August 22, 2010

Obama's approval numbers in the swing states.

Where it really counts.

32 comments:

New "Hussein" Ham said...

People love Barack Obama. He's a great guy with a wonderful family, and by voting for him, we've proven that we've moved beyond race in America.

Americans, however, hate his Socialist policies. And he's kind of an idiot - he has no grasp of what is required to repair our economy.

Nice enough fellow. Horrible President.

Chase said...

But the real story isn't the national number, it's Obama's approval and disapproval in key swing states where competitive elections are taking place. Those are the numbers that have the potential to sway the congressional majorities when voters head to the polls in November.


And yet the 2 best handicappers of the last 20 years - Charlie Cook and Michael Barone - are already saying that the House is definitely going Republican.

Which means this article is a nice piece of false hope for the "the will of the American people be damned" Democrats.

The Drill SGT said...

I agree with Chase. I remember some stat recently that 45 Demcratic Congresscritters are sittin in seats for districts that went for McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004.


They are toast...


PS; A recent poll found that in Illinois, an Obama endorement had a negative impact on a candidate. Illinois...

Clyde said...

I love how the article gives it's "grain of salt" warning about Rasmussen, despite the fact that the Rasmussen polls were better predictors of the results of past elections than those of the other pollsters. I found it interesting that they picked some unknown polling group that shows 58% of Minnesotans still approving of the president's job performance. When on poll is that much of an outlier, you have wonder about their methodology and accuracy.

Lisa said...

Obama is incompetent and has failed to help the American people. I don't think we can afford to re-elect him but I have no faith in the ability of the American people to vote against him knowing they will be called racist for doing so.

Jason (the commenter) said...

Chase: Which means this article is a nice piece of false hope for the "the will of the American people be damned" Democrats.

You clearly didn't look at the numbers. They listed the swing states by decreasing Obama approval rates. And his endorsement looks like a liability in 11 of the 18!

Pogo said...

I would suggest that the high Minnesota numbers are true, because at least 58% of Minnesotans are idiot socialists.

Thoma Sowell has said the 2010 election is the most important one in our lifetimes. If Obama is not stopped now, there is no way to undo the damage of his policies.

And he noted that even as destructive as Obama has been, almost half of the electorate still approves, so that is a very bad sign.

If economic failure is not enough to discredit the socialists, I have my doubts that US citizens still have the brains to make the right choice.

It's depressing as hell to be a Minnesotan. It's even more depressing to see what Americans approve of. What would it take to get Democrats to see they've made a terrible mistake?

Nothing, that's what. We are so screwed.

Sixty Grit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
America's Politico said...

I am totally surprised that people here are wasting their time, energy, and money on this issue. Here me now, believe me later. There will not be any change. Obama/Biden will win again in 2012. GOP has a chance - yes, a chance - in 2016 provided they start to nurture ASAP future leadership. My free advice (and I charge consultancy when I give advice to candidates) is to forget Palin, Jindal, Romney, Huckabee, and so on. Focus on Christie, Ryan, and other hidden gems. Given them chances (one after another) to come to the public eye. Focus on new leadership.

N.b.: Say goodbye to Gingrich forever. He ain't coming back, even in his dreams.

ricpic said...

Ohio is the ultimate bellwether state so his 45% approval 54% disapproval there does not bode well for the lizard.

Sixty Grit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
michaele said...

One can only hope:

As Missouri goes, so goes the nation.

ricpic said...

Yeah, America's Politico, let's all forget Palin. You know how I know you don't know your ass from a hole in the ground? Because Palin utterly totally terrifies the Left. Ya know, your team. Now go play in traffic, weasel.

Lucien said...

If we get to the Fall of 2012 and:

1) The economy is improving (on its own, but who cares);

2) US combat troops are out of Iraq (and it has not fallen apart);

3) Afghanistan has stabilized and troops are being withdrawn; and

4) Obama and his party have passed "historic" health care and financial services reforms,

then doesn't he win?

If the big things go right, who will care about: mosques, Shirley Sherrod, Skip Gates, church attendance, etc.?

These aren't the issues that really push voters one way or the other.

Sixty Grit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jason (the commenter) said...

ricpic: ...let's all forget Palin...

I wish we could. I'm sick of politician/celebrities. I want dull as dishwater competence. Any accountants running for President?

edutcher said...

Interesting MN and MI are regarded as swing states. MN has been giving the country Socialists for better than 60 years. MI may be Conservative out in the boonies, but the urban centers are the ones that keep sending people like Carl Levin to Congress and they far outnumber any Conservatives that may also get there.

America's Politico said...

I am totally surprised that people here are wasting their time, energy, and money on this issue. Here me now, believe me later. There will not be any change. Obama/Biden will win again in 2012. GOP has a chance - yes, a chance - in 2016 provided they start to nurture ASAP future leadership. My free advice (and I charge consultancy when I give advice to candidates) is to forget Palin, Jindal, Romney, Huckabee, and so on. Focus on Christie, Ryan, and other hidden gems. Given them chances (one after another) to come to the public eye. Focus on new leadership.

While I think Miss Sarah's future is still up for grabs, I have to agree otherwise. It's the Young Turks like Christie that are the wave of the future.

Ritmo Brasileiro said...

Because Palin utterly totally terrifies the Left.

Palin only has the base. What the left finds terrifying is how ignorant and unqualified a candidate the Kristol/McCain/neocon wing of the GOP would bother to float.

Stop projecting your fear of Obama onto the left and the center's rejection of Palin. Obama could always get the center. Palin can't even locate it from her helicopter. Maybe if she wrote directions on her hand...

TosaGuy said...

All a GOP candidate has to do to win in 2012 is win the states that Bush won in 2008. No need to waste time fantasizing about MN, WI, PA or MI switching from Blue to Red. Obama is not going to win IN, NC, VA, OH or FL again...or that single electoral vote in NE

c3 said...

-2012 is two years away. Much can happen in the interim

-these numbers are similar to GWB's in 2004. Popularity and elections are related but different. His opponent in '12 will have some influence. (Who is the Republican John Kerry?)

-this is all fantasy football. Made up competition based on real numbers.
They still play the games on Sunday

EDH said...

In related news, Marsha Coakley leads Scott Brown by 15%.

Dana said...

Take note: Rasmussen typically gives Obama marginally higher disapproval ratings, nationally, than other polling firms do.

Atlantic writer Chris Good either needs to show evidence for this claim, or admit that he is attempting to sway readers with doubt toward those states with Rasmussen polling numbers. otherwise I'm going to pretty much write off his opinion as just that. And those are a dime a dozen.

ricpic said...

I'm projecting my fears am I, Montana? Ooh, psychobabble. Impressive.

Ritmo Brasileiro said...

Pray tell, O Wise Ricpic: By way of what explanation (if not a psychological mechanism) would you think that Palin has a chance in hell of winning the center?

Joe said...

Never fear, the Republicans will blow it. If they win, they'll blow it there.

The horrible truth is that most Republicans are simply tax and spend Democrats but with a different laundry list of spending.

Paul said...

To paraphrase River in "Serenity", "It's going to get worse, much much worse" at least for Obama's numbers in ANY state.

In the next few days the houseing numbers are going to be released and it will be bad.

Later unemployment numbers will be revised to creep toward 10 percent.

Iran will go ape.

North Korea will do another stunt.

The economy will go no where... fast.

And like Jimmy Carter, Obama's only answer will be to blame a) Bush, b) the Democrats in Congress (is he crazy??) c) blame Bush again.

And people will get fed up even more. Even in the 'swing' states.

Chase said...

Obama is not going to win IN, NC, VA, OH or FL again...or that single electoral vote in NE

Actually, whether Obama wins in those states really depends on only one thing: the Hispanic vote in each of state. In 4 of those 5 states, Hispanic voters will increase by more than 7% of the electorate over their percentage in 2008. Either Republicans will get smart about immigration reform and how they approach it or they will remain beholden to the extreme voices who will piss off those voters who will have enough votes to sway it for Obama.

So to the illegal immigration hardliners: how's that workin for you the last 4 years, since Bush's part went down?

Answer: it's not. And hardlining it will never work. Don't screw it up for the rest of America.

Fen said...

So to the illegal immigration hardliners: how's that workin for you the last 4 years, since Bush's part went down?

Gee, enforce immigration law or watch our local schools, hospitals and neighborhoods fall apart

VS

Elect more elitist out-of-touch Beltway insiders that will sell out our principles so they can appear "moderate" and get invites out to Martha's Vineyard.

Its not a tough call. A nation that cant control its borders is not going to last long anyway.

And we were already promised enforcement in exchange for reform back in the 80s. Baited and switched. Not falling for it again.

So you know what you can do with your support of immigration "reform"

Fen said...

Ritmo: What the left finds terrifying is how ignorant and unqualified a candidate as -

as Obama?

*snicker*

I cant believe you went there.

We're expected to trust the Left's "judgement" after they put an unqualified incompetent Diversity Hire in the Oval? You really expect us to believe they are "terrified" of GOP picks they deem unqualified?

To paraphrase Obama, its time for the people who made this mess to shut up and grab a broom.

Fen said...

Ritmo: Obama could always get the center.

More laughs. Obama has lost the center because they now see through all his Hopey Change bullshit.

Keep em coming Ritmo. Hysterical.

Kristian said...

Minnesota
California -- Seriously, a swing state?
New Hampshire
Connecticut -- Swing State?
Michigan
Illinois: 49% approve Home state
Washington -- Swing State?
Wisconsin
Ohio First of the commonly identified swing state

Be honest, as a democrat, if you lose any state on that list before Ohio (well, New Hampshire is odd and small, and so is a good candidate for an outlyer), you are toast in a national election.

Chase said...

Fen,

Thanks for the "more of the sdame" answer.

No one wants illegal immigration to prosper here except:

Come on Fen, tell us who wants it to prosper. We want to hear your explanation.

This could have been solved under Bush, but the Rush idiots and the "what part of illegal don't you understand" crowd are the ones too stuborn, stupid, and selfish to have realistically done anything about it when they could have. The window is gone. And any degradation of America because of illegal immigration lays squarely at the feet of those very cowards and Mr. limbaugh and his fellow short-sighted but protected-in-their-cocoons-of-wealth leaders. They patted themselves on the back for their adherence to principal, when all it was was adherence to denial of reality.

That is the group of cowards who's grandchildren will be ashamed of. I am ashamed of them now.