August 18, 2006

Wisconsin polls.

A new poll shows 48% of Wisconsin voters favor the constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage. 40% are opposed, and 12% undecided.

More striking is the new poll in the governor's race:
A day after a poll by a Madison TV station... showed Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle with a 10-point lead on Republican challenger Mark Green, a new poll released today showed only a one-point lead.
What's happening there? Green just started running an ad, which we talked about on the radio this morning.

35 comments:

Alan said...

I'd "listen" but I have no desire to load real audio on my computer. So what points does the ad make?

Ann Althouse said...

You don't want to lead RealAudio, but you want me to type out the text? I don't aim to please that much.

elliot said...

What's happening is that polls are BS.

The science of statistics is fine and dandy, but anyone who has ever been involved in research knows that the answers you get depend a great deal on the questions you ask.

Alan said...

I didn't mean for you to transcribe the audio. Just note the points in the ad that you think are making the difference in the new poll numbers. :)

Henry said...

You couldn't pay me to load a Real product on my system. Does the station every provide transcripts?

Simon said...

I wonder what percentage of those who said they were undecided actually meant "I've made up my mind, I'm against it, but I'm embarassed about it because I normally vote Democrat and I consider myself to be liberal, but on this issue, I just think it's wrong." More particularly, I wonder if it's more than 2.1%

JohnF said...

For alan, you can watch the ad (I am guessing it's the one Ann means) on Green's website, here:

http://www.votemarkgreen.com/

I thought it was a cute ad. He take's Doyle's assertion that he is "extreme" and has his family tell how extreme he is ("extremely good rebounder" says his son with a basketball, etc.)

Green comes across as normal and likeable. What more could you ask an ad do?

Pastor_Jeff said...

Ann,

You point out in the interview that Green doesn't have much name recognition. It seems perfectly unerstandable that people know where they stand on gay marriage, but don't know where they stand on Mark Green.

In Missouri in 2004, 72% voted to define marriage as the union of one man and one woman. The Republican gubernatorial candidate got 51%.

Why would the two necessarily be conflated?

SippicanCottage said...
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Bissage said...

And a liar!

Alan said...

Thanks JohnF. It's a great ad...casts him as a likable guy.

I wouldn't vote for him, though. Not that I can since I live in Florida. But it's become clear to me since I'm not a social conservative that voting for them would be against my belief in limited government. And in the renewed conservative spirit of federalism I can't vote that way in local and state elections. :)

Art said...

One of the polls (the one showing Doyle up ten points) is an independent study paid for by WISC TV.

The other is done by Strategic Vision, a polling firm which normally services Republican candidates. I don't know if Green's campaign or another organization has hired them or if they're doing this out of the goodness of their heart.

You can decide which one has more credibility. Doyle's rating is about the same in both. Green's elevated rating in the strategic vision poll is likely due to pushing undecideds.

Undecided voters normal break for the challenger in an election with an incumbent but to win, Green would have to get almost all of them.

Richard Dolan said...

I agree with everything Sippican has to say, after having run his comments through the DaVerdi Code converter to figure out what he meant. Except this: "all operas are pretty much the same anyway."

Wozzeck the same as Figaro? Time for the ear wax remover. Or a new set of speakers. Naturally, Sippican should Blame Bush (no one east of Lake Michigan even knows who this Doyle guy is) for his troubles.

Icepick said...

Alan wrote: But it's become clear to me since I'm not a social conservative that voting for them would be against my belief in limited government.

Brother, you said a mouthful....

And Alan, which used car salesman are you going to vote for down here? (I'm also in Florida.)

Palladian said...

"The other is done by Strategic Vision, a polling firm which normally services Republican candidates."

Sorry, the words "polling" and "services" and "Republican" are all too close together in that statement. It must be because I'm a smutty minded homosexual.

AJ Lynch said...

Hey Richard- where can I get one of those DeVerdi converters? Ebay maybe? I don't like feeling dumb when I read SC's posts.

JorgXMcKie said...

Polls before the election in 2004 in Michigan showed the anti-gay marriage proposal winning only narrowly. Like most other states, the actual result was a blowout in favor.

Oregon passed a gay marriage ban. Is Wisconsin more liberal than Oregon?

My guess is that you're getting the phenomenon where people lie about their intentions to sound more like what the PC news tells them they should be doing.

Let's face it, no gay marriage ban has lost yet. What is it, 18-0 and counting?

I should point out that I'm personally very much in favor of at least laws regularizing the relationships between gay couples and could support some type of civil agreements. I understand why many are against gay 'marriage' and even civil unions or whatever. They have real reasons, I just don't agree with them in all cases.

And as for the gov polls, I couldn't find any internals for the WISC poll, so it's pretty much useless to me.

Paul Zrimsek said...

Extremists like Mark Green are the only thing standing between us and The Marriage of Figaro to Wozzeck.

Ann Althouse said...

For those who haven't listened to the radio show but are checking out the Green ad, Rothschild (the other guest, the on-the-left guest) said the ad was terrible because it called attention to the attack on him (that he's "extreme"). I said the ad was all about gaining name recognition and getting people to think he's a good person. (But I also thought it was reminiscent of the famous Goldwater line: "Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.")

Henry said...

It is a good commercial (thanks JohnF), though I wouldn't want to see it more than once.

Green's Web site has a fairly typical "Fact Check" area to counterattack Doyle, but the commercial is a better blanket innoculation.

I would say to Rothschild that calling attention to Doyle's attacks this way is pretty effective judo. In summary: "If Doyle thinks this is extreme, why listen to anything else he says?"

Sippican, your theory needs to take into account the fact that verde rhymes with merde and merde sounds like "married" in a midwestern accent. It must be code to Green's down-home supporters!

MadisonMan said...

I've only heard snippets of the ad -- I think on WPR news one morning, a story about the extreme thing. But it reminded my of early Feingold ads.

That said, I do think Green has extreme views on some things. Abortion, for example. Accepting favors from Jack Abramoff. That kind of thing.

SippicanCottage said...
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Pastor_Jeff said...

Sip -- Aldis lamp; that's the thing. As in, "Wuthering Heights in Sempahore" and "Julius Casesar on Aldis lamp."

And kudos on a great "Wag the Dog" reference.

SippicanCottage said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Richard Dolan said...

AJ: The only place to get an authentic DaVerdi Code converter is a shop on Front Street, in Marion, MA. Ask for Yrogerg. He'll be able to help you.

SippicanCottage said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Alan said...

Icepick,

Gallagher's ads have assured Crist my primary vote. Maybe Gallagher will prove once and for all you don't have to be pro-life to win a GOP primary. I'm voting against Randall Terry in favor of Jim King (yep, that whack-job Terry is running for the State Senate seat for my area). I'm not sure if I'll vote for Harris or the Admiral.

Come the general election my vote will be up for grabs. Though I'll probably vote against any candidate Bob Graham campaigns for. Recently, Graham reminded me on why I hate the Dems here in Florida. In an ad Graham said the Democratic candidate kept the GOP from "gutting Social Security" while in congress. Graham shows no compunction for telling blatant, in your face lies. IMO, Graham represents everything that's wrong with the Dems here in FL...all we get is an avalanche of BS, like the butterfly ballot crap in the 2000 election.

I wish there were a sane third party.

SippicanCottage said...

Richard Dolan-
Don't reveal the secret knock.

Pastor_Jeff said...

Sip --

No, but Kudos is a chocolate bar.

Say no more.

Jim Gust said...

Green's commercial and the longer piece on his website both have a Ned Lamont vibe to them, in style if not in substance. The "I'm just like you, not a professional politician" or a political insider message is a key element of both.

MadisonMan said...

The "I'm just like you, not a professional politician" or a political insider message is a key element of both.

Yes, regular people like me often shmooze with Abramoff. Riiight. Both Mark Green and Jim Doyle are professional politicians, regardless of their ads' vibes, and I hope Wisconsin voters know that.

Ruth Anne Adams said...

Q: What do this blog's hostess and Jim Doyle have in common?

A: They both taught me in law school.

Dean said...

Ann, your collegue in the political science department, Charles Franklin, regularly dissects state and national polls.

A student at Marquette takes a quick look, at polls that are similar and different.

John(classic) said...

I think those that oppose the gay marriage amendment are making a mistake by focusing on the second clause and arguing that it forbuds a civil union.

Why? Most people don't understand the argument, but they do understand that they are ducking the main question. The conclusion is that one side can't argue the isue on its merits.

Much better to argue things like "Wouldn't marriage. committment, and a stable relationship be better than one night stands?

Icepick said...

Alan, thanks for the response. Personally I've reached a point where I don't think I'm going to bother voting in the primary. And the choices are so bad that I'm not sure I'll vote in the general election either. It's just that bad.

It's very interesting how well Crist is doing. And it's been kind of shocking to watch Gallagher become unhinged as he falls farther behind in the polls. I expect he'll be pulling out the old Sledge-O-Matic any day now.