2008. I actually watched the Democratic party's televised meeting about that debacle and watched as they completely caved on following through with their rules.

So...the GOP may SAY they will penalize FL by removing delegates, but I'm willing to be they won't back up their own rules with action either.

Revenant said...

All the primaries should be on the same day, in my opinion.

ndspinelli said...

On a more important topic regarding Florida..that being food, I need good restaurants in the Keys. It's my brides 60th and we're heading to the Keys tomorrow. Flying to FLL and then driving the Keys, staying in Key Largo and Key West. So, any restaurants along that route would be appreciated. I've researched but I like personal suggestions better.

purplepenquin said...

Taxdollars shouldn't be used for internal party elections. The entire primary process needs to end, and political parties can choose their own candidates on their own dime.

Geoff Matthews said...

Time to move to a lottery system which picks the order.
Iowa, and New Hampshire, just aren't that important.

SteveR said...

I'm in favor of getting the primary process to not revolve around sucking up to corn interests.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

As a New Hampshire resident, I say go for it. Please. I'm sick of having to put up with campaign signs, mailings, campaign phone calls, and poll phone calls for months before the rest of the country.

save_the_rustbelt said...

The primary system is a farce, with Iowa and NH having way, way too much influence.

Blow it up and start again. Go Florida!

MadisonMan said...

I have no recommendations, ndspinelli, but I hope you have an excellent trip down south!

Vince said...

Make a national primary day-have the candidate chosen because of who she/he is, noit because there is an aura of "frontrunner" about her/him.

Scott M said...

but I hope you have an excellent trip down south

Doesn't a statement like that usually invoke Titus?

Surfed said...

@nedspinelli - one of my faves is Bobalu's about 10 miles to the east of Key West on Big Coppit Key. Yummmmmmm. Wish I was there now. It's an "Old Florida" kinda' place. Cash only. Key Lime pie to die for. Remember, if it's green it ain't a real key lime pie.

Triangle Man said...

@NDSpinelli

I highly recommend The Lorelei in Islamorada.

traditionalguy said...

The political pundits are in a panic today scurrying to pivot from Perry destruction stories and come up with cogent thought about Citizen Cain.

Herman has slowly connected with perfect pitch in all of his speeches and political zingers and the voters have noticed before the race blinded pundits.

So lets hold Florida's vote next week and really get to see a covey of pundits take flight.

The Citizens Tea Party music is playing louder and louder and Herman is their DJ.

Next thing we may hear is the GOP Brahmins talking about postponing silly elections...or at least slowing them down until oppo research has time to dream up some likely smears to falsely paint Herman Cain as ...well, not experienced like our fine rulers are today.

There is always the rumor of Fried Chicken and Water Melon Pizzas.

Triangle Man said...

Florida is more important that the other states. It should be first. Who needs affirmative action for small states? See also, urban versus rural priorities.

Captain Spaulding said...

All states should primary at the same time, and announcing election results early ought to be banned. That would make it fair, and rid us of debacles like what happened in the 2000 general election.

Surfed said...

@nedspinelli - http://www.foodreference.com/html/k-bobalus-restaurant.html

Triangle Man said...

@NDSpinelli

Try Alabama Jacks on the way down to Key Largo. You have to take the scenic route to north Key Largo, but it is a real throwback.

Captain Spaulding said...

...plus, people could stop voting for 'who's electable' based on the previous states' returns and premature announcements by the media.

I can't tell you how many people during the GOP primaries in 2008 told me they were voting for McCain 'because he's more electable' and then explained to me their reasoning based on primary returns in just a few states + what this-or-that talking-head was saying. ugh.

Leland said...

If the point is to give rural states a voice, then do that. Order states by people per square mile, box them in up in say groups of 5, and then create a 10+ week primary with a coupld of bye weeks.

Otherwise, admit that the idea is just a silly notion of tradition.

I do worry about populous states having too much say, but I can't defend Iowa and New Hampshire as lead primary states.

Triangle Man said...

@NDSpinelli

Since your're there for stone crab season, another off-the-beaten-path seafood place on your drive would be Garcia's Seafood Grille & Fish. You're there for stone crab season and this is a good place to get them relatively inexpensively. If you want fancy and expensive, go to Joe's on Miami Beach or Monty's in Coconut Grove.

Chip S. said...

1. It's pointless to propose grand reforms of the primary system (except for purplepenquin's, perhaps), since the whole source of any problems now is that the decisions are made by each of the states independently.

2. With apologies to IgnoranceIsBliss, I think NH's primacy, as it were, is a good thing. It's not a "rural" state at all; most of the people live in former mill towns and work now in light industry. Its tight geography means that "retail" politics is not only possible, but preferable, to a costly media blitz. This gives upstart candidates a fighting chance to win over the big-money boys later.

garage mahal said...

@NDSpinelli
Don't forget to feed the tarpon at Robbies in Islamorada. The Islamorada Fish Company for lunch is working checking out in my opinion. Great blackened dolphin sandwiches

ndspinelli said...

Thanks much Surfed, and Triangle Man..I've checked the menus of your places and they look great. And Surfed, thanks for the key lime heads up.

Now..on an even more important topic than politics or food..baseball. A couple weeks ago the good professor asked about the biggest 2 out, noboby on, comebacks. Well, there was one for the ages last night. Arizona was down 6-1 in the 10th inning. After 2 outs, noboby on base, they scored 6 to win it..on a walk off grand slam. We have an early flight out of Milwaukee so we're going to the Brewer game tonight and staying near the airport. This game means something now! Enjoy baseball fans..pennant races are better than postseason. We could have 2 "play-in" games on Thursday. It's never happened before.

Surfed said...

@ndspinelli - my apologies for the for the "ned".

rhhardin said...

The earlier the decision, the more likely that the choices are bad for the election.

Politicians are bad choices.

Therefore, profit.

kimsch said...

National primary day the first Tuesday after the first Monday in June of any election year.

Declarations for the primary submitted by the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February of any election year.

No campaigning before that.

wv: bugranch - I kid you not.

tree hugging sister said...

Frick. Do it alphabetically.

And I'm from Florida.

ricpic said...

Both Iowa and New Hampshire are so full of bien pensants that a genuine conservative is at a distinct disadvantage in their primaries. I agree with Dustin that Florida's a lame state, but at least the TEA Party candidates stand a chance in that state's primary. So, by all means, move it up!

ndspinelli said...

Garage Mahal thanks..I love blackened fish. Surfed.."you can call me anything you like, just don't call me late for dinner." I won't call you Murph..I bet you hate that!!

Surfed said...

@et al - Florida lame? Absolutely. An it gets even more lame everytime someone from somewhere else moves here. So by my calculations Florida is the lamest state in the United States at this point. Now if everybody who moved here after air conditioning became ubiquitous would just leave and go back to whence they came old Florida could return to it's pre-lame status of being basically rural and cracker. Go home. And that means you. ;-)

Chip S. said...

Both Iowa and New Hampshire are so full of bien pensants that a genuine conservative is at a distinct disadvantage in their primaries.

Bien pensant? Is that French for "liberal"? Cuz it sounds like you want some sort of affirmative action rule for conservatives to determine the order of primary elections.

Carol_Herman said...

Trying to keep up with the times, is hard!

At one time (when we an an "original 13 states") ... You had to campaign by horseback. So, saddle sores limited your distance, I suppose?

Now the "press the flesh stuff" is just silly. Because? Well, because people no longer really know their candidates. They're not local boys. They didn't go to school with them. Their stories weren't told and retold over back fences.

Now, we have the Internet.

And, video streaming.

So a debate ... where you had to make a choice on what you'd watch ... (Before players came around letting you pre-record stuff.)

You were stuck between deciding if you wanted to watch. Or you wanted to watch something else. Or you just wanted to go out to the movies, so you hired a babysitter.

Now? I think the most recent debates got popular for people to watch as "text commentary" streaming. Since it's new ... it has an audience share.

And, the Internet has a way of turning sound bytes VIRAL.

Plus, if anyone watched on HDTV ... I bet "Jim" Perry looked very, very tired.

You know, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin BOTH became favorites on cell phones ... that sent "twitter" and messages that went from being local stops ... to being something you could see around this world.

Messaging in this new medium hasn't quite caught up ... even with the pollsters! They're trying to probe out FAKE POLLS ... where they try to get you to change your mind.

The art of doing this hasn't been found, yet.

Fi8gure it out. Patent it. And, grow rich!

pauldar said...

Wow!! looking forward to the 2016 election. That should start sometime, late next week

Triangle Man said...

Now if everybody who moved here after air conditioning became ubiquitous would just leave and go back to whence they came old Florida could return to it's pre-lame status of being basically rural and cracker. Go home. And that means you. ;-)

Are you pining for Porkys or Woolworths?

Scott M said...

It could be worse, everyone. We could have someone like a sitting governor call for the suspension of elections until the current crisis is over.

Not that anyone in the world has ever tried that, nor have they killed millions.

Mary Beth said...

By what authority can the RNC tell any state when to have an election?

Triangle Man said...

By what authority can the RNC tell any state when to have an election?

The RNC runs the convention. You don't play ball with the RNC, your delegates don't count.

Chip S. said...

@Mary Beth: See Scott M's comment @10:06.

Now, about that business of men ignoring what women say...

Lance said...

How about we hold two primaries/caucuses per week. Smallest states go first. So we start Wyoming and Vermont, followed by North Dakota and Alaska, etc., culminating in the last two weeks with Florida, New York, Texas, and California.

Reasons in favor of this idea:
1. Builds suspense
2. Allows for comeback wins
3. Favors candidates that can engage with all states, not just one or two regions

Reasons against this idea?

ricpic said...

Yes Chip S, bien pensant is French for liberal. But by your own reasoning don't Iowa and New Hampshire give liberals an affirmative action boost in deciding who the Republican candidate will be?

Scott M said...

Reasons against this idea?

Yeah. I don't think the Big 10 needs any more teams.

paminwi said...

Move it around. I am sick to death of having the decision made by the same people in the same states every election season.

deborah said...

@ Revenant...I think it's important to see how candidates perform under the stress of an extended campaign. It would be more fair to rotate the order of the first primaries among the states.

X said...

maybe Florida is just trying to get it in before the democrats try to suspend elections.

Chip S. said...

ricpic--No, that argument does not follow from what I said. It would be true if NH's primary was designated as the first one b/c it was full of RINOs, but that's not the case. Yours is the argument that is based on considerations of "disparate impact."

NH was never chosen to hold the first primary, it was simply one of the first states to innovate by establishing presidential primary elections. And in general elections NH is a swing state; it is far from being a hotbed of liberalism.

I think it serves the interests of the national parties to give disproportional weight in the primary process to voters in swing states, to reduce the chances of nominating someone too extreme to win the general election. Letting the voters in the most conservative states determine the Republican nominee would not necessarily be a good move for the party.

E.M. Davis said...

Taxdollars shouldn't be used for internal party elections. The entire primary process needs to end, and political parties can choose their own candidates on their own dime.

Amen.

Wow, Penguin and I agree on something.

Surfed said...

@triangleman - Been to Porky's. We had sailed up and docked there and went in for a beer. It was also Bike Week in Daytona Bch just to the east of the St Johns river. And who should pull up but the Raging Queens Motorcycle Club. 100 strong, gay and in leather. Not that there's anything wrong with that. They were nice and polite but I was looking cute in my sailor boy outfit so I retreated to my sailboat and continued my journey down river. Old Florida meet new Florida.

Mary Beth said...

The RNC runs the convention. You don't play ball with the RNC, your delegates don't count.

So they think that states should have more control over what goes on within it only when it is the federal government wanting the state to do something but have no problem with it if it's the RNC? That seems to go against what Republicans/conservatives claim they believe in.

Thorley Winston said...

I think long-term the solution is to go to some sort of rotational system for the primaries so that different States gets to go first, second, etc. each election cycle. Until we get to that point, I’m all for Florida and other States going earlier and defying the RNC not to count their delegates’ votes. The system is broken and this may be the best way to forcing the change that is needed.

Thorley Winston said...

Taxdollars shouldn't be used for internal party elections. The entire primary process needs to end, and political parties can choose their own candidates on their own dime.

Agreed and there should not be any taxpayer funding for political conventions, political campaigns or for party leadership (e.g. no additional staff for House and Senate Majority and Minority leaders or whips).

ic said...

Can the GOP "rulers" explain why the carved-outs be first? Why those four? Why not three? Why not 5? Why not schedule the primaries by the number of electoral votes? More votes, more clout, yes? If they want suspense, schedule the primaries in ascending electoral votes order, else descending. Or draw lots to mix things up. Any state can switch its position with a willing state, for a price, of course.

I guess this will give the leaders less weight to throw around.

traditionalguy said...

Interesting contrast:

The Florida GOP wants its elections faster, while the North Carolina Dems want to suspend all elections to Congress until our problems have been corrected by obediance towaffluta Obama's plans for us.

The race is on To Finland Station. The ones who get there firstist with the mostist will take over.

.

Thorley Winston said...

Can the GOP "rulers" explain why the carved-outs be first?

I am not a “ruler*” but I think it’s just one of those ugly political compromises that get made. No real principle behind it other than it was something that they felt that they had to agree to.

* But when the beta testing for my Weather Dominator™ and Mass Device™ are completed, that will likely change.

Delayna said...

NDS:

I have never been there, but my generic advice for food on road trips is:

Know what county you are in at all times.

Read the licence plates. Eat where the locals eat.

WV: blegible. I try, but I don't type too well.

pm317 said...

I wonder what Ann thinks of Drudge's headline and more importantly the picture he has of Obama and Cain right now.

X said...

Gov. Bev Perdue is doing it wrong tradguy. She's supposed to burn down her statehouse first.

blake said...

The current system is kind of arcane.

Set a date by which people must announce their candidacy. Say, November of the previous year.

Hold an election. Eliminate half.

A few months later, hold another election to eliminate the half remaining.

Then maybe the month or two after that, do it again.

You should be able to have your final election in May or June, giving your candidate ample time to campaign.

This way, at each point, the voters get to choose their preferred candidate, and somebody who's always a third placer doesn't suddenly win the nom based on votes being split.

Do it nationwide. Do it electronically. Do it privately.

No public cost, minimal private cost, the party decides who gets to vote (and they could charge a fee to cover the cost), and the pandering and influence peddling is greatly reduced.

Oh, wait, that's probably a bug not a feature.

ricpic said...

Hey tradguy, I thought towaffluta was hiawatha's twin sister. No?

Roger J. said...

Wow--thanks to the person that mentioned Alabama Jacks-I cut my fishing teeth out of Alabama jacks in the 1950s before the new card sound bridge went in--It was a genuine backwater fishing camp--rented boats and sold bait (live shrimp, 3 dozen for a dollar--Looks like it has gone upscale.

Miss Carol--you analysis of Floridas role in 19th centure elections rather took me aback, primarily because Florida was not a state until the 1840s--but do carry on--dont have facts? make em up

Florida statehood 1845--JQ Adams, and Andy Jackson: 1820s and 30s

WTF are you talking about?

traditionalguy said...

ripic...That was either a secret code inserted for wikileaks surveillance, or it was a test run on an insult being designed for J.

Damn WV.

A. Shmendrik said...

When heading through South Florida on the way to Monroe County and the Keys, do yourself a favor and stop at Anthony's Coal Fired Pizza It's fantabulous!

ndspinelli said...

A Shmendrik, Thanks for the pizza lead. I love pizza but our male friend meeting us down there obsesses on pizza. He's from KC but unlike most people who think the pizza they grew up on is the best[I'm sure folks in Waterloo,Ia think they have the best pizza], he loves all kinds.

BJM said...

What difference does it make? In reality, the MSM will select the candidate who least endangers the Progressive agenda.

That should not give Obama supporters much as comfort as one might think it would.

Joe said...

Taxdollars shouldn't be used for internal party elections.

This actually varies by jurisdiction. In some jurisdictions, the local government is reimbursed for the cost, in others the local government pays all and in others it's somewhere in the middle.

In some locales, the primary is set to coincide with other elections, defraying much of the cost to the parties.

Other places use the caucus system.

The larger point is that if you want to change this for your county (or city), it's feasible.

Scott M said...

The larger point is that if you want to change this for your county (or city), it's feasible.

Taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for larger points.

Leland said...

I have an idea, let's order primary by a "debt per capita" rank. The state with the lowest DPC or largest "surplus per capita" goes first. If that's too simple, complicate with a formula that includes "federal taxes paid per capita" (earlier for higher number) and "federal appropriations per capita" (later for higher number).

SGT Ted said...

I'm still trying to figure out why a bunch of subsidy farmers in Iowa get first crack at picking the Presidential nominees.

Steven said...

Sure, the parties can refuse to seat the delegates. The state can then modify its ballot access rules so that the winner of its state primary automatically gets the party's line on the state ballot, if the state's delegates were not seated at the party's national convention.

If choosing to enforce a party rule against early primaries means risking confusion that could cause the party to lose a state's electoral votes, what party would choose to enforce the rule?

S said...

In a national primary, money, establishment connections, and name recognition would be more important and the ability to relate to people one-on-one and in small groups would be less important, as would stamina. I can't decide whether or not that would be an improvement.

If we stick with the state-by-state system, I'd like to see the formula for number of delegates per state reward going later, probably with bigger penalties for bigger states and with the reward for moving back a month more valuable toward the beginning of the election period than toward the end. I wouldn't give any state a particular date - they can choose between more delegates by going later and more "personal" attention by going earlier.

S said...

If Florida chose to be even more of an electoral laughing-stock by deliberately putting on the ballot a candidate who is no longer running, how would they decide what electoral voters would be assigned to that candidate? Or would that ballot choice be associated with "throw our electoral votes in a ditch and set them on fire"?

Joe said...

Taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for larger points.

Then change the system and quit bitching about it.

Steven said...

S, your question never comes up, because Florida never actually puts someone who's out of the race on the ballot.

1) Candidate A, who won the Florida delegates, can get nominated whether or not the Florida delegates are admitted.

2) Candidate A, who won the Florida delegates, can't get nominated whether or not the Florida delegates are admitted. Candidate B's delegates have a majority no matter what.

3) Candidate A, who won the Florida delegates, would be the national nominee if the Florida delegates were seated. If they are not, Candidate B will be the national nominee.

In case 1, it doesn't matter whether they get admitted or not, the Florida on-the-line nominee will match the national nominee. So, come the convention, they're admitted, since it doesn't mean anything material and you don't want to offend Florida.

In case 2, Candidate B doesn't want A showing up on the ballot. Therefore, since it doesn't threaten his nomination anyway, he has his delegates admit the Florida delegates anyway in order to keep Candidate A off the ballot.

In case 3, the actual nomination is a matter of dispute. In which case, why would Candidate A not be running? Either a brokered compromise comes out of the convention that includes a seating of the Florida delegates, or the disputed nomination is a huge political issue all the way through the general election anyway, with lawsuits in all fifty states over who gets the Republican line.

gadfly said...

I agree with Don Surber who writes"

"On behalf of the Florida Association of Broadcasters, whose members no doubt need the revenue from the barrage of ads that come with an early primary, I say stuff it, Reince Priebus, and let Florida be Florida. To prevail in November, Republicans need Florida. Do not piss off the Floridians."

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