Put the Laura factor into the equation and the answer is obvious: Bush will pick Gonzales.
Found while Googling to see if anyone else was saying that: "Who influences George W. Bush?" by Howard Fineman. This is the relevant passage:
Bush has been shaped and surrounded by strong women. As he himself has said, he has had a series of them to “mother-hen me.” They include Barbara Bush, Laura Bush, Karen Hughes, Condoleeza Rice and Harriet Miers, now the White House counsel but for many years before that, his personal lawyer. (Give his daughters a few more years to mature, and they will perform the same function; they already serve as jovially merciless style critics.)And since Bush is replacing a woman on the Court, there is all the more reason to pay attention to what the women in his life are saying to him. And, unlike Finemen, I think those daughters are telling him plenty.
What does this have to do with the Supreme Court? Plenty: as far as I know, none of these women is “pro-life” in the strict sense – certainly Barbara and Laura Bush are not. The president has said that the country is not ready to see the overturn of Roe V. Wade. Maybe what he meant was: My Mother Hens aren’t ready. Would he want to defy them with his Supreme Court choice now?